Share Picks 2020

all about the mane wrote: »

Not too familiar with Elliot waves but would I be right in saying, if C goes higher than 4 then the pattern no longer holds and it may be a change of direction?

No, I don't think so. ABC do not matter much.

from wiki:

Wave 2 never retraces more than 100% of wave 1.
Wave 3 cannot be the shortest of the three impulse waves, namely waves 1, 3 and 5.
Wave 4 does not overlap with the price territory of wave 1, except in the rare case of a diagonal triangle formation.

look how far C wave drops in the below example (in the opposite, a bull trend):
It nearly touches the (2) price point.

all about the mane

voluntary wrote: »

Well, trends change, usually when fundamentals change. The chart just shows that we're still in a technical bear market and the recent rally does not end the bear market but rather confirms it.

Not too familiar with Elliot waves but would I be right in saying, if C goes higher than 4 then the pattern no longer holds and it may be a change of direction?

Well, trends change, usually when fundamentals change. The chart just shows that we're still in a technical bear market and the recent rally does not end the bear market but rather confirms it.

voluntary wrote: »

I tried to draw it a few other ways and they all end up in the bear confirmation.

I think this would be something you have in mind:

Still, all the criteria checkboxes ticked. Let's see what reality brings us.

Yes , I use a couple of technicals with fundamentals , the QE has made a mark and with the slowing of cases in Italy may be causing the bounce , if the bear market is to continue it will be pushed by the deteriorating situation in the US which could happen later this week.

Static M.e. wrote: »

Hi Voluntary,

Would you minding dumping it down a shade for me please. What is the chart showing you?

Thank you.

Sure,
There's a very short video on the page below explaining it.

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/technical/111401.asp

coolshannagh28 wrote: »

Yes I use it albeit it can be difficult to figure out the waves, as in the 2 and 4 waves on the chart could have interpreted in real time as just the 2 wave , but the a, b , c extension proved the graph correct in retrospect.

I tried to draw it a few other ways and they all end up in the bear confirmation.

I think this would be something you have in mind:

Still, all the criteria checkboxes ticked. Let's see what reality brings us.

all about the mane

Took a long in natgas this morning. Didn't wait for confirmation so was a bit of a punt but working nicely so far. Covers my loss in USDCAD last night

https://elliottwave-forecast.com/news/elliott-wave-view-sp-500-spx-recovery-progress/

Static M.e.

voluntary wrote: »

Elliott himself would be proud of me now. Such a chart is so rare.

Hi Voluntary,

Would you minding dumping it down a shade for me please. What is the chart showing you?

Thank you.

voluntary wrote: »

In theory, the corrective C wave should be the last corrective wave confirming the bear market (at least in the time scope surrounding the chart). Whether this is right we'll find out soon enough.

wiki has a page on Elliot waves theory too
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elliott_wave_principle

Wave C in bull markets (so the opposite to this one):

Yes I use it albeit it can be difficult to figure out the waves, as in the 2 and 4 waves on the chart could have interpreted in real time as just the 2 wave , but the a, b , c extension proved the graph correct in retrospect.

In theory, the corrective C wave should be the last corrective wave confirming the bear market (at least in the time scope surrounding the chart). Whether this is right we'll find out soon enough.

wiki has a page on Elliot waves theory too
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elliott_wave_principle

Wave C in bull markets (so the opposite to this one):

Wave C: Prices move impulsively lower in five waves. Volume picks up, and by the third leg of wave C, almost everyone realizes that a bear market is firmly entrenched. Wave C is typically at least as large as wave A and often extends to 1.618 times wave A or beyond.

cnocbui

manonboard wrote: »

As a person you seem to be very into the technicals, is there any course you'd suggest a person could take to learn more about them. I look but have no ability to discern crap from ok.

You might find something relevant here: https://b-ok.cc/s/elliott%20waves

voluntary wrote: »

Elliott himself would be proud of me now. Such a chart is so rare.

Good chart , classically the next wave would be down ?

manonboard

voluntary wrote: »

Elliott himself would be proud of me now. Such a chart is so rare.

As a person you seem to be very into the technicals, is there any course you'd suggest a person could take to learn more about them. I look but have no ability to discern crap from ok.

