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Property Market 2020

Bigmac1euro

Maybe an article for “Property Market 2020”
Anyhow looks like developers are going to start strangling supply in order to keep prices in check.

Worth a read anyway.

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/developers-now-fear-flooding-market-as-house-prices-in-decline-38820967.html

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landofthetree

Zenify wrote: »

What do people think is a possible range for property to fall?

Davy stockbrokers are saying 20%.
https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/new-house-prices-could-fall-by-up-to-20pc-amid-coronavirus-uncertainty-report-39071128.html

KilOit

Whole thread is full of salty begrudges without their own home and landlords trying to reassure themselves that prices won't fall.
Truth is no one knows what will happen, i personally think prices will fall but they may well stay around similar prices they are now.
I bought in 2018 and i think i paid too much, lucky we had a huge deposit so chances of negative equity is practically zero unless the world ends and we buy goods with bottle caps

landofthetree

KilOit wrote: »

Whole thread is full of salty begrudges without their own home and landlords trying to reassure themselves that prices won't fall.
Truth is no one knows what will happen, i personally think prices will fall but they may well stay around similar prices they are now.
I bought in 2018 and i think i paid too much, lucky we had a huge deposit so chances of negative equity is practically zero unless the world ends and we buy goods with bottle caps

Im a homeowner and I hope they fall. I want to see my kids be able to afford a home.

But as I stated earlier in the thread this wasn't the way I wanted then to fall.

Btw a lot of those "salty begrudgers" have ever right to be so. Its a joke how unaffordable they have become.

Graham

landofthetree wrote: »

Davy stockbrokers are saying 20%.
https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/new-house-prices-could-fall-by-up-to-20pc-amid-coronavirus-uncertainty-report-39071128.html

Are they?

This is according to a report from Davy Stockbrokers, which suggests the financial markets have priced in a decline of 15-20pc in the value of homes.

guyfawkes5

Zenify wrote: »

What do people think is a possible range for property to fall?

Some say 20% (specifically about new builds).

Some say 3% (specifically about the UK market).

I saw another report (not Davy) that said the stock markets seemed to be pricing in a fall of ~12%, but I can't find that link right now.

An immediate short term fall of 5-20% over the course of this recession followed by a recovery seems like a reasonable range.

handlemaster

KilOit wrote: »

Whole thread is full of salty begrudges without their own home and landlords trying to reassure themselves that prices won't fall.
Truth is no one knows what will happen, i personally think prices will fall but they may well stay around similar prices they are now.
I bought in 2018 and i think i paid too much, lucky we had a huge deposit so chances of negative equity is practically zero unless the world ends and we buy goods with bottle caps

And dont forget the odd ones boasting about having huge deposits

guyfawkes5

Graham wrote: »

Are they?

It's worth pointing out that the stock markets are relatively panicky and do not price reality well a lot of the time - if they were a good indicator then you wouldn't have seen the zig-zags we've seen in the past few months, even if they are moving to current events.

Graham

+1

My faith in the ability of the financial markets to predict much would rank on a par with a boards survey thread.

garhjw

Graham wrote: »

+1

My faith in the ability of the financial markets to predict much would rank on a par with a boards survey thread.

Post of the month!

Donald Trump

Graham wrote: »

+1

My faith in the ability of the financial markets to predict much would rank on a par with a boards survey thread.

Market expectation probably isn't understood by, or is perhaps less relevance to, the little fellas but for the big players it is as good as real and it is important.

KilOit

handlemaster wrote: »

And dont forget the odd ones boasting about having huge deposits

I saved my arse off for years, little or no take away, renting in house shares, making my own lunch every single day, no take away coffees, cycling and walking to work to save on petrol cost. i'm very frugal.
We moved home for a while to save, (yes not everyone can do this)
I ain't boasting at all, i'm in my mid 30's and hardly rolling in it.

cnocbui

handlemaster wrote: »

And dont forget the odd ones boasting about having huge deposits

I bought my first house in the mid 90's and had a 70% deposit. I saved, didn't drink, didn't smoke, didn't go on a single holiday and didn't spend money on myself because 'I was worth it'. Paid off the mortgage within a year. Then I went on my first ever holiday.

IvoryTower

I'm terrible at saving, drank and ate most of my money away for the last 20 years, but I finally have a deposit saved

But it looks like the world is going to end so I prob should have kept drinking

JamesMason

IvoryTower wrote: »

I'm terrible at saving, drank and ate most of my money away for the last 20 years, but I finally have a deposit saved

But it looks like the world is going to end so I prob should have kept drinking

Post of the day

[Deleted User]

handlemaster wrote: »

And dont forget the odd ones boasting about having huge deposits

Who is boasting? Some peoole saved & worked hard to get a deposit together.
What's your issue?

[Deleted User]

No knowing exactly what will happen yet, but if you were interested in a buy to let definitely do not go ahead for at least six months.

guyfawkes5

Buying as an investment is definitely a crazy move until at the very least much later this year when the effects on rent become clearer.

Mad_maxx

pearcider wrote: »

Try several years. The West has responded to their already bankrupt financial institutions with even more debt. Guess what. The answer to being in too much debt is not to take out another loan. The best case scenario we can hope for is that the west goes Japanese ie a long decline with debt to gdp hitting 200% and then the inevitable default and liquidation. Property bulls should note that Japanese property prices peaked in 1989 and have still not recovered.

However I don’t think we will be that lucky. Japan’s society is significantly more resilient and unified than that of Europe or the US. The average Japanese person has huge savings and they don’t use credit cards. Most people in the west have huge debts most of which is collateralized with depreciating assets like vehicles and property.

why do people point to japan as some sort of lesson , that ( 1980,s bubble ) was the biggest asset bubble in history , a complete anomaly

kevinc565

voluntary wrote: »

Would median not exclude half of the population from your equation? Something is hardly affordable if half of the society cannot afford it.

you mentioned 3,5 and median salaries.

