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Property Market 2020

Bigmac1euro

Maybe an article for “Property Market 2020”
Anyhow looks like developers are going to start strangling supply in order to keep prices in check.

Worth a read anyway.

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/developers-now-fear-flooding-market-as-house-prices-in-decline-38820967.html

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fliball123

Mr Hindley wrote: »

In a brief break from the (probably quite accurate) 'we're all buggered' theme, I got told today that a property I wanted to view has just gone for 75k over the asking price. So the fearmongering / impending economic calamity, depending on your school of thought, hasn't penetrated through to the property market just yet...

Where was the property?

JamesMason

Mr Hindley wrote: »

In a brief break from the (probably quite accurate) 'we're all buggered' theme, I got told today that a property I wanted to view has just gone for 75k over the asking price. So the fearmongering / impending economic calamity, depending on your school of thought, hasn't penetrated through to the property market just yet...

Wow that's bravery!

Mr Hindley

fliball123 wrote: »

Where was the property?

Dun Laoghaire. Shame, it looked ideal for me, but no way I could stretch to that price even in normal times.

https://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-sale/dun-laoghaire/6-clarinda-manor-dun-laoghaire-dublin-2412523/

I'm certainly starting to feel nervous about putting an offer on anything now, especially as the value of my savings take a hit from the collapsing stock market..!

guarcross

we went sale agreed in november and due to solicitors pace etc have not signed contracts yet. property is in southeast, large town central and is suited to elderly relative coming to stay with us. Because we need it to be suitable for them there aren't many properties that fit the bill. Also not many places to rent and so having found this house we are now in a bit of a quandry given the likely recession coming down the line.
what are peoples thoughts on proceeding with purchase vs more renting / moving and waiting for financial armageddon - how long will it take to filter through to house prices?
Just wondering what peoples thoughts are given multiple factors involved.

Zenify

Mr Hindley wrote: »

Dun Laoghaire. Shame, it looked ideal for me, but no way I could stretch to that price even in normal times.

https://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-sale/dun-laoghaire/6-clarinda-manor-dun-laoghaire-dublin-2412523/

I'm certainly starting to feel nervous about putting an offer on anything now, especially as the value of my savings take a hit from the collapsing stock market..!

Asking price is very low. 3 bed semi in dun laoghaire for less than 500k. That was always going to go above asking. Using that as an example for properties going above asking is a little silly IMO.

enricoh

Mr Hindley wrote: »

Dun Laoghaire. Shame, it looked ideal for me, but no way I could stretch to that price even in normal times.

https://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-sale/dun-laoghaire/6-clarinda-manor-dun-laoghaire-dublin-2412523/

I'm certainly starting to feel nervous about putting an offer on anything now, especially as the value of my savings take a hit from the collapsing stock market..!

It might be back up on daft in a month or two- there'll be a fair few deals that'll kick with all the uncertainty.
Banks will start tightening the purse strings fairly lively. Join the public sector pronto!

dubrov

Zenify wrote:

Asking price is very low. 3 bed semi in dun laoghaire for less than 500k. That was always going to go above asking. Using that as an example for properties going above asking is a little silly IMO.

I wouldn't agree with that at all. It's only 79m2 and previous sale prices on that street suggest that is way above the recent market

ZX7R

guarcross wrote: »

we went sale agreed in november and due to solicitors pace etc have not signed contracts yet. property is in southeast, large town central and is suited to elderly relative coming to stay with us. Because we need it to be suitable for them there aren't many properties that fit the bill. Also not many places to rent and so having found this house we are now in a bit of a quandry given the likely recession coming down the line.
what are peoples thoughts on proceeding with purchase vs more renting / moving and waiting for financial armageddon - how long will it take to filter through to house prices?
Just wondering what peoples thoughts are given multiple factors involved.

if its going to be your long term family home and you think you jobs are secure
buy it,our government have but half there reserves into fighting the current situation.Buy it although there is a lot of doom and gloom this is not the same as the property bubble bust.
There is safe guards in place to bolster our economy.
the euro is strong against the dollar.
The consensuses is the world economy will start to stabilize in two months

[Deleted User]

V lucky I sold the few places I had in Dublin, I felt we were close to the top of a cycle but couldn’t imagine things would take this turn.
If the death toll is severe as feared there will be an awful lot of properties for sale next year. This is the worst crisis in generations, dark days, we will have a lot more to worry about than the price of property very soon.

