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Brexit discussion thread XII (Please read OP before posting)

ancapailldorcha

This is the twelfth incarnation of our Brexit discussion thread.

I appreciate that the end of Brexit is or may be in sight (insofar as one can be certain) but please bear the following in mind before posting:

Insults directed at popular figures are not acceptable in this forum
Please do not post memes, videos or comedy links here
Please do not be uncivil to other posters
Please use the report function to alert the mods when necessary
Discussion of Sinn Féin's longstanding policy of abstention from Westminster is not suitable for this thread. Posts on this subject may be deleted

Previous thread is here:

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058016732

United Ireland thread:

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058014553

Scottish Independence thread:

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058023269

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BonnieSituation

10000maniacs wrote: »

No, but he should have known well not to trust Johnson at his word. I mean a few weeks earlier Johnson was closing down democracy to get his way.

That post still blames Varadkar.

ambro25

Daemonic wrote: »

Not Brexit related.

https://twitter.com/Schiphol/status/1228305135031418881

Why is Schipol training new border staff?

Similar lengthy 'teaser' delays attributable to Brexit preparations have been experienced by Eurostar and Eurotunnel travellers in the past few months.

An Ciarraioch

Full trade figures for 2019 have been published - more exports going to Germany this year than to GB, which now accounts for 8.8% overall:

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/gei/goodsexportsandimportsdecember2019/

Enzokk

Tony Connelly has been getting a lot of interesting information about the NI Protocol and what it actually entails. I maybe reading too much into this but if he is getting the information given to him then it must be a concern for the EU.

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1228345214135394304?s=20

I will also link the last tweet in the thread as well,

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1228345231969587206?s=20

So basically the EU is worried the UK is misreading the deal they agreed to and will not put controls in place as they believe the FTA will mean no checks will need to be done. But surely the UK should know that if there is no alignment with EU standards and tariffs then checks has to take place? I can grasp this so people who are educated in private schools and have university degrees should be able to understand this simple point. The EU will not allow the UK to gamble on no infrastructure being in place and thus forcing a deal that minimizes the need for checks just because it is convenient and expedient. They want those checks to be carried out, and if it turns out they aren't needed then no harm done.

10000maniacs

BonnieSituation wrote: »

That post still blames Varadkar.

Not really. You can interpret what I said how you choose, but grammatically, I did not blame Varadkar when you think about it. Its just a potential consequence of a choice made probably in good faith.

ednwireland

Boris Johnson has canceled his planned trip to the White House after Trump slammed the phone down on him in a moment of 'apoplectic' fury

https://www.businessinsider.com/boris-johnson-cancels-visit-donald-trump-slammed-phone-down-apoplectic-2020-2?r=US&IR=T

hows that trade deal looking now boris ?

Frank Bullitt

https://twitter.com/rtenews/status/1228361780772118529

Looking like an interesting year ahead.

listermint

Gintonious wrote: »

https://twitter.com/rtenews/status/1228361780772118529

Looking like an interesting year ahead.

I'm actually not even sure what they are up to at this stage.

I mean who's the audience now? Domestic stuff was won. Is this guff for international audience... The ones they want to do deals with....

It's absolutely perplexing if anything I'd firmly believe it's to make as much money out of disaster capitalism and then jaunt off into the sunset.

10000maniacs

Gintonious wrote: »

https://twitter.com/rtenews/status/1228361780772118529

Looking like an interesting year ahead.

Normal service has been resumed. The Sinn Fein Irish government negotiators won't be as understanding and trusting as the Fine Gael ones were.

Strazdas

listermint wrote: »

I'm actually not even sure what they are up to at this stage.

I mean who's the audience now? Domestic stuff was won. Is this guff for international audience... The ones they want to do deals with....

It's absolutely perplexing if anything I'd firmly believe it's to make as much money out of disaster capitalism and then jaunt off into the sunset.

The exact same questions in my mind when I saw the headline. Trying to appease Leave voters and the Daily Telegraph? A dig at the EU maybe? Who even benefits from this? I assume he is quoting Johnson and Cummings parrot fashion.

gooch2k9

He's peddling the same lie about re-opening the WA.

I could easily see the transition period not lasting its term if this carries on.

lawred2

listermint wrote: »

I'm actually not even sure what they are up to at this stage.

I mean who's the audience now? Domestic stuff was won. Is this guff for international audience... The ones they want to do deals with....

It's absolutely perplexing if anything I'd firmly believe it's to make as much money out of disaster capitalism and then jaunt off into the sunset.

