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Brexit discussion thread XII (Please read OP before posting)

ancapailldorcha

This is the twelfth incarnation of our Brexit discussion thread.

I appreciate that the end of Brexit is or may be in sight (insofar as one can be certain) but please bear the following in mind before posting:

Insults directed at popular figures are not acceptable in this forum
Please do not post memes, videos or comedy links here
Please do not be uncivil to other posters
Please use the report function to alert the mods when necessary
Discussion of Sinn Féin's longstanding policy of abstention from Westminster is not suitable for this thread. Posts on this subject may be deleted

Previous thread is here:

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058016732

United Ireland thread:

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058014553

Scottish Independence thread:

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058023269

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Bit cynical

I think he may have meant that good bound only for NI and not onward to the Republic will not attract a tariff and they won't need to be checked for quality etc. as they will already meet the UK standard.

But of course checks will need to be made on goods entering NI to ensure that is the case, i.e., they are not for export outside of NI. I think he was trying to make this point at the beginning of the video but got muddled.

CelticRambler

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

At the end of the day though, the mistake that the remain side made and still continue to make is that fact-based arguments are enough when they clearly aren't.

I'd re-phrase that as follows: the mistake that the remain side made was to underestimate how powerful BS slogans are compared with fact-based arguments.

But that was a gross error of judgement in the (pre-)referendum campaign, one that allowed Pandora's box be opened. It's a little unfair to say they "continue to make" the same mistake because the BS has since taken on a life of its own, nurtured by a media that is quite happy to heap it into the muck-spreader and let it fly where it will.

The end of the day will, however, see cold, hard, fact-based arguments win out: because bureaucrats love cold, hard, facts and they're the ones doing the negotiating.

Leroy42

Bit cynical wrote: »

I think he may have meant that good bound only for NI and not onward to the Republic will not attract a tariff and they won't need to be checked for quality etc. as they will already meet the UK standard.

But of course checks will need to be made on goods entering NI to ensure that is the case, i.e., they are not for export outside of NI. I think he was trying to make this point at the beginning of the video but got muddled.

In other words he was lying!

Bit cynical

Leroy42 wrote: »

In other words he was lying!

Well I agree he could have been a bit clearer.

Enzokk

Bit cynical wrote: »

I think he may have meant that good bound only for NI and not onward to the Republic will not attract a tariff and they won't need to be checked for quality etc. as they will already meet the UK standard.

But of course checks will need to be made on goods entering NI to ensure that is the case, i.e., they are not for export outside of NI. I think he was trying to make this point at the beginning of the video but got muddled.

I am open to correction but with NI having no border with the EU it means they are going to be subject to EU regulations. The EU requires forms to be filled out when exporting to non-EU countries, of which the UK will finally be one on the 1st February. So either he doesn't understand the way the EU works, or he doesn't know the deal he signed. My bets is on both, but he lied to those people in Northern Ireland and he lied to the country when he kept saying there would be no checks.

Nody

Bit cynical wrote: »

I think he may have meant that good bound only for NI and not onward to the Republic will not attract a tariff and they won't need to be checked for quality etc. as they will already meet the UK standard.

But of course checks will need to be made on goods entering NI to ensure that is the case, i.e., they are not for export outside of NI. I think he was trying to make this point at the beginning of the video but got muddled.

But they do; because the moment they hit NI they have to meet EU standards as well and be compliant with all EU regulation. That's the same reason NI goods going to UK will need to be checked with paperwork as well because they will be considered to come from a third party country in terms of checks & controls.

Leroy42

Bit cynical wrote: »

Well I agree he could have been a bit clearer.

Like by saying something like "yes of course there will have to be checks"

Whilst what he actually said was, "No checks". Simple matter of being unclear about what he said. He should have made it easier to understand!

Now of course anyone with even a passing resemblance of paying attention to Brexit knew he was talking rubbish, and that is fine if the people were willing to accept his lies and still vote for him.

Christy42

Bit cynical wrote: »

I think he may have meant that good bound only for NI and not onward to the Republic will not attract a tariff and they won't need to be checked for quality etc. as they will already meet the UK standard.

But of course checks will need to be made on goods entering NI to ensure that is the case, i.e., they are not for export outside of NI. I think he was trying to make this point at the beginning of the video but got muddled.

