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Property Market 2020

Bigmac1euro

Maybe an article for “Property Market 2020”
Anyhow looks like developers are going to start strangling supply in order to keep prices in check.

Worth a read anyway.

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/developers-now-fear-flooding-market-as-house-prices-in-decline-38820967.html

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garhjw

ebayissues wrote: »

Right now I'd take 10% drop in any property I was looking at a few month ago. A couple of days ago, I revised my offer on a property down by 10%. Agent sent an angry response but couldnt give a toss.

The corrwlation between stock markets and house prces historically is lless than 50%, I dont think house prices will fall by 20%, it could be more but I'd say at a minimum a 10% will occur, not now but 3 - 6 months time.

There are alot of factors at play, so nobody can say how much of a drop will happen and when.

Pretty dangerous talking sense on this thread.

JamesMason

ebayissues wrote: »

Right now I'd take 10% drop in any property I was looking at a few month ago. A couple of days ago, I revised my offer on a property down by 10%. Agent sent an angry response but couldnt give a toss.

The corrwlation between stock markets and house prces historically is lless than 50%, I dont think house prices will fall by 20%, it could be more but I'd say at a minimum a 10% will occur, not now but 3 - 6 months time.

There are alot of factors at play, so nobody can say how much of a drop will happen and when.

That angry agent will certainly give a toss once his denial wears off.

Melanchthon

Dolbhad wrote: »

I don’t think new builds have scope for reductions due to HTB and also if new builds don’t sell, builder will sit on the land and houses until they do go up in price.

I know it seems like a weirdly long time ago but we just had an election where SF did very well obvious land banking is going to be incredibly politically damaging for FF / FG

[Deleted User]

lawred2 wrote: »

Out you go and splash the cash then...

I presume since you're confident that buying before a dip has no real tangible effects... Then I presume you're happy to go balls out in to the market right now!?

Or are you waiting for further drops?

Why would you be doing that?

It's just in your head you know?

I think you know that there is nothing happening anywhere right now. We are on a lock down. There won't be anything bought it sold for a long time.

Knowing that there will probably be a recession, anyone would be crazy to spend a lot of money on anything right now.

I'm not sure why you seem so angry.
I'm not waiting further drops, I have been looking for a property for the last 12minths or more.
When I see one that I like & can afford, I will buy it.

voluntary

Melanchthon wrote: »

I know it seems like a weirdly long time ago but we just had an election where SF did very well obvious land banking is going to be incredibly politically damaging for FF / FG

Dear landlords, read this:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/rainerzitelmann/2020/03/09/the-rapid-rise-of-anticapitalism-and-rich-bashing-in-germany

handlemaster

voluntary wrote: »

Dear landlords, read this:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/rainerzitelmann/2020/03/09/the-rapid-rise-of-anticapitalism-and-rich-bashing-in-germany

The left doing leftie stuff. Same vibe from SF

TheSheriff

ebayissues wrote: »

Right now I'd take 10% drop in any property I was looking at a few month ago. A couple of days ago, I revised my offer on a property down by 10%. Agent sent an angry response but couldnt give a toss.

The corrwlation between stock markets and house prces historically is lless than 50%, I dont think house prices will fall by 20%, it could be more but I'd say at a minimum a 10% will occur, not now but 3 - 6 months time.

There are alot of factors at play, so nobody can say how much of a drop will happen and when.

Had a similar experience with one house we really liked, revised our offer to 7% below asking, angry/snobby email came that evening.

Melanchthon

handlemaster wrote: »

The left doing leftie stuff. Same vibe from SF

Land banking is definitely an issue, developers have sat on some sites straight through Celtic tiger, through crash and now if there is a down turn might keep sitting on them.

lawred2

bubblypop wrote: »

I think you know that there is nothing happening anywhere right now. We are on a lock down. There won't be anything bought it sold for a long time.

Knowing that there will probably be a recession, anyone would be crazy to spend a lot of money on anything right now.

