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Brexit discussion thread XII (Please read OP before posting)

ancapailldorcha

This is the twelfth incarnation of our Brexit discussion thread.

I appreciate that the end of Brexit is or may be in sight (insofar as one can be certain) but please bear the following in mind before posting:

Insults directed at popular figures are not acceptable in this forum
Please do not post memes, videos or comedy links here
Please do not be uncivil to other posters
Please use the report function to alert the mods when necessary
Discussion of Sinn Féin's longstanding policy of abstention from Westminster is not suitable for this thread. Posts on this subject may be deleted

Previous thread is here:

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058016732

United Ireland thread:

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058014553

Scottish Independence thread:

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058023269

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brickster69

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Well, no.
Nobody knows what sort of trade deal the UK wants with the EU, including the UK.

The UK has told the EU. A trade deal on the basis of no alignment, no ECJ, no CAP, no freedom of movement and no CFP.

seamus

brickster69 wrote: »

So 30,000 extra jobs will be created, on top of the 30,000 more jobs that have already been created since Brexit.

Where are you getting 30,000 from? If these 1,400 licences created more than 1,000 jobs they'd be doing well.

RobMc59

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Well, no.

The EU is the world's biggest single market. Nobody knows what sort of trade deal the UK wants with the EU, including the UK.

The can't have the same deal it has now and if it withdraws from the single market then these firms have a powerful incentive to relocate. It'll also be easier than, say a car manufacturer as all they really have to move is people and find them offices on the continent or perhaps in somewhere like Ireland or Malta.

I understand the UK can't have the same trading conditions as an EU country and think the UK 'hierarchy' especially are praying for an acceptable deal and have unfortunately maneuvred themselves into a position where they can't now back down.The situation is muddied further as despite claims to the
contrary,the EU doesn't view trade with the UK as 'insignificant ' and the larger industrial EU manufacturers are keen for a deal to go through.

Quin_Dub

brickster69 wrote: »

So 30,000 extra jobs will be created, on top of the 30,000 more jobs that have already been created since Brexit.

No.. Maybe 1% of that.

The vast majority of these 1,400 companies will be holding companies or other such scenarios where a small office of 20 or 30 people serve as the UK base for 100 different companies, and all the paperwork is proxied between the UK and HQ via this office.

Holding companies - Boiler plate jobs , 20 or 30 people doing admin for 100 companies at a time , not each.

Leroy42

brickster69 wrote: »

The UK has told the EU. A trade deal on the basis of no alignment, no ECJ, no CAP, no freedom of movement and no CFP.

Well, all we know is that the UK has told its own press. What we know is that the UK has agreed to No border in Ireland, EU citizens rights and to pay their financial obligations.

That and the dual line that they want close relationship but no alignment with an organisation which is primarily based on regulations and alignment.

The only thing we do know is that the UK have said lots of things at different points and that at the very least any statement from the UK is worthless until agreement is actually reached.

Quin_Dub

brickster69 wrote: »

The UK has told the EU. A trade deal on the basis of no alignment, no ECJ, no CAP, no freedom of movement and no CFP.

And how does that work?

"We'd like to do business with you , but we have no intention of complying with any of the rules you have for goods and services in your region" ????

The UK once they are out of the EU are free to apply any rules they want for their own internal market or for any deal they make outside the EU , but if they want to do business with the EU then the goods and services that that want to sell there will have to comply with their rules.

I don't understand why this seems so difficult for the UK to grasp??

reslfj

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

...
It'll also be easier than, say a car manufacturer as all they really have to move is people and find them offices on the continent or perhaps in somewhere like Ireland or Malta.

The car manufacturer can likely not move as fast.
But given the spare capacity most auto brands already have in their EU27 factories, they can move much production quite fast.

Much worse the very fast changes expected in car technology will make existing auto factories obsolescent within say 5 years.

