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GE 2020 Cork North Central. See Mod Note in Post 1

robinbird

Looks like the last seat could be interesting. Opinions?
FF will run two. Guaranteed one seat with a good possibility of two.
Padraig O' Sullivan and either Tony Fitz or Ken O'Flynn.
One seat for FG. Colm Burke on the ticket. They could jeopardize that by running second candidate though.
One seat for SF. They may run two. O'Brien and Gould. If they do Gould could unseat O'Brien.
Labour have strong candidate in Maher. He has a shot at last seat.
Greens have a shot at last seat.
Mick Barry could be in trouble but he has a personal vote so in with a chance of retaining his seat.
So FF 1, FG 1, SG 1
Last seat between FF, Lab, Sinn Fein, Greens and Solidarity.

MOD NOTE:
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dulpit

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

Ivan Yeats going with 2 FF, 1 SF, 1 SOL.

More or less called Colm Burke a serial loser and thinks he'll miss out once again.

I just listened to that today (https://www.newstalk.com/podcasts/calling-it/cork-north-central) and Yates was very strong on Colm Burke. He said he was his director of elections in 1994 by-election, it was a very well resourced campaign and he didn't do well (came 3rd with 16%, Democratic Left and Fianna Fáil both got 25%+). From the sounds of it, and coupled with other predictions for other constituencies, Yates is predicting a big collapse for Fine Gael, and if they start to lose seats, this will be one of them...

Can't say I disagree strongly with him either. It'd be a surprise, but not a shock, if he loses out.

Cork Trucker

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Jesus he'll be luck to get a third of that total before the election this day week. Also, Mick barry may not the only PBP/ SOL who goes out with the tide so to speak.

There’s one guy alone who has donated €240 of the total so far, just shy of half what he has garnered to date. I met him in the city centre once during a protest, all wind that guy!

Brussels Sprout

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Jesus he'll be luck to get a third of that total before the election this day week. Also, Mick barry may not the only PBP/ SOL who goes out with the tide so to speak.

I reckon the only 1 of them to definitely get back in will be Richard Boyd Barrett. The other 5 are all in massive battles.

Itssoeasy

Just seen a new poster around where I live after going for a walk and it's a mick Barry one that says "cork north central, last two seats... FF/FG vs Mick Barry"

robinbird

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Just seen a new poster around where I live after going for a walk and it's a mick Barry one that says "cork north central, last two seats... FF/FG vs Mick Barry"

He might have a point. With FG plummeting in the polls Liam Burke may no longer be safe. So last two seats could be between Burke, Tony Fitz and Barry.
Of course possible Maher and O'Fynn might also be in the mix. Greens probably not. Sinn Fein may have made a massive tactical blunder by not running two.
Could be a long interesting count.

Cork Trucker

SF ran both O'Brien & Gould in GE16 after their LE14 success and they didn't pull it off, but it wasn't a million miles away either. On this occasion they've come off the back of a poor LE19 and never in a million years would have expected this bounce 8 months later hence just Gould running who looks nearly certain to be elected following his BE19 performance. Colm Burke isn't voter friendly as has been proven by his failure to date to be elected as a TD since his first attempt in 1982, then he gace up his council seat to take over from Coveney as an MEP and again couldn't hold that seat either, he's merely in the seanad as the ordinary joe doesn't elect them. The Dara Murphy controversy is coming up on the door steps he has conceded.

I see the following being elected:

Gould
O'Sullivan
Fitzgerald

One of Barry/Maher/O'Flynn.

While Moran succeeded in the Cork City North East Ward there are many parts of the North Central Ward who do not like the Greens or their values.

Italix

I had a leaflet from Timothy Joseph (TJ) Hogan waiting when I got home today, some very bad grammar mistakes, I hope he didn't write it himself.

Cork Trucker

Italix wrote: »

I had a leaflet from Timothy Joseph (TJ) Hogan waiting when I got home today, some very bad grammar mistakes, I hope he didn't write it himself.

Is that the traveller guy who was on RTE last week?

Italix

Cork Trucker wrote: »

Is that the traveller guy who was on RTE last week?

It is.

Cork Trucker

Italix wrote: »

It is.

What are the odds on him?

Brussels Sprout

Cork Trucker wrote: »

Colm Burke isn't voter friendly as has been proven by his failure to date to be elected as a TD since his first attempt in 1982, then he gace up his council seat to take over from Coveney as an MEP and again couldn't hold that seat either, he's merely in the seanad as the ordinary joe doesn't elect them. The Dara Murphy controversy is coming up on the door steps he has conceded.

If Burke doesn't get elected then he'll be the Ivana Bacik of FG

Cork Trucker

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

If Burke doesn't get elected then he'll be the Ivana Bacik of FG

He’s that as it is. It’ll take luck and transfers to get him in

Italix

I never thought I'd say this but I think I'm going to vote SF.
If the polls are to be believed and they could have a majority perhaps a few years of change might be worth a shot.
Not so long ago I would have packed up and buggered off if they were in power.

