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Brexit discussion thread XII (Please read OP before posting)

ancapailldorcha

This is the twelfth incarnation of our Brexit discussion thread.

I appreciate that the end of Brexit is or may be in sight (insofar as one can be certain) but please bear the following in mind before posting:

Insults directed at popular figures are not acceptable in this forum
Please do not post memes, videos or comedy links here
Please do not be uncivil to other posters
Please use the report function to alert the mods when necessary
Discussion of Sinn Féin's longstanding policy of abstention from Westminster is not suitable for this thread. Posts on this subject may be deleted

Previous thread is here:

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058016732

United Ireland thread:

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058014553

Scottish Independence thread:

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058023269

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Strazdas

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

With Johnson's craven WA in place, this is not the worst result for Ireland and the EU. It will be a decade long humiliation for the UK (if the UK lasts that long), and horrible for the poorer half of the English people, but I am past sympathizing with anyone who falls for Johnson's bull.

A large part of me probably wants them to leave on January 31. It ends the whole phenomenon of 'Euroscepticism', UKIP / BXP and Farage, the right wing press ranting about Europe, dumbed down Question Time audiences etc. There's a lot to be said for it.

Zubeneschamali

Strazdas wrote: »

It ends the whole phenomenon of 'Euroscepticism', UKIP / BXP and Farage, the right wing press ranting about Europe, dumbed down Question Time audiences etc.

Bless your innocence! All the fallout (and 10% of GDP is huge) will be the EUs fault.

It'll be worse than the Irish moaners complaining about the EU rescuing us after 2008.

Strazdas

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Bless your innocence! All the fallout (and 10% of GDP is huge) will be the EUs fault.

It'll be worse than the Irish moanets complaining about the EU rescuing us after 2008.

For sure, but they'll be shouting from over the wall so to speak than from inside the tent.

Nobody will be even listening to them at that stage. They'll essentially be arguing among themselves and people in Europe won't give a hoot about what an ex-member state who left in a huff will be saying about them.

Kermit.de.frog

Strazdas wrote: »

A large part of me probably wants them to leave on January 31. It ends the whole phenomenon of 'Euroscepticism', UKIP / BXP and Farage, the right wing press ranting about Europe, dumbed down Question Time audiences etc. There's a lot to be said for it.

Exactly.

Why would any pro EU person want the UK to remain in given all of what the EU would have to put up with then?

Lance the boil.

Joe_ Public

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Exactly.

Why would any pro EU person want the UK to remain in given all of what the EU would have to put up with then?

Lance the boil.

Put up with what really, though? A few brexiteers making a nuisance of themselves in brussels and strasbourg? Bit of a nuisance but no more than that. Probably more eurosceptics in the eu parliament from italy than uk. They can be fairly easily absorbed.

Capt'n Midnight

Strazdas wrote: »

A large part of me probably wants them to leave on January 31. It ends the whole phenomenon of 'Euroscepticism', UKIP / BXP and Farage, the right wing press ranting about Europe, dumbed down Question Time audiences etc. There's a lot to be said for it.

They'll still be chanting "Two world wars, one world cup" in 50 years time.

Best thing would be remain followed by growth once that uncertainty has gone and the orders startup again.

Strazdas

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

They'll still be chanting "Two world wars, one world cup" in 50 years time.

Best thing would be remain followed by growth once that uncertainty has gone and the orders startup again.

At least half the current population seem to be brainwashed Europhobes and completely in thrall to the hard right / alt right. It's difficult to see how they can remain with those numbers.

The hard right in most other member states are actually pro EU and want to see the union survive, not be destroyed.

Irish Praetorian

Strazdas wrote: »

At least half the current population seem to be brainwashed Europhobes and completely in thrall to the hard right / alt right. It's difficult to see how they can remain with those numbers.

The hard right in most other member states are actually pro EU and want to see the union survive, not be destroyed.

I'm not sure one can even give it that much credit. The more and more I look at it the more this entire Brexit fiasco seems to resemble a misguided attempt at solving a political non issue turned into a frantic stab at the sky by the deprived, the despairing or the just plain deluded.

Shelga

No deal Brexit this time next year so, all because of FPTP and 40% of the electorate voting Tory.

Economic chaos. Independent Scotland within 5 years. NI reunification poll within 10 years. Bye bye UK.

Michael Gove actually makes my skin crawl.

Akrasia

Strazdas wrote: »

A large part of me probably wants them to leave on January 31. It ends the whole phenomenon of 'Euroscepticism', UKIP / BXP and Farage, the right wing press ranting about Europe, dumbed down Question Time audiences etc. There's a lot to be said for it.

