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Property Market 2020

Bigmac1euro

Maybe an article for “Property Market 2020”
Anyhow looks like developers are going to start strangling supply in order to keep prices in check.

Worth a read anyway.

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/developers-now-fear-flooding-market-as-house-prices-in-decline-38820967.html

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awec

Augeo wrote: »

Uncertain times.
The folk who lost their jobs last week didn't expect to do so.

You seem oblivious to what's going on, have you watched the news at all lately?
I'm genuinely surprised at your comments.

Fair enough, not understanding how value of a property effects LTV and future options, but being oblivious to the current economic situation is baffling stuff.

The folks who lost their jobs last week could have bought property last month. Or they could have bought it in 2012. Job losses affect anyone, not just those who buy at the top.

I doubt anyone who lost their job is going to be selling their home any time soon.

[Deleted User]

awec wrote: »

Why would you have to bail them out? We're talking about negative equity here. We're not talking about non-payers.

Uncertain times.
The folk who lost their jobs last week didn't expect to do so.

You seem oblivious to what's going on, have you watched the news at all lately?
I'm genuinely surprised at your comments.

Fair enough, not understanding how value of a property effects LTV and future options, but being oblivious to the current economic situation is baffling stuff.

awec

Augeo wrote: »

Folk buying at peak prices two weeks later when hundreds of thousands of folk are losing jobs are being reckless IMO.
I hope the rest of us don't have to bail them out in years to come.

Why would you have to bail them out? We're talking about negative equity here. We're not talking about non-payers.

[Deleted User]

Folk buying at peak prices two weeks later when hundreds of thousands of folk are losing jobs are being reckless IMO.
I hope the rest of us don't have to bail them out in years to come.

awec

Augeo wrote: »

Lower rates have always been available for folk with more equity in their property. I'd not bandy about the mugs game spiel if I was coming out with queries about basic stuff to be honest.

Anyone buying at a peak regrets it, prices 2 weeks ago were the peak, without a doubt.

Nothing to suggest this will always be the case. Nothing to suggest that interest rates won't be even lower in future.

If you can afford the payments now, and rates do drop, you'll afford it in future.

If you're constantly annoyed that you're not on the very best rate then you'll never, ever be happy. Someone, somewhere will have always got a better deal than you. Always.

awec

Lads, the way you are talking absolutely nobody would buy at the top and absolutely everyone would buy at the bottom.

This is not reality. It's delusional stuff.

For there to be a top people have to buy. For there to be a bottom people have to stop buying. "Just wait" is a gross over simplication of reality.

[Deleted User]

awec wrote: »

But how do you know lower rates will be available?

Trying to predict interest rates over the course of a mortgage is a mugs game.

Lower rates have always been available for folk with more equity in their property. I'd not bandy about the mugs game spiel if I was coming out with queries about basic stuff to be honest.

Anyone buying at a peak regrets it, prices 2 weeks ago were the peak, without a doubt.

awec

Augeo wrote: »

LTV is important over the course of your mortgage.
Difficult to move to a lower rate etc when you owe €200k on something worth €150k that you paid €230k for.

But how do you know lower rates will be available?

Trying to predict interest rates over the course of a mortgage is a mugs game.

Sheeps

SteelyDanJalapeno wrote: »

It's incredibly foolish to buy something now that looks like it may be worth at least 10% less in a few month time, all this talk of "it's a home for life", "buy what you can afford" and "home owners are not investors" reeks of somebody with an alternative motive.

It's a home for life which may be a worth less soon, meaning mortgage repayments could have been less or a shorter term if they wait.

Buy what you can afford is ridiculous, I can afford to buy a Ferrari on hp but I won't, buy what you absolutely need within your means.

And a house is most people's biggest ever investment, so nobody should really be taking advice from any of these experts on the internet.

After spending the last decade saving money for a house, coming up with the goods of two deposits in order to be able to afford a home, getting evicted and having to move back in with the folks for the last year and a half, there is no alterior motive from me. If there's a risk that I will be stuck with these living arrangements for the forseeable future I will avoid that risk at all costs. It's that simple. No alterior motives. In 20+ years when or if I plan to sell, the market may be restored.

