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Brexit discussion thread XII (Please read OP before posting)

ancapailldorcha

This is the twelfth incarnation of our Brexit discussion thread.

I appreciate that the end of Brexit is or may be in sight (insofar as one can be certain) but please bear the following in mind before posting:

Insults directed at popular figures are not acceptable in this forum
Please do not post memes, videos or comedy links here
Please do not be uncivil to other posters
Please use the report function to alert the mods when necessary
Discussion of Sinn Féin's longstanding policy of abstention from Westminster is not suitable for this thread. Posts on this subject may be deleted

Previous thread is here:

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058016732

United Ireland thread:

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058014553

Scottish Independence thread:

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058023269

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Christy42

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

So are you saying:

1. The number of anti-Semites in the Labour Party is insignificant?
2. Anti-Semitism is not racist? or
3. The number of Labour Party members voting to remain was insignificant?
4. Or were you just looking facts in their face and denying them?

Oh, here's Oswald Mosley

I do know that Labour were not being counted as remain votes for totalling up who voted for remain/leave in a conversation just before so I am curious why they suddenly count as a remain party now.

Though yeah there are probably some racists who voted remain. Far more seem to have found a home with leave. And far worse than that they are starting to find a voice with the uptick of incidents such as the one detailed by the BBC.

johnnyskeleton

sid waddell wrote: »

As wacky bad takes go, that's way out there.

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Replicability. Scientific hypotheses are tested by replicability. Scientific theories are not validated by successful predictions.

SantaCruz wrote: »

Replicability? I'm not sure you understand what you googled there. Also, I was referring to theories, not hypotheses - if you want to be so pedantic.

Continue googling and you will see there is quite a difference.

Mod note:

Serious and relevant posts only please

Nody

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Ok, I see you admit that there is no reasoning with you but it would also destroy the EU, Ignore WTO rules and possibly involve the EU in major retaliation from other economies.

Exactly who do you think would stand on UKs side and what WTO rules exactly do you think they would break? All EU has to do is say no FTA with the UK we're going WTO terms and zero equivalence (that means most services etc. sold to EU stop being allowed as a reference along with 70% checks on meat etc.) they will tank the UK economy quite easily (50% export market suddenly gone) while taking a small hit at best for EU (8% of total exports etc.). Or do you think the bankers selling bonds etc. will suddenly go, nah, we're going to be patriotic and support the UK here and not want to handle those bonds any more? Because even if you think they are that stupid (which they are not) EU has New York, Singapore etc. who'll actually have better terms to get the job done and they are happy to take up any slack from London at a moments notice (and increased bonus at the end of the year from the new sales).

fly_agaric

deanh wrote: »

I doubt that they would understand the subtleties of Irish elections but the fact is that they would interpret it as Irish voters rejecting the E.U. and endorsing their view. Little Eire knows its place.

Suppose they might (the very few paying regular attention to what goes on here). We all have to take enjoyment where we can find it!

Infini

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Ok, I see you admit that there is no reasoning with you but it would also destroy the EU, Ignore WTO rules and possibly involve the EU in major retaliation from other economies.

Honestly I don't even know what to make of this exactly do you even have a point exactly or is this just another case of impotent rage because what I say is actually hitting the mark and is something that could actually come to pass due to English ignorance and stupidity?

English Right wingers have been making threats to damage the EU for not getting their own way since all this began, the fact is they want everything their way for the benefit of a minority all the while deluding and driving nationalistic drivel to blame everyone else and distract from their own incompetence.

Personally I'm just fed up with the whole sad fiasco it's sad that they left because vested interest's first lied and cheated their way to victory then jacked the whole thing so they can make a killing lining their own pockets at the expense of the public but when they go around threatening other countries when they don't get their own way and are willing to cause as much damage to others including our island with their toxic spiteful carry on simply because they cannot accept the world does not revolve around them then and they cant get their own way, I honestly feel they deserve a hard dose of reality and consequences for acting this way the EU side's looked to have the patience of a bleeding saint for having to deal with their BS for so long now.

