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Brexit discussion thread XII (Please read OP before posting)

ancapailldorcha

This is the twelfth incarnation of our Brexit discussion thread.

I appreciate that the end of Brexit is or may be in sight (insofar as one can be certain) but please bear the following in mind before posting:

Insults directed at popular figures are not acceptable in this forum
Please do not post memes, videos or comedy links here
Please do not be uncivil to other posters
Please use the report function to alert the mods when necessary
Discussion of Sinn Féin's longstanding policy of abstention from Westminster is not suitable for this thread. Posts on this subject may be deleted

Previous thread is here:

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058016732

United Ireland thread:

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058014553

Scottish Independence thread:

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058023269

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timetogo1

[Deleted User] wrote: »

The issue isn't new whatsoever. It has always been implied and I could have told you this in 2016. It's a logical conclusion to the UK leaving.

Probably new to some. Some of the Brexit stuff is blindingly obvious but if you don't spell it out Brexiters ignore it or maybe legitimately never had it occur to them.

RobMc59

I just watched a very interesting interview on sky news.An alleged financial expert claims that the EU risks a financial crisis similar to the US crash in 2007-2008 as a result of something called systemic risk-is this more brexiteer codswallop or is there any truth in it?

Nody

RobMc59 wrote: »

Not according to this and many other articles which report barnier saying no Canada style deal.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-politics-51549662

EU offered a 100% tariff free trade deal to the UK which exceeds Canada's 98% tariff free deal; however as in the Canada deal that do comes with stipulations on state aid etc. as you can read in section 7 of the CETA deal or section 17, 22 & 23 on fair trade rules. You know the stuff Boris says he will not accept as it's somehow impinges on UK's sovereignty but that's part of the Canada deal he's claiming to want.

fash

Bit cynical wrote: »

Yes recently the EU said that, due to the UK's proximity to the EU, a Canada style deal was not possible. But this reference to the UK's proximity only came about when the UK called their bluff and said that they would opt for such a deal. The position up to that point was that a Canada-style deal was possible.

A Canada deal was and is always possible subject to the UK taking on board suitable level playing field provisions corresponding to the level of tariff and quota free access sought. The biggest problem is that given that a deal because to be completed by September ( because the UK has set this unnecessary deadline), the only way to make a deal in the time available is a "zero tariff zero quota" deal. Every other form of a deal would involve a decade of painstaking like by line review and negotiation of tariffs and quotas. As tariff and quota free access is exceptional and the UK is right next door, of course LPFs have to be even higher than otherwise the case. Given how untrustworthy the UK is, this is even more important.
Hence it is the UK which has made a "Canada-" deal impossible with its timeline and is unwilling to take the only Canada deal therefore possible - a Canada+ deal.

black forest

So the official statement from No.10 is out. Have to digest that one this evening in full. The first analysis doesn’t look too good.

https://twitter.com/thomashcole/status/1232981247443570689?s=21

Threadreaderapp

The full text from UK Gov.

Don’t know where to start. It looks as if the UK haven’t read the statement of the EU. Looks like cake and cherries all over again. This will be an interesting reading evening.

fash

RobMc59 wrote: »

Not according to this and many other articles which report barnier saying no Canada style deal.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-politics-51549662

That's because the article is reductionist nonsense and not reflecting what Barnier is saying- either historically or now. No, the UK cannot simply scribble out the word "Canada" in CETA and then write "UK" in biro in it and hand that over to the EU as its homework. That was never on offer.

Nor in any case would the UK likely want that: the UK probably doesn't want an "all the maple syrup, poutine and hockey pucks you can export" deal.

Furthermore, it is the UK which is now imposing the biggest difficulties onto a deal - requiring everything to be wrapped up by September. By definition that means only a simplified "all or nothing" deal is possible.

BonnieSituation

Bit cynical wrote: »

The issue of geographical proximity is new. I don't think even commentators on this thread raised it until the EU put out briefings suggesting it was an issue. No mention of it before that.

However the key point is that negotiations will proceed.

It really isn't. It has been mentioned umpteen times throughout the many iterations of this thread.

It's also so self-evident that you would think that it doesn't need to be mentioned. Maybe it does...