Cork Trucker

Italix wrote: »

I never thought I'd say this but I think I'm going to vote SF.
If the polls are to be believed and they could have a majority perhaps a few years of change might be worth a shot.
Not so long ago I would have packed up and buggered off if they were in power.

They won’t get a majority as they only have 42 candidates, maybe more depending on the Tipperary candidates who are put forward. They will either be a coalition partner or opposition leaders

thequarefellow

Cork Trucker wrote: »

They won’t get a majority as they only have 42 candidates, maybe more depending on the Tipperary candidates who are put forward. They will either be a coalition partner or opposition leaders

I think most people, including myself, are voting Sinn Fein as a protest. If they had a realistic chance of forming a government I'd say many would think twice about voting for them. I think FG need a wake up call. I hope never to see FF in power again.

Cork Trucker

thequarefellow wrote: »

I think most people, including myself, are voting Sinn Fein as a protest. If they had a realistic chance of forming a government I'd say many would think twice about voting for them. I think FG need a wake up call. I hope never to see FF in power again.

It's probably a protest vote by many, if there was a realistic chance you'd still be surprised, all FF/FG are doing is sniping at SF because both leaders know they are in trouble, those who do vote for FF/FG are possibly voting for the candidate over the party. If SF get all candidates elected i will watch government talks with interest, i can see Varadkar backing Martin "as a last resort" as he said himself last night. FF don't deserve to ever be in power again, if they get in expect another recession within a decade or less.

dulpit

Sinn Féin must be kicking themselves they didn't run 2 candidates this time out. Last time they had both Jonathan O'Brien and Thomas Gould, and you would imagine if that was the ticket this time they'd be pushing for 2. O'Brien leaving the stage so close to election probably ruined that chance though with a replacement.

Cork Trucker

dulpit wrote: »

Sinn Féin must be kicking themselves they didn't run 2 candidates this time out. Last time they had both Jonathan O'Brien and Thomas Gould, and you would imagine if that was the ticket this time they'd be pushing for 2. O'Brien leaving the stage so close to election probably ruined that chance though with a replacement.

In one way i agree, but if they faulter in the run up to polling day there's still room for Gould, if they ran two it could have split the vote and left them out in the cold.

rob316

dulpit wrote: »

Sinn Féin must be kicking themselves they didn't run 2 candidates this time out. Last time they had both Jonathan O'Brien and Thomas Gould, and you would imagine if that was the ticket this time they'd be pushing for 2. O'Brien leaving the stage so close to election probably ruined that chance though with a replacement.

CNC is abysmal, Tommy Gould as a TD? Jesus christ

Cork Trucker

rob316 wrote: »

CNC is abysmal, Tommy Gould as a TD? Jesus christ

Third time lucky! He’s in even before the votes are cast!

Gamb!t

Cork Trucker wrote: »

Third time lucky! He’s in even before the votes are cast!

He wont be getting many votes from Ballyvolane.

FMG

Gamb!t wrote: »

He wont be getting many votes from Ballyvolane.

Talking to a fella today , he said TG had done great work for Delanys. I can't elaborate as the conversation moved on from there.

Cork Trucker

Gamb!t wrote: »

He wont be getting many votes from Ballyvolane.

He's public enemy number 1 in the Glen Rovers Hurling Club, Tony Fitz on the other hand........................

Cork Trucker

FMG wrote: »

Talking to a fella today , he said TG had done great work for Delanys. I can't elaborate as the conversation moved on from there.

Gould is with St Vincent's, would he be deemed a traitor by doing work for Delaneys?

FMG

Cork Trucker wrote: »

Gould is with St Vincent's, would he be deemed a traitor by doing work for Delaneys?

He is, but maybe he's doing a foxer.

dulpit

I reckon it'll be Gould, O'Sullivan, Fitzgerald and Barry as elected TDs, not sure on order. I'm hoping this won't be result, but that's my guess. What say others?

Cork Trucker

Anyone voted yet?

Cork Trucker

dulpit wrote: »

I reckon it'll be Gould, O'Sullivan, Fitzgerald and Barry as elected TDs, not sure on order. I'm hoping this won't be result, but that's my guess. What say others?

If Burke doesn't get elected this time around i suspect it's the end of the road for his chances of being a TD, he first contested a Dail election in 1982 i think

leahyl

Cork Trucker wrote: »

Anyone voted yet?

Just back - really busy at the polling station, busiest I’ve ever seen it for any election, not sure if that’s to do with it being a Saturday or what

dulpit

Voted around noon. 20% at that stage, they said thats very busy for them.

Anyone heard the cars driving around for Mick Barry or Thomas Gould with tannoys on roof blasting out election slogans? Very old school...