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GE 2020 Cork North Central. See Mod Note in Post 1

robinbird

Looks like the last seat could be interesting. Opinions?
FF will run two. Guaranteed one seat with a good possibility of two.
Padraig O' Sullivan and either Tony Fitz or Ken O'Flynn.
One seat for FG. Colm Burke on the ticket. They could jeopardize that by running second candidate though.
One seat for SF. They may run two. O'Brien and Gould. If they do Gould could unseat O'Brien.
Labour have strong candidate in Maher. He has a shot at last seat.
Greens have a shot at last seat.
Mick Barry could be in trouble but he has a personal vote so in with a chance of retaining his seat.
So FF 1, FG 1, SG 1
Last seat between FF, Lab, Sinn Fein, Greens and Solidarity.

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robinbird

O'Brien gone.
Did he jump or was he pushed.
If SF ran two Gould would probably have taken the seat

roundymac

Colm Burke god help us. I would'nt vote for him in a fit and I would consider my self a FG voter.

Brussels Sprout

With 3 of the 4 who won their seats in 2016 not running I think the by-election, from 2 months ago, gives us a better than usual preview of what the election will look like.

Obviously the major difference is that instead of 1 seat being on offer there will be 4. If that were the case for that election the quota would have been 5,113

Based on that O’ Sullivan would have been elected with a half quota to spare, Burke would have been narrowly elected on the first count and Gould would have been less than 100 votes short so would certainly have taken a seat.

It’s dangerous to extrapolate on the above given that the turnout was so low (half that of the 2016 election) but I reckon that the 3 of those candidates are all near certainties to take seats.

The hard-left parties didn’t do great in that election so Mick Barry would need a very strong personal vote to hold his seat.

It’ll probably come down to a 3-way battle between himself, the second FF candidate and John Maher for Labour for the final seat with the Green’s Oliver Moran as a long-shot.

robinbird

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

It’ll probably come down to a 3-way battle between himself, the second FF candidate and John Maher for Labour for the final seat with the Green’s Oliver Moran as a long-shot.

Agree. Padraig O'Sullivan easily elected. Colm Burke safe unless FG decide to run two which would be a big mistake. Assume with Jonathon O'Brien now gone that Thomas Gould will be the sole SF candidate and will easily make quota.

So the final seat between Tony Fitz, Maher and Mick Barry.
Greens will do well nationally but seem to be weaker here. FF wll get a quota and a half so transfers and vote management will be important for them to have a chance of two. Maher strong candidate who will outperform Labour.

dulpit

Sorry, I raised a thread without spotting this one: https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058045098

My guess is FF and SF are bankers. I wouldn't be too sure on how the last 2 seats go, I would guess that FG and then Labour or FF get the last, but depends on how things go over the coming weeks. If more nonsense about Dara Murphy comes out (I have to guess there are more stories) then that could hurt Colm Burke...

what the hell!

Sandra Murphy also added to the ticket for FF...

https://www.echolive.ie/corknews/Two-new-candidates-added-to-Fianna-Fail-Cork-North-Central-election-ticket-dc11999b-7984-44b3-bf9f-1ee9d511a955-ds

dulpit

what the hell! wrote: »

Sandra Murphy also added to the ticket for FF...

https://www.echolive.ie/corknews/Two-new-candidates-added-to-Fianna-Fail-Cork-North-Central-election-ticket-dc11999b-7984-44b3-bf9f-1ee9d511a955-ds

Obviously gunning hard for 2 seats so, I assume Sandra Murphy is there to suck up votes and transfer to the other 2 candidates who'd be more well known...

Brussels Sprout

Well this is a very interesting development. Looks like Kenneth O'Flynn wasn't too happy to get let off the FF ticket. He's going running as an Independent!

what the hell!

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

Well this is a very interesting development. Looks like Kenneth O'Flynn wasn't too happy to get let off the FF ticket. He's going running as an Independent!

That’s after throwing a spanner in the works. FF could have shot them selves in the foot there.

Itssoeasy

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

Well this is a very interesting development. Looks like Kenneth O'Flynn wasn't too happy to get let off the FF ticket. He's going running as an Independent!

I mean Noel O Flynn was a big figure in the area and I assumed he'd be selected this time out. Bizarre call but I'm not making those decisions.

dulpit

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

Well this is a very interesting development. Looks like Kenneth O'Flynn wasn't too happy to get let off the FF ticket. He's going running as an Independent!

The reason they didn't select him is he wouldn't have won. He'll steal some FF votes, but can't see him being a factor, other than maybe preventing Tony Fitz nicking that last seat...

mikeym

dulpit wrote: »

The reason they didn't select him is he wouldn't have won. He'll steal some FF votes, but can't see him being a factor, other than maybe preventing Tony Fitz nicking that last seat...

