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Share Picks 2020

beertons

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voluntary

EDIT: merged 3 messages.

I expect several upward corrections until this thing hits the very bottom. The next dump will likely not even be the worst one. We may be only like 1/3 of the way down.

Mantis Toboggan wrote: »

I'd guess that next week will be brutal.

Some bought into stocks already, the next move down should wipe the majority of cash hoarders off (as cash hoarders are hoping for it) and the third wave will likely be the most brutal one. The third wave is where nobody's left with cash reserves to buy into it as people are already fully loaded.

Any thoughts if I put it this way?

Shedite27

voluntary wrote: »

EDIT: merged 3 messages.

I expect several upward corrections until this thing hits the very bottom. The next dump will likely not even be the worst one. We may be only like 1/3 of the way down.

Some bought into stocks already, the next move down should wipe the majority of cash hoarders off (as cash hoarders are hoping for it) and the third wave will likely be the most brutal one. The third wave is where nobody's left with cash reserves to buy into it as people are already fully loaded.

Any thoughts if I put it this way?

Think it’s a bit over simplistic to think it has to go down to the bottom of the graph, there’s more money being printed in the world every year (how many trillion promises in the past week alone) so the equivalent of that 6000 level in 2017 is a good bit higher this year.

When you talk of waves, I think we’re through the initial shock drop, there’ll be volatile 5-10% up and down days for a few weeks now while America figures it’s **** out.

The next wave I see is when Q1 results start rolling in, if they’re stable, it’ll rally, if they’re poor, it’ll begin to fall again.

Jim2007

tommy35 wrote: »

Evening all. What is the best free investing podcast around? So much investing info around it would be great to use my time wisely.

It is not a podcast, but I expect it will be a half decent learning experience.

https://register.gotowebinar.com/register/3876135135320498187?source=lapsed

coolshannagh28

coolshannagh28 wrote: »

My Fibonacci analysis shows it falling to below the 4000 level , I think this could be quite close maybe a couple of weeks as the QE loses momentum and the body count becomes unbearable , that is not a definitive bottom but a level it can hit in this Eliot wave cycle.

Attachment not found.

greenfield21

This chart is probably as much use as all the others that have been posted..

https://twitter.com/StockCats/status/1243197948097429505

Take Your Pants Off

I'm trying to invest in the following :

LPI
Dnr
MFA

I was lucky in a sense that I created an etoro account a few months back, so I don't have to wait the queue. However these stocks aren't available in etoro. I imagine they would be in Degiro, however, I will have to wait a quite a while before I am registered there. Is there any alternative platforms or places I can buy these stocks? Ones which I won't have to be put in hold for registration.

Thanks

The Phantom Jipper

Take Your Pants Off wrote: »

I'm trying to invest in the following :

LPI
Dnr
MFA

I was lucky in a sense that I created an etoro account a few months back, so I don't have to wait the queue. However these stocks aren't available in etoro. I imagine they would be in Degiro, however, I will have to wait a quite a while before I am registered there. Is there any alternative platforms or places I can buy these stocks? Ones which I won't have to be put in hold for registration.

Thanks

Anything in particular drawing you to these three?

You can buy shares through Revolut. The set up was quick and easy, so may be an option (DeGiro looks far better but Revolut could keep you going in the meantime). I just checked the three you mentioned and they're all available on Revolut.

Take Your Pants Off

The Phantom Jipper wrote: »

Anything in particular drawing you to these three?

You can buy shares through Revolut. The set up was quick and easy, so may be an option (DeGiro looks far better but Revolut could keep you going in the meantime). I just checked the three you mentioned and they're all available on Revolut.

Thanks!! 😁
I just feel they are very low(so not much loss) (but if I keep it on hold for long, maybe huge gain) atm and will rise.

Jim2007

Take Your Pants Off wrote: »

Thanks!! 😁
I just feel they are very low(so not much loss) (but if I keep it on hold for long, maybe huge gain) atm and will rise.