He stated no checks. Any checks is therefore lying. Has he posted a correction to say he was unclear?

Daemonic

It's an easy lie to get away with. When questioned on inevitable checks it'll be dismissed with "we wanted to use <insert magic technology here> to avoid checks, but EU intransigence.... " and any effort to explain the actuality will be lost.

Christy42

Daemonic wrote: »

It's an easy lie to get away with. When questioned on inevitable checks it'll be dismissed with "we wanted to use <insert magic technology here> to avoid checks, but EU intransigence.... " and any effort to explain the actuality will be lost.

Yeah it is the Trump school of promises. Lie early and lie often. By the time it is shown to be a lie he will have 100 other lies people are talking about and will forget about this one.

Leroy42

Christy42 wrote: »

Yeah it is the Trump school of promises. Lie early and lie often. By the time it is shown to be a lie he will have 100 other lies people are talking about and will forget about this one.

And you also get the people who try to excuse it with "I think what they meant to say was" or "they just misspoke, it actually obvious what they really meant"

So we have come to the position that lies are fine, but if they are shown to be lies, then they are waved away as either a misunderstanding or some sort of conspiracy by the 'left/right'.

Frank Bullitt

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/fianna-fáil-mep-says-he-cannot-vote-for-brexit-deal-1.4139690

Fianna Fáil MEP Billy Kelleher says he plans to vote against the Brexit deal in the European Parliament over fears it could erode the rights of Irish/EU citizens in Northern Ireland.

A spanner in the works perhaps?

54and56

Leroy42 wrote: »

So we have come to the position that lies are fine, but if they are shown to be lies, then they are waved away as either a misunderstanding or some sort of conspiracy by the 'left/right'.

And if the voting population in the UK can't be ar$ed holding their politicians to account or scrutinising what's being said/promised and choose instead to behave like hapless lemmings they will be treated like lemmings whilst BoJo and co drive on with their crusade to turn the UK into a freewheeling lapdog of the US in a vain and desperate attempt to regain a position in the world which was lost many many years ago. Unfortunately the people of the UK got the government they deserve.

The Brexit debate is over and BoJo has been given carte blanche to implement a divergent arms length relationship with the EU. If that means mass disruption and job losses to certain sectors so that UK Inc can be re-positioned to competitively trade in goods and services with far flung countries rather than the biggest market in the world less than 20 miles away c'est la vie.

Who knows, maybe it will work out and in time (before the next GE in 5 years) the UK economy will have been transformed, those that lost their jobs initially will be back in higher paid employment and the whole country will be free from those horrid EU regulations but if it doesn't work out it won't be BoJo and co who will suffer the most. As usual that will be the lowest paid and most vulnerable in society whose ranks will grow considerably the more the UK morphs into a mini USA type economy.

For me Brexit up until the result of the recent GE was like watching a friend who was about to make a very bad business or relationship type decision the consequences of which they weren't fully aware of. I was interested in debating the issues in the hope that if enough people had enough debates / discussions the decision could be reversed altogether or a last minute tweak made to mitigate the worst effects. That hope ended with the GE result so it's time to accept the friends decision and let the consequences be whatever they will be.

It's important now that the EU offers the UK the best deal it can possibly do without compromising it's own standards or weakening it's own market. It will be somewhat amusing when those who advocated loudest for a complete divergent break from the EU complain they are being treated like all other 3rd countries and not given unfettered free access for goods and services without having to make commitments on level playing field commitments in return. They'll jump up and down and scream about the EU being intransigent and uncooperative and sadly the lemmings will still listen to them, still choose to believe them and probably still re-elect them in 5 years time.

Bit cynical

54and56 wrote: »

And if the voting population in the UK can't be ar$ed holding their politicians to account or scrutinising what's being said/promised and choose instead to behave like hapless lemmings they will be treated like lemmings whilst BoJo and co drive on with their crusade to turn the UK into a freewheeling lapdog of the US in a vain and desperate attempt to regain a position in the world which was lost many many years ago. Unfortunately the people of the UK got the government they deserve.

In fairness, the UK electorate gave the boot to a fair number of MPs in the last election such as Dominic Grieve whom working-class historian David Starky called a "triple traitor" on the basis that he betrayed 1) his party, 2) his country and 3) his parliament. We here in Ireland, on the other hand, continue to vote in the likes of Michael Lowry (who is arguably worse) as TD.

