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GE2020

Brussels Sprout

5 seats, all of the sitting deputies are running again.

Deputy Simon Harris (Fine Gael),
Deputy Andrew Doyle (Fine Gael),
Billy Timmins (Fine Gael),
Deputy Pat Casey (Fianna Fáil),
Deputy Stephen Donnelly (Fianna Fáil),
Deputy John Brady (Sinn Féin),
Cllr. Paul O’Brien (Labour Party),
Cllr. Jennifer Whitmore (Social Democrats),
Sharon Briggs (People Before Profit),
Cllr. Steven Matthews (Green Party),
Seamus Connor (Aontu),
Eileen Gunning (National Party),
Cllr. Joe Behan (Independent),
Cllr John Snell (Independent),
Charlie Keddy (Independent),
Daragh Fitzgerald (Independent),
John Larkin (Independent)

Who's most likely to lose their seat, if any, and who's in with a shot of replacing them?

Will negative headlines around his management of the health portfolio damage Simon Harris's vote getting ability?

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Working class heroes

One Rathdrum box Brady took 45% of the vote. I find that staggering.

There was two SF seats here if they had have ran a candidate from Arklow.

prunudo

Mortelaro wrote: »

I've a strong feeling now that Valerie Cox might take a seat

So did I, surprised she's so low on the tallys.

loyatemu

Brady, Harris, Whitmore definitely

then 1 FF (I reckon Casey could get ahead of Donnelly on transfers from Behan and Cox, but it'll be close)

Bunfight for the final seat, depends on whether Matthews can pick up a good chunk of Brady's surplus, otherwise Timmins or Doyle might get in ahead of him.

Working class heroes

loyatemu wrote: »

Brady, Harris, Whitmore definitely

then 1 FF (I reckon Casey could get ahead of Donnelly on transfers from Behan and Cox, but it'll be close)

Bunfight for the final seat, depends on whether Matthews can pick up a good chunk of Brady's surplus, otherwise Timmins or Doyle might get in ahead of him.

Casey very unlikely. Timmons will elect Doyle. Timmons is too isolated to pick up much transfers.

Tippex

Working class heroes wrote: »

One Rathdrum box Brady took 45% of the vote. I find that staggering.

There was two SF seats here if they had have ran a candidate from Arklow.

I would imagine they are kicking themselves for not running more than one candidate in a number of constituencies not just wicklow.
It would have been an absolute game changer for them (hindsight is a wonderful thing)

BoJack Horseman

Whoever runs FG in Wicklow should be sacked.

Despite everything, their vote was well above national average in Wicklow.... yet they had the stupidity of running 3 candidates.

Had they resisted taking back in the past-it Timmins, there was a slim chance they could have returned 2 seats.
But that vote was instead split

B0jangles

Am I right in thinking it now looks like being Brady, Harris, Whitmore, Donnelly and Matthews?

Working class heroes

B0jangles wrote: »

Am I right in thinking it now looks like being Brady, Harris, Whitmore, Donnelly and Matthews?

Looks that way.

u140acro3xs7dm

B0jangles wrote: »

Am I right in thinking it now looks like being Brady, Harris, Whitmore, Donnelly and Matthews?

Doyle has overtaken Matthews for the last spot. Joe Beehans transfers will decide it.

murpho999

Thought Donnelly was in trouble yesterday.

His vote really dropped compared to 2016.

Interesting fight for last seat.

Woudn't Behan's transfers mostly go to Matthews, especially with both being Bray candidates?

Mortelaro

Madalynn Old-fashioned Human wrote: »

Doyle has overtaken Matthews for the last spot. Joe Beehans transfers will decide it.

Doyle gone all 5 seats filled
Matthew's green taking the last

So its Brady whitmore Harris Donnelly and Mathews

loyatemu

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

Whoever runs FG in Wicklow should be sacked.

Despite everything, their vote was well above national average in Wicklow.... yet they had the stupidity of running 3 candidates.

Had they resisted taking back in the past-it Timmins, there was a slim chance they could have returned 2 seats.
But that vote was instead split

Timmins hoovers up the west wicklow vote, there's no guarantee those votes would have gone to Doyle. Also if they hadn't taken him back, Timmins may well have run as an independent.

I'm happy with the result, glad to see Matthews and Whitmore get in.

prunudo

loyatemu wrote: »

Timmins hoovers up the west wicklow vote, there's no guarantee those votes would have gone to Doyle. Also if they hadn't taken him back, Timmins may well have run as an independent.