I'm not sure why you seem so angry.
I'm not waiting further drops, I have been looking for a property for the last 12minths or more.
When I see one that I like & can afford, I will buy it.

Angry?

No.

But it's simply incorrect (maybe delusional) to say that someone buying at a peak before a collapsing market is not affected. It's barstool talk.

Doesn't necessarily affect me right now. I'm not speaking for myself. I bought in 2013.

But I damn well know how I'd feel if I closed in February 2020. And how concerned I would be.

Graham

lawred2 wrote: »

But it's simply incorrect (maybe delusional) to say that someone buying at a peak before a collapsing market is not affected. It's barstool talk.

The same could be said of ignoring the potential costs of continued renting while waiting for the hail Mary price drops and assuming mortgage finance is always going to be readily available.

Temporary drops in value can be offset against rent savings, additional years of capital repayments, inflation and access to mortgages at economy stimulating interest rates.

Zenify

Graham wrote: »

The same could be said of ignoring the potential costs of continued renting while waiting for the hail Mary price drops and assuming mortgage finance is always going to be readily available.

Temporary drops in value can be offset against rent savings, additional years of capital repayments, inflation and access to mortgages at economy stimulating interest rates.

We are entering what could be one of the worst economic and health disasters in history and you are still telling people to buy. Is there ever a situation when you tell people not to buy property?

Graham

Zenify wrote: »

We are entering what could be one of the worst economic and health disasters in history and you are still telling people to buy. Is there ever a situation when you tell people not to buy property?

Not that I told anyone to go out and buy but a bit of balance is probably more sensible than running around aimlessly proclaiming the sky is falling in.

Was there a specific part of my post you disagree with?

Yurt2

Zenify wrote: »

We are entering what could be one of the worst economic and health disasters in history and you are still telling people to buy. Is there ever a situation when you tell people not to buy property?

Smart and ballsy is a way of life

lawred2

Graham wrote: »

The same could be said of ignoring the potential costs of continued renting while waiting for the hail Mary price drops and assuming mortgage finance is always going to be readily available.

Temporary drops in value can be offset against rent savings, additional years of capital repayments, inflation and access to mortgages at economy stimulating interest rates.

100%. I'm not arguing against any of those points. Did I give you the impression I was.

Zenify

Graham wrote: »

Not that I told anyone to go out and buy but a bit of balance is probably more sensible than running around aimlessly proclaiming the sky is falling in.

Was there a specific part of my post you disagree with?

It just appears that your post was looking for reason to justify buying rather than looking at the current situation. They are tiny compared to what is going on. People shouldn't be making the biggest financial decisions of their life at a time with so many risks. Nothing like this has ever happened in history. We have no idea the final economic damage of this, but we do know it will be colossal. Saying your rent may cost more than the drop is a fair argument (which I have even told people) in normal circumstances but not now. Job losses, family health, jobs... it could all change in a few months.

Graham

Zenify wrote: »

It just appears that your post was looking for reason to justify buying rather than looking at the current situation..

My post was to add a bit of balance, you might notice it was a response to another post (quoted).

lawred2

Graham wrote: »

My post was to add a bit of balance, you might notice it was a response to another post (quoted).

Balance for balance sake. None was needed. Nobody was arguing with you.

Your points being valid don't automatically make what I was saying invalid. Both can be equally true.

I don't know what your point is... Are you saying that buying before a large devaluation doesn't affect people?

fergus1001

combat14 wrote:

Meanwhile, land values for house building purposes could fall by up to 50pc.

all the buckos hoarding land are about to get a good kick up the hole imo

Graham

lawred2 wrote: »

Your points being valid don't automatically make what I was saying invalid. Both can be equally true.

I don't know how you inferred I suggested otherwise.

lawred2

Graham wrote: »

I don't know how you inferred I suggested otherwise.

Right...

That just brings me back around to having no clue why you're trying to make that point in response..

Anyway, it is what it is.

handlemaster

Melanchthon wrote: »

Land banking is definitely an issue, developers have sat on some sites straight through Celtic tiger, through crash and now if there is a down turn might keep sitting on them.

