Off Topic Thread 4.0

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I keep seeing this sentiment and don't know where it's coming from.

If the Republicans fully embrace complete election interference then all bets are off - but the reality is that Trump is a very significant margin behind all of Biden, Warren, Buttigeig, Harris and a number of other Democratic options in swing states. He can't retake the Presidency without those states and they've definitely turned their back on him.

The Coronavirus is also not good news for him. Apart from his age, it's going to kill the one thing he has going for him with moderates - the economy.

I'm open minded to the possibility of him winning again - but I haven't seen any evidence to suggest that it is likely based on current electoral math.

Warren and Buttigieg are gone from the race, Biden is older than Trump too so the coronavirus angle doesn't really apply.

aloooof

Deleted User wrote: »

The finger pointing between China and the US is worrying though and Trump is likely to get very desperate for a distraction in the weeks ahead.

That's something I hadn't considered and is pretty worrying...

Deleted User wrote: »

The Coronavirus is also not good news for him. Apart from his age, it's going to kill the one thing he has going for him with moderates - the economy.

Is it also not the case that the coronavirus will disproportionately kill more of his electorate than the Democrat nomination? That's my impression, but I'm no expert on the demographics.

Squidgy Black wrote: »

Warren and Buttigieg are gone from the race, Biden is older than Trump too so the coronavirus angle doesn't really apply.

I'm just pointing out that you need to go deep into the dem field of candidates to find one who is polling in a way that would make Trump look competitive.

Also - the people who don't like him, despise him, and dem turnout has been repeatedly strong since 2016.

aloooof wrote: »

Is it also not the case that the coronavirus will disproportionately kill more of his electorate than the Democrat nomination? That's my impression, but I'm no expert on the demographics.

It's going to kill a lot of people regardless of who they will vote for, healthcare just become the number 1 issues in the 2020 US elections.

Buer

Deleted User wrote: »

I keep seeing this sentiment and don't know where it's coming from.

If the Republicans fully embrace complete election interference then all bets are off - but the reality is that Trump is a very significant margin behind all of Biden, Warren, Buttigeig, Harris and a number of other Democratic options in swing states. He can't retake the Presidency without those states and they've definitely turned their back on him.

Trump is ahead in some of the key swing stages including Florida and Iowa. It's also pretty much level between him and Biden in places like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Some polls have Trump comfortably ahead in Wisconsin.

Maybe a lock was a stretch but he's absolutely the frontrunner. Biden is very likely to be the candidate running against him and I don't see him getting people out to vote. I've seen the demise of Trump being forecast on here and elsewhere so many times over the past few years. The mid terms will topple him. The impeachment will topple him. It's false dawn after false dawn.

Also, that's a massive, massive "If" on Republicans embracing the election interference. They've ignored every indiscretion/offence thus far; I don't see why that's going to change. The Republican base is a cult more than a political party.

Podge_irl

Not sure polls taken before the candidates are confirmed are all that informative. Ultimately he didn't win by very much and it wouldn't take very much to reverse the result - and this against one of the few people disliked as much as he is. I don't understand how anyone could even see him as a strong favourite.

swiwi_

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I keep seeing this sentiment and don't know where it's coming from.

If the Republicans fully embrace complete election interference then all bets are off - but the reality is that Trump is a very significant margin behind all of Biden, Warren, Buttigeig, Harris and a number of other Democratic options in swing states. He can't retake the Presidency without those states and they've definitely turned their back on him.

The Coronavirus is also not good news for him. Apart from his age, it's going to kill the one thing he has going for him with moderates - the economy.

I'm open minded to the possibility of him winning again - but I haven't seen any evidence to suggest that it is likely based on current electoral math.

Maths Venjur. Unless you’re American yourself?!

Buer wrote: »

Trump is ahead in some of the key swing stages including Florida and Iowa. It's also pretty much level between him and Biden in places like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Some polls have Trump comfortably ahead in Wisconsin.

Maybe a lock was a stretch but he's absolutely the frontrunner. Biden is very likely to be the candidate running against him and I don't see him getting people out to vote. I've seen the demise of Trump being forecast on here and elsewhere so many times over the past few years. The mid terms will topple him. The impeachment will topple him. It's false dawn after false dawn.

Also, that's a massive, massive "If" on Republicans embracing the election interference. They've ignored every indiscretion/offence thus far; I don't see why that's going to change. The Republican base is a cult more than a political party.

If it's 'pretty much level' in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania then it's also pretty much level in Florida.

Went up to the local Tesco there on my lunch break. Plenty of bread and most shelves were full. This is the same place that had to pull down the shutters yesterday evening due to people trying to bull rush the place and people collapsing at tills etc.

Squidgy Black wrote: »

Went up to the local Tesco there on my lunch break. Plenty of bread and most shelves were full. This is the same place that had to pull down the shutters yesterday evening due to people trying to bull rush the place and people collapsing at tills etc.

I was in my local Tesco earlier too (I was not bulk buying toilet roll, I swear) and it was probably busier than usual for the time of the morning but there wasn't a huge mob of people, shelves weren't empty, etc. Generally it was grand.

b.gud

Squidgy Black wrote: »

Went up to the local Tesco there on my lunch break. Plenty of bread and most shelves were full. This is the same place that had to pull down the shutters yesterday evening due to people trying to bull rush the place and people collapsing at tills etc.