I've reached not caring stages. Finally. I simply don't care. I think we will actually be better off without their toxicity.

[Deleted User]

listermint wrote: »

I'm actually not even sure what they are up to at this stage.

I mean who's the audience now? Domestic stuff was won. Is this guff for international audience... The ones they want to do deals with....

It's absolutely perplexing if anything I'd firmly believe it's to make as much money out of disaster capitalism and then jaunt off into the sunset.

"I appreciate what Michel Barnier says, he's a very good man trying to do a good job for the EU.

"But this is also the man who said we couldn't open the Withdrawal Agreement.

"Our Prime Minister got that agreement open, got a new agreement. We've got it through parliament, we've left the European Union.

"And we're going to build for a better economy for the whole of the United Kingdom as one.

"We are absolutely clear. As a UK government, we will not be having a border down the Irish Sea."

I don't even know what to say.

lawred2

Strazdas wrote: »

The exact same questions in my mind when I saw the headline. Trying to appease Leave voters and the Daily Telegraph? A dig at the EU maybe? Who even benefits from this? I assume he is quoting Johnson and Cummings parrot fashion.

It's pointless. Brexiteers on the street have moved on. It's done for them. They aren't paying attention to this stuff any more. Not sure what the point is. Sowing discord everywhere maybe.

Frank Bullitt

gooch2k9 wrote: »

He's peddling the same lie about re-opening the WA.

I could easily see the transition period not lasting it's term if this carries on.

Once I read that part regarding the WA, I knew he was full of hot air.

The EU will make minced meat out of them in the negotiations.

Strazdas

Gintonious wrote: »

Once I read that part regarding the WA, I knew he was full of hot air.

The EU will make minced meat out of them in the negotiations.

But there must be a reason he is saying this. There's no way a yes man like him would go on a solo run....he must be quoting what his master Johnson told him.

Strazdas

lawred2 wrote: »

It's pointless. Brexiteers on the street have moved on. It's done for them. They aren't paying attention to this stuff any more. Not sure what the point is. Sowing discord everywhere maybe.

There is one obvious theory though. Lewis is telling the truth in fact and his govt is planning for No Deal in January.

lawred2

Strazdas wrote: »

There is one obvious theory though. Lewis is telling the truth in fact and his govt is planning for No Deal in January.

Good luck to them.

Gerry T

Strazdas wrote: »

There is one obvious theory though. Lewis is telling the truth in fact and his govt is planning for No Deal in January.

But this has been agreed in the WA, it forms part of an treaty. The EU won't let the UK back off this, the funny part will be the UK being taken to the ECJ and having their arse handed to them.

For the UK more worryingly will be the fact other countries are watching how they are being less than honest and trustworthy, it doesn't bode well for UK future trade deals

Strazdas

lawred2 wrote: »

Good luck to them.

Given the bombast and the rhetoric at the moment, you would have to think it's quite likely.

I heard an observer saying this week they had never seen trade talks get off to such a bad start : one side firing cheap shots and digs at the people they want a trade deal from. Maybe the truth is they don't want any FTA.

BonnieSituation

10000maniacs wrote: »

No, but he should have known well not to trust Johnson at his word. I mean a few weeks earlier Johnson was closing down democracy to get his way.

10000maniacs wrote: »

Not really. You can interpret what I said how you choose, but grammatically, I did not blame Varadkar when you think about it. Its just a potential consequence of a choice made probably in good faith.

I'm interpreting the language as written. That's all.

Doesn't matter anyway.

BonnieSituation

10000maniacs wrote: »

Normal service has been resumed. The Sinn Fein Irish government negotiators won't be as understanding and trusting as the Fine Gael ones were.

That's irrelevant.

Julian Smith was actually on top of his brief like no one since Hain. He worked really well with SF.

How he even got NI in the first Johnson cabinet I don't know.

Lewis is a patsy and a yes man.

lawred2

BonnieSituation wrote: »

That's irrelevant.

Julian Smith was actually on top of his brief like no one since Hain.

Lewis is a patsy and a yes man.

Far too on top of his brief. Actually gave some thought to soldiers engaging in extra judicial murders rather than the comic book Mark Francois view of men in uniforms..

Sad times.. in the space of one week NI has lost both Simon Coveney and Julian Smith.

Tea Shock

listermint wrote: »

I'm actually not even sure what they are up to at this stage.

I mean who's the audience now? Domestic stuff was won. Is this guff for international audience... The ones they want to do deals with....

It's absolutely perplexing if anything I'd firmly believe it's to make as much money out of disaster capitalism and then jaunt off into the sunset.

