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Property Market 2020

Bigmac1euro

Maybe an article for “Property Market 2020”
Anyhow looks like developers are going to start strangling supply in order to keep prices in check.

Worth a read anyway.

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/developers-now-fear-flooding-market-as-house-prices-in-decline-38820967.html

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garhjw

cd76 wrote: »

The ones who say it won't fall are either Sellers or Estate Agents.

It has crashed already. YES !!!!

Great time to buy in about a years time.
Loads of properties and Estate Agents on the floor.
Time to put the boot in and get a nice redbrick in D6 or D3 @ 2000 prices (~ -40% on today's prices).
Happy Days for a cautious unhurried buyer.
Take your time, strike in about 10 to 18 months times.

Wow. Everyone should listen to this guy. He really really knows what he is talking about.

Zenify

beauf wrote: »

How does that compare to china.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/03/25/europe-china-us-economic-recovery-v-coronavirus/

Im not trying to prove the situation is bad. Im hoping to god we could bounce back in a "V". IMO without any medical breakthrough thats not possible. Since that article was written 5 days ago theres now been lots about Asian Countries having a second wave. I work in tourism, I'm currently unemployed, I'd love to be back to work. Let's hope I'm wrong.

ZX7R

Zenify wrote: »

It's over 12pc now and we are only 2 weeks into this. 300,000 just applied for covid payment. That's 7.7pc of the labour force of 2.3million. That's ontop of 4.5pc already unemployed. Maybe my figure are wrong? I think it's going to get a lot worse before it starts getting better.

The 12% does not include the unemployed before the restrictions were interduced.
According to new figures released by Irish brokers Davy and economists that is what they are currently predicting on there current knowledge.
These figures are based on our current restrictions been reduced by mid May.
And also based on the fact that our exports industry is not been as affected by our restrictions as previously taught.
I sucribe to there news letter,it has much more information than being reported in the media.

Reversal

ZX7R wrote: »

Seen as your posting on two different treads with the same thing I reply to you here
You're estimate in price reduction has already been revised ,new reports released today see the 20%price drop that was been forecasted been reduced to a mere 5% and a leveling off , your unemployment figures have also been revised ,if Ireland can reduce it's lock down by mid May worse case of unemployment there after of 12%

LOL. Opinion aside, the facts tell us that prices already dropped by 5% in Dublin during 2019. So that trend will remain unchanged? This crisis, the job losses, lending restrictions and the impending recession are to have no impact then?

beauf

Zenify wrote: »

It's over 12pc now and we are only 2 weeks into this. 300,000 just applied for covid payment. That's 7.7pc of the labour force of 2.3million. That's ontop of 4.5pc already unemployed. Maybe my figure are wrong? I think it's going to get a lot worse before it starts getting better.

How does that compare to china.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/03/25/europe-china-us-economic-recovery-v-coronavirus/

beauf

cd76 wrote: »

...
- Rental demand will flop as lots of people working in Google and Linkedin and Facebook have gone back to Europe. A lot of these won't return....

So lots of jobs there. Isn't that why people flocked here in the first place.

Zenify

ZX7R wrote: »

unemployment there after of 12%

It's over 12pc now and we are only 2 weeks into this. 300,000 just applied for covid payment. That's 7.7pc of the labour force of 2.3million. That's ontop of 4.5pc already unemployed. Maybe my figure are wrong? I think it's going to get a lot worse before it starts getting better.

ZX7R

cd76 wrote: »

Anyone who buys now is crazy. Pull out of any "Sale Agreed".
I was talking to EA guys in Sherrys and DNG today and they are getting calls since Friday with people pulling out of Sale Agreed.
Market has disappeared overnight.

- Loads of rentals on Daft with prices plummeting
- Rental demand will flop as lots of people working in Google and Linkedin and Facebook have gone back to Europe. A lot of these won't return.
- Executors Sales will go up big time(especially in Dublin) as sadly older people will die due to Covid-19. So you'll see lots of properties in established areas like Rathgar, Terneure , Clontarf etc. So lots of bargains.
- Unemployment which is now less than 5% is estimated to increase to 30% and tail off to approx 25% next year.
- People laid off will have to sell once the Govt supports and any Mortgage "break" dries up.
- Market will go down by minimum of 30%
- Next year will see it continue to bottom out. Recovery will not come until mid to late 2022 and then it will be very slow.
- Don't believe anything an EA tells you about small impact or recovery. This is a big hit. Much bigger than the Financial crises of 2008.

Best of luck

Seen as your posting on two different treads with the same thing I reply to you here
You're estimate in price reduction has already been revised ,new reports released today see the 20%price drop that was been forecasted been reduced to a mere 5% and a leveling off , your unemployment figures have also been revised ,if Ireland can reduce it's lock down by mid May worse case of unemployment there after of 12%

cd76

The ones who say it won't fall are either Sellers or Estate Agents.