19233974

ZX7R wrote: »

if its going to be your long term family home and you think you jobs are secure
buy it,our government have but half there reserves into fighting the current situation.Buy it although there is a lot of doom and gloom this is not the same as the property bubble bust.
There is safe guards in place to bolster our economy.
the euro is strong against the dollar.
The consensuses is the world economy will start to stabilize in two months

coronoavirus has barely begun in europe and the US, i went on holidays a little over a week ago and italy had 700 cases, when i returned they had 7000+ and you think the european economy will be stabilised in 2 months? :pac:

PommieBast

guarcross wrote: »

we went sale agreed in november and due to solicitors pace etc have not signed contracts yet.

Everyone in the process seems dead slow. I (supposedly) won the bidding on a place last month, but given the circumstances they should be rushing before I change my mind...

Also not many places to rent and so having found this house we are now in a bit of a quandry given the likely recession coming down the line.
what are peoples thoughts on proceeding with purchase vs more renting / moving and waiting for financial armageddon - how long will it take to filter through to house prices?

I think buying is the less of two evils, at least for anyone who doesn't have financing issues. Paying €20-30k in rent a year takes the sting out of even a 20% drop in sale prices.

FernandoTorres

ZX7R wrote: »

if its going to be your long term family home and you think you jobs are secure
buy it,our government have but half there reserves into fighting the current situation.Buy it although there is a lot of doom and gloom this is not the same as the property bubble bust.
There is safe guards in place to bolster our economy.
the euro is strong against the dollar.
The consensuses is the world economy will start to stabilize in two months

This seems to be the common narrative but is there any evidence to suggest that things will stabilise? Italy who are now experiencing the horror of what can happen seem to be the only ones taking radical action. The others, especially US and UK seem to very much be going for the head in the sand approach. Without major action things are only going to get worse on the virus front and if there is major action then pretty much all major economies will go into recession. I can't see how any of that works out in two months.

FutureGuy

We just have contracts signed on a house now - 20k under the asking price in a nice area of Limerick City. I'm certain we will see a correction in the pricing in the country but to be honest, I'm glad to have somewhere now.

Mic 1972

19233974 wrote: »

coronoavirus has barely begun in europe and the US, i went on holidays a little over a week ago and italy had 700 cases, when i returned they had 7000+ and you think the european economy will be stabilised in 2 months? :pac:

The global economy will be redesigned by this ove the next few months. The virus is not going away until we have a vaccine
I have money in the bank and had been thinking to invest in property, I'm going to hold off until end of the year

ittakestwo

If rents stay high and banks are still lending then I cant see prices falling much. Unless there is job losses then rents wont fall and demand will stay high.

Mic 1972

Italy is suspending mortgage payments due to the virus, time to get real here too
this is going to hit on the Irish economy

https://in.reuters.com/article/healt...-idINR1N2A900G

benjy1000

No I dont think so

JohnnyChimpo

benjy1000 wrote: »

No I dont think so

well thats a relief

19233974

i personally think most ireland is going to go the way of italy eventually, seeing how the HSE are handling this. Theres no cohesive plan for GPs, public health is a joke and we have missed the boat in terms of any sort of containment.

However i just cant see how this is going to impact house prices, the only way i can see it happening is a firesale from the big landlords and realistically in what scenario would they do that?

Assetbacked

Assetbacked wrote: »

Ires is trading at its lowest for a year.

https://live.euronext.com/en/product/equities/IE00BJ34P519-XMSM

All gains since August 2017 now gone for IRES. Its price has been steadily falling since the end of February.

https://live.euronext.com/en/product/equities/IE00BJ34P519-XMSM

Mad_maxx

Assetbacked wrote: »

All gains since August 2017 now gone for IRES. Its price has been steadily falling since the end of February.

https://live.euronext.com/en/product/equities/IE00BJ34P519-XMSM

those reits were never a good tracker of the on the ground market , they are just stocks at the end of the day and thus drop sharply with the rest of the equity market , movements in ires tell us nothing about the property market overall

Cuddlesworth

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Italy is suspending mortgage payments due to the virus, time to get real here too
this is going to hit on the Irish economy

https://in.reuters.com/article/healt...-idINR1N2A900G

Don't we still have the worst mortgage arrears in the world? Whats the difference?

