Property Market 2020

cnocbui wrote: »

Here we go again, with people having an expectation that a 'fair' price for a house is less than the cost of building it, with the land thrown in for free, of course.. Building new houses will stop and a lot of tradespeople will flee overseas looking for work, again. Ok, maybe that isn't quite what will happen in Dublin, but it could easily happen elsewhere, like it did before.

I'm not mentioning fair anything..... Just my view on what will happen.
Economy dips, house prices dip.

The economy has just tanked.... Hundreds of thousands going on social welfare.

landofthetree

cnocbui wrote: »

Here we go again, with people having an expectation that a 'fair' price for a house is less than the cost of building it, with the land thrown in for free, of course.. Building new houses will stop and a lot of tradespeople will flee overseas looking for work, again. Ok, maybe that isn't quite what will happen in Dublin, but it could easily happen elsewhere, like it did before.

The surveyor firm's figures show the pure construction cost of an average estate home now runs at between €1,260 a sq m to €1,610 a sq m. Linesight bases its calculation on a 100sq m (1,076sq ft) dwelling, implying a total building cost of €126,000 to €161,000 for the average family home.Sep 11, 2018.

Land costs are a big part of the problem.

randoplh134

landofthetree wrote: »

Property market is going into free fall.

This is worse that any recession or even the world wars unless this virus can be sorted with 3-4 months.

Very scary stuff.

I don't think people understand the sheer magnitude of this upcoming depression and complete collapse of all asset classes. Let me explain:

World governments have very little room to maneuver in fixing this or even stop the bleeding, the reason for this is two fold.

A) Interest rates are at zero, there is not much space to move from here.

World governments have announced their solution to this will come in a stimulus package which entails the action to literally print Trillions into the world economy and provide helicopter money to citizens, in the next 4-6 weeks governments of developed countries are expected to gift citizens with 1000 USD/Euro to spend in hopes of resuscitating the economy, this will fail for several reasons:

1) There will not be enough businesses to purchase from as many will still be shut or just reopening. Don't expect a business to shutter for 2 months to just bounce back like nothing has happened.

2) In times of recession humans are reluctant to spend. Expect the money to be hoarded, if spent it will only be on essentials which would have been purchased anyway

3) In the unlikely event if people do spend the money, the majority of the US and other countries will just purchase from Amazon or other big retailer alternatives and not SMEs. Some SMEs will not recover due to this.

As you can see, the global economy has no insurance policy for this. It may be the biggest economic crash in history, for this reason i hope anyone that is considering buying in this climate to seriously reconsider for their own sake.

cnocbui

Here we go again, with people having an expectation that a 'fair' price for a house is less than the cost of building it, with the land thrown in for free, of course.. Building new houses will stop and a lot of tradespeople will flee overseas looking for work, again. Ok, maybe that isn't quite what will happen in Dublin, but it could easily happen elsewhere, like it did before.

Augeo wrote: »

Most pensions are in shares.
I didn't mention anything about people with millions worth of shares.. What exactly are you saying?

I reckon house prices will fall 30% off Jan 20 levels within 18 months

yeah you could be right, that is a reasonable time free. Many posters coming on here as if they have a crystal ball, "property will fall by dramatic amount" "offer 25% less than asking" :rolleyes:

the only thing I would say with near certainty is, prices wont be rising. How much they will fall by, time will tell...

Idbatterim wrote: »

you know many normal people with hundreds of thousands or millions worth of shares. The markets use opportunities like this to make a fortune! Sell off what you have in masses and then buy it back for way less... Of course its possible, you think that will be happening any time soon though?

Most pensions are in shares.
I didn't mention anything about people with millions worth of shares.. What exactly are you saying?

I reckon house prices will fall 30% off Jan 20 levels within 18 months

this is not like the Us, miss a mortgage payment and be out on your ass a week later. Tons of foreclosures and great opportunities for the cash rich! Christ if they couldnt get blatant piss takers and there have been articles on this in the paper recently , if they couldnt get blatant piss takers out when not bothered paying their mortgage, good luck getting genuine cases out in unprecented times like these!

TheSheriff

IndieRoar111 wrote: »

Thank you for this.

We were about to go ahead and purchase in D7 but pulled out today.