AS for the whole WTO they're effectively broken right now in no small part thanks to the US so personally they have no legs to stand on if they basically void everything all at once either through pissing off everyone enough or just being plain stupid and refusing to be realistic, as for other countries the EU is unlikely to break up if anything this whole laughable fiasco has had the opposite effect of enhancing solidarity against a government of idiots and chancers not to mention other countries no less the US will be all lining up to pick the leftovers of the UK carcass clean because the EU was build to protect against that as in solidarity in numbers.

Personally I'm just waiting for the day when this whole house of cards comes crashing down and the likes of Boris, Farage and the conservatives finally get their well overdue comeuppance for their arrogant and stupid behaviour and honestly all I'm wondering is how much damage is it going to take before people over there wake up to the firesale of their country by these fools and are willing to stand up to these braindead right wing idiots drunk on their brexit binging delusions that will never come.

Strazdas

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

That is such a stupid and unthinking quote. The only political party in the UK to be investigated by the Equality and Human Rights Commission for racism is the Labour Party. The majority of Labour Party members voted to Remain, therefore it seems likely that at least as many racists voted to Remain as to Leave.

And the British Fascists campaigned to join the European Community.

You think Engish racists and bigots would be pro-EU and against the UK leaving? That one seems hard to believe (witness the numerous personalised attacks on Merkel, Macron, Varadkar and Tusk on Twitter.....Merkel is hated for apparently being over fond of Muslim people).

murphaph

deanh wrote: »

I doubt that they would understand the subtleties of Irish elections but the fact is that they would interpret it as Irish voters rejecting the E.U. and endorsing their view. Little Eire knows its place.

I have song lyrics in my head now...
"You're so vain, you prob'ly think this election is about you".

fash

roots2branches wrote: »

I really think it depends on the media. For example, the BBC revelling in anything anti brexit, as does the Guardian and indeed just about all of the Irish media.
They just don't get it.
I look at all my friends in the UK who voted for brexit and they are all decent, good, hard working people who'd never hurt a fly. That's the reality as I see it.
Of course you'll always get a tiny minority but looking at my facebook feed, it's those on the left, and I speak as someone who has a balance of friends left and right, but my friends on the left, the pro remainers who are the most bigoted, hate filled and unpatriotic of them all. That's my observation.
The UK had a vote and one side won. At the end of the day democracy only works with the losers consent.

And losers can only consent when the winners campaign fairly and act with due deference to the views of said losers. Otherwise there is nothing for the losers to reasonably consent to.

moon2

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Ok, I see you admit that there is no reasoning with you but it would also destroy the EU, Ignore WTO rules and possibly involve the EU in major retaliation from other economies.

It's much easier than the OP laid out. The EU could deliver on the OPs wishes by simply agreeing to what Boris laid out. No deal.

If he wants zero alignment and all the benefits the most likely outcome is this, so if he's actually telling the truth (ROFL) then the negotiations will come to a quick and successful close and the UK will leave on WTO terms, presumably with some additional small agreements on airline travel and other percieved necessities.

black forest

Quite interesting that Raab is still pedalling this old thing about no borders. But what can someone expect from a then Brexit negotiator who could not be bothered to read a simple 11 page document.

https://twitter.com/davidheniguk/status/1223902552258904064?s=21

For better reading the Threadreaderapp.

Funny that his boss signed the WAB and it’s political declaration just a few days ago. There both could find definitions for a level playing field and what alignment means. Nobody on the EU side is moving any goal posts. In fact nobody could have been more clear than the EU about possible consequences.

That there will be checks between NI and the UK if it comes to goods was obvious from the beginning. If the last statement from No 10 is to be believed they like to get another quite high border in the Channel as well.

Tomorrow will be a very interesting day when Johnson is publishing his statement and Barnier is given his mandate for the negotiations.

briany

fash wrote: »

And losers can only consent when the winners campaign fairly and act with due deference to the views of said losers. Otherwise there is nothing for the losers to reasonably consent to.

This consent idea as portrayed by Brexiteers is a myth, anyway. When does it happen in politics?

What should happen in politics is that the losing side acknowledges a vote happened and they lost fair and square. I don't see anything in the rule book where the losers must also concede all say and accept their viewpoints as null and void. Nor do I see anything about holding the ensuing process(es) to account and advocating for a sensible compromise.

When a referendum is won by a 2/3rds majority, it's easy enough to say the losers are OK with the result. There aren't enough of them about to apply critical pressure, but if you think the people who, for example, lost the abortion referendum are behind the country's new direction, you are mistaken.

sondagefaux

Brexit in three headlines.