It's not for an audience. It's for a negotiation strategy. They are putting a possibility of a border in Ireland back on the table as a threat. Exactly as I always predicted they would.

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=112094982&postcount=4812

Threatening them with the European Court action is pointless too. They won't even show up.

Capt'n Midnight

In and of itself this should be easy to sort out but too many of these and the EU will be more worried about data sharing and it's citizens rights.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-51486511

PSNI data: European court rules ID policy breaches human rights
...
the PSNI were only empowered to delete biometric data and photographs "in exceptional circumstances".

Notes
Most people in NI are entitled to EU citizenship.
Besides it's not an EU court. European Court of Human Rights includes Greenland and Russian

moon2

Tea Shock wrote: »

It's for a negotiation strategy. They are putting a possibility of a border in Ireland back on the table as a threat. Exactly as I always predicted they would.

I don't understand the mechanism under which they could put a border within Ireland. Could you explain? Is it simply that they're going to renege completely on the withdrawal agreement, or wilfully misinterpret it? Or are you concerned they would put one in place even though there's no requirement to have one due to the provisions contained within the withdrawal agreement?

Leroy42

Tea Shock wrote: »

It's not for an audience. It's for a negotiation strategy. They are putting a possibility of a border in Ireland back on the table as a threat. Exactly as I always predicted they would.

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=112094982&postcount=4812

Threatening them with the European Court action is pointless too. They won't even show up.

Exactly. The UK always said that the border agreement should be part of the trade talks, and did everything to get their way.

Even if put up a border, it will be so meaningless and open to political whim as to be worthless. They have no intention of abiding by the WA.

As they see if, Johnson managed to get the EU to shift its position. We might look at it and say not really, but they see it as him doing the impossible. And he would have got more only that the HoC was tieing his hands.

Freed from that he now has the ability to drive straight at the EU. He is banking on the likes of Poland, Germany and France to look at the real possibility of no deal and the impacts on their economies. Macron cannot afford a French recession. Merkel is busy trying to find a successor and hold off the rises of AfD.

The EU will be faced with No Deal and having a prolonged fight or making a deal. They are banking on pragmatism and using Trumps 'make them think you are crazy enough to do anything'

I'm not saying it will work, just that is my reading of it. They have nothing to lose. Any normal deal is way worse that the EU deal they had, so it's a 'double bluff all chips in' move.

And let's face it. Thatcher bullied them back in the day, and even Cameron got some small concessions so why not again?

Tea Shock

moon2 wrote: »

I don't understand the mechanism under which they could put a border within Ireland. Could you explain? Is it simply that they're going to renege completely on the withdrawal agreement, or wilfully misinterpret it? Or are you concerned they would put one in place even though there's no requirement to have one due to the provisions contained within the withdrawal agreement?

There would be a border in Ireland due to a dishonoured WA for the exacr same reasons as there was going to be for no WA at all. The EU/Ireland would be forced to erect one to protect the single market and the UK would also be forced to erect one under WTOs most favored nation rules

Frank Bullitt

https://twitter.com/mikegalsworthy/status/1228090287395876864

The insanity continues. How was she not called out on this???

CelticRambler

Leroy42 wrote: »

The EU will be faced with No Deal and having a prolonged fight or making a deal. They are banking on pragmatism and using Trumps 'make them think you are crazy enough to do anything'

I can quite believe that Downing Street might be thinking along those lines, already planning to flagrantly ignore the "Irish Border" part of the WA, and expecting the EU to blink at the 11th hour.

What they won't be expecting is for the EU to remind them, at 1 minute to midnight on the 31st of December, that
(a) the WA also included commitments regarding the status of UK and EU citizens in their respective host countries, which immediately become void if one part of the treaty is torn up;
(b) the EU has decided to unilaterally apply certain concessions to UK-based operators, e.g. in respect of cross-channel transport by truck and plane, which can [and will] be suspended with effect from 00:01 01/01/2021; and
(c) if the UK cannot be trusted to stand by agreements it has already signed, then it will be treated as an untrustworthy third country in respect of every aspect of ongoing arrangements.

This'll have the effect of pissing off one hell of a lot of British voters, trying to travel or do business over and into the New Year, with or without children and animals, and you can be damn sure that the EU will have its spokespeople primed to say to every UK journalist: "We had an agreement, and Boris Johnson tore it up. If we can't trust him with a simple three-point treaty, there's no point in discussing things further." Don't forget: the EU has 'form' in this regard - ask Switzerland!