The market in D15 is so overpriced it is not even funny. Wouldn't be surprised if there are mini ghost estates for a couple of months in some less desirable parts ( Clonee, Ongar etc).

Houses in D15 and some parts of D7 could realistically drop 30% in a short space of time as they are a complete rip off right now.

We are also going to wait it out for a while we think.

Our perception of what we think property is worth has radically changed in the past two weeks. Where once we thought we'd forever we confined to Dublin with our jobs, well remote working has potentially changed that.

Its a stark realization actually, one that I think many people will have.

This time two weeks ago I was wiling to hand over 500k for a small house in Castleknock, now we are thinking maybe not, maybe we find a company in the future which will facilitate remote working and we just get out of Dublin totally.

One thing Covid-19 is doing is providing plenty of room to think!

Mic 1972 wrote: »

The house market doesn't move at the same speed as the Stock market. it will come down a lot more slowly. Also, once we get into lock down there will be no possibility to do viewings

the housing market moves at a GLACIAL rate! we have massive undersupply. there likely wont be the same emigration release valve this time if the **** hits the fan again. Also the CB lending rules are very prudent for the last few years, the total opposite of the previous boom years!

Augeo wrote: »

Stock market is down about that over last few weeks.
A last week's price €400k house becoming a €280k house is not at all unlikely.

you know many normal people with hundreds of thousands or millions worth of shares. The markets use opportunities like this to make a fortune! Sell off what you have in masses and then buy it back for way less... Of course its possible, you think that will be happening any time soon though?

The Belly

Just had a look at the where our money goes in taxes website.

In 2019 we paid 10 Billion in Debt repayments and EU Contribtions. They could pause that for a start.

Add on the 14 Billion Apple paid in taxes and interest and we have 24 billion to use in this crisis.

Mic 1972 wrote: »

The house market doesn't move at the same speed as the Stock market. it will come down a lot more slowly. Also, once we get into lock down there will be no possibility to do viewings

I didn't comment on how quickly it will happen but you can be fairly sure house prices will fall in similar level to the stock market.

And like houses not many stocks need to change hands for the price to fall. The price is the last recorded transaction.

Augeo wrote: »

Stock market is down about that over last few weeks.
A last week's price €400k house becoming a €280k house is not at all unlikely.

The house market doesn't move at the same speed as the Stock market. it will come down a lot more slowly. Also, once we get into lock down there will be no possibility to do viewings

landofthetree wrote: »

Property market is going into free fall.

This is worse that any recession or even the world wars unless this virus can be sorted with 3-4 months.

Very scary stuff.

Recession is only one side of it. This is going to slowly change they way we live. It will affect economy dynamics on a large scale, some industries will have to reinvent the way they do business. So many new scenarios

Idbatterim wrote: »

what do you deem a short period of time? do you mean a relatively short period given we are dealing with property? like a 12-18 months?

no way they drop that much, without a total implosion of the economy!

Stock market is down about that over last few weeks.
A last week's price €400k house becoming a €280k house is not at all unlikely.

sweetie wrote: »

Not at all. Rent a room is a licensed arrangement, can be terminated by no notice

The govt may want to make changes to that in order to protect lodgers, who knows? It would be unfair considering that most LLs who do that are older people

landofthetree

randoplh134 wrote: »

Just heard the news, 100,000 people have already lost their job in Ireland, it is expected that number may jump to 500,000 within weeks, with a population of 4.8million that is insane. It is predicted the USA may be at 20% unemployment within a month.

Some food for thought for those contemplating purchasing a property in this climate.

Property market is going into free fall.

This is worse that any recession or even the world wars unless this virus can be sorted with 3-4 months.

Very scary stuff.

sweetie

Mic 1972 wrote: »

I heard that, now how does this apply to rent-a-room? I gave notice to my lodgers who both agreed to leave at the end of the month. My decision is related to health concerns rather that ability to pay. I hope I'm not going to be forced to keep people in my house who are going to work by public transports every day

Not at all. Rent a room is a licensed arrangement, can be terminated by no notice

awec wrote: »

On RTE now that the government are looking to outlaw evictions and rent increases for the next 3 months.
Also the big commercial landlords (IRIS REIT, Kennedy Wilson etc) are going to allow rent deferral.