Mic 1972

Cuddlesworth wrote: »

Don't we still have the worst mortgage arrears in the world? Whats the difference?

what i see here is the risk of domino effect kicking in
mortgages not being paid > banks not lending > potential buyers shrinking > properties not being sold

SozBbz

Mic 1972 wrote: »

what i see here is the risk of domino effect kicking in
mortgages not being paid > banks not lending > potential buyers shrinking > properties not being sold

Virologist on Newstalk this morning saying that he's cautiously optimistic that this will be rough for a few weeks but will get better.

If we can limit the spread now, the better weather coming into the spring will naturally work against the virus and we stand a good chance of getting on top of it.

Work is already underway on a vaccine for next year (special dispensation has been granted to expedite the usual procedures for research), with human studies kicking off in London this week. They are also testing medicines that worked on other coronaviruses (like SARS) and seeing if they can be adpated to fight Covid19.

This will cause people to possibly hold off selling for a while but they're just going to sell in the autumn instead. They're not going to panic and suddenly start selling their houses for a drastic reduction.

We'll probably see low volumes for a while yet but I really don't think this is going to have any lasting impact on house prices. Housing is not one of those markets where stock has to be sold in a certain window or its ruined. It can take months to sell houses anyway, so this is just a complicating factor, but its not fatal.

Cuddlesworth

Mic 1972 wrote: »

what i see here is the risk of domino effect kicking in
mortgages not being paid > banks not lending > potential buyers shrinking > properties not being sold

How does implementing government lead mortgage deferrals not lead to that exact same situation? I think the only difference between here and Italy is it probably doesn't take tens of thousands in legal fees over multiple years to evict.

fliball123

19233974 wrote: »

i personally think most ireland is going to go the way of italy eventually, seeing how the HSE are handling this. Theres no cohesive plan for GPs, public health is a joke and we have missed the boat in terms of any sort of containment.

However i just cant see how this is going to impact house prices, the only way i can see it happening is a firesale from the big landlords and realistically in what scenario would they do that?

I dont understand people thinking this. People want to make money. The Corona virus is in all parts of the world or will be. People have to live somewhere, the markets are crashing and it costs money to keep in savings. Where would the big landlords put their money . People virus free or not have to live somewhere. If I was a big landlord I would be sitting back and taking my very very generous rent income

lastusername

There was a guy on Newstalk this morning saying he runs a barber shop in Kilkenny with 6 staff and he's not sure what's going to happen with his business if they start closing things down in towns and cities - the St. Patrick's Day parade gave them a little boost each year as well.

Same would be the case for businesses reliant on offices staying open - cafes, restaurants, etc too.

The key is to keep it all in perspective and to ensue business as usual as much as possible. I am hopeful we'll contain this - the fact that spring and summer are on the horizon will help too!

19233974

lastusername wrote: »

There was a guy on Newstalk this morning saying he runs a barber shop in Kilkenny with 6 staff and he's not sure what's going to happen with his business if they start closing things down in towns and cities - the St. Patrick's Day parade gave them a little boost each year as well.

Same would be the case for businesses reliant on offices staying open - cafes, restaurants, etc too.

The key is to keep it all in perspective and to ensue business as usual as much as possible. I am hopeful we'll contain this - the fact that spring and summer are on the horizon will help too!

There is no containing this, it already has community transmission. We can limit spread which means business as usual is the worst thing we could do as it would just prolong it.

but nonetheless, i cant see how this will have any meaningful impact on property prices

Mic 1972

Cuddlesworth wrote: »

How does implementing government lead mortgage deferrals not lead to that exact same situation? I think the only difference between here and Italy is it probably doesn't take tens of thousands in legal fees over multiple years to evict.

It does in Italy too. Evicting home occupiers is always costly and painful

Mic 1972

19233974 wrote: »

There is no containing this, it already has community transmission. We can limit spread which means business as usual is the worst thing we could do as it would just prolong it.
but nonetheless, i cant see how this will have any meaningful impact on property prices

Correct. Business as usual is what lead to the outbreak in Italy