Retooling for e.g. electrical cars unlikely to happen in the UK (ref Honda in Swindon), but may keep some car manufacturing of 'fossil-fuel' cars a little longer in the UK (at least to supply the UK market) - IMHO.

Lars

brickster69

Quin_Dub wrote: »

And how does that work?

"We'd like to do business with you , but we have no intention of complying with any of the rules you have for goods and services in your region" ????

The UK once they are out of the EU are free to apply any rules they want for their own internal market or for any deal they make outside the EU , but if they want to do business with the EU then the goods and services that that want to sell there will have to comply with their rules.

I don't understand why this seems so difficult for the UK to grasp??

Of course any company who wants to sell into the EU has to abide by its rules. Also agree that aside from that the UK will do whatever it wants to do elsewhere.

reslfj

brickster69 wrote: »

Of course any company who wants to sell into the EU has to abide by its rules. Also agree that aside from that the UK will do whatever it wants to do elsewhere.

Regulation/standards is everything. Almost all goods can be produced all over the world, but legally selling these goods in the EU and in many places world wide following EU rules requires certification/control - for most products much more expensive than paying tariffs.

The EU SM is - by necessity - one large 'Single set of rules and minimum standards' block.
It has - by necessity - on top legal court , the ECJ, ensuring one set of SM rules applies everywhere and does so without spiralling legal costs.

Lars

ancapailldorcha

RobMc59 wrote: »

I understand the UK can't have the same trading conditions as an EU country and think the UK 'hierarchy' especially are praying for an acceptable deal and have unfortunately maneuvred themselves into a position where they can't now back down.The situation is muddied further as despite claims to the
contrary,the EU doesn't view trade with the UK as 'insignificant ' and the larger industrial EU manufacturers are keen for a deal to go through.

I never said that the EU views the UK as "insignificant". It just accepts that Brexit will happen. Close alignment is the idea but conflicts with the Brexit strain of insipid nationalism that has infected the country.

By the way, the issue goes beyond access. The UK has surrendered its veto and its capacity to push for advancement of the single market in services (it was designed with good in mind). Cameron committed to completion of the single market for services but, well... That didn't exactly pan out.

reslfj wrote: »

The car manufacturer can likely not move as fast.
But given the spare capacity most auto brands already have in their EU27 factories, they can move much production quite fast.

Much worse the very fast changes expected in car technology will make existing auto factories obsolescent within say 5 years.

Retooling for e.g. electrical cars unlikely to happen in the UK (ref Honda in Swindon), but may keep some car manufacturing of 'fossil-fuel' cars a little longer in the UK (at least to supply the UK market) - IMHO.

Lars

That was my point. Car companies need staff, supply chains, factories, etc. Financial firms need little more than staff and offices.

Strazdas

Quin_Dub wrote: »

And how does that work?

"We'd like to do business with you , but we have no intention of complying with any of the rules you have for goods and services in your region" ????

The UK once they are out of the EU are free to apply any rules they want for their own internal market or for any deal they make outside the EU , but if they want to do business with the EU then the goods and services that that want to sell there will have to comply with their rules.

I don't understand why this seems so difficult for the UK to grasp??

I was reading an article a few days ago saying the Brexit Ultras want to obliterate any connection with the EU. It's purely an ideological position, nothing to do with practicalities. They are extremists.

Quin_Dub

brickster69 wrote: »

Of course any company who wants to sell into the EU has to abide by its rules. Also agree that aside from that the UK will do whatever it wants to do elsewhere.

So the whole "There will be no regulatory alignment" schtick is just tabloid fodder and not bound in any form of reality?

And yet the UK politicians and media continue to say it's the EU that are the bad faith negotiators and being disingenuous...

RobMc59

reslfj wrote: »

Regulation/standards is everything. Almost all goods can be produced all over the world, but legally selling these goods in the EU and in many places world wide following EU rules requires certification/control - for most products much more expensive than paying tariffs.

