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Brexit discussion thread XII (Please read OP before posting)

ancapailldorcha

This is the twelfth incarnation of our Brexit discussion thread.

I appreciate that the end of Brexit is or may be in sight (insofar as one can be certain) but please bear the following in mind before posting:

Insults directed at popular figures are not acceptable in this forum
Please do not post memes, videos or comedy links here
Please do not be uncivil to other posters
Please use the report function to alert the mods when necessary
Discussion of Sinn Féin's longstanding policy of abstention from Westminster is not suitable for this thread. Posts on this subject may be deleted

Previous thread is here:

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058016732

United Ireland thread:

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058014553

Scottish Independence thread:

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058023269

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Zubeneschamali

Strazdas wrote: »

If the EU is still going strong and Brexit UK is struggling somewhat, no amount of lies in the British press will be able to cover this up.

Of course they will - it is the EU's fault for not giving the UK what it deserves, makes me happy we left such a nasty organization.

Anyone saying different is a traitor and probably sabotaging Brexit, 5th column etc.

sondagefaux

SantaCruz wrote: »

This is a bit like the territorial claim to NI that we deleted in the GFA. They reckon we are still really British, even if we won't admit it.

This is why so many Brits think Ireland will leave the EU and rejoin the UK.

Strazdas

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Of course they will - it is the EU's fault for not giving the UK what it deserves, makes me happy we left such a nasty organization.

Anyone saying different is a traitor and probably sabotaging Brexit, 5th column etc.

The Telegraph & Co will go for this angle (lying is what they do) but I suspect they could run into problems. If the mood in the UK was to shift against the Tory government, they risk losing control of the narrative.

CelticRambler

Leroy42 wrote: »

We already see and hear pockets of disagreement with the EU ...

Indeed, but 'twas ever thus. There have always been pockets of disagreement within the EU (EC/EEC), and the reviled, supposedly-unelected, faceless bureaucrats in "Brussels" have 40 years' experience of reconciling those competing demands to achieve a workable consensus. Of course, one of the most troublesome "pockets" over that time has been a certain large island nation off the coast of France ... :rolleyes:

Where the real problem is for the UK, in my view, is the lack of any precise Brexit objective - other than "getting it done". Come February 1st, when Brexit is "done" and the word has been banned from common usage, what then?

This is where the whole project will come unstuck, because although Sunderland Man will be happy to have given two fingers to the EU, to know that the UK has left, (Big Ben bongs or not

), to be able to sit in his factory canteen and talk about football instead of Brexit, he'll be expecting life to go on as normal - complete with all the advantages he's enjoyed during 40 years' membership of the club.

Meanwhile, the (faceless, unelected) bureaucrats in Whitehall will be struggling with reconciling the contradiction of ensuring that everything remains the same or better - as promised by the Brexiters - as Johnson continues to peddle his nonsense about everything being open to change, all the time refusing to be specific about anything ...

I imagine the EU negotiators will come to the table with a long list of detailed proposals, ready to work through each and every one of them taking whatever time is needed; and the GB side will respond with "umm, yeah, I'm not sure we have a position on that yet ..."

johnnyskeleton

BonnieSituation wrote: »

There's 1.64m Irish Citizens in NI.

Sorry I meant 325k who are solely Irish citizens i.e. refuse to accept UK citizenship as well.

johnnyskeleton

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Brexit is also predicated on the idea that once Britain voted to leave other nations would follow. This hasn’t happened and infact has regressed in terms of probability. But it doesn’t stop the pro Brexit posters that float through here magnifying any scraps or hints to that end.

If the Italians were also angling to leave this minute the Brits may well have faced a more positive outlook for trade negotiations. But hey ho, here we are.

Fundamentally, if Britain leave and the EU carries on regardless (particularly if it sees more states accede over the next decade) then Brexit has been a terrible failure from the perspective of its architects. The presumption was not that Britain would be alone, but that Britain was getting out first.

It would be especially galling for the UK if the EU were to go through a process of reforms over the next 10 years too, maybe have an open debate as to whether the EU has become too large too quickly (in terms of competencies more so than in relation to the number of Member States) or introduce direct elections for the Commission etc! I'd say the Brexiteers would love that!