An Ciarraioch

Interesting development today in the European Parliament - all ten Irish MEPs present voted against the plans for a common security and defence policy, as did a majority of German, Italian and a plurality of French members:

https://www.europeaninterest.eu/article/proactive-strategic-european-union/

Vote breakdown details on the VoteWatch EU website.

Edit: No wonder - appears to have proposed deeper cooperation with NATO:

https://www.europeaninterest.eu/article/proactive-strategic-european-union/

woohoo!!!

Gintonious wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/fianna-fáil-mep-says-he-cannot-vote-for-brexit-deal-1.4139690

A spanner in the works perhaps?

He has been voicing his unhappiness with aspects of the WA for the past few weeks.

Frank Bullitt

https://news.sky.com/story/tory-mp-launches-crowdfunding-bid-to-make-big-ben-bong-for-brexit-11909401?dcmp=snt-sf-twitter&utm_source=t.co&utm_medium=referral

Mark Francois plans to help raise the cash to pay for the "iconic timepiece" to ring in the UK's departure from the EU.

Mark Francois...the parody that just keeps on giving.

They are around the 13K make of the 500,000 they need.

Thargor

Remmeber that video of all the NI buisnessmen surrounding Boris at some function up North saying there was going to be red tape from this when he said the "throw it in the bin and call me" line? He was shuffling his feet and looking down at the carpet when answering them, loads of people said it was blatantly obvious he was lying.

Whats the point in discussing this though? Theres a certain political class that can just lie with impunity about everything now and be rewarded for it, complaining is pointless... :mad:

reslfj

Enzokk wrote: »

I am open to correction but with NI having no border with the EU it means they are going to be subject to EU regulations.
....
which the UK will finally be one on the 1st February.

All backstops/front-stop has had a regulatory border in the Irish Sea - TM's had no tariff border UK-EU wide.

Nothing will happen before the end of the transition period - Dec 31. 2020 at the earliest

Lars

ArthurDayne

54and56 wrote: »

And if the voting population in the UK can't be ar$ed holding their politicians to account or scrutinising what's being said/promised and choose instead to behave like hapless lemmings they will be treated like lemmings whilst BoJo and co drive on with their crusade to turn the UK into a freewheeling lapdog of the US in a vain and desperate attempt to regain a position in the world which was lost many many years ago. Unfortunately the people of the UK got the government they deserve.

The Brexit debate is over and BoJo has been given carte blanche to implement a divergent arms length relationship with the EU. If that means mass disruption and job losses to certain sectors so that UK Inc can be re-positioned to competitively trade in goods and services with far flung countries rather than the biggest market in the world less than 20 miles away c'est la vie.

Who knows, maybe it will work out and in time (before the next GE in 5 years) the UK economy will have been transformed, those that lost their jobs initially will be back in higher paid employment and the whole country will be free from those horrid EU regulations but if it doesn't work out it won't be BoJo and co who will suffer the most. As usual that will be the lowest paid and most vulnerable in society whose ranks will grow considerably the more the UK morphs into a mini USA type economy.

For me Brexit up until the result of the recent GE was like watching a friend who was about to make a very bad business or relationship type decision the consequences of which they weren't fully aware of. I was interested in debating the issues in the hope that if enough people had enough debates / discussions the decision could be reversed altogether or a last minute tweak made to mitigate the worst effects. That hope ended with the GE result so it's time to accept the friends decision and let the consequences be whatever they will be.

It's important now that the EU offers the UK the best deal it can possibly do without compromising it's own standards or weakening it's own market. It will be somewhat amusing when those who advocated loudest for a complete divergent break from the EU complain they are being treated like all other 3rd countries and not given unfettered free access for goods and services without having to make commitments on level playing field commitments in return. They'll jump up and down and scream about the EU being intransigent and uncooperative and sadly the lemmings will still listen to them, still choose to believe them and probably still re-elect them in 5 years time.

I have been thinking though — given that Boris Johnson is a guy who pretty much stands for nothing and will advocate whatever makes him popular — there may be another way of interpreting what he’s playing at.

He knows he has to get Brexit done, but I don’t think he’s stupid enough (or at least not well advised enough) to think that he can get a good comprehensive deal with the EU that doesn’t involve elements that many will lambast as BRINO. Furthermore, a comprehensive widely-scoped deal is going to take time, and during all that time he is going to be under constant pressure and scrutiny to get the deal done.