No it won’t, These eurosceptics will continue to blame the EU for all of Britain’s woes. The Rhetoric will change from ‘The EU won’t let us leave to ‘the EU is punishing us for leaving’ and they’ll accuse the EU of malicious espionage and deliberate sabotage of Britain’s economy

Brexiters are incapable of accepting responsibility for the consequences of their own policies and people who vote for them will seamlessly transition to whatever new victim card is being played at any given time

Shelga

Akrasia wrote: »

No it won’t, These eurosceptics will continue to blame the EU for all of Britain’s woes. The Rhetoric will change from ‘The EU won’t let us leave to ‘the EU is punishing us for leaving’ and they’ll accuse the EU of malicious espionage and deliberate sabotage of Britain’s economy

Brexiters are incapable of accepting responsibility for the consequences of their own policies and people who vote for them will seamlessly transition to whatever new victim card is being played at any given time

Completely agree. One of the only certainties is that this is not going to cause Brexiters to do some much needed self-reflection- they’ll just continue to throw their toys out of the pram.

Akrasia

Strazdas wrote: »

For sure, but they'll be shouting from over the wall so to speak than from inside the tent.

Nobody will be even listening to them at that stage. They'll essentially be arguing among themselves and people in Europe won't give a hoot about what an ex-member state who left in a huff will be saying about them.

in Ireland we’ll still be exposed to them via our media consumption and freedom of movement

And they will still send their tendrils into Europe as champions of eurosceptic parties inside the EU where they will foment dissent and poison the discourse from the outside

Strazdas

Akrasia wrote: »

in Ireland we’ll still be exposed to them via our media consumption and freedom of movement

And they will still send their tendrils into Europe as champions of eurosceptic parties inside the EU where they will foment dissent and poison the discourse from the outside

I would agree with your points, but would anyone in Ireland or the other EU states be even particularly interested in what the citizens and media of a belligerent ex-member state has to say about anything? There would be a touch of them shouting with a megaphone across the Irish Sea and English Channel about it.

Spanish Eyes

Just an observation, but has anyone noticed the relative silence of the DUP lately?

Abortion introduced and SSM, not a whimper AFAIS. Add in the border in the Irish Sea and I wonder what is going on.

I do understand that everyone is in election mode for 12.12 now, but I am surprised that they are relatively quiet at the minute regarding these fundamental (sic) issues for their party and voters.

[Deleted User]

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Just an observation, but has anyone noticed the relative silence of the DUP lately?

Abortion introduced and SSM, not a whimper AFAIS. Add in the border in the Irish Sea and I wonder what is going on.

I do understand that everyone is in election mode for 12.12 now, but I am surprised that they are relatively quiet at the minute regarding these fundamental (sic) issues for their party and voters.

We should be celebrating that fact, not questioning where they're gone. :eek:

gooch2k9

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Just an observation, but has anyone noticed the relative silence of the DUP lately?

Abortion introduced and SSM, not a whimper AFAIS. Add in the border in the Irish Sea and I wonder what is going on.

I do understand that everyone is in election mode for 12.12 now, but I am surprised that they are relatively quiet at the minute regarding these fundamental (sic) issues for their party and voters.

They'll be on NI media but pale into insignifigance compared to the main UK party's coverage.

I do know Dodds is promoting himself as the pro-life candidate in North Belfast.

briany

Shelga wrote: »

No deal Brexit this time next year so, all because of FPTP and 40% of the electorate voting Tory.

Economic chaos. Independent Scotland within 5 years. NI reunification poll within 10 years. Bye bye UK.

Michael Gove actually makes my skin crawl.

I wouldn't automatically assume that Scotland will vote to become independent in the event of a no-deal scenario. I agree it would up the chances of independence, were a 2nd IndyRef to be held, but I also think that the Scots might not have the overall appetite for 3 massive changes in a short space of time (Leaving the EU - Leaving the UK - Joining the EU without the previous opt-outs). You could call that 'compound uncertainty'.

With NI, I would have the same type of thoughts. I also think it would be a mistake to hold an IndyRef or Border Poll too quick after a no-deal where you'd be doing it in an atmosphere of heightened tension and rhetoric. It might be better to go into it when the dust has settled, and people are voting with their heads, not their hearts.

As for Gove, fully agree. His interview with Channel 4 a few nights ago was a bit disturbing. He was almost squaring up to the interviewer. Not that I think Gove could fight his way out of a paper bag, but he definitely seemed confident of his ability to parry away any sort of difficult question that C4 interviewer would ask. A slippery character indeed.

ancapailldorcha

liamtech wrote: »

So there is obviously no chance that you will respond at all to the post on the 2016 brexit referendum... Which you yourself continually argue as being 100% clear in what it was about?