Lemming

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Brexit is also predicated on the idea that once Britain voted to leave other nations would follow. This hasn’t happened and infact has regressed in terms of probability. But it doesn’t stop the pro Brexit posters that float through here magnifying any scraps or hints to that end.

Bold is my emphasis in the above quote

I see it a lot on a daily basis with the news headline updates on my phone; the usual rag suspects like the express and co have headlines about how person-whoever destroys some EU politician/body, or EU in peril over whatever. It's equally applied to Scotland with the SNP. It really is toxic Alice in wonderland bile being fed to a large portion of the general populace on a daily basis.

sondagefaux

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

It would be especially galling for the UK if the EU were to go through a process of reforms over the next 10 years too, maybe have an open debate as to whether the EU has become too large too quickly (in terms of competencies more so than in relation to the number of Member States) or introduce direct elections for the Commission etc! I'd say the Brexiteers would love that!

Brexiteers reject the idea that there is a European demos. In their minds, the EU can never be democratic because of this, no matter how its officials or representatives are chosen.

The best reform the EU could institute would be to give the European Parliament the right to initiate legislation.

It could be subject to certain conditions:

a parliamentary motion for proposed legislation would have to be cleared by the EU's legal service (the CJEU would have the right to give its opinion) to ensure that it fell within the legal powers of the EU

the parliament could only initiate legislation in those areas where the EU has exclusive legal powers (aka exclusive competence)

the parliament could only initiate legislation if the outcome of the proposed legislation could not conflict with the constitutions of the member states (the constitutional courts of the member states would have the right to give their opinions)

the proposed legislation would have to secure the normal qualified majority in the Council (i.e. supported by at least 55% of member states representing at least 65% of the total EU population)

the proposed legislation would have to secure a special qualified majority in the Parliament with at least 55% of allMEPs (not just those voting) from at least 55% of the member states, representing at least 65% of the total EU population supporting it

even if the proposed legislation achieved the support required in the Council and the Parliament, it could still be blocked if at least a simple majority of national parliaments voted (by a simply majority of their members voting; i.e. not a simple majority of all their members, just those voting) to reject it

any proposed legislation blocked in such a way would not be able to be re-tabled for at least five years; it could however be re-tabled within that period under the current procedures whereby the Commission initiates proposed legislation.

CelticRambler

sondagefaux wrote: »

The best reform the EU could institute would be to give the European Parliament the right to initiate legislation.

No need for reform: it already has the right to "initiate" legislation, by instructing the Commission to submit proposals for legislation on projects agreed by the Parliament as worthy of consideration, and if the Commission doesn't do so within the given deadline, it has to explain why.

All annoyingly democratic and accountable, isn't it? :pac:

johnnyskeleton

CelticRambler wrote: »

No need for reform: it already has the right to "initiate" legislation, by instructing the Commission to submit proposals for legislation on projects agreed by the Parliament as worthy of consideration, and if the Commission doesn't do so within the given deadline, it has to explain why.

All annoyingly democratic and accountable, isn't it? :pac:

A friend of mine described it quite well - it's as democratic as it can possibly be, given that it is not a nation state, not a government and not a federation.

Brexiteers criticise the EU for being undemocratic because in their minds it is a federal state. But it isn't. If it becomes a federal state in the future, then it's democratically elected legislature will need to be the ultimate body of power. If it isn't a federal state, then the council of ministers has to be the ultimate body of power.

sondagefaux

CelticRambler wrote: »

No need for reform: it already has the right to "initiate" legislation, by instructing the Commission to submit proposals for legislation on projects agreed by the Parliament as worthy of consideration, and if the Commission doesn't do so within the given deadline, it has to explain why.

All annoyingly democratic and accountable, isn't it? :pac:

Fair enough, and given that the Parliament can sack the entire Commission, I guess the Commission has to either introduce the legislation or convince the Parliament it's not actually needed...

sondagefaux

No memes please.

black forest

Just two days ago the “Institute for Government” published a new 96 pages long paper about “Influencing the EU after Brexit”. Within that are quite interesting graphics and four of them deal with the decision finding within the EU.

As these graphics are too big and making them smaller would be a waste of information please have look at them at the bottom of this post.

https://twitter.com/instituteforgov/status/1217869124212273154?s=21

There is a small article here and the complete pdf with all graphics here.