I'm happy with the result, glad to see Matthews and Whitmore get in.

Its a good diverse spread of TD's, just a shame they're all from the north east of the county. Hopefully they don't forget about the southern and western electoral districts.

tradtshirt

prunudo wrote: »

Its a good diverse spread of TD's, just a shame they're all from the north east of the county. Hopefully they don't forget about the southern and western electoral districts.

Maybe time to redraw the electoral boundary. 75% of the constituency population is in Braystones.
Bray to be subsumed to Dublin South, Greystones to East Finchley :rolleyes:.

loyatemu

tradtshirt wrote: »

Maybe time to redraw the electoral boundary. 75% of the constituency population is in Braystones.
Bray to be subsumed to Dublin South, Greystones to East Finchley :rolleyes:.

it's nowhere near 75%. Population of the county is 140K, but the constituency also includes a bit of Carlow.

Bray, Greystones, Kilcoole, Enniskerry combined populations are probably around 60K.

tradtshirt

loyatemu wrote: »

it's nowhere near 75%. Population of the county is 140K, but the constituency also includes a bit of Carlow.

Bray, Greystones, Kilcoole, Enniskerry combined populations are probably around 60K.

Well it was on Billy Timmins' election leaflet so it must be right. Billy wouldn't lie, not that shiny baby face. But seriously the issues in Braystones are not the issues in Shillelagh or Carnew. Braystones feels completely disengaged from rural Wicklow, its suburbia. The Swords of the southside. If Kildare can have 2 constituencies with a marked suburban/rural divide, why not Wicklow.

[Deleted User]

It's one reason bray needs BUDC back.
Too much focus on it for WCC to handle, and Bray's concerns are not WCC concerns.

#Brayxit ðŸ˜‚

[Deleted User]

It's one reason bray needs BUDC back.
Too much focus on it for WCC to handle, and Bray's concerns are not WCC concerns.

#Brayxit ðŸ˜‚

L1011

tradtshirt wrote: »

Well it was on Billy Timmins' election leaflet so it must be right. Billy wouldn't lie, not that shiny baby face. But seriously the issues in Braystones are not the issues in Shillelagh or Carnew. Braystones feels completely disengaged from rural Wicklow, its suburbia. The Swords of the southside. If Kildare can have 2 constituencies with a marked suburban/rural divide, why not Wicklow.

Because the population isn't there to support a 5 seater without some bits of Carlow; let alone 2x3

The 74-77 constituencies put part of Bray in Dublin amongst other changes but were massively unpopular for many, many reasons and was backed out to try keep to county boundaries.

murpho999

loyatemu wrote: »

it's nowhere near 75%. Population of the county is 140K, but the constituency also includes a bit of Carlow.

Bray, Greystones, Kilcoole, Enniskerry combined populations are probably around 60K.

Consitituency is just county of Wicklow since boundary change in 2017.

Annasopra

tradtshirt wrote: »

Maybe time to redraw the electoral boundary. 75% of the constituency population is in Braystones.
Bray to be subsumed to Dublin South, Greystones to East Finchley :rolleyes:.

Nah. It's about 60%

Annasopra

loyatemu wrote: »

it's nowhere near 75%. Population of the county is 140K, but the constituency also includes a bit of Carlow.

Bray, Greystones, Kilcoole, Enniskerry combined populations are probably around 60K.

Carlow is gone. It was returned to Carlos. It amused me that some candidates didn't know.

loyatemu

any map I looked at still had the "head" of Carlow included.

Joeytheparrot wrote: »

Nah. It's about 60%

it's 43% according to the municipal district populations listed here (the MD's would include the surrounding countryside and adjacent villages like Enniskerry and Kilcoole: https://data.gov.ie/dataset/co-wicklow-municipal-districts)

Mortelaro

Carlow is gone for definite since 2017
It's just Wicklow
You'll see that on the Dáil website

Annasopra

loyatemu wrote: »

any map I looked at still had the "head" of Carlow included.

it's 43% according to the municipal district populations listed here (the MD's would include the surrounding countryside and adjacent villages like Enniskerry and Kilcoole: https://data.gov.ie/dataset/co-wicklow-municipal-districts)

I think the electorate size is different from the population size though

loyatemu

Joeytheparrot wrote: »

I think the electorate size is different from the population size though

it is, but I'd imagine the proportion isn't all that different.