I'm just saying most buyers are couples ( whether or not that's good is a separate story)

...and that therefore if the price is less than 7 times median income its affordable by your measure

pearcider

Mad_maxx wrote: »

why do people point to japan as some sort of lesson , that ( 1980,s bubble ) was the biggest asset bubble in history , a complete anomaly

The Japanese bubble is dwarfed by the US bond bubble. Both the balance sheet of the federal reserve and the fiscal position of the US treasury have deteriorated dramatically since 2008.

Ursabear

kevinc565 wrote: »

you mentioned 3,5 and median salaries.

I'm just saying most buyers are couples ( whether or not that's good is a separate story)

...and that therefore if the price is less than 7 times median income its affordable by your measure

If the average salary is about 39 k per year that would be 273k if you multiply it by 7, so most houses in the suburbs are out of reach for most couples at the moment. eg . https://www.thejournal.ie/article.php?id=4677090

This David McWilliams article suggests "Maybe 30 per cent of all Irish women between the age of 35-39, are single."

"Today 39.8 per cent of men between these ages are single. That’s nearly four in 10 men – more than the number of single women.

In total, 145,507 people between the ages of 35 and 39 are single. That’s around 76,000 men and 69,000 women."

SO I think we need to think about how single people are living going forward too, and many of these are single parents or would like to be. I think a lot of people choose not to be because their acomadation situation is too precarious.

http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/the-rise-of-the-singleton-has-transformed-ireland/

Donald Trump

bubblypop wrote: »

handlemaster wrote: »

And dont forget the odd ones boasting about having huge deposits

Who is boasting? Some peoole saved & worked hard to get a deposit together.
What's your issue?

Reminds me of this.

kevinc565

ittakestwo wrote: »

Was it the vendor or the EA who said that? If it was vendor well fair enough. You dont know who you are dealing with when buying/selling. They could be a complete ostrich with their head in the sand. But if it was an EA who said that I would be annoyed. They are actually insulting your intelligence if they expect you to believe that.

once you get serious, your solicitor will have the vendors names. then google...

kevinc565

Claw Hammer wrote: »

Plenty will be booted out. In 3 months there will be a new negative equity generation. There will be receivers appointed to the properties of defaulting landlords. There will be numerous unravelled PIAs.

The churn will be massive.

tax Revenues will have fallen of a cliff and there will be massive new government debt. If and when the IMF comes back, there will be no more Mister Nice Guy.

ireland is a controlled ponzi scheme so this wont happen. just like the last crisis the government will tell the banks not to repossess. so no landlords defaulting...

kevinc565

Ursabear wrote: »

If the average salary is about 39 k per year that would be 273k if you multiply it by 7, so most houses in the suburbs are out of reach for most couples at the moment. eg . https://www.thejournal.ie/article.php?id=4677090

This David McWilliams article suggests "Maybe 30 per cent of all Irish women between the age of 35-39, are single."

"Today 39.8 per cent of men between these ages are single. That’s nearly four in 10 men – more than the number of single women.

In total, 145,507 people between the ages of 35 and 39 are single. That’s around 76,000 men and 69,000 women."

SO I think we need to think about how single people are living going forward too, and many of these are single parents or would like to be. I think a lot of people choose not to be because their acomadation situation is too precarious.

http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/the-rise-of-the-singleton-has-transformed-ireland/

So that's the national average right? So at the moment on myhome.ie there are 717 properties throughout the country for less than €275k

Should there be more? Yes. Should there be more in Dublin . Yes. But there are house's out there.

What's the dublin median salary?

As i alluded to, whether one should be priced out of the market by virtue of being single is a question that needs answering.

Ursabear

kevinc565 wrote: »

So that's the national average right? So at the moment on myhome.ie there are 717 properties throughout the country for less than €275k

Should there be more? Yes. Should there be more in Dublin . Yes. But there are house's out there.

What's the dublin median salary?

As i alluded to, whether one should be priced out of the market by virtue of being single is a question that needs answering.

I'd love to know how many of these are within a reasonable commutable distance on public transport to major cities eg Cork and Dublin and don't need a lot of work (finance)put into them?

I'd be interested in finding out the median salary for Dublin myself but for that discussion we probably need to know the median salary of a couple working in Dublin, looking to buy, and then comparing the prices of the houses in the suburbs within commuting distance to Dublin.

kevinc565

Ursabear wrote: »

I'd love to know how many of these are within a reasonable commutable distance on public transport to major cities eg Cork and Dublin and don't need a lot of work (finance)put into them?

I'd be interested in finding out the median salary for Dublin myself but for what we are discussing we probably need to know the median salary of a couple looking to buy in Dublin and then comparing the prices of the houses in the suburbs within commuting distance to Dublin.

ireland doesn't really have major cities though does it?

Ursabear

kevinc565 wrote: »

ireland doesn't really have major cities though does it?

Haha XD ok I guess not Major cities , but main cities , you know what I mean

The places where most people who are looking to step onto the property ladder work.

handlemaster

bubblypop wrote: »

Who is boasting? Some peoole saved & worked hard to get a deposit together.
What's your issue?

Look at the comment I replied to and tell me are landlords any different.

landofthetree

Should the currently measures limiting economic and social activity remain in place for 12 weeks, it is likely the Irish economy would shrink by 7.1pc this year, according to the report.
https://amp.independent.ie/business/irish/ireland-to-fall-into-recession-this-year-ersi-report-39077726.html?__twitter_impression=true

If it goes on longer than 12 weeks we are looking at a great depression.

Probably going to last till we get a vaccine in 2021.