Interested Observer wrote: »

I was in my local Tesco earlier too (I was not bulk buying toilet roll, I swear) and it was probably busier than usual for the time of the morning but there wasn't a huge mob of people, shelves weren't empty, etc. Generally it was grand.

I wonder is this because of people copping on and realising that there's not going to be a lockdown on the food supply and that stores will have sufficient supplies for the foreseeable future, hopefully

Or that so many people went out buying like lunatics yesterday that there isn't as much demand today, unfortunately probably the most likely case

Stheno

President of Brazil who had dinner with Trump last week has tested positive for Covid 19

b.gud wrote: »

I wonder is this because of people copping on and realising that there's not going to be a lockdown on the food supply and that stores will have sufficient supplies for the foreseeable future, hopefully

Or that so many people went out buying like lunatics yesterday that there isn't as much demand today, unfortunately probably the most likely case

I think retail excellence and other groups coming out and stating that the supply chains weren't affected yet had a positive effect, for example during the snow storm there wasn't much media attention in terms of saying it was completely unwarranted because the stock is there etc

Dave_The_Sheep

As much as I'd like to agree with Venjur, I have zero faith in US politics, or the people of the US as a whole. Regardless of it potentially being rigged (Replublicans know that in a fair fight they lose every time, so why fight fair?) I fully expect the ginger tosser to be re-elected.

Zzippy

Stheno wrote: »

President of Brazil who had dinner with Trump last week has tested positive for Covid 19

It's the hope that gets you...

Podge_irl

Buer wrote: »

Trump is ahead in some of the key swing stages including Florida and Iowa.

Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania were the 3 closest results and enough to swing the overall outcome. Can not realistically see anywhere he lost swapping across. Florida and Iowa would confirm a strong Dem win rather than being key swing states.

20 new cases today. I think that's fewer than yesterday which surely is a good thing.

prawnsambo

Interested Observer wrote: »

20 new cases today. I think that's fewer than yesterday which surely is a good thing.

Yeah, 27 yesterday. Very good news if it continues like that.

Does anyone have an estimate on how many tests Ireland is doing per day?

prawnsambo

A Canadian team has isolated the virus. That's big from the point of view of testing and developing treatments. As well as a vaccine obviously.

Neil3030 wrote: »

Does anyone have an estimate on how many tests Ireland is doing per day?

The last figure that was posted was around 4-500 per day and they're saying they'll ramp testing up further soon

Squidgy Black wrote: »

The last figure that was posted was around 4-500 per day and they're saying they'll ramp testing up further soon

Thanks.

So ~100 tests per million.

Puts us ahead of Japan but behind the UK.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.statista.com/chart/amp/21108/covid-19-tests-performed-per-million-of-the-population/

bilston

Neil3030 wrote: »

Thanks.

So ~100 tests per million.

Puts us ahead of Japan but behind the UK.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.statista.com/chart/amp/21108/covid-19-tests-performed-per-million-of-the-population/

Think the UK was going to increase tests to 10k per day...however the latest guidance is that unless you have severe symptoms then you don't need to get tested, just sit at home for a week if you have minor symptoms, so in other words a lot of people in the UK will get it and not even know for sure they've had it.

That's why the confirmed cases number is never going to be remotely accurate.

Burkie1203

Some media reporting trump had contracted covid19

Burkie1203 wrote: »

Some media reporting trump had contracted covid19

I've seen reports that there was a second person who visited Mar-a-Lago last weekend who's after testing positive, so that's two people he was in close contact with at a minimum who've had it.

He's finished. Summed up perfectly here: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/peter-wehner-trump-presidency-over/607969/

Neil3030 wrote: »

He's finished. Summed up perfectly here: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/peter-wehner-trump-presidency-over/607969/

It doesn't matter if he goes around the country personally infecting people with the coronavirus, they'll thank him for it and vote for him in November. He is not finished. He should have been finished during the primaries and he should have been finished a dozen times since but he isn't. Nothing is new in that article, it's all correct but Trump has shown nothing here that he hasn't shown time and time again in the past.

Interested Observer wrote: »

It doesn't matter if he goes around the country personally infecting people with the coronavirus, they'll thank him for it and vote for him in November. He is not finished. He should have been finished during the primaries and he should have been finished a dozen times since but he isn't. Nothing is new in that article, it's all correct but Trump has shown nothing here that he hasn't shown time and time again in the past.

I think you're underestimating just how much of a **** show awaits the US right now. Nothing he has said or done comes close to the direct harm that will be inflicted by hundreds of thousands of avoidable deaths of US citizens. Nothing ANY president has said or done will come close to it.

My biggest fear is actually that he'll have one last asinine play with the military to try create a distraction.

Former Former

Neil3030 wrote: »

He's finished. Summed up perfectly here: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/peter-wehner-trump-presidency-over/607969/

I think you'd be demoralised to know just how few Americans pay any close attention to the news.

Trump will find a way to spin this, Facebook will kick in and he'll romp home.

errlloyd

Trump may weasel out of this, but I do appreciate him putting Mike Pence in direct control.

We'll lose at least one of them.