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GE 2020 Cork North Central. See Mod Note in Post 1

robinbird

Looks like the last seat could be interesting. Opinions?
FF will run two. Guaranteed one seat with a good possibility of two.
Padraig O' Sullivan and either Tony Fitz or Ken O'Flynn.
One seat for FG. Colm Burke on the ticket. They could jeopardize that by running second candidate though.
One seat for SF. They may run two. O'Brien and Gould. If they do Gould could unseat O'Brien.
Labour have strong candidate in Maher. He has a shot at last seat.
Greens have a shot at last seat.
Mick Barry could be in trouble but he has a personal vote so in with a chance of retaining his seat.
So FF 1, FG 1, SG 1
Last seat between FF, Lab, Sinn Fein, Greens and Solidarity.

MOD NOTE:
Lets keep it civil and on-topic. No name-calling or other childish carry-on.
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thequarefellow

munstermagic11 wrote: »

Why would it be? Is that based on something?
Don’t think the voters care, so doubt political party’s care.

I was just recalling the incident where he threatened to resign from FF over a rainbow flag being taken off city hall. Wondered if that was connected to him leaving the party. But on googling I see that it was quite a while ago.

j8wk2feszrnpao

thequarefellow wrote: »

Is his sexuality a problem for FF I wonder?

Why would it be? Is that based on something?
Don’t think the voters care, so doubt political party’s care.

thequarefellow

mikeym wrote: »

Hes popular guy up in the Northside of Cork City.(O'flynn)

Indeed, he topped the poll in the recent local elections. Is his sexuality a problem for FF I wonder?

mikeym

dulpit wrote: »

The reason they didn't select him is he wouldn't have won. He'll steal some FF votes, but can't see him being a factor, other than maybe preventing Tony Fitz nicking that last seat...

Hes popular guy up in the Northside of Cork City.(O'flynn)

dulpit

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

Well this is a very interesting development. Looks like Kenneth O'Flynn wasn't too happy to get let off the FF ticket. He's going running as an Independent!

The reason they didn't select him is he wouldn't have won. He'll steal some FF votes, but can't see him being a factor, other than maybe preventing Tony Fitz nicking that last seat...

Itssoeasy

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

Well this is a very interesting development. Looks like Kenneth O'Flynn wasn't too happy to get let off the FF ticket. He's going running as an Independent!

I mean Noel O Flynn was a big figure in the area and I assumed he'd be selected this time out. Bizarre call but I'm not making those decisions.

what the hell!

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

Well this is a very interesting development. Looks like Kenneth O'Flynn wasn't too happy to get let off the FF ticket. He's going running as an Independent!

That’s after throwing a spanner in the works. FF could have shot them selves in the foot there.

Brussels Sprout

Well this is a very interesting development. Looks like Kenneth O'Flynn wasn't too happy to get let off the FF ticket. He's going running as an Independent!

dulpit

what the hell! wrote: »

Sandra Murphy also added to the ticket for FF...

https://www.echolive.ie/corknews/Two-new-candidates-added-to-Fianna-Fail-Cork-North-Central-election-ticket-dc11999b-7984-44b3-bf9f-1ee9d511a955-ds

Obviously gunning hard for 2 seats so, I assume Sandra Murphy is there to suck up votes and transfer to the other 2 candidates who'd be more well known...

what the hell!

Sandra Murphy also added to the ticket for FF...

https://www.echolive.ie/corknews/Two-new-candidates-added-to-Fianna-Fail-Cork-North-Central-election-ticket-dc11999b-7984-44b3-bf9f-1ee9d511a955-ds

dulpit

Sorry, I raised a thread without spotting this one: https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058045098

My guess is FF and SF are bankers. I wouldn't be too sure on how the last 2 seats go, I would guess that FG and then Labour or FF get the last, but depends on how things go over the coming weeks. If more nonsense about Dara Murphy comes out (I have to guess there are more stories) then that could hurt Colm Burke...

robinbird

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

It’ll probably come down to a 3-way battle between himself, the second FF candidate and John Maher for Labour for the final seat with the Green’s Oliver Moran as a long-shot.

Agree. Padraig O'Sullivan easily elected. Colm Burke safe unless FG decide to run two which would be a big mistake. Assume with Jonathon O'Brien now gone that Thomas Gould will be the sole SF candidate and will easily make quota.

So the final seat between Tony Fitz, Maher and Mick Barry.
Greens will do well nationally but seem to be weaker here. FF wll get a quota and a half so transfers and vote management will be important for them to have a chance of two. Maher strong candidate who will outperform Labour.

Brussels Sprout

With 3 of the 4 who won their seats in 2016 not running I think the by-election, from 2 months ago, gives us a better than usual preview of what the election will look like.

Obviously the major difference is that instead of 1 seat being on offer there will be 4. If that were the case for that election the quota would have been 5,113

Based on that O’ Sullivan would have been elected with a half quota to spare, Burke would have been narrowly elected on the first count and Gould would have been less than 100 votes short so would certainly have taken a seat.

It’s dangerous to extrapolate on the above given that the turnout was so low (half that of the 2016 election) but I reckon that the 3 of those candidates are all near certainties to take seats.

The hard-left parties didn’t do great in that election so Mick Barry would need a very strong personal vote to hold his seat.

It’ll probably come down to a 3-way battle between himself, the second FF candidate and John Maher for Labour for the final seat with the Green’s Oliver Moran as a long-shot.

roundymac

Colm Burke god help us. I would'nt vote for him in a fit and I would consider my self a FG voter.

robinbird

O'Brien gone.
Did he jump or was he pushed.
If SF ran two Gould would probably have taken the seat