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Property Market 2020

Bigmac1euro

Maybe an article for “Property Market 2020”
Anyhow looks like developers are going to start strangling supply in order to keep prices in check.

Worth a read anyway.

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/developers-now-fear-flooding-market-as-house-prices-in-decline-38820967.html

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landofthetree

SozBbz wrote: »

It is indeed a boomtime for Doom&Gloom merchants. You're all secretly jizzing yourselves with glee at the prospect the demise of the world economy.

I'll take what I know to be true from years of study of Economics and Behavioural Science and sit tight, thanks.

Facts don't have feelings. Nor do markets or economies.

Most people always act too late. How many people decided not to get out of the stock market when this crash started?

Dow Jones down over 30% now. Anybody getting out in the first few days lost a lot less.

Problem with property is it not liquid. Very hard to get out once the crash happens.

beauf

landofthetree wrote: »

In 3-4 weeks time everybody will see how bad things are.

Anybody thinking we aren't facing a huge downturn is in for a shock.

I don't think anyone thinks there won't be a huge downturn. Thats just hyperbole.

But I think what economic downturn gives with one hand it will take away with another. Because thats what happened every other time, something vaguely similar has happened.

[Deleted User]

landofthetree wrote: »

Facts don't have feelings. Nor do markets or economies.

Most people always act too late. How many people decided not to get out of the stock market when this crash started?

Dow Jones down over 30% now. Anybody getting out in the first few days lost a lot less.

Problem with property is it not liquid. Very hard to get out once the crash happens.

This is not the mindset people buying a place to live in should have.

Do you think I should have sold my house a month ago? I probably should have sold the few shares I own but I can't live in stocks.

beauf

I expect anyone who's going to make money on this crisis is already sitting on huge case reserves, ready to go.

SozBbz

landofthetree wrote: »

Facts don't have feelings. Nor do markets or economies.

Yeah well, since we're talking nonsense - facts don't buy houses, nor do markets or economies.

SozBbz

beauf wrote: »

I expect anyone who's going to make money on this crisis is already sitting on huge case reserves, ready to go.

And I don't think they're posting on this thread, dithering about buying a roof over their heads.

landofthetree

beauf wrote: »

I don't think anyone thinks there won't be a huge downturn. Thats just hyperbole.

But I think what economic downturn gives with one hand it will take away with another. Because thats what happened every other time, something vaguely similar has happened.

Correct. Very few people will be buying houses.

But next time we might have a government that doesn't sell half the country to vulture funds.

beauf

landofthetree wrote: »

Correct. Very few people will be buying houses.

But next time we might have a government that doesn't sell half the country to vulture funds.

Maybe someone will buy it back cheap. Maybe Apple. or Russia I heard they were looking the place over.

landofthetree

beauf wrote: »

I expect anyone who's going to make money on this crisis is already sitting on huge case reserves, ready to go.

Property is a bad investment.(Not talking about a place to live)

If you have enough cash to buy a property you should look elsewhere IMO.

Disadvantages:

Liquidity. Properties are not as liquid as stocks or other investments where you can pull out your money anytime you want. ...
High cost.
Maintenance. ...
Possible liability. ...
Interest rates. ...
Problematic tenants.

Etc

Mic 1972

Interested Observer wrote: »

This is not the mindset people buying a place to live in should have.

Do you think I should have sold my house a month ago? I probably should have sold the few shares I own but I can't live in stocks.

Not everybody bought a house to live in

Mic 1972

beauf wrote: »

Likewise a lot of LL don't have mortgages, so they can't all be bankrupted, by missing a month or threes rent.
Sure you'd have to expect that normally when a tenant over-holds. You'd have to have a float to cover such things.
Likewise a boiler could go or a leak or simply refurbishment could cost a few thousand when tenancy changes.

A LL with no mortgage has nothing to lose, selling now would be smarter than selling in 6 months when the economy is paralyzed. or they can keep renting, sure they won't go bankrupt
A LL who is renting a property and has a mortgage is taking a huge risk and making little to no profit until the mortgage is paid off. These LLs can't sell now, they have to keep renting to pay the mortgage

pearcider

awec wrote: »

If they are on the property ladder.

Let's be absolutely clear here, because it seems to be getting lost, if some people get bargains it's because many more people have been taken out of the market.

That is to say, this notion of "everyone wait, everyone get a bargain" is just not how it works. It's nonsense.

The choice for many people is not overpriced house now or cheap house later. It's overpriced house now vs no house later.

God the property bulls are really doing somersaults in here today. No house later how do you figure that? Supply is going to pour onto the market over the next few years. Be sure of that.