SteelyDanJalapeno

It's incredibly foolish to buy something now that looks like it may be worth at least 10% less in a few month time, all this talk of "it's a home for life", "buy what you can afford" and "home owners are not investors" reeks of somebody with an alternative motive.

It's a home for life which may be a worth less soon, meaning mortgage repayments could have been less or a shorter term if they wait.

Buy what you can afford is ridiculous, I can afford to buy a Ferrari on hp but I won't, buy what you absolutely need within your means.

And a house is most people's biggest ever investment, so nobody should really be taking advice from any of these experts on the internet.

[Deleted User]

Sheeps wrote: »

You only lose money on a property if you sell the property.

That's like saying you only lose money on a car when you sell it. It's worth less then what you paid for it regardless of selling it or not.

I bought my first property in 2005, it was very much lost money at times. Buying now in these few weeks is insanity at prices that were agreed pre Covid 19.

0gac3yjefb5sv7

Sheeps wrote: »

You only lose money on a property if you sell the property.

Also on the larger loan you need & interest for a more expensive property...

Villa05

awec wrote:

By why would people who bought at the top care that prices drop? Itâ€™s totally irrelevant for them.

awec wrote:

The people who got messed up last time were those buying starter homes. Home owners trying to act like investors, thinking theyâ€™d buy then sell on in a few years for profit and a bigger gaff. This is what you want to avoid. These are the people who got stuck in unsuitable accommodation, because these people need to care about prices remaining steady.

absolute nonsense. it is in all our interests to have a steady market. boom bust wrecks families, economies, countries.
many of the people you say got "stuck" got debt write offs, more did not.
Banks developers got bailed out and the bill was passed onto:

compliant mortgage payers,
tax payers,
piled up in a debt mountain for future generations to pay

Sheeps

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

I don’t think anyone should buy something they are guaranteed to lose money on. Living in negative equity should be avoided where possible. I say that as a buyer who will continue to rent for the foreseeable as a result of the crisis. Nobody should proceed with a purchase at this time imo. Pull back your money and wait. You may need the cash you hold, as personal liquidity and mobility is far more important in the midst of a potential economic depression than a family home in negative equity with ~30 years to go on the tab.

You only lose money on a property if you sell the property.

LuckyLloyd

Sheeps wrote: »

The fact is that we are still in a housing and rental crisis. Property prices may fall, but realistically there will be the demand for them. The only question is whether or not they will be able to purchase. If your home is a home for life, or a long term family home you should be trying to close the sale as soon as possible in my view. You will lose money on it, but I'm convinced if you don't buy now, your housing siutation for the long term will be the one you have now. You wont be picking up sweet deals at the bottom of the market.

I don’t think anyone should buy something they are guaranteed to lose money on. Living in negative equity should be avoided where possible. I say that as a buyer who will continue to rent for the foreseeable as a result of the crisis. Nobody should proceed with a purchase at this time imo. Pull back your money and wait. You may need the cash you hold, as personal liquidity and mobility is far more important in the midst of a potential economic depression than a family home in negative equity with ~30 years to go on the tab.

[Deleted User]

awec wrote: »

By why would people who bought at the top care that prices drop? It’s totally irrelevant for them...........

LTV is important over the course of your mortgage.
Difficult to move to a lower rate etc when you owe €200k on something worth €150k that you paid €230k for.

Sheeps

The fact is that we are still in a housing and rental crisis. Property prices may fall, but realistically there will be the demand for them. The only question is whether or not they will be able to purchase. If your home is a home for life, or a long term family home you should be trying to close the sale as soon as possible in my view. You will lose money on it, but I'm convinced if you don't buy now, your housing siutation for the long term will be the one you have now. You wont be picking up sweet deals at the bottom of the market.

voluntary

awec wrote: »

By why would people who bought at the top care that prices drop? It’s totally irrelevant for them.

How it can be irrelevant to anybody to pay for something more then they could? Especially if they're left with a large loan so effectively less disposable income for the next 10,20 or 30 years?

,

awec

Mic 1972 wrote: »

I have to disagree with that. Investors are key players too in the property market

They do, but when I say homeowners I mean people who own their own home.