Why should MFA for example rise? It seems to have failed to meet it margin calls in the past few days and has projected exposure of $9.5b at least.

y0ssar1an22

Jim2007 wrote: »

Why should MFA for example rise? It seems to have failed to meet it margin calls in the past few days and has projected exposure of $9.5b at least.

its gone from 0.36 to 1.86 in the last few days. why?

https://dwinnex.com/2020/03/27/mfa-financial-inc-mfa-price-analysis-nysemfa-bull-target-8-00-or-higher-2/

y0ssar1an22

they have cancelled their Q1 dividend though.

borderfox11

coolshannagh28 wrote: »

Attachment not found.

I think your fibs are upside down there?

coolshannagh28

borderfox11 wrote: »

I think your fibs are upside down there?

I blame the alcohol.

Jim2007

y0ssar1an22 wrote: »

its gone from 0.36 to 1.86 in the last few days. why?

https://dwinnex.com/2020/03/27/mfa-financial-inc-mfa-price-analysis-nysemfa-bull-target-8-00-or-higher-2/

So what? It still has not met it’s margin calls nor reduced it’s exposure in any way and if it fails to do so, the next thing you will learn about what happens to stocks that get delisted. Just because some fools are excited to buy someone’s debt does not mean you should do the same.

There are so many good stocks on sale right now.... put some people seem hell bent on putting their hard earned cash at risk for no good reason!

Bob Harris

Jim2007 wrote: »

So what? It still has not met it’s margin calls nor reduced it’s exposure in any way and if it fails to do so, the next thing you will learn about what happens to stocks that get delisted. Just because some fools are excited to buy someone’s debt does not mean you should do the same.

There are so many good stocks on sale right now.... put some people seem hell bent on putting their hard earned cash at risk for no good reason!

Who would be your top 3 picks of good companies given the current situation?

Jim2007

Bob Harris wrote: »

Who would be your top 3 picks of good companies given the current situation?

It takes me about 6 months of effort to identify a stock, value it and determine at what price to start building a position. When people start doing serious home work and start bring something of substance to the table, then I will be willing to share.

- I already pointed out that all the data necessary to do homework on the DOW companies is freely available and these blue chips are on sale and I'm still waiting for someone to come back on that one.

- A very interesting sector to look at is US Title Insurance, it's a mono line insurance, where the companies never make a loss on the insurance they write because the max cost to settle a case is about $100... It is one of the very few insurance sectors where the underwriter has perfect information about the future.

From Sept. 1979 to Nov. 2019, I had almost 45% of my portfolio invested in it and it accounted for approximately 8.5% of my annualised return over a 40 year period.

voluntary

Bob Harris wrote: »

Who would be your top 3 picks of good companies given the current situation?

If you're unsure what to buy, but know that you want to buy stocks, consider investment funds units. Pick one or two 100% invested in stocks and then it's just a timing issue to enter at a good time.

Lex Luthor

I'm probably going to look at a couple of ETF's
XLK and XSD are 2 that I'm looking at

Mad_maxx

Bob Harris wrote: »

Who would be your top 3 picks of good companies given the current situation?

Jim doesn't provide free advice, go through his post history (he'll go through yours) and you can see how he stoutly refuses to do so

He does castigate others out of charity however

Jim2007

Mad_maxx wrote: »

Jim doesn't provide free advice, go through his post history (he'll go through yours) and you can see how he stoutly refuses to do so

He does castigate others out of charity however

Still looking for that free lunch then max, noise everyday with nothing of any substance and when you bring something to the table and stop generating noise, I will respond in kind.

roosterman71

Jim2007 wrote: »

It takes me about 6 months of effort to identify a stock, value it and determine at what price to start building a position. When people start doing serious home work and start bring something of substance to the table, then I will be willing to share.

- I already pointed out that all the data necessary to do homework on the DOW companies is freely available and these blue chips are on sale and I'm still waiting for someone to come back on that one.