Hes popular guy up in the Northside of Cork City.(O'flynn)

thequarefellow

mikeym wrote: »

Hes popular guy up in the Northside of Cork City.(O'flynn)

Indeed, he topped the poll in the recent local elections. Is his sexuality a problem for FF I wonder?

j8wk2feszrnpao

thequarefellow wrote: »

Is his sexuality a problem for FF I wonder?

Why would it be? Is that based on something?
Don’t think the voters care, so doubt political party’s care.

thequarefellow

munstermagic11 wrote: »

Why would it be? Is that based on something?
Don’t think the voters care, so doubt political party’s care.

I was just recalling the incident where he threatened to resign from FF over a rainbow flag being taken off city hall. Wondered if that was connected to him leaving the party. But on googling I see that it was quite a while ago.

Brussels Sprout

With 3 new-comers getting ahead of him in the party his medium to long-term prospects of following in his father's footsteps and becoming a FF TD are not good. He's instead gambling that his family would have a strong enough personal vote to get him in the running. Probably not a high chance of that but he probably thinks he's got nothing to lose.

robinbird

thequarefellow wrote: »

Indeed, he topped the poll in the recent local elections. Is his sexuality a problem for FF I wonder?

His topping the pole means that he probably thought that he had a good chance of getting the second seat ahead of Tony Fitz if he was on the ticket and he might have. However he has no chance running as an independent. However with FF running 3 and O'Flynn also taking votes there is a good chance that FF will end up with only one seat.

thequarefellow

robinbird wrote: »

O'Brien gone.
Did he jump or was he pushed.

I'm curious about this as well. He was always a huge critic of the FAI but I'd say he had little power to make change, even as a TD. He is quoted as saying that being an opposition TD can be "extremely frustrating, because there's only so much an Opposition TD can do". He added: "I wish I was in government. I wish I could implement change, but it's difficult."

JP Liz V1

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

Well this is a very interesting development. Looks like Kenneth O'Flynn wasn't too happy to get let off the FF ticket. He's going running as an Independent!

He'll do well

Brussels Sprout

Kenneth O'Flynn appears to be reusing his posters from the local elections. They don't actually say FF on them but they are in the FF colours so might be a little bit misleading to people.

robinbird

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

Kenneth O'Flynn appears to be reusing his posters from the local elections. They don't actually say FF on them

He must have been thinking ahead.

robinbird

Sunday Times poll shows big rise in support for FF. If that is borne out in election it looks likely Tony Fitz will take second seat for FF.
Vote management will be crucial but Mick Barry surely now is serious trouble.

Brussels Sprout

I just threw a bet on Tony Fitz based on the latest poll and those odds

dulpit

Colm Burke's office had bricks thrown in through window and 250 posters stolen over the weekend, not cool at all...

https://www.echolive.ie/corknews/Cork-General-Election-candidate-has-constituency-office-window-smashed-and-250-posters-stolen-e23cbf97-1d61-4f04-9365-886d9a3ad005-ds

leahyl

dulpit wrote: »

Colm Burke's office had bricks thrown in through window and 250 posters stolen over the weekend, not cool at all...

https://www.echolive.ie/corknews/Cork-General-Election-candidate-has-constituency-office-window-smashed-and-250-posters-stolen-e23cbf97-1d61-4f04-9365-886d9a3ad005-ds

That's just mindless vandalism from a pack of scumbags, nothing else. I'm by no means a Fine Gael supporter but that is just idiotic behaviour.

dulpit

leahyl wrote: »

That's just mindless vandalism from a pack of scumbags, nothing else. I'm by no means a Fine Gael supporter but that is just idiotic behaviour.

Agreed. Sounds organised though, if it was just the office you'd think it's mindless, but that somebody is going to the posters suggests otherwise...

rino87

A lot of his posters daubed with red paint on Saturday night too.

At least the vandals during the local elections had a sense of humour.... A load of the posters out by killeens direction had googly eyes stuck to the posters, it was genuinely hilarious and, to me, an acceptable form of protest.

Cork Trucker

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

Kenneth O'Flynn appears to be reusing his posters from the local elections. They don't actually say FF on them but they are in the FF colours so might be a little bit misleading to people.

He cut the tops off them where the party name was

expectationlost

nominated candidates being added here https://corkcityreturningofficer.com/index.php/8-general-information/33-nominated-candidates-2020-cork-north-central
who is this guy Sean O'leary who has nominated himself in about 7 different constituencies in Dublin and Cork so far

dulpit

Cork Trucker wrote: »

He cut the tops off them where the party name was

For a business where appearance seems to be so important, especially when it comes to posters, his look awful. There are 3 varieties of them I've seen. 1 looks fine, they've covered the Fianna Fail logo with a white sticker. The other 2 look atrocious though, a diagonal slice across the top to lop off the logo on one, and he has those small diamond ones that he's also chopped off the top.

His leaflet came through the door yesterday, he spent a paragraph talking about how his father used be a td, which doesn't inspire confidence in his own ability...