Nody

black forest wrote: »

Don’t know where to start. It looks as if the UK haven’t read the statement of the EU. Looks like cake and cherries all over again. This will be an interesting reading evening.

"We want all the benefits of EU, being a close member of EU and being Japan at the same time and if you don't give it to us we'll hump and stump around until you do." The funniest part though was were UK says they want to be treated as an equal to EU though; someone has a career as a comedian without knowing it.

Sam Russell

BonnieSituation wrote: »

It really isn't. It has been mentioned umpteen times throughout the many iterations of this thread.

It's also so self-evident that you would think that it doesn't need to be mentioned. Maybe it does...

I think it came as a big surprise to Dominic Raab when he discovered how close Calais was to Dover. And that was when he was Brexit Secretary.

BonnieSituation

RobMc59 wrote: »

I've said many times I'd prefer to follow EU standards and as you say,the EU isn't a benevolent organisation that has any obligations to the UK which as you point out is a 3rd party.No one expects kid gloves treatment it's well documented the lengths the EU will go to to control situations-I believe the UK will walk away and take the fallout rather than agree to what is pretty reasonable in my eyes(following EU standards).
Ads bygoogle's earlier post on what approach the EU should take isn't that far from the truth. If they think they can crush the UK as they are doing to Greece,they will.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/2018/10/a-greek-tragedy-how-the-eu-is-destroying-a-country/

The UK consistently expect the "kid glove" treatment.

I mean just today they are shouting about leaving the negotiations before they even start. The expectation before was that the adult EU woudl step in and make them feel all warm on fuzzy.

The EU is benevolent to its interests and its members. The UK is not a member and it has ceased to be interesting.

Threatening peace in my country makes the UK interesting in the sense that they are clearly warped and have no idea of what the consequences of any of their actions are. Personally I hope the UK suffers endless after endless unmitigated embarrassments and suffering after they have spat consistently in the Irish and EU faces that were merely trying to facilitate their self-harm. By voting in a Tory majority even after all of this I say good day to Britain. Don't let the door hit you on the way out in June.

An Ciarraioch

Non-EU immigration to the UK has reached an all-time record high, according to the Office for National Statistics, while EU migration continues to fall (in absolute terms, but not net):

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8050963/Migration-Britain-outside-EU-hits-highest-level-ever.html#comments

Frank Bullitt

https://twitter.com/Emmabarnett/status/1233059690755641344

The control over not saying "No Deal" is going to be tiring. Fair play to Barnett for going after her on this.

Professor Moriarty

At this stage, I would suggest that Barnier enter negotiations full of bonhomie and positive statements of intent. As soon as Frost declares that Britain won't adhere to the WA agreed by Johnson, Barnier should stand up and walk out declaring that negotiations are at an end. Then he should let the clock tick.

Frank Bullitt

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-27/johnson-gives-eu-four-months-to-make-a-brexit-deal-or-he-walks

Boris Johnson Gives EU Four Months to Make a Brexit Deal — Or He Walks

How exactly is this a threat to the EU?

ancapailldorcha

Gintonious wrote: »

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-27/johnson-gives-eu-four-months-to-make-a-brexit-deal-or-he-walks

How exactly is this a threat to the EU?

It isn't. It's posturing for the British public.

The EU are doing what they've been doing since day one; hoping for the best, preparing for the worst while protecting the integrity of the single market. The WA, if Britain adheres to it eliminates the worst of a no deal Brexit from a European perspective. If Britain wants a no deal and all that that entails then that option is open to them.

Nody

Gintonious wrote: »

How exactly is this a threat to the EU?

Same way the previous threats were: "We will shoot ourselves in the gonads if you don't give us everything we want, trust us we really really will, come on now you'll feel really bad about it and you'll get splatter on you and stuff".

PopePalpatine

Gintonious wrote: »

https://twitter.com/Emmabarnett/status/1233059690755641344

The control over not saying "No Deal" is going to be tiring. Fair play to Barnett for going after her on this.

I'm sure Leni Kuensberg is going to have a word with her.

Frank Bullitt

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1233094625809838080

This is a terrifying thread...terrifying.

serfboard

Gintonious wrote: »

The control over not saying "No Deal" is going to be tiring. Fair play to Barnett for going after her on this.