- A very interesting sector to look at is US Title Insurance, it's a mono line insurance, where the companies never make a loss on the insurance they write because the max cost to settle a case is about $100... It is one of the very few insurance sectors where the underwriter has perfect information about the future.

From Sept. 1979 to Nov. 2019, I had almost 45% of my portfolio invested in it and it accounted for approximately 8.5% of my annualised return over a 40 year period.

See title of thread

Bob Harris

Jim2007 wrote: »

It takes me about 6 months of effort to identify a stock, value it and determine at what price to start building a position. When people start doing serious home work and start bring something of substance to the table, then I will be willing to share.

- I already pointed out that all the data necessary to do homework on the DOW companies is freely available and these blue chips are on sale and I'm still waiting for someone to come back on that one.

- A very interesting sector to look at is US Title Insurance, it's a mono line insurance, where the companies never make a loss on the insurance they write because the max cost to settle a case is about $100... It is one of the very few insurance sectors where the underwriter has perfect information about the future.

From Sept. 1979 to Nov. 2019, I had almost 45% of my portfolio invested in it and it accounted for approximately 8.5% of my annualised return over a 40 year period.

Would having such a heavy proportion of your portfolio invested in one specific sub-sector not go against conventional financial advice?

Interesting companies btw - they have it all sewn up for themselves.

If the US is now in recession would that not reduce house buying and negate the need to buy their insurance though?

all about the mane

JD and BABA have been very good to me. I still see them as good picks going forward. I also like Best and a riskier one NIO.
Also still like Tesla and Amazon.

Jim2007

Bob Harris wrote: »

Would having such a heavy proportion of your portfolio invested in one specific sub-sector not go against conventional financial advice?

Well as Buffet once said: Keep all your eggs in one basket, but watch that basket closely.

Admittedly it is not for everyone, but I specialised in two areas: US title insurance and small to medium sized mainland European asset managers and nothing else. Back in the day, I was sending on average 20+ hours in research.

Bob Harris wrote: »

Interesting companies btw - they have it all sewn up for themselves.

There is is actually no real barrier to entry, except that you can't engage in any other type of insurance.

Bob Harris wrote: »

If the US is now in recession would that not reduce house buying and negate the need to buy their insurance though?

Well they do appear to be cyclical, but in reality they are little impacted - they just have normal years and good years. Their main asset is the database of titles and once a title has been researched it does not change. So there is very little in the way of fixed costs, they just add and drop staff as the economy flows. There is not much training needed to do the job, so it is not a case of having to keep on skilled people.

Also every transaction, be it a sale or a reposition is an opportunity to sell insurance. There is little point in repossessing a property if it is all going to go sideways because of issues with the title - after all it will only cost a few hundred dollars.

Jose Maria

Never thought I'd be reading about US title insurance at 7am on a Monday Morning - Strange times indeed

MurDawg

Cheers to poster who recommended Kitov - Looks like today will be a 100% gain from when you originally posted.

ELM327

all about the mane wrote: »

JD and BABA have been very good to me. I still see them as good picks going forward. I also like Best and a riskier one NIO.
Also still like Tesla and Amazon.

TSLA is still overvalued.
It is 250-300 usd (over 100%) over what it was in December - on a realistic PE number.
I sold at ~900 and will buy back in when it drops to around 350. Anyone who "likes" TSLA at 514 USD current price is a madman.

And I have a Tesla

RedRochey

First Monday in nearly a month that the S&P 500 futures haven't hit limit down, make of that what you will!

all about the mane

ELM327 wrote: »

TSLA is still overvalued.
It is 250-300 usd (over 100%) over what it was in December - on a realistic PE number.
I sold at ~900 and will buy back in when it drops to around 350. Anyone who "likes" TSLA at 514 USD current price is a madman.

And I have a Tesla

Tesla are the new Apple. They will be 1000 dollars eventually. I have no doubt.

Rainmann

How do people feel about Coca Cola? A solid performer over the years (especially when you factor in their Dividend, currently around 4%). Strong balance sheet too and a great brand name.