The EU SM is - by necessity - one large 'Single set of rules and minimum standards' block.
It has - by necessity - on top legal court , the ECJ, ensuring one set of SM rules applies everywhere and does so without spiralling legal costs.

Lars

Two points,the UK is currently aligned with EU standards/regulations so why can't they agree to continue abiding by those regulations?-I'd guess no one wants chlorinated chicken or other genetically modified crap from the US.
Secondly,the automobile industry in the UK is foreign owned bar one or two small specialist companies-the days of British Leyland,Triumph etc are long gone.

ArthurDayne

RobMc59 wrote: »

Two points,the UK is currently aligned with EU standards/regulations so why can't they agree to continue abiding by those regulations?-I'd guess no one wants chlorinated chicken or other genetically modified crap from the US.

The key term there is “agree”. Obviously, agreeing to something at the level of international diplomacy requires a country to legally bind itself to obligations. In the case of the UK agreeing to abide by EU standards and regulations, that would essentially be regulatory alignment — and by virtue of binding itself to alignment with the EU many Leavers will call that BRINO.

Imreoir2

RobMc59 wrote: »

Two points,the UK is currently aligned with EU standards/regulations so why can't they agree to continue abiding by those regulations?-I'd guess no one wants chlorinated chicken or other genetically modified crap from the US.
Secondly,the automobile industry in the UK is foreign owned bar one or two small specialist companies-the days of British Leyland,Triumph etc are long gone.

They could, it's their own government that are saying they wont. It is more than merely abiding but the same standards though. The role of the ECJ is crucial and if the UK is outside of that, then it won't be able to maintain the same market access it has.

brickster69

RobMc59 wrote: »

Two points,the UK is currently aligned with EU standards/regulations so why can't they agree to continue abiding by those regulations?

The Uk can align to EU standards and regulations if they wish.But they can also diverge from those if they wish. Maybe they will allign with some and diverge from others.

Imreoir2

brickster69 wrote: »

The Uk can align to EU standards and regulations if they wish.But they can also diverge from those if they wish. Maybe they will allign with some and diverge from others.

Yes, the UK can make such decisions, and suffer the consequences of those decisions.

murphaph

brickster69 wrote: »

The Uk can align to EU standards and regulations if they wish.But they can also diverge from those if they wish. Maybe they will allign with some and diverge from others.

How does this work in practice? What is to be gained by "aligning in some" and "diverging in others"? How does the customs official in Calais know your truck isn't full of "diverged stuff" without checking the paperwork at the very least?

RobMc59

murphaph wrote: »

How does this work in practice? What is to be gained by "aligning in some" and "diverging in others"? How does the customs official in Calais know your truck isn't full of "diverged stuff" without checking the paperwork at the very least?

I don't see why the UK wouldn't want to maintain current standards,this is in the best interests of the people-only the 'get rich quick'brigade would want a lowering of standards,although looking at rees mogg and some of the other tory toffs that would appeal to them

Quin_Dub

murphaph wrote: »

How does this work in practice? What is to be gained by "aligning in some" and "diverging in others"? How does the customs official in Calais know your truck isn't full of "diverged stuff" without checking the paperwork at the very least?

Also - If you drop regulatory alignment then every company selling goods will have to get their products tested/certified for each market adding to the costs significantly.

Unlike today where they get UK certification then they are good to go...

looksee

brickster69 wrote: »

The UK has told the EU. A trade deal on the basis of no alignment, no ECJ, no CAP, no freedom of movement and no CFP.

brickster69 wrote: »

Of course any company who wants to sell into the EU has to abide by its rules. Also agree that aside from that the UK will do whatever it wants to do elsewhere.

brickster69 wrote: »

The Uk can align to EU standards and regulations if they wish.But they can also diverge from those if they wish. Maybe they will allign with some and diverge from others.

Brickster can you explain the sequence of logic here please? You seem to be contradicting yourself. How can there be no alignment, while accepting that to sell into Europe there will have to be alignment, and at the same time the UK gets to choose whether to align or not.