Orwell, again:

1984 wrote:

Don't you see that the whole aim of Newspeak is to narrow the range of thought? In the end we shall make thoughtcrime literally impossible, because there will be no words in which to express it.

Nody

Gintonious wrote: »

This is a terrifying thread...terrifying.

When until you get to the replies; then even a double Picard handpalm is not enough to express what you feel.

Professor Moriarty

Gintonious wrote: »

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1233094625809838080

This is a terrifying thread...terrifying.

I like this line from one comment regarding people's acceptance of the Tory hard Brexit: The frog has been boiled.

sondagefaux

Sam Russell wrote: »

I think it came as a big surprise to Dominic Raab when he discovered how close Calais was to Dover. And that was when he was Brexit Secretary.

In the minds of many Brexiteers, and also many Tory MPs, the USA, or at least an idealised version, is the society they think (or want), the UK most resembles.

In some respects, this would-be closeness to the USA in socio-economic terms seems to have affected their awareness of *where* the UK is geographically located.

sondagefaux

Bit cynical wrote: »

The issue of geographical proximity is new. I don't think even commentators on this thread raised it until the EU put out briefings suggesting it was an issue. No mention of it before that.

However the key point is that negotiations will proceed.

It was one of the factors mentioned by the EU27 as affecting a potential EU-UK trade deal back in 2017...

sondagefaux

Xertz wrote: »

I was just watching Ian King live on Sky News and some city banker was going on about how the Eurozone risk was being mitigated by the City of London and more or less openly threatened that if they were cut out the US and UK would have to “cauterise the risk” of the Eurozone from the global economy.

It came across as really agressive stuff, basically threatening to damage the Eurozone if the UK doesn’t get market access for financial services.

Seems the gloves may come off on both sides yet.

(I’ll update a link here when I find it)

There have been w*nker banker types predicting the collapse of the euro around the place for years.

Enzokk

Gintonious wrote: »

This is a terrifying thread...terrifying.

Here is the threadreader page of the twitter thread, makes is easier to read.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1233094625809838080.html

I am not sure if it was linked but here is Peter Foster on the idea of Johnson ripping up the WA and where it leaves the EU in response.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1232951489435402241.html

It seems to me, with the post about No.10 telling MP's to stop talking about no-deal and Johnson seemingly happy to walk away, they are preparing the country to leave without a deal and if need be to ignore the WA. I think if Trump is reelected in November it is almost certain to happen and the UK to go with a US FTA that is quickly negotiated.

Hermy

Enzokk wrote: »

...if Trump is reelected in November...

Just supposing instead it's Sanders how would that play out?

[Deleted User]

sondagefaux wrote: »

In the minds of many Brexiteers, and also many Tory MPs, the USA, or at least an idealised version, is the society they think (or want), the UK most resembles.

In some respects, this would-be closeness to the USA in socio-economic terms seems to have affected their awareness of *where* the UK is geographically located.

Ireland shares many of the aspirations that the UK has as well.

Begs the question, which is it for many Irish, Boston or Berlin?
Brexit seems to have brought out many of the Berliners, but what about the US leaning people?

[Deleted User]

sondagefaux wrote: »

There have been w*nker banker types predicting the collapse of the euro around the place for years.

There is a sector of the financial community that has been trying to crash the Euro for years, in the early 2000s the Euro was valued at less than the US dollar. ECB were forced to prop it up for a while, the same type of financiers who made a killing when they knocked the pound out of the ERM a decade earlier.

An Ciarraioch

Deleted User wrote: »

Ireland shares many of the aspirations that the UK has as well.

Begs the question, which is it for many Irish, Boston or Berlin?
Brexit seems to have brought out many of the Berliners, but what about the US leaning people?

In terms of our socioeconomic choices (public services versus tax cuts) and political priorities, such as investment in a public health system, we're certainly much ideologically closer to Europe than the US, also the US has become much more socially conservative than Ireland over the last decade, particularly over moral, cultural and religious issues.

Imreoir2

Bit cynical wrote: »

The issue of geographical proximity is new.

Clearly you have not been paying attention. It is not new at all.