Elliott himself would be proud of me now. Such a chart is so rare.

Rainmann

Jesper wrote: »

I like this. Especially since they bought Costa Coffee. I think it's a good avenue for expansion.
My safe bets... (not a trader - looking for safe long term)
+ Disney - everyone seems to be signing up to the service.
+ Baidu/Alibaba
+ Microsoft/Adobe/VM Ware
+ Flutter (PaddyPower), Ryanair (below €8), Kingspan
+ I'm researching ETF's now.

Disney, Microsoft, Flutter, and Ryanair are all ones I have my eye one too. I think we should see more attractive prices over the next couple of weeks.

Jim2007

Mad_maxx wrote: »

Not just a case of being over exposed to a niche sector

Using one of jims previous red line criterias

Those insurance companies are micro caps.

He dismisses every iseq company due to market cap yet here he is recommending companies in America that are no bigger

Check out first American financial, smaller than smurfit kappa

"beware of Greeks bearing gifts"

That guy doesn't share useful information, in fact he makes a virtue of not sharing

Well I at least I know now why don't do well at the homework....

I give you the sector, tell you it is a mono line insurance and the best you can come up with is the bit player....

Love this

$attachment.php?attachmentid=507644&d=1585581097[\img]$

littlemac1980 wrote: »

Aim up 30%

Edit: Up 40% now, anyone any idea why?

Up 50% now after weathering a couple bouts of profit taking.

Up 65% now

FYI my edits are about 10 mins apart. It’s fairly rocketing!

And now dropping at much the same rate so might be back where we started pretty soon lol

Shedite27

littlemac1980 wrote: »

Aim up 30%

Edit: Up 40% now, anyone any idea why?

Up 50% now after weathering a couple bouts of profit taking.

Up 65% now

FYI my edits are about 10 mins apart. It’s fairly rocketing!

Got out at $3, bought at $5 but was hovering around the $2 mark for too long. Far more interesting things to buy these days IMO.

Mad_maxx

Bob Harris wrote: »

Would having such a heavy proportion of your portfolio invested in one specific sub-sector not go against conventional financial advice?

Interesting companies btw - they have it all sewn up for themselves.

If the US is now in recession would that not reduce house buying and negate the need to buy their insurance though?

Not just a case of being over exposed to a niche sector

Using one of jims previous red line criterias

Those insurance companies are micro caps.

He dismisses every iseq company due to market cap yet here he is recommending companies in America that are no bigger

Check out first American financial, smaller than smurfit kappa

"beware of Greeks bearing gifts"

That guy doesn't share useful information, in fact he makes a virtue of not sharing

Nemeses2050

Bob Harris wrote: »

Who would be your top 3 picks of good companies given the current situation?

Energy and Metal stocks may not be favourites now, however it's only a matter of time they'll bounce back...

BP, RDS, BHP, RIO they're great value for me
and the likes of Ryanair, CRH, ABP foods, MSFT etc... Apple/Google are great too, but don't see much upside in them compared to others.

Cruiseliners/American Airlines are burning cash and they don't have much dough, but knowing the man in charge there, he'll pump in more billions.

ELM327

all about the mane wrote: »

Tesla are the new Apple. They will be 1000 dollars eventually. I have no doubt.

Perhaps in 5 years time
But you could make much more money intra day trading TSLA (and others) than by buying TSLA at the wrong price

Jesper

Rainmann wrote: »

How do people feel about Coca Cola? A solid performer over the years (especially when you factor in their Dividend, currently around 4%). Strong balance sheet too and a great brand name.

I like this. Especially since they bought Costa Coffee. I think it's a good avenue for expansion.
My safe bets... (not a trader - looking for safe long term)
+ Disney - everyone seems to be signing up to the service.
+ Baidu/Alibaba
+ Microsoft/Adobe/VM Ware
+ Flutter (PaddyPower), Ryanair (below €8), Kingspan
+ I'm researching ETF's now.

Aim up 30%

Edit: Up 40% now, anyone any idea why?

Up 50% now after weathering a couple bouts of profit taking.

Up 65% now

FYI my edits are about 10 mins apart. It’s fairly rocketing!