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Property Market 2020

Bigmac1euro

Maybe an article for “Property Market 2020”
Anyhow looks like developers are going to start strangling supply in order to keep prices in check.

Worth a read anyway.

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/developers-now-fear-flooding-market-as-house-prices-in-decline-38820967.html

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fliball123

Mic 1972 wrote: »

You provided another good reason why demand will decrease. Old people dying and freeing houses. rRgarding foreign workers going back home, if they need to do it their own countries will take care of that, this is normal procedure in an emergency. People were flown back from China during the outbreak, they didn't have to provide for themselves

So where do we put the 5/6 million Irish people living abroad who are all going to flood home? Some people will die unfortunately it may bring some properties onto the market but the underlining demand will still be there, people will still have to rent and rents are high. Ireland are lucky there are nearly 300k people working in multinationals so work from home very little effect, same goes with the public sector 300k who will continue to get paid no matter if they work or not. You can then add in about half of SMEs who can work from home that is about 250k working in SMES so 125k. So we will still have at least two thirds of people who were working will be getting paid if the worst happens. I work for an SME and its business as usual our company were all working from home since last year it was the way most IT and computer using companies having been doing business over the last decade. So if people are arguing supply will be increased due to foreign people leaving cant leave out the fact that we have a diaspora that is huge and percentage wise probably one of the highest. Why would these Irish people not want to come home and only foreign people will want to get out of Ireland. Your argument does not hold up

ebayissues

Pheonix10 wrote: »

Is there any precedent for this? Genuinely curious. When is the last time this drop happened?

I believe spx drop 50% - from 2007 - 2009.. it took 2 yrs to get to approx 50% drop.

...................edited...................

[Deleted User]

Pheonix10 wrote: »

Is there any precedent for this? Genuinely curious. When is the last time this drop happened?

2007 / 2008. It wasn't this fast though.

0gac3yjefb5sv7

Augeo wrote: »

30% off the FTSE100 and 20% off the S&P500.
Similar off most major Irish stocks in last 2 / 3 weeks.
Property will follow, an absolute certainty.

Is there any precedent for this? Genuinely curious. When is the last time this drop happened?

ittakestwo

landofthetree wrote: »

140,000 people have been laid off work.

70,000 restaurant workers, 50,000 bar staff, plus 20,000 crèche and childcare workers.

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0316/1123480-coronavirus-ireland/

Need to add a few thousand EA's to that list.

[Deleted User]

Pheonix10 wrote: »

...........
No one knows. However, prices are more likely to come down as the economy slows down. Could be 10pc/20pc/40pc. No one knows.

30% off the FTSE100 and 20% off the S&P500.
Similar off most major Irish stocks in last 2 / 3 weeks.
Property will follow, an absolute certainty.

fliball123

Pheonix10 wrote: »

Everyone is 100pc sure demand will remain or fall.

Sellers obviously saying its a small blip, buyers saying it will fall by a huge amount.

No one knows. However, prices are more likely to come down as the economy slows down. Could be 10pc/20pc/40pc. No one knows.

True no one knows anyone telling you to buy or sell should stop. No one knows I would hold on until corona is gone and see what way the land lies. After that if there is a drop and I was selling I would rent it out until the prices comes back up and as night follows day after a price drop there will be price rise followed by a price drop and on and on. No point in taking a bath unless you need to and the rental market is going to be buoyant the argument of people will leave and go home means we could have 5/6 million Irish people living in other countries coming home and needing somewhere to live. Anyone buying I would hang on as well as there may well be a drop but who knows..

Mic 1972

fliball123 wrote: »

How do you know if people have family back here and a chance that mam and dad may pass away due to this if they are in a mobile industry such as IT then they could easily relocate back home. So your guessing that outflow would be lower your also ignoring the fact that the world is in effect in lockdown no flights in or out will be the norm for the next few weeks so unless all of the foreign workers plan to build an ark and sail home the numbers in and out will likely be close to nil

You provided another good reason why demand will decrease. Old people dying and freeing houses. rRgarding foreign workers going back home, if they need to do it their own countries will take care of that, this is normal procedure in an emergency. People were flown back from China during the outbreak, they didn't have to provide for themselves

0gac3yjefb5sv7

Everyone is 100pc sure demand will remain or fall.

