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Brexit discussion thread XII (Please read OP before posting)

ancapailldorcha

This is the twelfth incarnation of our Brexit discussion thread.

I appreciate that the end of Brexit is or may be in sight (insofar as one can be certain) but please bear the following in mind before posting:

Insults directed at popular figures are not acceptable in this forum
Please do not post memes, videos or comedy links here
Please do not be uncivil to other posters
Please use the report function to alert the mods when necessary
Discussion of Sinn Féin's longstanding policy of abstention from Westminster is not suitable for this thread. Posts on this subject may be deleted

Previous thread is here:

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058016732

United Ireland thread:

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058014553

Scottish Independence thread:

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058023269

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embraer170

A bit of Gov.uk advice for Brits travelling to Europe from 01/01/2021:
https://www.gov.uk/visit-europe-1-january-2021

Mobile roaming: free roaming may end
From 1 January 2021, the guarantee of free mobile phone roaming throughout the EU, Iceland, Liechtenstein and Norway will end.

Healthcare: check you’re covered
You should always get appropriate travel insurance with healthcare cover before you go abroad.

From 1 January 2021 your European Health Insurance Card (EHIC) card might not be valid.

It’s particularly important you get travel insurance with the right cover if you have a pre-existing medical condition. This is because the EHIC scheme covers pre-existing conditions, while many travel insurance policies do not.

Driving: you may need extra documents

Pet travel: allow at least 4 months to arrange
From 1 January 2021 you will not be able to use the existing pet passport scheme. Instead you’ll need to follow a different process, which takes 4 months.

And that's for tourist travel. The pages for business travel could make you head spin.

Strazdas

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

How long before the Republic applies to become a member of the UK again? The answers are probably very similar.

But the UK probably won't even exist. We could well see Scotland and NI in the EU in future, but the English rump state outside of it.

MrMusician18

Gintonious wrote: »

https://twitter.com/BillyKelleherEU/status/1222637266528620549

This is confusing to me. Tony Connelly has been nothing short of amazing during all of this charade, yet this MEP takes aim at RTE's coverage (most of which has been by Tony himself).

What planet is he on?

I think Kelleher is referring to the day to day matters of the European Parliament rather than the Brexit special coverage (which to be fair has been very good - but that's largely due to Irish officials feeding them the line)

How often does EP appear in Irish news? Hardly at all. They have one special programme during the graveyard shift iirc

Peregrinus

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

How long before the Republic applies to become a member of the UK again? The answers are probably very similar.

Well, the questions are not very similar. The Republic has never, ever applied to become a member of the UK; it's how trajectory has been consistently in the opposite direction. When it was a member of the UK, the economic consequences for it were dire, so it has no reason to remember the experience fondly. But the UK has applied for EU membership, what, three times already? And while it was a member the economic consequences were highly beneficial. So it's applying for a fourth time at some point is not so wildly unlikely a conjecture as the notion that the Republic would apply to join the UK.

BonnieSituation

Bit cynical wrote: »

Legally you don't need a passport (or passport card) to travel to the UK though airlines may insist upon it. Airlines are free to ask for whatever means of identification they wish. I would expect the passport card will still be acceptable as it is not about entry to the UK but about identifying yourself to the airline.

I know that. Thanks for repeating what I said though.

Also, the scenario that I'm theoretically playing out is not necessarily Ireland to UK but say France to UK? Get the conundrum?

It's more to do with the interpretation of an individual airline of what constitutes "valid identification".

Peregrinus

BonnieSituation wrote: »

I know that. Thanks for repeating what I said though.

Also, the scenario that I'm theoretically playing out is not necessarily Ireland to UK but say France to UK? Get the conundrum?

It's more to do with the interpretation of an individual airline of what constitutes "valid identification".

In the France-UK scenario, it's not primarily up to the airline.

The UK, SFAIK, intends to grant visa-free entry to EU citizens, but presumably they will need to demonstrate that they are EU citizens in order to avail of this. Whether they will need to produce a full passport for this, or whether the UK will accept EU-issued passport cards, is a matter for the UK. If they have made a decision about this, I haven't heard about it.

BonnieSituation

Peregrinus wrote: »

In the France-UK scenario, it's not primarily up to the airline.

The UK, SFAIK, intends to grant visa-free entry to EU citizens, but presumably they will need to demonstrate that they are EU citizens in order to avail of this. Whether they will need to produce a full passport for this, or whether the UK will accept EU-issued passport cards, is a matter for the UK. If they have made a decision about this, I haven't heard about it.

Exactly. So yet another scenario that the UK haven't thought about.

God bless them.

Peregrinus

No, they may well have thought about it. I just haven't heard about it but, then, the world is full of things I haven't heard about.

fash

theballz wrote: »

They won’t reapply ever.

I agree with this: I don't think it will ever happen. You need to have around 65-70% sustained for a long time before it would happen. I expect that the UK will break up and Scotland and NI end up in the EU with England/Wales in some sort of EEA/Switzerland arrangement at some stage.

fash

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

How long before the Republic applies to become a member of the UK again? The answers are probably very similar.