An Ciarraioch

Brexit MEP is shocked to discover the UK will have no input into the EU fisheries committee during the transition period!

https://twitter.com/june_mummery/status/1219624534271238144

Frank Bullitt

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Brexit MEP is shocked to discover the UK will have no input into the EU fisheries committee during the transition period!

https://twitter.com/june_mummery/status/1219624534271238144

Did she say "to ensure British fishes are not punished for their Brexit stance"?

brickster69

looksee wrote: »

Brickster can you explain the sequence of logic here please? You seem to be contradicting yourself. How can there be no alignment, while accepting that to sell into Europe there will have to be alignment, and at the same time the UK gets to choose whether to align or not.

Not really. Every country that exports, has to abide to the standards of the country they are exporting to. That applies to EU exporters to UK and every country in the world.

However if the UK wishes to export goods with a lower standard it is free to do so and likewise import goods of a lower standard if it so wishes.

Quin_Dub

brickster69 wrote: »

Not really. Every country that exports, has to abide to the standards of the country they are exporting to. That applies to EU exporters to UK and every country in the world.

However if the UK wishes to export goods with a lower standard it is free to do so and likewise import goods of a lower standard if it so wishes.

They could always export lower standard items outside the EU , so nothing changes there.

Importing lower standard goods - How is that a good thing for anybody?

Is that a "benefit" of Brexit - The people of the UK get to buy cheap low quality crap??

Nody

Gintonious wrote: »

Did she say "to ensure British fishes are not punished for their Brexit stance"?

Yes, yes she did. I found this comment the best though:

Dr Charles Tannock, a former Conservative MEP from the party's pro-EU wing, joked: "Surely our British fish under UK sovereign control swimming in UK exclusive economic zone will respect true Brexit and stay out of EU common fisheries policy waters so all will be well?"

And I'm sure EU will love to have her sit in and give her opinion on a policy UK no longer has any say in due to their own decision; why would Brexit lead to any consequences for the UK after all?

First Up

brickster69 wrote:

However if the UK wishes to export goods with a lower standard it is free to do so and likewise import goods of a lower standard if it so wishes.

It is free to try but if they don't match EU standards, not many people will buy them and they will be stopped at customs even if they do.

But more importantly, once the UK leaves the Single Market and stops enforcing EU standards , everything going into the EU will be checked for compliance.

Leroy42

Didn't she say was was going to form an independent monitoring group? So is she going to go out on a boat and check each boat and how much fish and decide herself whether it is the right type of fish or not?

[Deleted User]

brickster69 wrote: »

Not really. Every country that exports, has to abide to the standards of the country they are exporting to. That applies to EU exporters to UK and every country in the world.

However if the UK wishes to export goods with a lower standard it is free to do so and likewise import goods of a lower standard if it so wishes.

I'm not very up to speed on this exact sort of thing but it seems likely to me that JIT manufacturing relies on broad standards being applied within its network of suppliers so that a minimum of goods needs to be checked.

So if the UK allows says a lower level of plastics (I dunno.. Fire hazards or poisonous ingestion risk) to be imported from China or somewhere, and those plastics might end up in products they want to export into markets with higher standards (the EU), then it can't really do so easily without it all being checked. Because to not check is for the EU to trust a third party (the UK) that their checks on what they import is of the higher standard needed, higher than their own.

I'm not really sure, though. If I go on Alibaba and have a tonne of plastic tubing sent to Ireland for a manufacturing process, what way does it work when it gets this far? Is China's standard trusted, or are there checks? This is a genuine question.

First Up

Deleted User wrote:

I'm not really sure, though. If I go on Alibaba and have a tonne of plastic tubing sent to Ireland for a manufacturing process, what way does it work when it gets this far? Is China's standard trusted, or are there checks? This is a genuine question.

There are checks and if it doesn't comply with EU standards, it doesn't get in.