How much public land is there that is fit for building and the state have done nothing. And I mean land that is not parks etc.

[Deleted User]

lawred2 wrote: »

Angry?

No.

But it's simply incorrect (maybe delusional) to say that someone buying at a peak before a collapsing market is not affected. It's barstool talk.

Doesn't necessarily affect me right now. I'm not speaking for myself. I bought in 2013.

But I damn well know how I'd feel if I closed in February 2020. And how concerned I would be.

yea, you might be pissed off that you didn't wait a few months, maybe you would have got it cheaper, but then again, you may not have got the house you wanted.

beauf

fergus1001 wrote: »

all the buckos hoarding land are about to get a good kick up the hole imo

Makes no sense. It was the peak of the market. If they haven't built on it by now, it was because it didn't make financial sense.

jrosen

fergus1001 wrote: »

all the buckos hoarding land are about to get a good kick up the hole imo

Didnt this turn out to be untrue? That a lot of the land wasnt actually suitable for residential development?
Plus the market was up, if someone didnt sell then they didnt need too.

Donald Trump

For all the people telling others to go out and buy now, you can put your own money where your mouth is.

Granted, you might not have the cash lying around to purchase another unit, or you might not be able to get to the bank to finance it, but I am sure that there are many investment vehicles out there that other "idiots" are trying to bail out of and you will get to buy their slices at an even more reduced price.

Temporary blip of 10%. Get your spare cash in there and wait for the month or two for it to recover and you have a return of 10% in a couple of months. Easy money for ye!

I understand the point that if you find your dream house and really really want it and can afford it and don't really care that it will drop, then that's fine. But most people's choices are constrained by what they can afford. If you have a decent chunk in cash, then maybe that current "dream" 3 bed in Finglas can be swapped for a currently-not-considered-and-out-of-the-range 4-bed in Drumcondra in 6 months. Or maybe it won't. Who knows. Either is possible. But it is more possible that it will happen than you would have predicted 1 year ago

Donald Trump

beauf wrote: »

Makes no sense. It was the peak of the market. If they haven't built on it by now, it was because it didn't make financial sense.

If the land you are sitting on is going up by 20% year-on-year, and the economy is doing well (as it was), then people are happy to think that it will keep going up and are happy to leave their money in it for another while before cashing it in.

beauf

Donald Trump wrote: »

If the land you are sitting on is going up by 20% year-on-year, and the economy is doing well (as it was), then people are happy to think that it will keep going up and are happy to leave their money in it for another while before cashing it in.

The market had slowed long before this crisis.

The industry has been complaining about the cost to build not making it economical to build. That hasn't changed regardless.

Who will buy it.

Donald Trump

beauf wrote: »

The market had slowed long before this crisis.

The industry has been complaining about the cost to build not making it economical to build. That hasn't changed regardless.

Who will buy it.

The "economical to build" argument is a bit tenuous. Figures that I saw quoted included land prices and a "margin" for the developer.

Who will buy it? Whoever pays the most for it. Same as anything. If they offered building land for 1 Euro an acre then everyone would like to buy it.

We should not be indulging or indirectly bailing out those who sit on land banks under the expectation of getting a large return.

OEP

There's a lot to be said for buying now if you can get a seller to give you a good discount. Judging by some posts on boards, some are willing to do that. There is a lot of uncertainty now, so if you feel you're getting good value for your situation - then perhaps go for it. If this emergency doesn't last that long, the economy could recover quite quickly and property prices might not drop all that much - but no one knows! I would put a caveat that this should be a property that you plan on living in for minimum 5 years, ideally longer.

beauf

Donald Trump wrote: »

The "economical to build" argument is a bit tenuous. ....

Anyone is free to get finance for a project and prove them wrong. But few will...

A lot of the new build estates I see are not sold out. They are still for sale must be close to a year now.

Any builder or developer is going to see that and be very reluctant to build, even before the virus.

So even this land became available, no one is going to build on it now for a long time.

This ship has sailed.