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Property Market 2019

The_Conductor

As is now becoming a custom- we'll start a new thread to discuss all topics as they pertain to the property market in general, alongside people's predictions and experiences- for the year 2019.

Its going to be an interesting year- with Brexit, if it comes to pass, at the end of March- and to misquote Donald Rumsfeld - the unknown unknowns that are likely to jump out at us, when we least expect them to.

2018 thread is now closed.

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pearcider

OwlsZat wrote: »

I've heard the debt explosion conundrum plenty but struggle to see the doomsday scenario. The debt isn't really going to be called in is it? Whoever does will risk triggering a global recession given how many counties are heavily indebted. Also most the American creditors export heavily to America. Are they really going to bite the hand that feeds them?

The debt is not called in perse. Like the way an avalanche that releases millions of tonnes of snow is caused by a single snowflake that weighs a gram or less, the event itself that triggers the meltdown may be quite innocuous. It’s all about confidence. Once the confidence of the creditor in receiving repayment is lost, it’s impossible to get it back. Once this invisible threshold is reached, the herd will run for the exit. There will be no bid at any price. Of course the stock market will be suspended but it won’t make any difference. Once this happens and the US government is forced to take a write down and balance its books, the correction will be huge and we will go straight back to the property prices of 2012 and there will be no recovery for many years.

OwlsZat

pearcider wrote: »

The US economic expansion is now in its 126th month. However in those 126 months it’s official government debt has gone from 10 trillion to now 23 trillion and rapidly rising. So not genuine growth. Just debt. This gross expansion in debt leaves the US highly vulnerable to a default or currency crisis in the event of a cyclical downturn.

I've heard the debt explosion conundrum plenty but struggle to see the doomsday scenario. The debt isn't really going to be called in is it? Whoever does will risk triggering a global recession given how many counties are heavily indebted. Also most the American creditors export heavily to America. Are they really going to bite the hand that feeds them?

Padre_Pio

19233974 wrote: »

So im after some opinions if people could kindly help.

So any advice? my heart is telling me to buy now and get on with having my own place while my brain is telling me to wait a year to see how the market settles.

I could have written that post myself.

Not sure if it's money burning a hole in my pocket or what, but Ive seen a very nice, affordable house nearby that I'd love to snap up.

pearcider

Mad_maxx wrote: »

recent pause due to fears over hard brexit plus a global slowdown , both off the table , global economy stronger than thought

Hard Brexit is not off the table. It all depends on the election but the UK will be leaving one way or the other. Global economy is not strong except US which is being stimulated by a trillion of deficit spending per annum which cannot last.

The US economic expansion is now in its 126th month. However in those 126 months it’s official government debt has gone from 10 trillion to now 23 trillion and rapidly rising. So not genuine growth. Just debt. This gross expansion in debt leaves the US highly vulnerable to a default or currency crisis in the event of a cyclical downturn.

In the book of Genesis the prophet Joseph interprets the dreams of the Pharaoh and warns him that 7 years of famine will surely follow 7 years of plenty. On the instructions of the Pharaoh Joseph wisely saved 20% of the harvest and Egypt was able to survive the hard times. I suggest people follow this wisdom.

Mic 1972

Mad_maxx wrote: »

recent pause due to fears over hard brexit plus a global slowdown , both off the table , global economy stronger than thought

I'll be the happiest man, my house will be worth more when i sell :-)

Mad_maxx

Mic 1972 wrote: »

there are no sings for that but you never know, maybe banks will start lending crazy money again next year

recent pause due to fears over hard brexit plus a global slowdown , both off the table , global economy stronger than thought

Mic 1972

Mad_maxx wrote: »

its the start of the next leg up

there are no sings for that but you never know, maybe banks will start lending crazy money again next year

Mad_maxx

Mic 1972 wrote: »

The irish economy is evidence that house prices can decrease even if the economy is still growing
Property market peaking is fact, it may pick up again later on but not in the immediate. Asking prices are still being dropped everywhere, you can see it on MyHome under the Market trend section. All arrows are pointing down. Trends don't change overnight in the property market

My advise is not to buy or at least negotiate for a significant price reduction. This is the right time for that.