It has crashed already. YES !!!!

Great time to buy in about a years time.
Loads of properties and Estate Agents on the floor.
Time to put the boot in and get a nice redbrick in D6 or D3 @ 2000 prices (~ -40% on today's prices).
Happy Days for a cautious unhurried buyer.
Take your time, strike in about 10 to 18 months times.

cd76

Reversal wrote: »

So how could prices not drop. As a thought experiment, if nothing else changed and exemptions to CB rules were taken away, what would that do to prices. Now combine that to further restrictions and unemployment...

You're right the market has just collapsed.
Great time to buy in about a years time.
Loads of properties and Estate Agents on the floor.
Time to put the boot in and get a nice redbrick in D6 or D3 @ 2000 prices (~ -40% on today's prices).
Happy Days for a cautious unhurried buyer.
Take your time, strike in about 10 to 18 months times.

cd76

Donald Trump wrote: »

Well suppose that you were planning on upgrading before this and your old house was worth 400k and you were moving to a house worth 600k. You have savings on 200k to finance it.

If that house remains on the market (suppose executor sale), and all houses come down by 25%, then you are now moving from 300k to 450k.

You'd be mad not to move now if you were happy to move before. You can spend half of that saved 50k on coke and hookers and keep the rest for another rainy day.

Anyone who buys now is crazy. Pull out of any "Sale Agreed".
I was talking to EA guys in Sherrys and DNG today and they are getting calls since Friday with people pulling out of Sale Agreed.
Market has disappeared overnight.

- Loads of rentals on Daft with prices plummeting
- Rental demand will flop as lots of people working in Google and Linkedin and Facebook have gone back to Europe. A lot of these won't return.
- Executors Sales will go up big time(especially in Dublin) as sadly older people will die due to Covid-19. So you'll see lots of properties in established areas like Rathgar, Terneure , Clontarf etc. So lots of bargains.
- Unemployment which is now less than 5% is estimated to increase to 30% and tail off to approx 25% next year.
- People laid off will have to sell once the Govt supports and any Mortgage "break" dries up.
- Market will go down by minimum of 30%
- Next year will see it continue to bottom out. Recovery will not come until mid to late 2022 and then it will be very slow.
- Don't believe anything an EA tells you about small impact or recovery. This is a big hit. Much bigger than the Financial crises of 2008.

Best of luck

OttoPilot

ELM327 wrote: »

They would notionally make prices drop. Combine the restrictions on exemptions with LLs looking to leave the market and now the employment instability will cause at least stability in the price of housing

Can't see much dropping, at least not below 350-400k mark anyway

You list reasons why prices will drop in the first paragraph and then conclude they wont?

ELM327

Reversal wrote: »

So how could prices not drop. As a thought experiment, if nothing else changed and exemptions to CB rules were taken away, what would that do to prices. Now combine that to further restrictions and unemployment...

They would notionally make prices drop. Combine the restrictions on exemptions with LLs looking to leave the market and now the employment instability will cause at least stability in the price of housing

Can't see much dropping, at least not below 350-400k mark anyway

[Deleted User]

Augeo wrote: »

He didn't say that, he just said there'll be reduced lending.
Exemptions to CB rules etc will likely be gone etc. Money will still be given out but less of it and to less people.
Some professions/livelyhoods might be seen as preferable to lend to, which is always the case but in good times it's not so much a factor.

Correct, it was reported in The Sunday Times:

Bank of Ireland and Permanent TSB have begun turning down house-buyers seeking to borrow more than three-and-a-half times their earnings, in the first signs of how mortgage providers are reacting to the squeeze on earnings caused by the coronavirus crisis.

PTSB has issued a blanket ban from April 2 on all mortgage applications requiring an exemption from the Central Bank of Ireland’s lending rules. The rules require borrowers to have deposits of up to 20% and cap mortgages at three-and-a-half times their incomes. Exemptions are allowed for borderline applicants.

---

Bank of Ireland is still open for exemptions but has tightened its credit rules for first-time buyers looking to borrow more than three-and-a-half times income — the main source of exemption requests.

“There is pressure on some categories and we will keep our position under review as the situation evolves,” it said.

AIB said it was still accepting exemption requests at its three mortgage brands: AIB, EBS and Haven. Ulster Bank and KBC Bank said they dealt with exemptions on a case-by-case basis.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/past-six-days/2020-03-29/ireland/bank-of-ireland-and-ptsb-tighten-mortgage-rules-bsx308zdr

beauf

Augeo wrote: »

I'm sure prices will drop but number of sales will also drop.

