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Property Market 2020

Bigmac1euro

Maybe an article for “Property Market 2020”
Anyhow looks like developers are going to start strangling supply in order to keep prices in check.

Worth a read anyway.

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/developers-now-fear-flooding-market-as-house-prices-in-decline-38820967.html

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19233974

An Ri rua wrote: »

Please elaborate. As lost consumption is lost consumption.

I think the chinese would be worried more about how this evolves in the US, as we know the american govt. love a war to divert attention away from their own mishandling and shift all blame onto the "chinese virus". Crazy times ahead for the world

beauf

Mic 1972 wrote: »

LLs who owns several properties and rent them out as a job know when it's profitable to rent and when it's more beneficial to sell
Rent is risky and has a lot of expenses that people font consider until they find themselves in the LL shoes
Rent is profitable if the net profit is worth the risk and the hassle of renting

You seem to referring to cash flow as profit. You won't know if its profitable until you sell it.
You don't cut and run if you have a bad year and its a 20~30 yr investment.
If you are speculating on property and flipping it thats entirely different.

Mic 1972

beauf wrote: »

You seem to referring to cash flow as profit. You won't know if its profitable until you sell it.
You don't cut and run if you have a bad year and its a 20~30 yr investment.
If you are speculating on property and flipping it thats entirely different.

if your property is not expected to produce a reasonable profit you may as well consider selling. Investors are quick at making decisions

fliball123

Mic 1972 wrote: »

if your property is not expected to produce a reasonable profit you may as well consider selling. Investors are quick at making decisions

Can investors make a quick decision on properties if you have a tenant in surely they cannot circumvent tenants rights??

Plumbthedepths

I'm genuinely amazed that some are considering proceeding with a purchase despite so many unknowns.

beauf

Mic 1972 wrote: »

if your property is not expected to produce a reasonable profit you may as well consider selling. Investors are quick at making decisions

You don't seem to be able to define what a profit is in a Rental situation. Or indeed whats a "professional" landlord is.

fliball123 wrote: »

Can investors make a quick decision on properties if you have a tenant in surely they cannot circumvent tenants rights??

Exactly. They would have sell with a tenant in situ. Who would buy that.

Graham

Mod Note

Some off topic posts moved from the Currently Buying a House thread.

Shelga

I'm 32, had finally gotten to a place where I could start making offers, then all this happened!

Agree with other people here- how on earth could the coronavirus crisis not have an extremely severe impact on demand for housing? If only 50% of the people who wanted to buy before all this happened, are still in a position to do so in 6 months time, then obviously prices will fall.

I'm in a secure, public sector job- I'd be massively foolish to buy anywhere for at least 6 months, right?

On the one hand, I feel so, so fortunate to be in secure employment. On the other hand, I feel guilty. Absolutely nobody wants to be able to buy because the world's economy has imploded while they are safe, unless they are a complete sociopath. I would have preferred if everything had stayed the way it was, even if that meant it was harder for me personally to get a place.

Interesting, sad times ahead

Mic 1972

fliball123 wrote: »

Can investors make a quick decision on properties if you have a tenant in surely they cannot circumvent tenants rights??

That's one scenario. There are also vacant properties and property used for short leases (dead market), these might come up on the market quickly

Claw Hammer

Shelga wrote: »

On the other hand, I feel guilty.

Interesting, sad times ahead

There is no need to feel guilty. The compensation for being a public servant is that in times of economic turmoil the careful public servant can acquire assets at a low price. When the economy is on the up the public servant is usually earning less than others and this frozen out. Economic cycle operates in such a way that every few years there is a bone followed by a bust followed by another boom, followed by another bust and so on. Public servants are on the sidelines during the boom is and centre stage during the busts.

beauf

Mic 1972 wrote: »

That's one scenario. There are also vacant properties and property used for short leases (dead market), these might come up on the market quickly

Thus far they seem to be trying to undercut the normal rental market.

Claw Hammer

beauf wrote: »

Thus far they seem to be trying to undercut the normal rental market.

There is no normal rental market. There is what used to be the normal rental market. Many owners of air B&B need cash urgently because they had to close down another business I want to get in and get tenants ahead of a lockdown when there will be no viewings allowed.

beauf

They've been making money hand over fist for a couple of years. Why would they need cash urgently.
Other LL are caught both in a RPZ and a rent freeze. They can't raise rent, they can't lower it. They can't evict, they can't collect rent.
A new LL though, can set any rent they like. They can also get a new tenant.

Claw Hammer

beauf wrote: »

They've been making money hand over fist for a couple of years. Why would they need cash urgently.
Other LL are caught both in a RPZ and a rent freeze. They can't raise rent, they can't lower it. They can't evict, they can't collect rent.
A new LL though, can set any rent they like. They can also get a new tenant.

Some have other businesses which have closed. They may have been bringing in a lot of money for a number of years but it may have been committed in other areas, and they may not have much cash in hand.

beauf

I see, so we are making things up now.

Perhaps one of them is a prince, and just needs someone to buy their apartments, so they can release a fortune impounded in another country...western union....etc.

Mic 1972

beauf wrote: »

They've been making money hand over fist for a couple of years. Why would they need cash urgently.
Other LL are caught both in a RPZ and a rent freeze. They can't raise rent, they can't lower it. They can't evict, they can't collect rent.
A new LL though, can set any rent they like. They can also get a new tenant.

you seem very tunnel visioned about the rental market
It's not an easy business at all, the profit is not as high as you seem to believe
In a time like this it makes a lot of sense for some LL to pull the plug, take a break or sell

randoplh134

FernandoTorres wrote: »

I can't figure out whether the people saying there won't be an effect on property prices are deluded, in denial or plain crazy. This is a massive event and one of the biggest financial meltdowns we've ever seen. Property is an illiquid asset so the effect will not be seen for a while yet.

