FrancieBrady wrote: » I think Labour and the Greens would have to hold their noses too hard to do that. If it went pearshaped, 2 questions 1. Who would benefit next time out. 2. What would happen the gains Labour and the Greens have made back? Not without some pain. Also, people are not stupid, if they give SF such a strong mandate as the polls are indicating and they are locked out of government out of spite and old animosity, do you think their vote will increase or decrease next time out, when they run candidates all over the country?
SafeSurfer wrote: » There are two flaws in your analysis. The first is that both Labour and the Greens have expressed their willingness to enter coalition.
The second is that SF are not being locked out of government out of spite and old animosity. The main parties are not willing to coalesce with them because their policies are completely non compatible, their leadership organization structure is questionable and any party that entered coalition with them would face a grassroots revolt, such is the level of their toxicity.
SafeSurfer wrote: » There are two flaws in your analysis. The first is that both Labour and the Greens have expressed their willingness to enter coalition. The second is that SF are not being locked out of government out of spite and old animosity. The main parties are not willing to coalesce with them because their policies are completely non compatible, their leadership organization structure is questionable and any party that entered coalition with them would face a grassroots revolt, such is the level of their toxicity.
FrancieBrady wrote: » That is just a pre-election position. There will be considerations to be made depending on their final vote. My point is, if they jump into a coalition just to get the comfy seats again then that 'consideration' will be seen and punished. If SF take the lead or draw level in the polls, all that goes out the window as a position. Certainly in FF. I am far from convinced that there will not be a revolt within FF. You could see it emerge this week even if it looks like SF are going to eclipse FG.
SafeSurfer wrote: » One online poll showing SF at 21% and some if their supporters are losing the run of themselves. A proper Millward Brown poll before the 2016 election had them on 21% and they ended up getting 13.8%. I wouldn’t be doing a Neil Kinnock on it and telling your candidates to go home to your constituencies and prepare for government. Don’t put the socialist champagne on ice just yet.
Fann Linn wrote: » And MM might have to do an Arlene Foster and talk with SF.
FrancieBrady wrote: » We are discussing polls SS. Always to be taken with caution. Are you not the guy/gal being dogmatic here about what might happen?
SafeSurfer wrote: It’s not me who is being dogmatic. It’s the leaders of the two main parties. That SF supporters think they don’t really mean it is delusional.
SafeSurfer wrote: » It’s not me who is being dogmatic. It’s the leaders of the two main parties.
SafeSurfer wrote: » Sinn Fein will not have a majority government within a decade. More delusion.
SafeSurfer wrote: » Alternatively FF and gene pool FF independents could reach 60 seats. Meaning potential government formation with FF/Green/Labour/Independent coalition One thing is for certain. Anyone who thinks Sinn Fein are going to be in the next government are deluded.
McMurphy wrote: » I have to admit to getting a good belly laugh at this reworking of FGs anti SF tweet.https://twitter.com/glennthefitz/status/1223527812260356096?s=19
JohnnyFlash wrote: » Why are people who either support SF or desperately want some sort of change so hesitant to say whether they would like to see them in Government?
FrancieBrady wrote: » ? I am voting for them this time because I think the are ready to be in coalition.
rdwight wrote: » If Eoin O'Broin was running in my constituency I would give him some innocuous preference (I'm partial to poshboys). Same would have been true of Jonathan O'Brien (Ok, I'm also partial to a bit of rough) The rest are poor. McDonald has been very poor for the last two years and very lucky for the last two months. Abstaining from responsiblity in NI for three years was a disgrace. Having let public services stagnate for three years SF got so desperate to get back to Stormont before the Free State elections that they capitulated to the DUP, especially on the Irish language. Pearse Doherty was much over praised for asking some disingenuous questions of inept insurance industry bureaucrats. If the insurance industry had, for instance, reported the Maria Bailey case to the guards as possible fraud they would have got laughed out it. Even claims reported in the media that are thrown out of court as fraudulent are never pursued by guards.
JohnnyFlash wrote: » I know you aren’t a SF supporter, Francie, but who would be your preference to go into coalition with? FF or FG?
FrancieBrady wrote: » Sounds like dogma to me below.
rdwight wrote: » My main problem with SF is that the drive for a United Ireland trumps everything. Over the last hundred years it has trumped any moral qualms about murder and terrorism, about attacks on the democratic institutions in the Irish Republic, about collaboration with Nazis and the likes of Ghaddafi and Whitey Bulger. It has driven the cynicism behind u-turns on the bank bailout and water charges, being possibly the only socialists in the world against propery taxes, lies about only taking the Average Industrial Wage. It has also driven the hypocrisy of saying one thing in opposition in the Republic and doing otherwise in the north as regards eg corporation and property taxes, water charges and nurses pay. There are lots of problems with the Greens but given the option between a SF party for whom a United Ireland (which demographics was always going to, and still will, deliver anyway) trumps all and a Green Party for whom the safety of our children and grandchildren is priority, I'll choose the latter
FrancieBrady wrote: » They are down to a putative 42% of the vote share. Everything they try on this gets thrown back in their faces...I wonder when the penny will drop with the party faithful's. My money is on the signs of a revolt in the FF ranks this week if this polling is borne out.
SafeSurfer wrote: » If you want to put your mouth where you say your money is how about if FF ranks revolt this weekend I give €10 to a homeless charity and post the receipt here and if they don’t you give a €10 donation and do the same. It would be a ballsy move to bet on a party looking at gaining seats and becoming the majority government party revolting in the week before the election. Of course we would have to agree on a definition of “ranks” and “revolt”.
FrancieBrady wrote: » I will pass on that. I donate per bank debit to homeless charities already. I don't need to virtue signal about it over something like this. When I say revolt, I mean people being vocal about it. Because I am sure that any serious journalist will now start asking the question or certainly should be. Edit: all of that is predicated on FF not surging ahead in the coming polls.