Mod: There's a separate thread for the 2016 referendum. Please use that so this one can be kept to current events.

Stop moaning ffs

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Just an observation, but has anyone noticed the relative silence of the DUP lately?

Abortion introduced and SSM, not a whimper AFAIS. Add in the border in the Irish Sea and I wonder what is going on.

I do understand that everyone is in election mode for 12.12 now, but I am surprised that they are relatively quiet at the minute regarding these fundamental (sic) issues for their party and voters.

Follow them all closely on twitter and they all seem to be canvassing. And digging up murders and attempted murders from 30 years ago to somehow blame their opponents in Sinn Fein and SDLP on in this election.

ancapailldorcha

Mod: Some posts have been used. Please use this thread for analysing the 2016 referendum result:

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058026597

black forest

It took Sir Ivan Rogers, the former UK envoy to the EU in Brussels, quite long to show up again. But the waiting time was worth it. His lecture today at the University of Glasgow was picked up by the FT in an article.

https://twitter.com/chrisgiles_/status/1199034707339628545?s=21

The complete text of Sir Rogers lecture can be read here.

This will be my evening reading sorted.

J Mysterio

https://twitter.com/marcusleroux/status/1199237347839299585

reslfj

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

... much of that figure is trade with the EU, and the EU will lose a similar amount - over a much bigger market, but still a lot of cash.

That is not exactly how it works.

The EU27 continue to have its well working SM (a 445 mill market) and its 60+ world class FTA's and hundreds of trade related agreements in place.

The UK has Israel and the Faeroe Islands and a few others signed up - some even just on a temporary basis.

The EU27 members can rather easily replace its current 6-8% export to the UK with export to other SM members , a little more export using the EU's FTAs and even with the planned UK MFN tariffs - the EU27's export to the UK will probably remain above half of the current level (loss 3-4% max)

Much of this is already going on within EU27 companies.

The UK has even planned lover/zero import MFN WTO tariffs for many goods, while the EU27 will and must maintain its MFN 3. country tariffs - will just add the UK as a another 3. country. The EU-UK balance on trade in goods can easily and most likely will end up even more in favour of the EU27 after even a soft Brexit.

Service is where the UK has a surplus with the EU27, but service has only limited coverage in WTO rules and is very much in limbo right now.
In its published 'No Deal' unilateral rules, the EU has said it would gran UK banks some continued access in the short term - equivalence is word, I think - but this is not a permanent solution at all.

As you write any loss for the EU27 will a much larger population/ a much bigger market - 6.6 times larger in population and apx 6 times larger in terms of GDP.

The important point for employment and the economy is however an easy and free access to the markets - and this is where the UK will be hurt the most.

Lars

PS! I moved my comment here, as it is much more related to Brexit than to 2016.

Seth Brundle

Facepalm moment in the EP
https://twitter.com/TerryReintke/status/1199280140058025984

54and56

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Facepalm moment in the EP
https://twitter.com/TerryReintke/status/1199280140058025984

If ever there was a justification for the "Led by Donkeys" campaign!!

PeadarCo

black forest wrote: »

It took Sir Ivan Rogers, the former UK envoy to the EU in Brussels, quite long to show up again. But the waiting time was worth it. His lecture today at the University of Glasgow was picked up by the FT in an article.

https://twitter.com/chrisgiles_/status/1199034707339628545?s=21

The complete text of Sir Rogers lecture can be read here.

This will be my evening reading sorted.

While the complete text is long. It's a very interesting and informative article. For anyone interested in Brexit it's required reading.

CrabRevolution

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Facepalm moment in the EP
https://twitter.com/TerryReintke/status/1199280140058025984

I'm surprised the Brexit party even tried that line. Normally they operate on a mantra of "The more competence, expertise and experience you have on a topic, the less qualified you are to talk about it".

First Up

black forest wrote:

It took Sir Ivan Rogers, the former UK envoy to the EU in Brussels, quite long to show up again. But the waiting time was worth it. His lecture today at the University of Glasgow was picked up by the FT in an article.

Did it?

If you had been paying attention you'd have known his book "9 Lessons of Brexit" was published last February and he spoke about it at an event in Dublin last March.

trellheim

You can see the Tories trying to handwave a lot of this away during the election but its going to come roaring back ... but they only have to keep the "get brexit done" lala land stuff going for another couple of weeks

Professor Moriarty

trellheim wrote: »

You can see the Tories trying to handwave a lot of this away during the election but its going to come roaring back ... but they only have to keep the "get brexit done" lala land stuff going for another couple of weeks

They have a large lead in the polls for weeks. If they maintain that lead, they will get a substantial majority. All they have to do now is keep their mouths shut and point at Corbyn and Labour.