To suggest that there can be a situation where there is a 40%+ fall in equity markets, mass unemployment and a shutdown of the global economy but Irish property prices remain static is insane. I'd suggest reading through some of the threads from 2007/2008 as you can see the same delusion there and we all know how that ended up.

I would seriously love some of what they are smoking, it would soothe the self isolation situation considerably

beauf

Mic 1972 wrote: »

you seem very tunnel visioned about the rental market
It's not an easy business at all, the profit is not as high as you seem to believe
In a time like this it makes a lot of sense for some LL to pull the plug, take a break or sell

According to these forums LL are making vast fortunes especially with AirBNB.
They lose a week or two rent, and suddenly they are destitute and its a fire sale.

Both things can't be true at least not for all of them and not all at the same time.

Likewise a lot of LL don't have mortgages, so they can't all be bankrupted, by missing a month or threes rent.
Sure you'd have to expect that normally when a tenant over-holds. You'd have to have a float to cover such things.
Likewise a boiler could go or a leak or simply refurbishment could cost a few thousand when tenancy changes.

randoplh134

Interested Observer wrote: »

How much rent have you paid in the meantime?

Nice snide remark, i'm sure he'll look back and thank himself for not diving in when everyone else was and saving himself 30-50% of the purchase price ( not to mention the cost of maintaining a property ).

I know many landlords and some are genuinely good people but i can't help but feel karma has well and truly hit some LLs and EAs. Especially the LLs who are absolutely fleecing renters with property in terrible condition, they are well and truly bleeding them dry.

This will come back to bite them when the ar$e falls out of the rental market and most of those tenants find better accommodation and get on the ladder themselves, at much more discounted rate mind you

Wish anyone who is waiting it out the best, enjoy your discounted bargain and don't feel bad about it in the least

randoplh134

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

I'm genuinely amazed that some are considering proceeding with a purchase despite so many unknowns.

Fool me once (2006/2007 ) shame on you. Fool me twice ( Corona Virus economic collapse ) shame on me.

These people have lost the plot i agree.

SozBbz

randoplh134 wrote: »

Fool me once (2006/2007 ) shame on you. Fool me twice ( Corona Virus economic collapse ) shame on me.

These people have lost the plot i agree.

The fact that you seem to view the two as the same says a lot about your economic understanding.

I'd love to know the credentials and actually property experience of all those claiming the end of the world.

beauf

randoplh134 wrote: »

...
This will come back to bite them when the ar$e falls out of the rental market and most of those tenants find better accommodation and get on the ladder themselves, at much more discounted rate mind you ....

Isn't this exactly the reason they were making hay while the sun shone in the first place.

cnocbui

I wonder if those so gleeful at the prospect of property prices falling and them picking up a bargain, will feel quite so delighted, once they are on the property ladder, of the value of their expensive asset falling, when they were hoping to sell?

[Deleted User]

cnocbui wrote: »

I wonder if those so gleeful at the prospect of property prices falling and them picking up a bargain, will feel quite so delighted, once they are on the property ladder, of the value of their expensive asset falling, when they were hoping to sell?

They'll have to get on the ladder in the first place, which by definition is going to be more difficult and potentially a lot more difficult.

awec

cnocbui wrote: »

I wonder if those so gleeful at the prospect of property prices falling and them picking up a bargain, will feel quite so delighted, once they are on the property ladder, of the value of their expensive asset falling, when they were hoping to sell?

If they are on the property ladder.

Let's be absolutely clear here, because it seems to be getting lost, if some people get bargains it's because many more people have been taken out of the market.

That is to say, this notion of "everyone wait, everyone get a bargain" is just not how it works. It's nonsense.

The choice for many people is not overpriced house now or cheap house later. It's overpriced house now vs no house later.

landofthetree

SozBbz wrote: »

The fact that you seem to view the two as the same says a lot about your economic understanding.

I'd love to know the credentials and actually property experience of all those claiming the end of the world.

In 3-4 weeks time everybody will see how bad things are.

Anybody thinking we aren't facing a huge downturn is in for a shock.

SozBbz

awec wrote: »

If they are on the property ladder.

Let's be absolutely clear here, because it seems to be getting lost, if some people get bargains it's because many more people have been taken out of the market.

That is to say, this notion of "everyone wait, everyone get a bargain" is just not how it works. It's nonsense.

The choice for many people is not overpriced house now or cheap house later. It's overpriced house now vs no house later.

This completely.

If lots of people still have buying power - things won't get cheap.

If hardly anyone has buying power, then sure maybe this mythical bargain house will appear - but why do you assume you're going to be one of the lucky few in the position to pounce? Unless you have a tonne of cash, then I doubt it.

SozBbz

landofthetree wrote: »

In 3-4 weeks time everybody will see how bad things are.

Anybody thinking we aren't facing a huge downturn is in for a shock.

It is indeed a boomtime for Doom&Gloom merchants. You're all secretly jizzing yourselves with glee at the prospect the demise of the world economy.

I'll take what I know to be true from years of study of Economics and Behavioural Science and sit tight, thanks.

voluntary

Market crashes are the best times for home upgrade. Even if you sell your place cheaper then you could before, you can then buy a larger/better place also cheaper. More expensive properties lose much more value usually in recessions so you effectively need to add less extra money for a better house in recession.

cnocbui

Absolutely. I think some of those anticipating a bargain may well find they themselves are included among the economic casualty and are no longer in a position to profit by other people's misfortune. Last time this happened after the GFC, at least half the buyers did so for cash and were likely investors. Another consequence of the GFC was many tradesmen left looking for work, ending up in places like Christchurch, New Zealand. That sort of exodus only serves to later increase building costs and severely limit throughput.