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Brexit discussion thread XII (Please read OP before posting)

ancapailldorcha

This is the twelfth incarnation of our Brexit discussion thread.

I appreciate that the end of Brexit is or may be in sight (insofar as one can be certain) but please bear the following in mind before posting:

Insults directed at popular figures are not acceptable in this forum
Please do not post memes, videos or comedy links here
Please do not be uncivil to other posters
Please use the report function to alert the mods when necessary
Discussion of Sinn Féin's longstanding policy of abstention from Westminster is not suitable for this thread. Posts on this subject may be deleted

Previous thread is here:

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058016732

United Ireland thread:

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058014553

Scottish Independence thread:

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058023269

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Nody

Leroy42 wrote: »

But how do they get around the tariffs on imports of all the materials needed? I assume they believe that they can control costs in the UK plant to offset those.

Boris plans to cut import tax to zero on pretty much everything; which is why Canada for example walked out from the talks of a trade deal until they know were UK stands because why offer preferable access to your market if your counterpart offers free market access to everyone.

But since the UK plant currently exports a large portion of their production to the EU, this would actually end up with much advantage to the UK itself.

Nope; they clearly stated WTO tariffs would kill the export market. Hence all they got left is a UK plant to produce cars for the UK market because they will most likely not meet the requirements for domestic share in the cars to make export viable if UK struck a FTA on the topic (55% parts produced in the UK) to steal markets from other brands basically.

BarryD2

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

4 years, dozen mega threads, constant UK backpedaling with EU running circles around them.

And still despite all the EU has done for its members and especially Ireland, we still have this constant "EU will shaft Ireland" nonsense

So I am going to repeat it again.

WE ARE EU

uk is now an outsider in same league as Russia trying to piss into the tent but ending up pissing all over themselves

You'll stand by that theory in a years time??? We'll see

The squeeze will come on us, nothing personal in it - it's just business.

Just like it was 'just business' that continental financial institutions had to be protected from the full implications of their lending losses a few short years ago.

Historically, economically and geographically , we are 'un isle derrière un isle'.

The EU are of course not going to 'shaft Ireland' but nonetheless we're headed for that spot between a rock and a hard place.

Leroy42

BarryD2 wrote: »

You'll stand by that theory in a years time??? We'll see

The squeeze will come on us, nothing personal in it - it's just business.

Just like it was 'just business' that continental financial institutions had to be protected from the full implications of their lending losses a few short years ago.

Historically, economically and geographically , we are 'un isle derrière un isle'.

The EU are of course not going to 'shaft Ireland' but nonetheless we're headed for that spot between a rock and a hard place.

I have no doubt that Ireland is going to do very badly because of the impacts of Brexit. But it will be because of Brexit, the UK, not because of the EU.

When looking at the overall effects, one needs to look at the relative outcomes. Where we end up compared to where we would have ended up without the support of the EU.

The EU can only do so much for us, they are not going to sink the entire EU economy just for Ireland. But they have shown already that they will go a good distance to try to limit the damage.

The WA, do you think we would have got those commitments if the agreement was just between UK and Ireland? It is not about shafting us, no more than the bailout was.

It is about Ireland having to deal with the realities of having our closest neighbour tell us they no longer care out working closely with us as equals and instead wanting to revert back to the old system where thye are in charge.

For Forks Sake

Strazdas wrote: »

That seems to be a lot of ifs and buts and highly speculative. Trying to grow their sales five or sixfold would be a big gamble and could easily fail.

Also, they don't seriously think that 1 in 5 brits actually want to buy a Nissan do they.....

Igotadose

Leroy42 wrote: »

But how do they get around the tariffs on imports of all the materials needed? I assume they believe that they can control costs in the UK plant to offset those.

My reading of it is that they close the EU factories, and produce directly from Japan to service the EU market and move all UK required vehicle production to the UK.

But since the UK plant currently exports a large portion of their production to the EU, this would actually end up with much advantage to the UK itself.