Any day now - according to the Brexiters.

BonnieSituation

Peregrinus wrote: »

No, they may well have thought about it. I just haven't heard about it but, then, the world is full of things I haven't heard about.

Be realistic mon Ami

fash

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Why won't they force them? The EU can use its existing competences or develop new ones to prevent countries making decisions for themselves. The EU also decides the content of legislation brought forward to the Parliament and if all else fails there can be new amendment Treaties (or Agreements as they are sometimes called).

Harmonisation of tax legislation? Why not?

It is for this reason I advocate that we force the UK to become an outdoor prison for illegal migrants: outside the EU, the EU has all of this power over the UK and more - it can use its existing competences- or develop new ones. The UK can become the EU's Papua New Guinea. Why not?

Infini

Strazdas wrote: »

But the UK probably won't even exist. We could well see Scotland and NI in the EU in future, but the English rump state outside of it.

Scotland will be gone from the UK along with NI being reunified with usand back inside the EU by the end of the decade while England rots as a failed state being a likely scenario until they undertske serious reforms of their political structures. This will become their lost decade thanks to their cancerous stupidity.

First Up

ThePanjandrum wrote:

Why won't they force them?

Because "they" are us.

The EU is a union of sovereign nations. Write that down and look at it every few minutes until it sinks in.

You will understand everything a lot better when you understand that.

Enzokk

Seems like Johnson will confirm that there will not be rule taking from the EU in a speech he is going to make,

https://twitter.com/DmitryOpines/status/1222789563493617665?s=20

This would be alignment, and it would contradict Javid who said they would be closely aligned. I guess they could still be closely aligned, by 'making' their own standards that coincidentally is the same as the EU standards, but these were enacted by a UK parliament and not imposed by the EU. It would take some explaining why they had to wait for the EU yo set the standards before they decided on their own and the same level, but when you have a majority does it matter and will the people care?

I fear though if this is the plan the people who they have been whipping up in a frenzy to accept economical harm will not be happy when this is explained to them. I think they have opened Pandora's box already and it will not be easy to convince the people to accept EU rules in any way, even if they are enacted in Westminster instead Brussels. The likes of Farage will still be able to make money from opposing the government if they become too aligned with the EU and there will always be MP's like John Redwood who has always been against the EU and will not be happy to have this happen.

Sam Russell

What is happening about Gibraltar? I thought the transition did not apply to them?

Sam Russell

RTE reporting that a leaked memo from Chancellor of the Exchequer, Javid, instructing ministers to prepare to cut their budgets by 5%. Is this the Brexit dividend?

Zubeneschamali

Enzokk wrote: »

I guess they could still be closely aligned, by 'making' their own standards that coincidentally is the same as the EU standards, but these were enacted by a UK parliament and not imposed by the EU.

That will have zero benefits and all the costs of divergence, completely idiotic.

So that is probably the plan.

RobMc59

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

The UK Fisheries Bill has been published - foreign boats could still fish UK waters if they are able to obtain a licence:

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/sustainable-fisheries-enshrined-in-law-as-uk-leaves-the-eu

It looks like the UK intend to use this access as a bargaining tool long term .

Call me Al

RobMc59 wrote: »

It looks like the UK intend to use this access as a bargaining tool long term .

Of course they will.
Everything they perceive as an asset, will have to be used as leverage going forward into FTA negotiations.
So much for British fishermen getting their exclusion zone back.

MrMusician18

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Infini wrote: »

Scotland will be gone from the UK along with NI being reunified with usand back inside the EU by the end of the decade while England rots as a failed state being a likely scenario until they undertske serious reforms of their political structures. This will become their lost decade thanks to their cancerous stupidity.

This kind of hyperbole doesn't help. The UK might break up because of the pressures from Brexit, but even going alone England will not become a failed state.

It may become poorer, more isolated and less relevant on the world stage but it will still be very wealthy country. A failed state is one that doesnt have an effective government - that's hardly likely in the next 5 years at least. That's before we get to the break down in general law and order associated with failed states

RobMc59

Call me Al wrote: »

Of course they will.
Everything they perceive as an asset, will have to be used as leverage going forward into FTA negotiations.
So much for British fishermen getting their exclusion zone back.

According to this article in the times,the UK appears determined to retain control-I hope it doesn't result in any incidents-negotiation is much better than gunboat diplomacy as was proven in Dundalk bay when warships were used to arrest two small NI fishing boats.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tensions-with-france-come-to-surface-as-britain-musters-fleet-to-repel-foreign-trawlers-0znvhqq3z

Nody

The UK government has posted some helpful tips for people wanting to travel in 2021; all benefits of course:

You should always get appropriate travel insurance with healthcare cover before you go abroad.

From 1 January 2021 your European Health Insurance Card (EHIC) card might not be valid.

Brexit dividend to the insurance industry.

You’ll need an international driving permit (IDP) to drive in some countries. Check if you need an IDP.