Queasy Tadpole

Hardly anything going up on daft at the moment.

We are thinking of taking ours off the market for the time being.

pearcider

Queasy Tadpole wrote: »

Hardly anything going up on daft at the moment.

We are thinking of taking ours off the market for the time being.

Look at the rental availability. Supply is exploding. This will bring down property prices in time.

kevinc565

I love it when these unrealistically priced houses fall in price. Still way too expensive though!

Down €100k earlier this month.

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/3-whitebeam-avenue-clonskeagh-dublin-14-d14a3t7/4406210

landofthetree

Interested Observer wrote: »

This is not the mindset people buying a place to live in should have.

Do you think I should have sold my house a month ago? I probably should have sold the few shares I own but I can't live in stocks.

No.

I'm talking about landlords.

MarkY91

Greedy bastard landlords getting a snack of reality. One good thing to come from Coronavirus at least..

cnocbui

landofthetree wrote: »

Property is a bad investment.(Not talking about a place to live)

If you have enough cash to buy a property you should look elsewhere IMO.

Disadvantages:

Liquidity. Properties are not as liquid as stocks or other investments where you can pull out your money anytime you want. ...
High cost.
Maintenance. ...
Possible liability. ...
Interest rates. ...
Problematic tenants.

Etc

I tend to agree with you. Owning property in this particular country, doubly so. I am seriously considering just investing my capital and renting, once we are the other side of this mess and I have sold up.

lalababa

Ireland is not the USA. There are alot of houses falling into the ground around the countryside, where the owner could get 50-100k for them. Why don't they sell? All that will be left in a few years is a site.
Alot of houses for sale aswell where owners can sit on their hands for years. An estate near me, be it in the countryside, but still where a new 4bed would fetch 200k ATM, was nearly finished in 2008, and then left on sale but for more than anyone would pay. Tis only now dawning on them now to sell below what they thought they'd get. Basically they have sat on it for 12 years.
Only a small % need to sell asap for whatever reason. That's what I find.
But yeah I think there will be a slight downward movement in asking prices.

[Deleted User]

MarkY91 wrote: »

Greedy bastard landlords getting a snack of reality. One good thing to come from Coronavirus at least..

You got that from the linked ad?

Marcusm

They are mixing Eileen Grey and Le Corbusier furniture in close proximity which is disrespectful of Miss Grey. Congrats to the kid who made the Lego Tower of Bridge.

kevinc565

I find it funny when they raise the price by a small amount to get activity on the webpage, yet it's still for sale 3 months later.

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/70-fairways-rathfarnham-dublin-14/4274303

I saw another house a while ago go up 20k and then down 20k a few weeks later to generate a price drop to get people interested.

Rodney Bathgate

Are you going up post hundreds of these?

kevinc565

that's the plan., one for every house on myhome.ie

Pity no one has though of it before ( estate agents dotn liek it) but it would be great if people could leave commetns on the myhome.ie

Staying at home all day gets boring!!

Graham

Mod Note

Threads Merged

LuasSimon

Wouldn’t like to have bought an investment property in recent times . The government are going to have to get money from somewhere and raise taxes once all this passes over .
Anyone that can afford to own two three or more houses will be easier tax than those returning to their job or not returning to their job at all with a larger welfare bill for the state also to be paid for from somewhere .

Graham

LuasSimon wrote: »

Anyone that can afford to own two three or more houses will be easier tax than those returning to their job

Taxes tend to be on income (PAYE) or spending (VAT / Stamp Duty) rather than asset value.

Idbatterim

Graham wrote: »

Taxes tend to be on income (PAYE) or spending (VAT / Stamp Duty) rather than asset value.

yes in this banana republic, but its an idiotic taxation system here...

Idbatterim

awec wrote: »

If they are on the property ladder.

Let's be absolutely clear here, because it seems to be getting lost, if some people get bargains it's because many more people have been taken out of the market.

That is to say, this notion of "everyone wait, everyone get a bargain" is just not how it works. It's nonsense.

The choice for many people is not overpriced house now or cheap house later. It's overpriced house now vs no house later.

your last line, is true, some people wont be able to buy later, other will. A lot of it is down to chance. Some people will be able to just take advantage of falling prices and buy. But like you say, its not a black and white situation..

landofthetree

MarkY91 wrote: »

Greedy bastard landlords getting a snack of reality. One good thing to come from Coronavirus at least..

But we need landlords.

Not everyone wants to be a homeowner. Eg people in their 20s may be happy to rent. People coming to Ireland for contract work etc.

Better regulations are what's needed.