Sellers obviously saying its a small blip, buyers saying it will fall by a huge amount.

No one knows. However, prices are more likely to come down as the economy slows down. Could be 10pc/20pc/40pc. No one knows.

fliball123

Millionaire only not wrote: »

They’ll let the staff draw there stamps and still charge the fees ! Probably be win for them !

I doubt it they cant stand by asking parents to pay and then not pay their staff there would be uproar and parents would point blank stop paying

fliball123

Assetbacked wrote: »

To be fair, a huge cohort of the non-Irish in Ireland work in the industries most likely to be exposed, i.e. Hospitality and big tech multinationals. Their outflow would likely be lower than the net inflow of Irish returning.

How do you know if people have family back here and a chance that mam and dad may pass away due to this if they are in a mobile industry such as IT then they could easily relocate back home. So your guessing that outflow would be lower your also ignoring the fact that the world is in effect in lockdown no flights in or out will be the norm for the next few weeks so unless all of the foreign workers plan to build an ark and sail home the numbers in and out will likely be close to nil

Mic 1972

Sheeps wrote: »

Demand isn't going to disappear. House purchases will stall. That is all.

The need to buy a house will stay, demand will disappear if people lose access to credit. Needs and demand are not the same thing

smurgen

fliball123 wrote: »

Myhome already just in one day down nearly 40 properties taken out of the supply side I wonder how many more properties will be taken off the market until the virus clears and prices resume where thye were. People saying there will be a price drop, how can there be a drop if sellers, buyers, EAs , Banks etc are gone into hiding and transactions withering down to zero?? I reckon between now and the end of the summer there will be less than 100 properties bought or sold only those in trouble and needing to sell will sell and buyers needing to buy the stock of good available property will be at a minimum

These prices aren't going to be back where they were for 10 years I reckon.

fliball123

Assetbacked wrote: »

Then when it does pick up, presumably there will be a glut of properties back on the market at the same time hut the buyers will be working on building up savings again from what they had to use to get through this crisis or else they'll have lost their jobs or suffered wage cuts meaning less can be borrowed. The rental crisis may jot be so bad as well which means people could be less likely to rush to buy if their rent was actually close to what a mortgage would cost.

Also a glut of buyers will be there as well before corona where was a serious lack of supply and an over demand.

randoplh134

Sheeps wrote: »

Demand isn't going to disappear. House purchases will stall. That is all.

I'll have some of what you're smoking

OwlsZat

Sheeps wrote: »

Demand isn't going to disappear. House purchases will stall. That is all.

There's 140k people let go already. The suppy demand curve is going to be turned upside down. Prices are going to fall.

landofthetree

fliball123 wrote: »

Yeah seen that surely government will force banks to give a 3/6 month holiday on mortgages and pay rents for those not working. If all non nationals return home then by your logic we are in more trouble supply wise as we have more Irish people living outside of ireland than in the country so where to we put all of these people when people return to their home country?

Banks cant hold out that long.

Also:

ECB’s Lagarde to coronavirus-ravaged Italy: you’re pretty much on your own

https://fortune.com/2020/03/13/ecb-lagarde-coronavirus-italy/

Sierra Oscar

Sheeps wrote: »

Demand isn't going to disappear. House purchases will stall. That is all.

Demand will fall if people's own economic situation changes and they are either unable to buy or wish to hold off until there is more certainty around their jobs and wages.

Millionaire only not

fliball123 wrote: »

You can take creche workers out of it as if you dont pay your creche fees your kid loses his/her place in the creche or that is what we have been told so surely they will pay staff

They’ll let the staff draw there stamps and still charge the fees ! Probably be win for them !

Assetbacked

fliball123 wrote: »

Yeah seen that surely government will force banks to give a 3/6 month holiday on mortgages and pay rents for those not working. If all non nationals return home then by your logic we are in more trouble supply wise as we have more Irish people living outside of ireland than in the country so where to we put all of these people when people return to their home country?