2018:

Norton Motorcycles boss Stuart Garner on Brexit - “UK better prepared than media has us believe”

"We’ll thrive outside the EU. There may be short-term speed bumps but we will come out of it stronger"
SHARE
BY IAN STRACHAN
05:00, 4 SEP 2018UPDATED10:25, 3 SEP 2018

https://www.leicestermercury.co.uk/news/business/norton-motorcycles-boss-stuart-garner-1963413.amp

2019:

Norton motorbike boss: Brexit has kicked us up the backside
Sky News is spending two weeks in the city of Derby to try to understand what Brexit might mean for its residents.

By Adam Parsons, Europe correspondent @adamparsons
Tuesday 12 March 2019 11:59, UK

https://news.sky.com/story/amp/norton-motorbike-boss-brexit-has-kicked-us-up-the-backside-11662637

2020:

Norton Motorcycles goes into administration
29 January 2020

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51303905

An Ciarraioch

And the first fisheries war has already erupted on Guernsey:

https://www.euronews.com/2020/02/01/french-officials-condemn-guernsey-fishing-ban-triggered-by-brexit

Igotadose

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

And the first fisheries war has already erupted on Guernsey:

https://www.euronews.com/2020/02/01/french-officials-condemn-guernsey-fishing-ban-triggered-by-brexit

Après moi, le déluge? Something as complicated as Brexit will have decades of these kind of events and issues to sort out. The law of unintended consequences will reign.

First Up

moon2 wrote:

If he wants zero alignment and all the benefits the most likely outcome is this, so if he's actually telling the truth (ROFL) then the negotiations will come to a quick and successful close and the UK will leave on WTO terms, presumably with some additional small agreements on airline travel and other percieved necessities.

But remember, WTO terms do not circumvent the need to comply with technical requirements. If goods don't meet EU standards, they don't get in.

Import tariffs is the easy bit. Its the "non tariff barriers" that will bite.

Professor Moriarty

black forest wrote: »

Quite interesting that Raab is still pedalling this old thing about no borders. But what can someone expect from a then Brexit negotiator who could not be bothered to read a simple 11 page document.

https://twitter.com/davidheniguk/status/1223902552258904064?s=21

For better reading the Threadreaderapp.

Funny that his boss signed the WAB and it’s political declaration just a few days ago. There both could find definitions for a level playing field and what alignment means. Nobody on the EU side is moving any goal posts. In fact nobody could have been more clear than the EU about possible consequences.

That there will be checks between NI and the UK if it comes to goods was obvious from the beginning. If the last statement from No 10 is to be believed they like to get another quite high border in the Channel as well.

Tomorrow will be a very interesting day when Johnson is publishing his statement and Barnier is given his mandate for the negotiations.

Actually, Barnier will set out his draft negotiating mandate tomorrow but this won't be formally adopted and ratified by the EU until the end of February.

Professor Moriarty

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

And the first fisheries war has already erupted on Guernsey:

https://www.euronews.com/2020/02/01/french-officials-condemn-guernsey-fishing-ban-triggered-by-brexit

A perfect foil for stoking English nationalism.

gooch2k9

sondagefaux wrote: »

Brexit in three headlines.

2018:

https://www.leicestermercury.co.uk/news/business/norton-motorcycles-boss-stuart-garner-1963413.amp

2019:

https://news.sky.com/story/amp/norton-motorbike-boss-brexit-has-kicked-us-up-the-backside-11662637

2020:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51303905

Norton was being poorly managed anyway. Brexit or no they wouldn't have lasted.

A Dub in Glasgo

gooch2k9 wrote: »

Norton was being poorly managed anyway. Brexit or no they wouldn't have lasted.

Maybe so but Garner is the typical spiv. A Brexiteer refusing to pay the tax owed

SantaCruz

gooch2k9 wrote: »

Norton was being poorly managed anyway. Brexit or no they wouldn't have lasted.

You're most probably right, but it's the hubris that's the point, I think.

moon2

First Up wrote: »

But remember, WTO terms do not circumvent the need to comply with technical requirements. If goods don't meet EU standards, they don't get in.