Buying at the peak of the market is never good advise

its the start of the next leg up

Bluefoam

Mic 1972 wrote: »

The irish economy is evidence that house prices can decrease even if the economy is still growing
Property market peaking is fact, it may pick up again later on but not in the immediate. Asking prices are still being dropped everywhere, you can see it on MyHome under the Market trend section. All arrows are pointing down. Trends don't change overnight in the property market

My advise is not to buy or at least negotiate for a significant price reduction. This is the right time for that.

Buying at the peak of the market is never good advise

But it's not the peak according to your statement.... it's on a downward trend... It can't be both

Mic 1972

Bluefoam wrote: »

Fascinating viewpoint...

Have you factored in a possible €15,000+ rent & extra for bills and costs during that time? Exactly how much are you telling us prices will drop? If the economy is in a downward spiral, in order to effect property prices so drastically, how easy do you think it will be to secure a mortage or ensure job security?

The irish economy is evidence that house prices can decrease even if the economy is still growing
Property market peaking is fact, it may pick up again later on but not in the immediate. Asking prices are still being dropped everywhere, you can see it on MyHome under the Market trend section. All arrows are pointing down. Trends don't change overnight in the property market

My advise is not to buy or at least negotiate for a significant price reduction. This is the right time for that.

Buying at the peak of the market is never good advise

whatever76

19233974 wrote: »

So im after some opinions if people could kindly help.

Currently considering buying. Im single, 34 and have pretty much 375-400k of a mortgage to buy (depending on property and exemption).

Now im torn as im currently renting close enough to the city centre in a really nice house, I get on great with housemates and rent isnt absolutely insane per month (although not too far off the entire mortgage repayments of an average 3 bed semi) but im still able to save a reasonable amount every month.

Now i seem to have this irish thing of an uncontrollable urge to buy a house ingrained in me, and i guess uncertainty around the landlord increasing rent and general issues with rental houses have me wanting to buy now.

So any advice? my heart is telling me to buy now and get on with having my own place while my brain is telling me to wait a year to see how the market settles.

I have just recently bought and in early 40's ..long story but took nearly 2 years ! I was lucky in last year and half I moved home and was able to save the rent and so helped me knock a year or 2 off the term as poster calls out when older you need to look at the term of mortgage as what you are comfortable with.

think no harm to suss out mortgage application and see what you can get and at least know what is needed to get approval - set up alerts in Daft/Myhome for areas that you are interested in living in and you will soon see trend of prices and what out there - I would also look at the properties that are under 350k which in Dublin is lower end ( pending on location) and just see what the lower end is getting you versus what your budget is - that really helped me when budding and what I was willing to go to understanding the baseline ( which is pretty high right now) …. it takes more time than you think so start looking now and just go to viewings. if you see something that hit criteria of affordability, location etc then go for it you hit the jackpot !!

Bluefoam

OwlsZat wrote: »

Are you worried about negative equity? or as you sent on in your article do you believe property is fairly valued?

The article says that general sentiment points to property being fairly valued. That is not my opinion, I was just sharing a relevant article for discussion... as is the nature of this thread.

Why am I worried about negative equity? I don't remember saying that I was concerned about negative equity. However, I have chosen to protect myself against negative equity by buying with a large(ish) deposit. Therefore ensuring that I keep a relative equity stake in the property. That provides security for me as a house buyer, and the bank as a lender....

OwlsZat

Bluefoam wrote: »

I'm in the process of buying... why, what is your preconception?

Are you worried about negative equity? or as you sent on in your article do you believe property is fairly valued?

Villa05

Mickiemcfist wrote:

I see what you're saying, but the trend of housing prices has been continuously upward historically. We had the worst recession in living memory not too long ago, those who held out through it are back where they were equity wise, but were insulated from the sh1tshow of a rental market which developed at the latter half of it.

80's was far worse and more prolonged than the most recent recession. You have to be very careful when a recession caused by asset price inflation is dealt with by pumping up asset prices

Bluefoam wrote:

Deaming is right... willing a crash to happen is kindof sick, because in order to benefit they are hoping someone else will to lose...

You talk about it as if it is casino. Should a housing market be about winning and loosing or about housing people affordably and sustainably.

The incomes being spoken about with regards to housing affordability are way out of reach to the vast majority. Those that fall short are trapped in a rental market that costs more and a significant portion of the population will have to get subsidised accommodation which is a huge drag on the state.

I don't see too many "winners" in such a market and if there are it at a huge cost to society as a whole.

Bluefoam

OwlsZat wrote: »

What year did you buy?