If you’re taking your own vehicle, you’ll also need:

a ‘green card’ - allow 1 month to get this from your vehicle insurance company
a GB sticker

Oh expect this to be a hoot and failure for many to comply to lovely Sun news articles about how French police are unfairly targeting British drivers etc. when they come over without it and of course the airport rental stories will be massive ("oh poor us elderly with grandpa were not allowed to pick up the car we rented").

Your consumer rights will not change from 1 January 2021. This means that if your travel is cancelled or delayed you may be able to claim a refund or compensation. Check your booking’s terms and conditions to find out more.

Because who needed those pesky rules about compensation from airlines anyway; pfft red tape!

From 1 January 2021 you will not be able to use the existing pet passport scheme. Instead you’ll need to follow a different process, which takes 4 months.

We don't want any animal races anyway because UK bred animals are the bestest.

use separate lanes from EU, EEA and Swiss citizens when queueing

Oh dear; the tempers next summer will be youtube trend material as drunk stagparties etc. blow up waiting in the long queue.

embraer170

Nody wrote: »

The UK government has posted some helpful tips for people wanting to travel in 2021; all benefits of course:
Brexit dividend to the insurance industry.

You missed a key part of that:

It’s particularly important you get travel insurance with the right cover if you have a pre-existing medical condition. This is because the EHIC scheme covers pre-existing conditions, while many travel insurance policies do not.

johnnyskeleton

RobMc59 wrote: »

It looks like the UK intend to use this access as a bargaining tool long term .

Unfortunately, those sneaky EU bureaucrats have twigged this and have included fisheries in their own negotiating strategy.

If the UK won't agree to Common Fisheries, then the UK may not agree tarriff and quota free market access for fish from the UK. While the fishing industry and fish consuming consumers are important to the EU, its paramount concern is preserving fishing stocks. So without agreement that the UK will not overfish, the EU will have no choice but to stop buying their fish.

Call me Al

RobMc59 wrote: »

According to this article in the times,the UK appears determined to retain control-I hope it doesn't result in any incidents-negotiation is much better than gunboat diplomacy as was proven in Dundalk bay when warships were used to arrest two small NI fishing boats.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tensions-with-france-come-to-surface-as-britain-musters-fleet-to-repel-foreign-trawlers-0znvhqq3z

Yeah, they also said there would be no border down the Irish sea and look where we are now.

The dangling of the carrot (licences) is the start of the negotiation phase for fisheries.

robinph

Nody wrote: »

The UK government has posted some helpful tips for people wanting to travel in 2021; all benefits of course:

Well we get Duty Free back again.

The benefits list is getting really long now:
New 50p
Blue passports
Duty Free

RobMc59

Call me Al wrote: »

Yeah, they also said there would be no border down the Irish sea and look where we are now.

The dangling of the carrot (licences) is the start of the negotiation phase for fisheries.

I'd prefer a joint Irish/British fishing zone myself with both nations having control.

MrMusician18

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Replace the word UK with Russia and rewind back 30 years, we do have an analogue in history to compare Brexit too.

Russia isn't a failed state, a failed democracy perhaps - but not a failed state.

CelticRambler

Infini wrote: »

Scotland will be gone from the UK along with NI being reunified with usand back inside the EU by the end of the decade while England rots as a failed state...

I agree with MrMusician18, who echoes remarks made by RobMc59 and others:

MrMusician18 wrote: »

This kind of hyperbole doesn't help. The UK might break up because of the pressures from Brexit, but even going alone England will not become a failed state.

England will not become a "failed state" in any modern sense - take Scotland and NI out of the mix and you're left with a bog-standard, two-party, sort-of democratic-ish, somewhat elitist political class that will continue to run the country for their own amusement, and a general population that (for the most part, based on the last several decades) couldn't really give a fig or a f**k about what their elected representatives do.

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Replace the word UK with Russia and rewind back 30 years, we do have an analogue in history to compare Brexit too.

You'd have to go back about a hundred years to find Russia at the height of its standing in the world. For your 30-years-ago analogy, you'd have to replace the word "UK" with "the Soviet Union" instead of Russia. The CCCP back then was in no way comparable to the UK of today, other having one big country at its heart that had annexed some smaller countries in the past, and then lost them.

So yes, the UK will break up. NI will re-join the EU as part of a United Ireland, Scotland will almost certainly achieve independence and probably join the EU on a faster track than Albania. Some weird stuff might happen with places like Gibraltar, Shetland, the Channel Islands, the Isle of Man, maybe even Cornwall ... but there'll still be enough of England & Wales left, with enough cross-border (and cross-cultural) connections to ensure the territory's survival as an economic entity.

Whether an amputated UK can justify maintaining a permanent seat on the UN's Security Council, however, is another matter entirely. Taking the U out of the UK and the G out of GB to leave a less politically relevant EW gives every wanabee superpower a strong argument in favour of taking over the chair. I think it'd be the ultimate irony (and/or humiliation) if Britain were to be replaced by India at the Security Council.