To be fair, a huge cohort of the non-Irish in Ireland work in the industries most likely to be exposed, i.e. Hospitality and big tech multinationals. Their outflow would likely be lower than the net inflow of Irish returning.

Sheeps

Demand isn't going to disappear. House purchases will stall. That is all.

fliball123

SteelyDanJalapeno wrote: »

What about when 150k people lose their jobs here, can no longer afford to pay their rent or mortgages, any non nationals return home and there's all of a sudden a lot of empty houses and landlords not making money, do you think prices will stay high then?

Yeah seen that surely government will force banks to give a 3/6 month holiday on mortgages and pay rents for those not working. If all non nationals return home then by your logic we are in more trouble supply wise as we have more Irish people living outside of ireland than in the country so where to we put all of these people when people return to their home country?

Assetbacked

fliball123 wrote: »

Myhome already just in one day down nearly 40 properties taken out of the supply side I wonder how many more properties will be taken off the market until the virus clears and prices resume where thye were. People saying there will be a price drop, how can there be a drop if sellers, buyers, EAs , Banks etc are gone into hiding and transactions withering down to zero?? I reckon between now and the end of the summer there will be less than 100 properties bought or sold only those in trouble and needing to sell will sell and buyers needing to buy the stock of good available property will be at a minimum

Then when it does pick up, presumably there will be a glut of properties back on the market at the same time but the buyers will be working on building up savings again from what they had to use to get through this crisis or else they'll have lost their jobs or suffered wage cuts meaning less can be borrowed. The rental crisis may jot be so bad as well which means people could be less likely to rush to buy if their rent was actually close to what a mortgage would cost.

randoplh134

SteelyDanJalapeno wrote: »

What about when 150k people lose their jobs here, can no longer afford to pay their rent or mortgages, any non nationals return home and there's all of a sudden a lot of empty houses and landlords not making money, do you think prices will stay high then?

+1 This

SteelyDanJalapeno

fliball123 wrote: »

Myhome already just in one day down nearly 40 properties taken out of the supply side I wonder how many more properties will be taken off the market until the virus clears and prices resume where thye were. People saying there will be a price drop, how can there be a drop if sellers, buyers, EAs , Banks etc are gone into hiding and transactions withering down to zero?? I reckon between now and the end of the summer there will be less than 100 properties bought or sold only those in trouble and needing to sell will sell and buyers needing to buy the stock of good available property will be at a minimum

What about when 150k people lose their jobs here, can no longer afford to pay their rent or mortgages, any non nationals return home and there's all of a sudden a lot of empty houses and landlords not making money, do you think prices will stay high then?

randoplh134

OwlsZat wrote: »

HIBERNIA REIT PLC down 33% in the last month too.

There was a reason all the investors in these REITs were cashing out less than 6 months ago. The writing was on the wall ( regardless of the virus ).

fliball123

landofthetree wrote: »

140,000 people have been laid off work.

70,000 restaurant workers, 50,000 bar staff, plus 20,000 crèche and childcare workers.

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0316/1123480-coronavirus-ireland/

You can take creche workers out of it as if you dont pay your creche fees your kid loses his/her place in the creche or that is what we have been told so surely they will pay staff

landofthetree

140,000 people have been laid off work.

70,000 restaurant workers, 50,000 bar staff, plus 20,000 crèche and childcare workers.

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0316/1123480-coronavirus-ireland/

fliball123

Myhome already just in one day down nearly 40 properties taken out of the supply side I wonder how many more properties will be taken off the market until the virus clears and prices resume where thye were. People saying there will be a price drop, how can there be a drop if sellers, buyers, EAs , Banks etc are gone into hiding and transactions withering down to zero?? I reckon between now and the end of the summer there will be less than 100 properties bought or sold only those in trouble and needing to sell will sell and buyers needing to buy the stock of good available property will be at a minimum

randoplh134

smurgen wrote: »

I never said a pandemic.i said price drops.you spoke of certainty in price stability in an arrogant and dismissive fashion.

It's this guys MO. He's been repeatedly proven wrong so he will nitpick at any unrelated minute detail. It's very childish and derails the thread, best off ignoring it imo.