Lest we not forget, the weakening of worker's rights, and the assumed crash in salaries, or at best stagnation at current levels for some time, is good for business owners. So, Nissan might very well be considering reduced labor costs in their calculations. So, cheaper, shoddier cars produced for the UK market in the UK, sounds great to Brexiteers at the top, and shafts the ones that voted for it. And Nissan earns more money as a result. What's not to like?

ancapailldorcha

Igotadose wrote: »

Lest we not forget, the weakening of worker's rights, and the assumed crash in salaries, or at best stagnation at current levels for some time, is good for business owners. So, Nissan might very well be considering reduced labor costs in their calculations. So, cheaper, shoddier cars produced for the UK market in the UK, sounds great to Brexiteers at the top, and shafts the ones that voted for it. And Nissan earns more money as a result. What's not to like?

It's not quite that simply. As Peregrinus has noted, much depends on what, if indeed any trade deal with Brussels is struck. Very close alignment could be good for Nissan but if the UK diverges significantly then it will have to build based on at least two regulatory frameworks, the UK and the EU before we get to the US and so on. That won't be cheap.

I'm not too worried about workers' rights. This is something the EU has prioritised and it would look appalling if such a big employer started watering down wages and protections. The British establishment no longer have the Brussels bogeyman to protect them.

Zubeneschamali

For Forks Sake wrote: »

Also, they don't seriously think that 1 in 5 brits actually want to buy a Nissan do they.....

Not today, no - but in a few years time when they are the only car manufacturer left in England and everything else is a lot more expensive, maybe.

Sam Russell

For Forks Sake wrote: »

Also, they don't seriously think that 1 in 5 brits actually want to buy a Nissan do they.....

Those who buy Mercs and Beemers would not be in the market for a Nissan. 10% extra would be no bother, besides, Mercedes dropped their prices the other year by 10% across the board.

Also, Nissan has a close relationship with Renault who could produce Nissans, if required, within the EU.

Currently, Opel, Nissan, and Renault vans are produced in Luton. Are these vans Nissans, Renaults or Opels?

Perhaps this puff article is making much out of nothing.

Bit cynical

Leroy42 wrote: »

I have no doubt that Ireland is going to do very badly because of the impacts of Brexit. But it will be because of Brexit, the UK, not because of the EU.

Well it could also be because of failure to promote Irish interests within the EU in their upcoming trade negotiations with the UK. We could end up with a very German-centric deal with automotive exports favoured over agriculture for example.

roosterman71

Bit cynical wrote: »

Well it could also be because of failure to promote Irish interests within the EU in their upcoming trade negotiations with the UK.

Luckily the current trade commissioner is an Irishman then. Let's hope he earns his money and works for a good deal for all of the EU, including Ireland

ancapailldorcha

Bit cynical wrote: »

Well it could also be because of failure to promote Irish interests within the EU in their upcoming trade negotiations with the UK. We could end up with a very German-centric deal with automotive exports favoured over agriculture for example.

I think this is unfair. The EU has backed the Irish since the initial negotiations began and, according to Tony Connelly's book (which is well worth a read), the only stumbling blocks the Irish faced in getting their agenda to be adopted at the top level were purely technical.

The UK has been Ireland's biggest market for centuries. It was always going to be impossible to alter that paradigm significantly in a mere few years.

Don't forget, the deal requires unanimous approval across the EU. That's a lot of room for things to go wrong and an excellent opportunity for the Taoiseach to assert Ireland's will.

Leroy42

Bit cynical wrote: »

Well it could also be because of failure to promote Irish interests within the EU in their upcoming trade negotiations with the UK. We could end up with a very German-centric deal with automotive exports favoured over agriculture for example.

You absolutely could, but all the evidence points to the opposite.

Agriculture is not just an Irish thing. It effects all countries, although to more or lessor extent.

But if you believe that argument, then why not that the UK would do the same in terms of their fisheries or similar in order to get services? We have already seen them cut out NI in order to get a step closer.

So all the dumping on parties has come from the UK

First Up

roosterman71 wrote:

Luckily the current trade commissioner is an Irishman then. Let's hope he earns his money and works for a good deal for all of the EU, including Ireland

Hogan getting that job was not a coincidence.

Bit cynical

Leroy42 wrote: »

Agriculture is not just an Irish thing. It effects all countries, although to more or lessor extent.