I'm in the process of buying... why, what is your preconception?

OwlsZat

Bluefoam wrote: »

Deaming is right... willing a crash to happen is kindof sick, because in order to benefit they are hoping someone else will to lose...

Comes back to the comment here earlier where a poster wanted old people to die so he could by the house he wanted...

What year did you buy?

Assetbacked

Bluefoam wrote: »

Deaming is right... willing a crash to happen is kindof sick, because in order to benefit they are hoping someone else will to lose...

Comes back to the comment here earlier where a poster wanted old people to die so he could by the house he wanted...

As you said above, we are well insulated. A crash, of the type likely to happen is not the same as the crash that happened before. A crash to happen now would impact institutional property speculators and MNCs but not Irish people really as on an individual level we are not leveraged to the hilt anymore.

Bluefoam

Deleted User wrote: »

People are dreaming here for a serious crash.

Deaming is right... willing a crash to happen is kindof sick, because in order to benefit they are hoping someone else will to lose...

Comes back to the comment here earlier where a poster wanted old people to die so he could by the house he wanted...

[Deleted User]

People are dreaming here for a serious crash. In lots of areas prices are still way off the boom prices. Im from Cork and there is value in the commuter towns and even in the suburbs. Frankfield,ballincollig, carrigaline, grange, wilton, togher, lehenaghmore all have sem Ds from 220 to 270. that is very affordable for a couple.

19233974

I have a very good deal in that i reckon my rent plus bills is a little over 10k per year, albeit for a room in a shared house. Im a doctor so i have fairly decent job security and good further earning potential. Im inclined to see how it goes over the next year as I cant see them swinging much either way, and certainly not more than 10k to make the rental outgoings worth making such a big investment.

Although the insatiable irish urge to buy somewhere remains strong in me!

JohnnyChimpo

Bluefoam wrote: »

Fascinating viewpoint...

Have you factored in a possible €15,000+ rent & extra for bills and costs during that time? Exactly how much are you telling us prices will drop? If the economy is in a downward spiral, in order to effect property prices so drastically, how easy do you think it will be to secure a mortage or ensure job security?

€15,000+ rent? I'm paying about 20k for a 2br flat and its extremely cheap for the area.

The mortgage on the 4br house I just went sale agreed on will be about 25% cheaper than my current rent (which again, is a great deal for city centre)

Bluefoam

Mic 1972 wrote: »

The market is at its peak now. Dont buy
Keep saving for another year and apply for mortgage again when you have more deposit and house prices have fallen a bit

Fascinating viewpoint...

Have you factored in a possible €15,000+ rent & extra for bills and costs during that time? Exactly how much are you telling us prices will drop? If the economy is in a downward spiral, in order to effect property prices so drastically, how easy do you think it will be to secure a mortage or ensure job security?

Mic 1972

19233974 wrote: »

So im after some opinions if people could kindly help.

Currently considering buying. Im single, 34 and have pretty much 375-400k of a mortgage to buy (depending on property and exemption).

Now im torn as im currently renting close enough to the city centre in a really nice house, I get on great with housemates and rent isnt absolutely insane per month (although not too far off the entire mortgage repayments of an average 3 bed semi) but im still able to save a reasonable amount every month.

Now i seem to have this irish thing of an uncontrollable urge to buy a house ingrained in me, and i guess uncertainty around the landlord increasing rent and general issues with rental houses have me wanting to buy now.

So any advice? my heart is telling me to buy now and get on with having my own place while my brain is telling me to wait a year to see how the market settles.

The market is at its peak now. Dont buy
Keep saving for another year and apply for mortgage again when you have more deposit and house prices have fallen a bit

Mickiemcfist

drunkmonkey wrote: »

See I got that advice before the last recession but listened to Paul McWilliams when every one was saying he was a crack pot, doom and gloom merchant, felt like I was backing the wrong horse, turns out he was bang on the money, so bough in the dip and now have loads of equity which would require more than a 50% drop in property before I'm in the red. So that's me sorted, was comfortable in the recession and will be comfortable in the next. That's pure pox I know that but the wiritings on the wall, I absolutely believe if Trump falls so will the global economy. I'd possibly buy in January and take a gamble on brexit but not until the clown show in the states is over.

