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Charts ( Up to T120 ) Autumn 2019 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

Meteorite58

Quite windy and blustery on Weds from a NW direction and feeling cool , more so in Northern counties. Gradient has been tightening over the last few runs, marine warnings and could see wind warnings in Northern counties.

Will definitely feel more Autumnal.

Charts ( Up to T120 ) Autumn 2019 ** READ MOD NOTE IN FIRDT POST**

Mod Note

This thread is for posting / discussing /analyzing charts up to T120 ( in the more reliable time frame).

If your post does not specifically relate to the charts then it doesn't belong here off topic posts will be moved- please use the Seasonal Discussion thread for general chat.

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Villain

An interesting setup looking possible on Friday and Saturday!

https://twitter.com/carlowweather/status/1186183505547550720?s=21

Captain Snow

Villain wrote: »

An interesting setup looking possible on Friday and Saturday!

https://twitter.com/carlowweather/status/1186183505547550720?s=21

NINJA SNOW .......lol

typhoony

Villain wrote: »

An interesting setup looking possible on Friday and Saturday!

https://twitter.com/carlowweather/status/1186183505547550720?s=21

some temperature difference across the UK on Friday night, 15c in the south and -1c in the north

Gonzo

very sudden and short lived temperature drop on Friday and alot of precipitation, mostly rain and possibly sleet in places. Temperatures recover by Saturday.

ens_image.php?geoid=64981&var=201&run=6&date=2019-10-21&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=1

ens_image.php?geoid=64981&var=201&run=6&date=2019-10-21&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=1

Sharp temperature contrast 8pm Friday evening, close to 0C

108-580UK.GIF?21-6

-2C over Leinster Friday night/Saturday morning
120-580UK.GIF?21-6

A very wintry mix Friday evening getting down to low levels, possibly heavy extensive snow on the Wicklow Mountains.

108-574UK.GIF?21-6

Kermit.de.frog

Worth watching potentially, particularly for higher ground (but not exclusively so on some current runs). A couple more days needed yet...

The key is going to be the track of that system - on the northern side there is certainly a chance...but it's knife edge.

SlowBlowin

The highest temperatures in Kerry for this week, on met.ie forcast, are on Friday night, it says 14 degrees Celsius !

Gonzo

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Worth watching potentially, particularly for higher ground (but not exclusively so on some current runs). A couple more days needed yet...

The key is going to be the track of that system - on the northern side there is certainly a chance...but it's knife edge.

It would be much better if we had these charts from late November! Would be very interesting indeed. We're only slightly past the midway point of October, so very, very early to be seeing charts like this!

pad199207

Cold and Wet! Looks thoroughly miserable with some high rainfall totals in places.

Not needed at all.

Kermit.de.frog

Still looking interesting for some inland and higher areas on Friday. Not enough for Kermit to get excited just yet though :pac:

Latest GFS going for a very cold day throughout the southeast with some snowfall through the day.

81-580UK.GIF?22-6

There are still differences to be ironed out but a decent enough possibility of a shock to the system for some.

Gonzo

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Still looking interesting for some inland and higher areas on Friday. Not enough for Kermit to get excited just yet though :pac:

Latest GFS going for a very cold day throughout the southeast with some snowfall through the day.

There are still differences to be ironed out but a decent enough possibility of a shock to the system for some.

even if that happens, will probably be rain/sleet for most of us. Those daytime temperatures for the 3rd week of October are exceptional, we struggle to get those lows even during the height of winter in late December and January.

sideswipe

Does this set up look like lasting for a short timeframe or do ye think it will last through the weekend?

Kermit.de.frog

Just Friday and Friday night, nothing major. More a novelty. Remaining on the chilly side though but not as cold as Friday.

Gonzo

sleet/snow risk is now reduced compared to yesterday with the system looking much further south. Kilkenny, Carlow and Wicklow look most at risk.

78-574UK.GIF?22-6

pauldry

Didnt even look at this weekends weather coz I thought 10c so Im excited to see those low temperatures.

Still just cold here in Sligo with cold rain.

Meteorite58

Coming into the more reliable time frame for this weekend but a lot of uncertainty still at this stage . Complex areas of LP moving in near and over the country. There is a bit of a trend from the last few runs that most of the strongest winds might pass well to our S into France. But there is still very changeable charts being churned out, so the fine details wont be known for a few days yet. Looking wet at times at least, maybe heavy in places although there seems to be a trend that the heaviest rains will stay S of us. Looking a bit windy on coasts mainly for the moment. One chart from the UKMO could produce strong winds but too early to know for sure. Very strong Jet seems to be trending S of us which might help to bring very strong stormy winds into France around Sunday.

If the Jet moves more North along with the track of the LP then it could bring strong winds into Ireland.

Meteorite58

Weekend forecast still evolving, latest ECM 06Z Rapid showing very windy now in Munster early hours of Sat and potentially very wet as it brings the system a bit further N. By no means certain but showing winds up to 120km/h on coasts and gusting up to 100km/h overland, also a wide area with 30 to 50mm in 24 hrs up to midnight Sat.