But if you believe that argument, then why not that the UK would do the same in terms of their fisheries or similar in order to get services? We have already seen them cut out NI in order to get a step closer.

So all the dumping on parties has come from the UK

To a certain extent, however, holding the UK to the border issue suited the EU. It sent a message to other prospective leavers that they would not have an easy time of it. It suited the EU further in that they were able to do this in the guise of helping Ireland. And when the time came to back down on it with the allowance of the NI Assembly members vote, the announcement came from Germany.

Now I am not saying this was a bad thing; the alternative would have been worse, but German economic interests did predominate in the end.

Zubeneschamali

Bit cynical wrote: »

Now I am not saying this was a bad thing; the alternative would have been worse, but German economic interests did predominate in the end.

Eh, what??

Ireland from the outset wanted no border on the island, and that is what we got.

Germany would be quite happy with a Dundalk to Derry canal full of piranhas.

gooch2k9

Bit cynical wrote: »

To a certain extent, however, holding the UK to the border issue suited the EU. It sent a message to other prospective leavers that they would not have an easy time of it. It suited the EU further in that they were able to do this in the guise of helping Ireland. And when the time came to back down on it with the allowance of the NI Assembly members vote, the announcement came from Germany.

Now I am not saying this was a bad thing; the alternative would have been worse, but German economic interests did predominate in the end.

Or maybe it suited them because it reinforced the message that this is a union of equals, and smaller countries won't just be dumped/sacrificed to suit larger ones.

[Deleted User]

Bit cynical wrote: »

Now I am not saying this was a bad thing; the alternative would have been worse, but German economic interests did predominate in the end.

In what way?

Leroy42

Bit cynical wrote: »

To a certain extent, however, holding the UK to the border issue suited the EU. It sent a message to other prospective leavers that they would not have an easy time of it. It suited the EU further in that they were able to do this in the guise of helping Ireland. And when the time came to back down on it with the allowance of the NI Assembly members vote, the announcement came from Germany.

Now I am not saying this was a bad thing; the alternative would have been worse, but German economic interests did predominate in the end.

But again, even if that where true, where does that leave the UK union. The UK went against the wishes of NI, and ignored the vote in Scotland. Now one can argue about Scotland, given the nature of the vote etc, but the DUP clearly expressed, and the Tories were adamant, that no part of the union would be sacrificied. In the end they were more than happy to throw NI away to get what they want.

In any review of the two unions, it is clear which is stronger and more attuned to the members wishes.

BarryD2

Leroy42 wrote: »

I have no doubt that Ireland is going to do very badly because of the impacts of Brexit. But it will be because of Brexit, the UK, not because of the EU.

When looking at the overall effects, one needs to look at the relative outcomes. Where we end up compared to where we would have ended up without the support of the EU.

The EU can only do so much for us, they are not going to sink the entire EU economy just for Ireland. But they have shown already that they will go a good distance to try to limit the damage.

Agreed but does it really matter at the end of the day whether it's the UK or the EU position that damages us. This UK/EU blame game is pointless, we have to realise we are a player on the chess board but only a pawn compared to the knights, bishops and rooks, the heavy hitters.

Has all the potential of not working out very well and as pointed out above, maybe this is not a great general election to win here as a result. The blame game here if/ when things go a bit pear shaped won't be pretty.

Sam Russell

Leroy42 wrote: »

But again, even if that where true, where does that leave the UK union. The UK went against the wishes of NI, and ignored the vote in Scotland. Now one can argue about Scotland, given the nature of the vote etc, but the DUP clearly expressed, and the Tories were adamant, that no part of the union would be sacrificied. In the end they were more than happy to throw NI away to get what they want.

In any review of the two unions, it is clear which is stronger and more attuned to the members wishes.

History tells us that majority rules.

In NI, the Unionists ran a Protestant Government for a Protestant people. Majority rule.

In the UK, the Tories are an English Nationalist party that are determined that English Rule will prevail - over Scotland, and they could not ccare less about Ireland or Wales.

The old West Lothian Question is being answered with this Tory government. F*** Scotland.

Shelga

"We want a comprehensive free trade agreement similar to Canada's but in the unlikely event that we do not succeed then our trade will have to be based on our existing withdrawal agreement with the EU," Mr Johnson said.