Have been just overflying it and will have a thorough read later. Just posted to show the processes within the EU. It seems that no member of the UK cabinet ever bothered to have a look at these freely available informations or the organigrams of the EU. They obviously like it to learn the hard way.

After January the gloves will be definitely off and there are already quite obvious signs of the tone getting sharper.

Imreoir2

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

A friend of mine described it quite well - it's as democratic as it can possibly be, given that it is not a nation state, not a government and not a federation.

Brexiteers criticise the EU for being undemocratic because in their minds it is a federal state. But it isn't. If it becomes a federal state in the future, then it's democratically elected legislature will need to be the ultimate body of power. If it isn't a federal state, then the council of ministers has to be the ultimate body of power.

This is the basic contradiction of Euroscepticism. They want power in the EU to be weighted more in favour of the member state, but criticise the EU for having a democratic deficit which exists because power in the EU is weighted in favour of the member state. Eliminitating the democratic defecit they decry would shift power away from the member state.

Imreoir2

black forest wrote: »

Just two days ago the “Institute for Government” published a new 96 pages long paper about “Influencing the EU after Brexit”. Within that are quite interesting graphics and four of them deal with the decision finding within the EU.

As these graphics are too big and making them smaller would be a waste of information please have look at them at the bottom of this post.

https://twitter.com/instituteforgov/status/1217869124212273154?s=21

There is a small article here and the complete pdf with all graphics here.

Have been just overflying it and will have a thorough read later. Just posted to show the processes within the EU. It seems that no member of the UK cabinet ever bothered to have a look at these freely available informations or the organigrams of the EU. They obviously like it to learn the hard way.

After January the gloves will be definitely off and there are already quite obvious signs of the tone getting sharper.

Love a good flow chart.

Strange how these charts seem to show that the commission goes through a huge amount of consultation and feedback with national parliaments, governments, and elected representatives in the European Parliament as it develops its proposals, and that they seem to suggest that the council and parliament have control over commission proposals being adopted. I notice a destinct lack of the commission imposing its will on everyone else.

Surely someone made a mistake?

Enzokk

So there is 2 weeks left for British MEP's in Brussels. As you could expect the Brexit Party wants a big show and dance about them leaving when it will be a somber time for most people there.

Brexit: no union jack-lowering ceremony in European parliament

The part I found interesting is this,

Earlier this week British MEPs were given the deadlines for clearing their offices, terminating staff contracts and returning equipment, such as EU passes, keys and iPads. Many British MEPs are not entitled to the European parliament’s redundancy payment, as they have served for less than a year. “People were upset,” said one source, who described the meeting as “bumpy”.

I guess not many would be upset that they have to return their keys and passes and iPads , but I would think some will be upset to learn they are off the EU gravy train when it comes to payments because they haven't served long enough. Guess which party had the most new MEP's who would fall in this category?

Leroy42

Enzokk wrote: »

I guess not many would be upset that they have to return their keys and passes and iPads , but I would think some will be upset to learn they are off the EU gravy train when it comes to payments because they haven't served long enough. Guess which party had the most new MEP's who would fall in this category?

Its ok, he has stated that he won't be taking it. Of course he didn't actually specify that he had contacted them to refuse it, or that he would send the money somewhere else, but his statement was taken as true.

This is the man that just conned a few hundred thousand from fellow Brexiteers on the basis of registering to run in the GE before he cancelled their campaign and pocketed the money.

Also the man that has been having his rent and expenses paid for by the likes or Arron Banks for the last few years.

theguzman

Guys, I have totally lost interest in Brexit with the last few months and since it is now going ahead does anybody know what would be the situation with regards to duty free between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland or on flights between Ireland and the UK? Has there any arrangements been made yet or what will happen to those shipments of stuff from Amazon etc. Will everything remain the same during the transition period and the rude awakening not happen until further down the line?

Strazdas

theguzman wrote: »

Guys, I have totally lost interest in Brexit with the last few months and since it is now going ahead does anybody know what would be the situation with regards to duty free between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland or on flights between Ireland and the UK? Has there any arrangements been made yet or what will happen to those shipments of stuff from Amazon etc. Will everything remain the same during the transition period and the rude awakening not happen until further down the line?