Look at 2009 to 2012. Less lending, less mortgages given, less sales.

Kinda was the start (ish) of the housing crisis and chronic shortage.

[Deleted User]

Reversal wrote: »

So how could prices not drop...........

I'm sure prices will drop but number of sales will also drop.

Look at 2009 to 2012. Less lending, less mortgages given, less sales.

Reversal

Augeo wrote: »

He didn't say that, he just said there'll be reduced lending.
Exemptions to CB rules etc will likely be gone etc. Money will still be given out but less of it and to less people.
Some professions/livelyhoods might be seen as preferable to lend to, which is always the case but in good times it's not so much a factor.

So how could prices not drop. As a thought experiment, if nothing else changed and exemptions to CB rules were taken away, what would that do to prices. Now combine that to further restrictions and unemployment...

beauf

Reversal wrote: »

They know nothing, "sure people still need somewhere to live"

Reversal wrote: »

So even if we all get our jobs back tomorrow, we won't be able to buy for God knows how long?

I think a lot of people aren't joining the dots that selling and buying are intrinsically linked.

[Deleted User]

Reversal wrote: »

So even if we all get our jobs back tomorrow, we won't be able to buy for God knows how long?

He didn't say that, he just said there'll be reduced lending.
Exemptions to CB rules etc will likely be gone etc. Money will still be given out but less of it and to less people.
Some professions/livelyhoods might be seen as preferable to lend to, which is always the case but in good times it's not so much a factor.

Claw Hammer

Reversal wrote: »

So even if we all get our jobs back tomorrow, we won't be able to buy for God knows how long?

Pretty much the case.

enricoh

390k have applied for the dole in the last 2 weeks! Sweet Jesus, I don't think that includes the 40k creche workers either. and some people on here maintain that prices won't fall!

https://news.google.com/articles/CAIiEMInGBxsWOnCarWJ9ZNr8OwqGQgEKhAIACoHCAowqfqFCzD7v4MDMNLDjQY?hl=en-IE&gl=IE&ceid=IE:en

Reversal

Claw Hammer wrote: »

Of course the banks will reduce lending for property. They do it every time there is a recession. they don't want borrowers potentially being in negative equity or defaulting.
Banks are pro-cyclical and make good situations too good and bad situations worse.

So even if we all get our jobs back tomorrow, we won't be able to buy for God knows how long?

[Deleted User]

Reversal wrote: »

See rumours in other threads that banks are going to be restricting lending. Could this true, and if so why do they need to do so? ............

We're on week 3 of what's likely to be a 5-8 week economic shutdown (at best).
There's going to be ramifications into 2021 without doubt, companies might well get back up and running but could go wallop next year.
When economies slow down so does lending.

Claw Hammer

Reversal wrote: »

See rumours in other threads that banks are going to be restricting lending. Could this true, and if so why do they need to do so?

And will this not make things worse? People have reduced income which will suppress demand by itself and damage the market. Restricting lending will only multiply this effect.

Of course the banks will reduce lending for property. They do it every time there is a recession. they don't want borrowers potentially being in negative equity or defaulting.
Banks are pro-cyclical and make good situations too good and bad situations worse.

Reversal

what_traffic wrote: »

UK Forecast
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/mar/30/coronavirus-forecast-to-cut-uk-economic-output-by-15

Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) in the UK
"
House prices will fall 13% in the year to the end of March 2021, the CEBR said.
"

They know nothing, "sure people still need somewhere to live"

Reversal

See rumours in other threads that banks are going to be restricting lending. Could this true, and if so why do they need to do so?

And will this not make things worse? People have reduced income which will suppress demand by itself and damage the market. Restricting lending will only multiply this effect.

what_traffic

UK Forecast
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/mar/30/coronavirus-forecast-to-cut-uk-economic-output-by-15

Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) in the UK
"
House prices will fall 13% in the year to the end of March 2021, the CEBR said.
"

IndieRoar111

Sweet.Science wrote: »

You'd be mad to sell directly after this all dies down . The market will bounce back within 6-12months . People will sit on their property if they can . Supply will decrease making the recovery quicker

Please delete this.

I'll have a bot remind me of this in 1 year. This will be hilarious

voluntary

Selling a house to buy a more expensive one in a downturn is the best thing you can do. The nominal difference between cheap and expensive shrinks when prices go down, so you need to top-up by less to get a better house.

Padre_Pio

lalababa wrote: »

I think alot of people can sit on their house sales.

I suppose it depends on your reasons to sell. People upgrading may benefit. Your 300k loses 10%, but the 450k house you're buying also loses 10%, so its in your interest to sell.

Collapse of Airbnb and new tenant protection is probably going to discourage accidental landlords.

We may see a lot of emigration in the next year or two which would force sales.