Well fair play & good that it worked out. However for the vast majority it doesn't work out that way, they lose jobs or get paycuts & the banks don't lend. Rent won't go down as landlords will still need their pound of flesh. If the recession has taught me anything, it's that if stuck in the situation of not being able to pay for your house, I'd much rather not pay a mortgage than not pay rent. If you miss rent payments it'll probably take a year before you're out on your ass, if you miss mortgage you have about a decade & if someone tries to evict you you'll have the bleeding heart brigade stopping the sherriff.

FWIW I'd much prefer a German policy of miss 3 months mortgage & you're out on your ear

SozBbz

Bluefoam wrote: »

Also, Paul/David McWilliams doesn't seem to have the same doom and gloom attitude this time... In fact he seems to think the economy is quite robust this time around.

Yeah this drives me mad. Pre 2008 people though house prices were upward only and things would always be great.

Then the recession happened. Now some people think that recessions are like busses and that one is "due". No other logic, its just that we've seen prices crash massively before, so therefore it will happen agian soon.

Such a swing from unbridled optimism to fatalism.

FWIW I rate McWilliams generally. I agreed with him last time and I agree with him this time. Ireland is a small, open economy and will always feel global shocks. That said, construction here has been a lot more sensible of late and the local economy is strong. While I think its safe to say that we'd all rather Brexit wasnt happening, there will be some upside as we become the only English speaking country in the EU. We are not all off our heads on cheap money anymore, everything we have now is hard got and people are in general more prudent. We were wildly exposed last time because we'd convinced ourselves we were rich but a lot of it was on credit.

While prices have recovered a lot, its not simply repeating the mistakes of the past. We're not building 90,000 units a year. Builders are not building in areas with no demand. We're not taking out 100%+ mortgages. Personal Debt is down and people are wiser and more robust.

Bluefoam

Kamili wrote: »

David McWilliams not Paul I think you mean.

Also, Paul/David McWilliams doesn't seem to have the same doom and gloom attitude this time... In fact he seems to think the economy is quite robust this time around.

Kamili

drunkmonkey wrote: »

See I got that advice before the last recession but listened to Paul McWilliams when every one was saying he was a crack pot, doom and gloom merchant, felt like I was backing the wrong horse, turns out he was bang on the money, so bough in the dip and now have loads of equity which would require more than a 50% drop in property before I'm in the red. So that's me sorted, was comfortable in the recession and will be comfortable in the next. That's pure pox I know that but the wiritings on the wall, I absolutely believe if Trump falls so will the global economy. I'd possibly buy in January and take a gamble on brexit but not until the clown show in the states is over.

David McWilliams not Paul I think you mean.

drunkmonkey

See I got that advice before the last recession but listened to Paul McWilliams when every one was saying he was a crack pot, doom and gloom merchant, felt like I was backing the wrong horse, turns out he was bang on the money, so bough in the dip and now have loads of equity which would require more than a 50% drop in property before I'm in the red. So that's me sorted, was comfortable in the recession and will be comfortable in the next. That's pure pox I know that but the wiritings on the wall, I absolutely believe if Trump falls so will the global economy. I'd possibly buy in January and take a gamble on brexit but not until the clown show in the states is over.

Mickiemcfist

drunkmonkey wrote: »

It's not harder, you probably have more saved, earn more money, possibly have a partner to go in with you.
Your assuming were in a never ending cycle of house price rises, we are on a long enough time scale but there's highs and lows in that cycle, I'd say were near a high. With what's happening in the word I think it's a risky time.

I see what you're saying, but the trend of housing prices has been continuously upward historically. We had the worst recession in living memory not too long ago, those who held out through it are back where they were equity wise, but were insulated from the sh1tshow of a rental market which developed at the latter half of it.

You're recommending he gambles on having a partner, gambles on earning more money & gambles on being able to save more. His rent is probably not far off what his mortgage would be so it's a no brainer for me tbh. He's single so he could probably happily rent out a room or two to completely cover the mortgage at the minute, that's what I'd be doing.

Bluefoam

drunkmonkey wrote: »

It's not harder, you probably have more saved, earn more money, possibly have a partner to go in with you.
Your assuming were in a never ending cycle of house price rises, we are on a long enough time scale but there's highs and lows in that cycle, I'd say were near a high. With what's happening in the word I think it's a risky time.

Sure theres peaks and troughs... but ultimately throughout history, property prices have risen & will continue to do so. They may increntally drop, but will rise again.