So .... hear me out .....Johnson could well be aiming for a light agreement that contains enough general terms to be seen as “getting Brexit done”. He declares Brexit complete, jingoistic slogans are slung out, the Leavers go wild with patriotic street-party-bunting fervour, the ‘will of the people’ is fulfilled — but most importantly of all the pressure is now off Johnson and the rug of insurgency is pulled from right under the feet of the hardcore Brexiteers. It’s still disruptive and risky for the economy, but the Brexiteers will have essentially been made ideologically redundant.

From that point, as the years go on, the UK can then go about slowly realigning with the EU through a range of boring regulatory agreements that the ordinary man in the street doesn’t give a toss about (most of them being commerce-related and the businesses certainly won’t kick up much of a fuss). Where the purists do scream “this isn’t what the people voted for”, the Brexit-weary British people might be inclined to think “f**k sake not this again”.

So what starts out as Hard Brexit could gradually become BRINO, but Johnson might believe that the average Leaver can be sated with a barebones deal from the start that looks ‘hard’ and go on living in a dreamworld of British exceptionalism. All the while, the complexity of the underlying legal and commercial mechanics that drive capitalism will inexorably grind the UK back into the European regulatory sphere.

There may yet be method to the madness of Boris, but of course everything I say here here is absolute conjecture.

Leroy42

The very fact that Brexit is being stopped being used is indicative of the approach. Also an interview Johnson gave with Peston where he said that once Brexit is done (31st) people won't care about and they will focus on other stuff.

So Johnson, IMO, is working on the basis of 'getting Brexit done' on 31st, with all the bunting, wails of freedom and bells ringing out, and then remove it from the agenda. There are a few pinch points in 2020, notably June when a transition technically needs to be requested and of course the end of the transition period itself, but they will be aiming to minimise any reporting on these and try to deflect onto something else.

We can all already seen the massive drop in Brexit related news in the UK. The bills passed the HoC with barely a murmur. The Express has already started to ramp up it Anti Scottish independence reporting, so that is clearly the next enemy.

Exactly how it turns out is anyones guess at this point. They will proclaim any positive news (which at the moment seems to amount to not bad news) as proof that Brexit is working, whilst ignoring the bad news or simply claiming it is unrelated.

J Mysterio

William Legrande wrote: »

When Sophie in 't Veld MEP spoke in flawless English in response did Ms. Widdecombe listen to her via an interpreter? Is she hard of hearing or is there another reason?

I love her name.

Sophie in the field.

Leroy42

In a lighter issue, I see that Farage, Tice etc continue to be very upset that they are not been given permission for bells ringing and fire works.

Without even bothering to try to care about it, I do find it odd that they are complaining about a decision made entirely by the UK. Isn't this exactly what they wanted? In fact Farage even hobbled his own party to help Johnson get a majority so that Johnson could basically do whatever they wanted.

Strazdas

Leroy42 wrote: »

The very fact that Brexit is being stopped being used is indicative of the approach. Also an interview Johnson gave with Peston where he said that once Brexit is done (31st) people won't care about and they will focus on other stuff.

So Johnson, IMO, is working on the basis of 'getting Brexit done' on 31st, with all the bunting, wails of freedom and bells ringing out, and then remove it from the agenda. There are a few pinch points in 2020, notably June when a transition technically needs to be requested and of course the end of the transition period itself, but they will be aiming to minimise any reporting on these and try to deflect onto something else.

We can all already seen the massive drop in Brexit related news in the UK. The bills passed the HoC with barely a murmur. The Express has already started to ramp up it Anti Scottish independence reporting, so that is clearly the next enemy.

Exactly how it turns out is anyones guess at this point. They will proclaim any positive news (which at the moment seems to amount to not bad news) as proof that Brexit is working, whilst ignoring the bad news or simply claiming it is unrelated.

One theory I've heard for this is that if everything goes belly up, Johnson will try and claim it had nothing to do with Brexit (but nothing to do with him either).

It's debatable whether he would be able to control the narrative though. The UK is rapidly running out of scapegoats for its own problems.

ancapailldorcha

Leroy42 wrote: »

In a lighter issue, I see that Farage, Tice etc continue to be very upset that they are not been given permission for bells ringing and fire works.