What on earth does he mean by this?- he seems to think that if the EU don't offer them the trade terms they want, they can just stay in the transition period forever?

[Deleted User]

Shelga wrote: »

"We want a comprehensive free trade agreement similar to Canada's but in the unlikely event that we do not succeed then our trade will have to be based on our existing withdrawal agreement with the EU," Mr Johnson said.

What on earth does he mean by this?- he seems to think that if the EU don't offer them the trade terms they want, they can just stay in the transition period forever?

Yeah, I thought that part was weird as well. Maybe he just means that the WA stuff about NI will be respected, because that's about all it could mean.

Sam Russell

Shelga wrote: »

"We want a comprehensive free trade agreement similar to Canada's but in the unlikely event that we do not succeed then our trade will have to be based on our existing withdrawal agreement with the EU," Mr Johnson said.

What on earth does he mean by this?- he seems to think that if the EU don't offer them the trade terms they want, they can just stay in the transition period forever?

Does he mean a transition period extension by another name?

Leroy42

It just another version of TM Lancaster House speech. 'We don't really know what we want, well we do its everything, but even we accept that is unlikely, so instead we are going to threaten to walk away. Like we have for 3 years, without ever doing it. But this time we really, really mean it. Except everyone knows we are not ready. But we are still going to go.'

And it will be breathlessly reported as Johnson sticking it to the EU, finally putting manners on the EU. Remember when TM held that speech on No 10 where she said she had had enough? The night the UK finally turned the tables? What changed? Nothing.

Because despite all the noise, the UK know they cannot go without a deal. Its madness. It won't be the end of the UK but it will create huge problems. A government is meant to make peoples lives better not worse

Bit cynical

Deleted User wrote: »

In what way?

It was no border permanently before and now, subject to a vote among NI Assembly members, the UK can be freed from its obligation. I'm not saying this is a likely outcome but it represents a backing down on the EU/Ireland side.

Bit cynical

Sam Russell wrote: »

Does he mean a transition period extension by another name?

He means WTO terms since WA does not specify the trading relationship.

ancapailldorcha

Bit cynical wrote: »

It was no border permanently before and now, subject to a vote among NI Assembly members, the UK can be freed from its obligation. I'm not saying this is a likely outcome but it represents a backing down on the EU/Ireland side.

It's a far cry from the claim about it being done for the Germans' economic interest though. The frontstop was the EU's preferred option and it also hands autonomy to Northern Ireland so it can decide for itself.

[Deleted User]

Bit cynical wrote: »

It was no border permanently before and now, subject to a vote among NI Assembly members, the UK can be freed from its obligation. I'm not saying this is a likely outcome but it represents a backing down on the EU/Ireland side.

Even if you think it was a back down, it doesn't mean "German economic interests did predominate in the end".

Bit cynical

Leroy42 wrote: »

It just another version of TM Lancaster House speech. 'We don't really know what we want, well we do its everything, but even we accept that is unlikely, so instead we are going to threaten to walk away. Like we have for 3 years, without ever doing it. But this time we really, really mean it. Except everyone knows we are not ready. But we are still going to go.'

And it will be breathlessly reported as Johnson sticking it to the EU, finally putting manners on the EU. Remember when TM held that speech on No 10 where she said she had had enough? The night the UK finally turned the tables? What changed? Nothing.

Because despite all the noise, the UK know they cannot go without a deal. Its madness. It won't be the end of the UK but it will create huge problems. A government is meant to make peoples lives better not worse

I think he's fairly clear what he wants. A Canada style deal.

Is he willing to walk away? We did not find out before because he was not given the chance to walk away due to the parliamentary vote forcing him to ask for an extension, which he made clear he was doing under protest.

I don't think we'll find out this time either because the EU has already said they are willing to do a Canada style deal. Of course the devil is in the details, but it will be some sort of deal along those lines. Good news for Ireland potentially.

But I think it is a mistake to compare the current government with that under TM. Different styles and different parliamentary arithmetic.

Bit cynical

Deleted User wrote: »

Even if you think it was a back down, it doesn't mean "German economic interests did predominate in the end".

However it was Merkel who first went public with the idea after a meeting with Johnson.