I believe this is the case, yes. No tariffs or duties will apply during the transition period. It's December 2020 when the problems could start.

tuxy

Everything remains the same for the transition period. During that time both side will have to work hard to have as many agreements in place which would start to remove some of the uncertainty, we don't know what these agreement will be yet. It's possible that the UK amends their law to allow them to ask for an extension on the transition period.

So I can't answer your questions as talks do not start until the transition period starts.
There was talk of an Irish Amazon site but if not it will probably best to order from Germany, France or Spain.

listermint

tuxy wrote: »

Everything remains the same for the transition period. During that time both side will have to work hard to have as many agreements in place which would start to remove some of the uncertainty, we don't know what these agreement will be yet. It's possible that the UK amends their law to allow them to ask for an extension on the transition period.

So I can't answer your questions as talks do not start until the transition period starts.
There was talk of an Irish Amazon site but if not it will probably best to order from Germany, France or Spain.

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2019/1219/1102071-amazon-dublin-warehouse-report/

It's already in the mix

Bit cynical

Imreoir2 wrote: »

This is the basic contradiction of Euroscepticism. They want power in the EU to be weighted more in favour of the member state, but criticise the EU for having a democratic deficit which exists because power in the EU is weighted in favour of the member state. Eliminitating the democratic defecit they decry would shift power away from the member state.

However the converse is not true: shifting power away from the member states does not imply reducing the democratic deficit.

MrMusician18

The UK have published their plans on how they are going to acknowledge the day of freedom:
A special coin will be minted
The PM will address the nation with a healing speech
The cabinet will meet in northern England on 31st January
And there will be a light show on government buildings culminating with a countdown clock projected onto 10 Downing St.

Big Ben won't bong.

Can't say I think much of their plans, particularly the countdown clock.

Enzokk

MrMusician18 wrote: »

The UK have published their plans on how they are going to acknowledge the day of freedom:
A special coin will be minted
The PM will address the nation with a healing speech
The cabinet will meet in northern England on 31st January
And there will be a light show on government buildings culminating with a countdown clock projected onto 10 Downing St.

Big Ben won't bong.

Can't say I think much of their plans, particularly the countdown clock.

Make a healing speech but then treat Brexit as a celebration, that is contradictory. Much like the UK treats WW2 as a victory and thinks back on it fondly this will happen with Brexit as well. They should take heed how the rest of the world is treating this, instead of gloating about it and alienating the 50% of the people who still know this is a mistake.

[Deleted User]

A countdown clock to their MEPs losing their jobs.. Are there many other material differences that happen at the end of the month?

Leroy42

I do wonder what game the UK are playing here?

They continually go on about a close relationship, a FTA within 11 months etc, yet they continually come out with hard line stuff like this;

Sajid Javid: no alignment on EU regulations after Brexit https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jan/18/savid-javid-warns-there-will-be-no-alignment-on-eu-regulations-after-brexit

The election is over so what is the point of creating these red lines before the negotiations even begin?

In an interview with the Financial Times, he said: “There will not be alignment, we will not be a ruletaker, we will not be in the single market and we will not be in the customs union – and we will do this by the end of the year.

“We’re … talking about companies that have known since 2016 that we are leaving the EU.”

First off, its a bit rich to claim that business, or anyone, has known since 2016. The shape of the withdrawal, date etc are still not known!

I note as well that his comments that not all business will

First Up

Leroy42 wrote:

They continually go on about a close relationship, a FTA within 11 months etc, yet they continually come out with hard line stuff like this;

Still clinging to the dream of mutual recognition I assume.

Slow learners.

seanoge

I have been getting my Beer delivered from Germany the last 4 years since I moved to the UK. Got an Email yesterday saying no more deliveries to Uk after 31st. January. This is the start of it.

Shelga

What will the impact be on the automotive industry, if they’re determined to be as unaligned to EU regs as possible?

Capt'n Midnight

FTSE 100 should be going up.

2/3rd's of income of those companies is in foreign currency.

'No alignment' with EU on regulation, Javid tells business

The Food and Drink Federation said it sounded like the "death knell" for frictionless trade with the EU and was likely to cause food prices to rise.

FT link
Forget staying close to EU after Brexit, chancellor tells business

He said Japan's car industry was an example of a manufacturing sector which found success without following EU rules. Except of course for the recent EU-Japan deal. And cars have to follow the local regs.