Without even bothering to try to care about it, I do find it odd that they are complaining about a decision made entirely by the UK. Isn't this exactly what they wanted? In fact Farage even hobbled his own party to help Johnson get a majority so that Johnson could basically do whatever they wanted.

With respect, I do not know why you would find this odd.

Democracy, sovereignty and immigration while being topics of the utmost importance to any society in this day and age have been whittled down to mere totems in contemporary British political discourse. Immigrants served as singularly effective scapegoats for a series of identikit neoliberal British governments. The EU, which started as a project to maintain peace and prosperity in Europe has now warped into something of an attempt to manage globalisation and the resulting inequality.

To go back to the original point, Farage & Co. have no interest whatsoever in adddressing any of this. As far as I can discern, all they were after was Brexit to save their wealthy benefactors from anti-tax avoidance measures the EU might have implemented. So we see this foot-stamping display of insipid nationalism. They now stand for nothing whatsoever. Farage may have spoken of reforming the House of Lords and voting reform but we know that he was able to do so because FPTP means that the Brexit party would, at the very most claim a single-figure amount of seats last December.

Ultimately, it's a celebration of the fact that the people of this country have voted away some of their own rights for meaningless nationalism, replete with blue French passports, new 50p commemerative coins and now ringing, or rather not ringing bells.

An Ciarraioch

Leroy42 wrote: »

In a lighter issue, I see that Farage, Tice etc continue to be very upset that they are not been given permission for bells ringing and fire works.

Without even bothering to try to care about it, I do find it odd that they are complaining about a decision made entirely by the UK. Isn't this exactly what they wanted? In fact Farage even hobbled his own party to help Johnson get a majority so that Johnson could basically do whatever they wanted.

At least it seems today is their last sitting day in the European Parliament:

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1217797278368456710

Nody

ArthurDayne wrote: »

I have been thinking though — given that Boris Johnson is a guy who pretty much stands for nothing and will advocate whatever makes him popular — there may be another way of interpreting what he’s playing at.

He knows he has to get Brexit done, but I don’t think he’s stupid enough (or at least not well advised enough) to think that he can get a good comprehensive deal with the EU that doesn’t involve elements that many will lambast as BRINO. Furthermore, a comprehensive widely-scoped deal is going to take time, and during all that time he is going to be under constant pressure and scrutiny to get the deal done.

I disagree and allow me to explain why. First of all I agree with you on the character of Boris, he could not care less and it's all about what's in it for him. But this is where we start to differ in view; based on Boris past actions and trying to get friends into well paid jobs etc. I expect him to aim for a well paid "do nothing" consultant gig after being a PM (along with several other MEPs who are all hardcore Brexiteers). That means his view does not matter as much as his sponsor and future employee. Hence I expect him to deliver a bare bone deal as you propose but I don't expect him to slide it into a BRINO afterwards; rather he'll align instead with US standards and approach. He'll claim he's freeing up UK by "not holding companies back in fear", allow GMO "because it's safe and has caused no issues" as a way to resolve the farmers issues in competing. Hedge funds etc. will cash in on the firesale of company assets buying them for cents on the pound to be dismantled and shipped out (machines etc. still have a value in Africa and the likes) while cutting worker protection "to bring it up to the standards of the new millennium and it's workers". Cut taxes (always popular) ala Republicans in the US with a token couple of hundred to your average man and millions for the rich/hedge funds etc. He'll claim to target "fast growing Asian market" as a reason for it as well because that's were the future is; not in old boring stuff in Europe.

After another successful election for him (hence the tax cut when Labour will take about raising taxes) and having Cummings ensured that the state is properly gutted in regulatory, funding, leadership etc. "to make it fit for the current times" he'll retire to his cushy job and let someone else deal with the fall out. And the voters will cheer him on all the way to the slaughterhouse.

An Ciarraioch

https://twitter.com/JakubKrupa/status/1217786253103505408

johnnyskeleton

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

https://twitter.com/JakubKrupa/status/1217786253103505408

Strange statistics. As far as I know, there are about 320k Irish citizens in Northern Ireland alone. I wonder do those figures only relate to GB? In which case, do Shengen area EU citizens not have to register in Northern Ireland.

L1011

Irish citizens don't need to register but can if they have some perverse reason to want to