Mic 1972 wrote: » Where do you get the impression that the economy will be all hunky dory in the foreseeable future? I'm looking at Italy at the moment, do you think people are even concerned about going to the bank to apply for a mortgage? This is coming to Ireland in 1-2 week, I'm expecting major changes
fliball123 wrote: » Where are you getting the info that there is going to be a halt?? how will demand dry up or supply overflow to facilitate this halt?
Mic 1972 wrote: » The market will get to a halt for the next few months Cash buyers might take their chances if prices go down, but anybody else who needs a mortgage i personally have doubt they get access to credit
fliball123 wrote: » Even with all the new developments daft and myhome have less properties advertised now then they did 6 months ago. Just saying if your premise is right and we are at the top why are there so few properties up for sale? I still argue that point state of emergency or not people need to live somewhere. By not building it will only make it worse
Mic 1972 wrote: » I've seen new properties popping in the area and bracket taht I've been monitoring, but given the current state of emergency all of this is going to get to a halt
fliball123 wrote: » Well they dont seem to be flipping as the amount of property up on line on daft myhome etc is very low
J_1980 wrote: » Only positive thing about Coronavirus is, that it’ll cripple public finances. No more social housing pipe dreams and xmas bonuses for lifetime dolers When SF come into power (which will eventually happen) they'll fail like any other left wing government....
Mic 1972 wrote: » You are not an investor Investors sell at the peak of the market and buy when price is low. Property market is peaking and it's facing trouble, if you have an empty property to flip this is a good time
Mic 1972 wrote: » I see many weak arguments there - As an investor where do you put your money? Definitely not in the property market at its peak right before global instability - As a LL you might want to capitalize on peak prices before things get worse. People will scale down their expectations on buying a house if jobs are lost, thus prices will be affected - During the last recession we saw more people leaving then entering the country. If Ireland enters a lock down stage some people may feel safer staying where they are
fliball123 wrote: » What ignores what?? I am asking you if you were an investor and do what all investors do what would you invest in? If I had a buy to rent apartment bringing in a profit after tax and other expenses a month I wouldnt be selling it.
fliball123 wrote: » No sign of rentals drying up anytime soon you have to remember 12 odd years of little or no building, 12 years of increased immigration inward to Ireland, 12 years of people living longer and 12 years of people having more kids. they all need a place to live. If you bring the virus argument into play and think people will go home, then by that argument there are more Irish people living outside of Ireland than in the country. So by that rule we will need even more housing. People can not have this every way. If Ireland are facing difficulties it means the rest of the world are as the same dynamics and issues are there too. As for investors where do you put your money stocks are unstable and it is costing an investor to keep money in savings or do you keep your 1 bed apartment in dublin making a profit for you. No need to pay out solicitor fees or EA fees or capital gains tax. For me its a no brainer you keep the property let the Corona virus storm blow out which it will once a proper treatment has been found and that will be sooner rather than later.
Assetbacked wrote: » Past performance is not a guide to future performance. "Yields are too good" you have said, meaning they will remain too good? you are viewing it in a vacuum, ignore any possibility for market corrections by making this statement. It is complacent and a bit reckless. Also your claim that they are not "debt financed" is completely wrong. https://www.independent.ie/business/commercial-property/ires-reit-raises-200m-to-help-repay-credit-facility-39035290.html
Assetbacked wrote: » Why would you sell it? Unless it was decreasing in value and/or rental income was drying up.
Assetbacked wrote: » This ignores any potential market risks.
fliball123 wrote: » Once again think logically where would investors invest..Irelands rental market if flying where would you put your money if you were an investor.
J_1980 wrote: » They are not debt financed. These are cash buyers. Pull money and invest where???? -1% interest bearing bonds?? For international investors who have a reference interest rate of 0% (unlike the 2.5% for Irish mortgage buyers) it takes a lot to make it unattractive. I’d go so far as they can leave half the block empty (like capital Dock) and won’t care one bit. Yields are too good.
Assetbacked wrote: » It could also cause investors to pull their money as they get spooked and be forced to sell their built-to-let apartment blocks to individual purchasers which of course would be great news.
Mic 1972 wrote: » Emigration People go away if jobs becomes available somewhere else, or they go back home where they may have a family house to live in A shrinking economy is not going to draw people
J_1980 wrote: » IRES far outperformed actual house price growth from mid17 onwards. It’s just back there. Most of the big drops (11th Dec19 -7% /27thFeb20 -6%) were on the back of rent freeze law news.
landofthetree wrote: » 1. Europe was struggling badly before the virus came along.https://mobile.twitter.com/PaulSommerville/status/1237696060509884416 2. The USA is in a really bad position to deal with a downturn. The idiot Trump has the budget deficit up to 4.9% of GDP. 3. It's pure guesswork to suggest it's temporary. Nobody can say that.
SozBbz wrote: » What are you even talking about? How is facts about how viruses behave and the steps the scientific community are making to stop this particular one anything to do with 2007? This is temporary and has a specific identifiable cause. It is not an economic house of cards falling over. If you want to always believe the worst, then thats your prerogative, but I'll thank you not to quote my posts as an excuse to spout irrelevant nonsense thats nothing to do with what I said.
landofthetree wrote: » The old soft landing theory like in 2007. Let's be honest. If the US tanks then we will all suffer.
Assetbacked wrote: » I disagree and it is still in freefall. It is reflecting a potential lack of demand/hit to rents it receives as companies potentially move towards home office work for the coronavirus scare and beyond. https://live.euronext.com/en/product/equities/IE00BJ34P519-XMSM Look at the 1YR, 3YR and 5YR graphs; it is back to where it was in May 2017 right now and seems to still be dropping. For context, the high in the last 5 years was only in December, 2019. Today it is 28% lower since then.
SozBbz wrote: » I really doubt it. This will come to an end. There are 20 seperate projects to find a vaccine, at least 2 of which are at human testing already. They are estimating September. They are also finding existing drugs can have a positive effect on the virus - ie drugs that are already passed safe to use. I heard on Pat Kenny this morning about an anti inflammatory drug for arthritis thats had 80% effect on inflammation in the lungs and drastically cut the mortality rate of those treated. So, perfectly safe, available immediately, its just an off lable use of a drug if you will, that improves outcomes. They also mentioned virus blocking drugs that were developed in the Ebola crisis a few years back and how they're looking to have some impact on Covid19. This is temporary. This will pass. We will be ahead of it for next year. Necessity is the mother of invention and all that. People are not going to uproot their whole lives for something that is not permanent.
