Peregrinus wrote: What's quite different is where a state does a deal and them immediately denies, for domestic consumption, that it has done a deal, or that the deal will have the effects that it clearly will have, or that the state will be bound by the deal. Brexit has been characterised throughout by such behaviour on the part of the UK, and it is certainly not "greeted with a knowing smile" on the EU side. It undermines trust, it calls into question the good faith and dependability of the UK, and it definitely leads the EU to seek to nail down their own priorities and requirements in as clear, concrete and binding terms as they can.
Strazdas wrote: » There seems to be a sense of the UK making things up on the hoof and having no longterm plan or vision. The bizarre and chaotic statements from ministers might be a reflection of how chaotic Brexit itself is.
timetogo1 wrote: » All this is ending up doing is making the EU look like they have to deal with a bunch of clowns so nobody is in any doubt as to who to blame. (Well in the UK they'll blame everybody else, including us, but after 31st Jan nobody outside the UK will care who they blame).
Imreoir2 wrote: » Is it just that the UK political system has very little experiance of doing deals of its own with larger entities and does not understand how the game works when you are the smaller party? Other than Brexit what was the last major deal the UK did by itself with a partner bigger than itself? They seem to be treating this process as if it were an unbalenced negotiation with them as the bigger party, is it just that this is the only kind of negotiation posture the UK has any experiance of in the modern era and as such is using tactics that do not reflect their position because that is all they have in the bag? They were a big fish within the EU and through the EU were always a big fish in trade deals. Do they just not understand what it is to be the junior partner to a trade negotiation?
Zubeneschamali wrote: » What this is doing is undermining the UK's reputation as a trustworthy, respectable nation immediately before the UK enters the most important international talks it has been a party to in a generation. No-one is going to trust a word the UK negotiators say in any talks, and will want to see everything in writing up front before wasting any time on them. Since they have shown zero ability to come up with anything on their own (the entire WA was written by the EU team) this does not bode well for them in talks. It has been suggested that they will open talks with the US and Australia before the EU. Australia have already said they will wait to see the shape of the EU deal, and the US are going to lay out a plan for utter national humiliation of the UK and then laugh.
Leroy42 wrote: » It was a point made in the last Brexitcast I think, you will Barnier be negotiating with and why bother when the past has shown that the negotiator hasn't a clear view of what is and isn't acceptable and any agreement is subject to the latest whims of the cabinet? The UK continue to flip flop on everything. Remember the Chequers agreement, which fell apart even before it reached the EU?
Christy42 wrote: » He may also be happy to spin whatever deal the EU offers him and go with that. So what are we actually expecting to change in 11 days?
Leroy42 wrote: » What will be different is that the Brexit, after a few triumphant newspaper inserts, some flag waving etc, will stop being talked about and the real discussions will be behind closed doors.
Zubeneschamali wrote: » That is certainly what Johnson is hoping. I can't see it though, there are too many millions of Remainers just waiting to blame anything and everything on Brexit.
robinph wrote: » Despite what the brexiteers and newspaper media would have you believe, the remain view had not had control of the narrative at all at any point in the process
Zubeneschamali wrote: » While I agree, there is no way the Brexiteers have such total control that they will be able to pretend Brexit is over and done on Feb 1st. Even if Johnson's government and its pet newspapers stop using the word Brexit, there are lots and lots of people just waiting for it all to fail so that they can say "we told you so".
Leroy42 wrote: » Nothing, that is the whole point of the transition. Nothing at all changes. At this stage it actually plays into the whole Brexit idea and you will have the usuals coming out saying that the sky didn't fall in and Project Fear has been debunked yet again. Of course the effects, although anybody paying attention can already see them, will not really start to impact for another year at least, if Dec 2020 timeline is adhered to. What will be different is that the Brexit, after a few triumphant newspaper inserts, some flag waving etc, will stop being talked about and the real discussions will be behind closed doors. It will disappear from the popular narrative, with only politicos and economists, trade experts and business people directly in the line of fire, paying attention.
Leroy42 wrote: » But they have been successfully ignored until now, in fact not only ignored but Brexit has moved from simply leaving the political union to now the clear policy to move as far away from the EU as possible.
timetogo1 wrote: » Hasn't that been the case since before the referendum. I remember hearing "Easiest trade deal in history", "they need us more than we need them", "of course we'd never leave the single market" etc. etc. from senior ministers. You would hope they'd have been more informed / educated than they seem to be. They're flip flipping around constantly. The bigger surprise for me is that 48% of the UK population don't seem to care. All this is ending up doing is making the EU look like they have to deal with a bunch of clowns so nobody is in any doubt as to who to blame. (Well in the UK they'll blame everybody else, including us, but after 31st Jan nobody outside the UK will care who they blame).
moritz1234 wrote: » Cummings has won so far whatever he has set out to achieve, the question is what is his end goal?
moritz1234 wrote: » The weird thing is a lot of people seem now convinced by Cummings' propaganda slogans (even people I know who strongly believed in remaining). Cummings has won so far whatever he has set out to achieve, the question is what is his end goal?
Leroy42 wrote: » The contrary to the whole nothing actually changes after 31st during the transition, is what will the Brexiteers have to show for it? They want parties and bells ringing etc, and of course I understand where they are coming from, but whilst technically they will have left, they are actually, for the transition period, in a worse position then they currently are given they will still be abiding by all the rules without any say and FoM will still exist etc. So will people start to question what it was all about given that nothing changed? Of course they will argue that real change is coming, but then why big up the 31st?
Lemming wrote: » Slogans can only go so far before "its the economy, stupid" decides to kick in the front door and make itself present in ones face. For example, Javid's little brain-f@rt at the weekend had warnings of price rises on foodstuffs as a result; lower - not higher - foodstuff prices were one of the whirlwind benefits to supposedly be had from brexit, especially for those already struggling to make ends meet. Those who think that they have nothing to lose (hence their referendum and subsequent electoral votes) are going to on the receiving end of a brutal education on how things can always get worse than they already are.
ancapailldorcha wrote: » The only way to really reduce food prices IMO would be to adopt the US model and cut tariffs on everything. Of course, this would mean the end of the British farming and fishing industries but we knew that anyway.
Zubeneschamali wrote: » I agree that Leavers will trot out the standard lines, but my point is they will have to keep trotting them out, they will have to keep talking about Brexit because Remoaners are never, ever, ever going to shut up about it. This idea that after Brexit Day, no-one will talk about it is nonsense. In 50 years, someone will pop up and say "Oy, Rees-Mogg said there would be a Brexit dividend around now, where is it please?".
Leroy42 wrote: » Well domestically yes, but wouldn't the UK be aiming to get into the more foreign markets, same as Ireland has done. So aim for a higher value market. Don't ask me how they intend to do it, nothing was stopping them in the past, but needs must I suppose.
ancapailldorcha wrote: » But what markets is the UK aiming for exactly? Unless it plans to get a plethora of smaller ones then it's going to have to make a significant trade off and the result will be the same regardless as I alluded to above.
Capt'n Midnight wrote: » It took from 1996 until October to get China to allow British Beef back in after the whole mad cow thing. And that's all gone again if a cow so much as sneezes.