When you buy a house for your family, you’re not an investor. You’re buying your home, your main concern is suitability, security, schools etc, you’re not focused on making profit.

Mic 1972

awec wrote: »

No skin in the property game. I have stock, but in it for the long game so unconcerned.

The graph that gets posted here often is pretty stupid in fairness. Gross oversimplification of reality. Fails to portray that homeowners are not investors for one thing. Makes it appear that anyone who buys at the top is going to lose out, again not reality.

I have to disagree with that. Investors are key players too in the property market

awec

Reversal wrote: »

Property isn't an investment for most. Yet, the feeling that they may have bought at the top is enough to keep some people coming back to this thread to try and convince others, or more likely themselves that prices won't drop.

I read some of the old threads from 2006/7 on here recently. Different market mechanisms, same denial.

By why would people who bought at the top care that prices drop? It’s totally irrelevant for them.

On most streets in the country, neighbours will have all paid vastly different sums for their homes. That’s just reality. It is nonsensical to compare.

Someone, somewhere will always get a better deal than you. Find a house you like, that you can afford, that you can live in long term, buy it and get on with your life.

The people who got messed up last time were those buying starter homes. Home owners trying to act like investors, thinking they’d buy then sell on in a few years for profit and a bigger gaff. This is what you want to avoid. These are the people who got stuck in unsuitable accommodation, because these people need to care about prices remaining steady.

Reversal

Property isn't an investment for most. Yet, the feeling that they may have bought at the top is enough to keep some people coming back to this thread to try and convince others, or more likely themselves that prices won't drop.

I read some of the old threads from 2006/7 on here recently. Different market mechanisms, same denial.

Villa05

awec wrote:

The graph that gets posted here often is pretty stupid in fairness. Gross oversimplification of reality. Fails to portray that homeowners are not investors for one thing. Makes it appear that anyone who buys at the top is going to lose out, again not reality.

I see your point, however housing has been made an investment vehicle by consecutive government administrations. Section 50 Reits etc.
Therefore housing gets more aligned to investment cycles.

Graham

Mod Note

randolph134, please read the forum charter before posting again. Pay particular attention to the section regarding bashing of particular groups/demographics.

awec

randoplh134 wrote: »

Couldn't get hold of an EA to save your life over the past couple of years, now they are responding to messages and issuing outbound calls left right and center. A buddy of mine has pulled out of a property and the EA is hounding them, will likely get a great reduction but looks like he will play the long game.

Must you persist posting this rubbish? I think you can make your points without literally making things up.

randoplh134

Couldn't get hold of an EA to save your life over the past couple of years, now they are responding to messages and issuing outbound calls left right and center. A buddy of mine has pulled out of a property and the EA is hounding them, will likely get a great reduction but looks like he will play the long game.

randoplh134

OwlsZat wrote: »

Please stop posting in this thread.

Agreed, i suspect it's trolling at this stage, it is either a childish response or nitpicking and totaling ignoring the fact they have been proved wrong. It often derails the thread.

awec

JamesMason wrote: »

I suspect your skin in the game/REITs are in free fall. What comes after denial on that famous graph again?

No skin in the property game. I have stock, but in it for the long game so unconcerned.

The graph that gets posted here often is pretty stupid in fairness. Gross oversimplification of reality. Fails to portray that homeowners are not investors for one thing. Makes it appear that anyone who buys at the top is going to lose out, again not reality.

PommieBast

Computer Science Student wrote: »

What do people anticipate will happen to income tax for those still in employment. In other words, how high can they go ?

I think there's a significant chance that anyone who could survive unassisted is going to get screwed. I don't feel comfortable keeping €300k in bank deposits.

Mad_maxx

randoplh134 wrote: »

Nonsense.

All asset classes were severely over priced, this inflated bubble was about to pop regardless of the virus. I honestly expected it to pop in 2021 ( after the US elections ), the virus has just sped the process up.

We were approaching the end of the longest bull market in history which only existed because we printed our way out of the last recession and did not address the underlying issues, this was going to occur soon either way.

Even prior to the corona onslaught, stocks in Europe were barely higher than twenty years ago

Only the U. S has had a stock market boom