Import tariffs is the easy bit. Its the "non tariff barriers" that will bite.

Oh absolutely. The idea of "no ruletaking no alignment" falls apart when you look at any form of trade. The trading partners always have to align.

What this realistically means today is that Boris is still creating headlines purely for internal consumption.

gooch2k9

SantaCruz wrote: »

You're most probably right, but it's the hubris that's the point, I think.

You're right. I had offered that opinion based on their sporting involvement and treatment of their riders. Reading about the people losing out on pensions is sickening.

BarryD2

I think we are going to get rightly squeezed over the coming months. Actually if FG do lose power, it could be a blessing in disguise for them, as there's a very real possibility of a poisoned chalice being handed to whoever takes over.

When push comes to shove, I fully expect the economic interests of France, Germany and Italy to be on a higher pedestal that our requirements. And there's no way to escape that reality. They've done their bit for us in the withdrawal agreement but now the real game starts.

ancapailldorcha

They couldn't wait a single day.

https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1223727509851836418

I'm genuinely curious where the limits of the shtick of blaming the EU for everything are. The UK has left so if there's one positive to be seen from this, it'll be seeing this narrative collapse.

SantaCruz

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

The UK has left so if there's one positive to be seen from this, it'll be seeing this narrative collapse.

Have you seen any reason to believe that the UK press can't convince the public that up is down?

ancapailldorcha

SantaCruz wrote: »

Have you seen any reason to believe that the UK press can't convince the public that up is down?

People seem to be thoroughly fatigued by Brexit hence the appeal of the mantra employed by Johnson. They're fed up of all of it. Of course, we've just started the process but if we start seeing anything like widespread job losses or increased deprivation then reality will render the whining of the red tops worthless.

Just my own opinion. Big cheques have been written and it's nearly time to cash them.

Thargor

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

They couldn't wait a single day.

https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1223727509851836418

I'm genuinely curious where the limits of the shtick of blaming the EU for everything are. The UK has left so if there's one positive to be seen from this, it'll be seeing this narrative collapse.

I post on a good few forums, most of them British, Reddit/Cycling/Games mostly but any of the Brexit threads on those British forums are all asking WTF that headline even means, but I suppose those places wouldn't be the Telegraphs target audience.

Leroy42

gooch2k9 wrote: »

Norton was being poorly managed anyway. Brexit or no they wouldn't have lasted.

That didn't seem to be the case when tory MP's visited them to hand out government grants ans proclaim that Norton was the type of innovative business to lead Britain in a post Brexit world.

And wasn't it these very companies that were being held back by the EU, such that getting out would open up the world to Britain?

And whilst I completely agree that Brexit cannot be anymore that a factor in this, if companies such as them cannot see the advantage soon to come from Brexit it highlights the issue that Brexit appears to have little actual advantage.

gooch2k9

Leroy42 wrote: »

That didn't seem to be the case when tory MP's visited them to hand out government grants ans proclaim that Norton was the type of innovative business to lead Britain in a post Brexit world.

And wasn't it these very companies that were being held back by the EU, such that getting out would open up the world to Britain?

And whilst I completely agree that Brexit cannot be anymore that a factor in this, if companies such as them cannot see the advantage soon to come from Brexit it highlights the issue that Brexit appears to have little actual advantage.

Norton is a good old British brand, Tory MPs supporting them doesn't surprise me in the slightest as majority of Brexit supporters would love to see iconic brands of old resurgent. Any day now The Telegraph will announce British Leyland is back!

There's no benefit whatsoever for automotive companies from Brexit though. I'm in the industry myself and we have seen work gradually reducing over the last year or two.

Leroy42

gooch2k9 wrote: »

Norton is a good old British brand, Tory MPs supporting them doesn't surprise me in the slightest as majority of Brexit supporters would love to see iconic brands of old resurgent. Any day now The Telegraph will announce British Leyland is back!

There's no benefit whatsoever for automotive companies from Brexit though. I'm in the industry myself and we have seen work gradually reducing over the last year or two.

That is being a tad disingenuous though. Companies like Norton were touted as the very ones to benefit from Brexit, free from the protectionist EU and one of the type of products that would be wanted all around the world.

The fact that it was never true is not the point. It was, along with many others, as a reason why the UK didn't need the EU.