I heard that, now how does this apply to rent-a-room? I gave notice to my lodgers who both agreed to leave at the end of the month. My decision is related to health concerns rather that ability to pay. I hope I'm not going to be forced to keep people in my house who are going to work by public transports every day

randoplh134 wrote: »

Just heard the news, 100,000 people have already lost their job in Ireland, it is expected that number may jump to 500,000 within weeks, with a population of 4.8million that is insane. It is predicted the USA may be at 20% unemployment within a month.

Some food for thought for those contemplating purchasing a property in this climate.

I've been in touch with a recruitment agency on Likedin for a while, today i was told that 90% of open positions are currently on hold. Nobody is hiring in this climate

randoplh134

Just heard the news, 100,000 people have already lost their job in Ireland, it is expected that number may jump to 500,000 within weeks, with a population of 4.8million that is insane. It is predicted the USA may be at 20% unemployment within a month.

Some food for thought for those contemplating purchasing a property in this climate.

IndieRoar111 wrote: »

Thank you for this.

We were about to go ahead and purchase in D7 but pulled out today.

The market in D15 is so overpriced it is not even funny. Wouldn't be surprised if there are mini ghost estates for a couple of months in some less desirable parts ( Clonee, Ongar etc).

Houses in D15 and some parts of D7 could realistically drop 30% in a short space of time as they are a complete rip off right now.

what do you deem a short period of time? do you mean a relatively short period given we are dealing with property? like a 12-18 months?

no way they drop that much, without a total implosion of the economy!

IndieRoar111

TheSheriff wrote: »

Just as a general update for people on my micro-view of the market in D15.

Got an email today from another property we offered 10k under asking on a month back - told at the time the vendor wanted asking.

Vendor now willing to accept our offer should we choose to proceed.

We've spend months making offers on properties and got nowhere. Three previously rejected offers now potentially accepted in the space of two weeks.

Thank you for this.

We were about to go ahead and purchase in D7 but pulled out today.

The market in D15 is so overpriced it is not even funny. Wouldn't be surprised if there are mini ghost estates for a couple of months in some less desirable parts ( Clonee, Ongar etc).

Houses in D15 and some parts of D7 could realistically drop 30% in a short space of time as they are a complete rip off right now.

awec

bubblypop wrote: »

Sure who gets evicted in 3 months anyway? Even if you didn't pay rent from this week onwards, there wouldn't be a notion you would be evicted in 3 months!

Also, the courts aren't even sitting.

Eviction takes longer than 3 months but at least tenants know they won't be getting any letters or pressure from their landlord in that time.

Uglysoik1

TheSheriff wrote: »

Just as a general update for people on my micro-view of the market in D15.

Got an email today from another property we offered 10k under asking on a month back - told at the time the vendor wanted asking.

Vendor now willing to accept our offer should we choose to proceed.

We've spend months making offers on properties and got nowhere. Three previously rejected offers now potentially accepted in the space of two weeks.

I would offer 15k under asking just to see. You might get yourself a bargain here.

Graham

bubblypop wrote: »

Sure who gets evicted in 3 months anyway? Even if you didn't pay rent from this week onwards, there wouldn't be a notion you would be evicted in 3 months!

Also, the courts aren't even sitting.

Makes for good headlines though.

TheSheriff wrote: »

...............

Got an email today from another property we offered 10k under asking on a month back - told at the time the vendor wanted asking.

Vendor now willing to accept our offer should we choose to proceed. .............

They know they won't shift it at asking.
Was having a nosey at €400k new builds a few weeks ago, 10/15 houses in estate still not sold back then. They'll be going nowhere fast now with the current situation.

awec wrote: »

On RTE now that the government are looking to outlaw evictions and rent increases for the next 3 months.

Also the big commercial landlords (IRIS REIT, Kennedy Wilson etc) are going to allow rent deferral.

Sure who gets evicted in 3 months anyway? Even if you didn't pay rent from this week onwards, there wouldn't be a notion you would be evicted in 3 months!

Also, the courts aren't even sitting.

TheSheriff

Just as a general update for people on my micro-view of the market in D15.

Got an email today from another property we offered 10k under asking on a month back - told at the time the vendor wanted asking.

Vendor now willing to accept our offer should we choose to proceed.

We've spent months making offers on properties and got nowhere. Three previously rejected offers now potentially accepted in the space of two weeks.