Meteorite58

Well the ECM 12Z came out and eased off on those winds again keeping them more to the S and shifting the heaviest rain to Kerry and W Cork.

American models showing strong winds sweeping in from the W and across the country, gusting 80 to 90 km/h overland and keeping the highest rainfall totals to the Northern half of the country.

ICON similar to the ECM

ARPEGE showing windy on Atlantic coasts but bulk of strong winds staying offshore ( different alignment of LP's altogether to the others ).

MT mentions uncertainty with the complex pattern as those Met Eireann :

'The unsettled showery weather continues through the weekend with a wet and potentially windy day on Saturday with further spells of rain or showers on Sunday. It is expected there will be drier interludes also and it'll turn cold at night as skies clear with the possibility of frost.

There is a higher than usual level of uncertainty associated with the track of weather systems this weekend due to extensive, deep areas of low pressure active in mid Atlantic'.

Meteorite58

Big difference between the UKMO and ECM on track and shape, UKMO would bring windiest weather into the Southern half of the country, nothing too excessive but windy nonetheless, showing huge rainfall totals to Sunday. So nothing clear as yet, potential for strong winds or a miss and the same with rainfall totals.

JanuarySnowstor

18z gfs looks quite potent for Saturday.
Could well deserve it's own thread by tomorrow if trends continue

Meteorite58

Interesting Weds as an occluded front and trough activity crosses Ireland under increasingly cold mid level and upper airs. Also looks like a negatively trough so will be watching for potential thunderstorm activity. Wouldn't be surprised to see hail showers and some wintry stuff on high ground especially towards evening and into Thurs morning . Could be windy along Atlantic coasts at times both Weds and for a time on Thurs depending on the track of those Lows and how they develop.

Meteorite58

I think the latest model runs in general have upped the predicted rainfall totals a bit for tomorrow in the East . Hard one to forecast and pinpoint where gets the most rainfall as the areas of Low pressure pirouette sending a band of rain in over the East coast for much of the day. EURO 4 might be overdoing it a bit, a cross between the ECM and AROME perhaps.

Meteorite58

Latest Rapid ECMWF/Global Euro HD showing between 20 and 25mm and possibly touching 30mm on some parts of the coast.

Meteorite58

Wet and windy frontal weather to sweep over the country tonight into early Monday morning.

Bit of sleet again in Northern counties.

w8lxztL.png?1

Meteorite58

Models holding the set up of LP crossing the country in a cold air mass Weds into Thurs . Looks like a wet and breezy spell, possibly windy for a time more so on coasts and feeling very cold. Freezing levels will come down quite low possibly producing wintry precipitation, might see some form of snowfall on higher elevations . Marginal as usual especially coming from the NW but has the look of leaving areas slushy early Thurs morning. Evolving so all in the timing and taking lots of parameters into consideration but at present parts of the midlands, E and SE look like a general area that might see wintry precipitation.

JanuarySnowstor

Yes it does look wintry for the South on Wednesday evening. Certainly a high ground risk but perhaps a bit lower down also. It's marginal but with the sun getting ever weaker at this time of year we could get a surprise....

pad199207

I doubt I’ll be waking up to 5-10cm of snow Thursday morning Meteorite lol

Artane2002

Wouldn't the onshore easterly breeze ruin the chance of wintry precipitation for a lot of people in the East? Don't forget the December 2017 slider.

Meteorite58

pad199207 wrote: »

I doubt I’ll be waking up to 5-10cm of snow Thursday morning Meteorite lol

I doubt that much too Pad ( at this stage anyway

) but the ECM has been showing potential for a wintry spell mid week now for a number of runs and again on the 06Z Rapid it again shows from around mid day Weds into Thurs morning. I would imagine could get something like rain to sleet to possible snow later in the day and possibly back to sleet etc. As usual there could be a big difference over rises in the land and lower levels and over relatively short distances.

My limited understanding is that when you have a LP like this with such cold mid level and upper airs , that it can lower the freezing level quite a bit and as snow has shorter to fall it can land as snow, albeit possibly wet snow. So it can snow at slightly higher temperatures than normal. No doubt soundings will come into play soon and need for closer looking at the finer details but has the look of something wintry.

Either way a good opportunity to study if it does lead to accumulations or not and why.

Meteorite58

Models have upped the wind a bit for tonight but mostly just for coasts and to lesser extent coastal counties.

Kermit.de.frog

Parts of the midlands reasonably likely to get a surprise on Wednesday evening with 850hpa temps inland hovering just under -4c and closer to the surface than usual with the 500hpa GP heights. This translates to temperatures at ground level 0 - 2c away from windward coastal counties. Dew points hovering between 0 and 1c.

Still a bit too far out for nitty gritty details but something to keep an eye on.

Certainly scope for sleet and wet snow to lower levels there.

At the moment Wednesday evening seems the best chance.