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Brexit discussion thread XII (Please read OP before posting)

ancapailldorcha

This is the twelfth incarnation of our Brexit discussion thread.

I appreciate that the end of Brexit is or may be in sight (insofar as one can be certain) but please bear the following in mind before posting:

Insults directed at popular figures are not acceptable in this forum
Please do not post memes, videos or comedy links here
Please do not be uncivil to other posters
Please use the report function to alert the mods when necessary
Discussion of Sinn Féin's longstanding policy of abstention from Westminster is not suitable for this thread. Posts on this subject may be deleted

Previous thread is here:

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058016732

United Ireland thread:

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058014553

Scottish Independence thread:

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058023269

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Capt'n Midnight

Danzy wrote: »

In all fairness, they are one of the largest economies in the world and 2nd largest in all of Europe.

The idea no one will deal with them is ludicrous.

They gave reasonable growth and a big market.

Most of the EU has poor growth, they won't close the door on such a big market when they have troubles as is.

How does UK growth match the rest of the OECD since before Brexit ?

If you won't answer that we'll know why. (Here's a clue -£40Bn a year)

And yes the UK will get deals.
Because without imported food the UK is three meals away from riots.
That and announcing that 90% of imports won't have tariffs means other countries can write their own trade terms on a take or leave it basis.

The UK has 8% of trade agreements with non-EU countries. Name one that is better than the EU deal. Now explain why they haven't got a deal with the other non-EU countries they deal with ???

listermint

Danzy wrote: »

In all fairness, they are one of the largest economies in the world and 2nd largest in all of Europe.

The idea no one will deal with them is ludicrous.

They gave reasonable growth and a big market.

Most of the EU has poor growth, they won't close the door on such a big market when they have troubles as is.

Absolute nonsense.

Their position is entirely down to them having been in the EU. The idea that they are in that position simply because they are the UK is a fine example of the baseless factless crap that some posters are putting out on here.

It's Gemma Doherty level nonsense

Capt'n Midnight

stefanovich wrote: »

It's all just opinion at this stage really. I think I have a much higher probability of being correct though.

After this election they will have a much more pro-Brexit parliment. Once Brexit is over the uncertainty will fade and the huge potential in the UK will be unblocked.

Your opinion against measured statistics ?

What huge potential ?

Seriously you need to explain that in the context of lack in investment in general UK manufacturing and limited access to the EU services market eve with a free trade deal (reminder that 80% of the UK economy is services)

L1011

stefanovich wrote: »

It's all just opinion at this stage really. I think I have a much higher probability of being correct though.

After this election they will have a much more pro-Brexit parliment. Once Brexit is over the uncertainty will fade and the huge potential in the UK will be unblocked.

What potential?

stefanovich

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Your opinion against measured statistics ?

What huge potential ?

Seriously you need to explain that in the context of lack in investment in general UK manufacturing and limited access to the EU services market eve with a free trade deal (reminder that 80% of the UK economy is services)

There is no lack of investment in the UK. What are you on about?

Capt'n Midnight

stefanovich wrote: »

The consequences of Brexit cannot be measured until they are out.

The measured consequences of Brexit are £40Bn less revenue a year so far and another £70Bn a year later on.

Combined they would nearly match current NHS send for England.

Capt'n Midnight

stefanovich wrote: »

There is no lack of investment in the UK. What are you on about?

Look up the stats for the car industry investment over the last 5 years and come back when you do.

stefanovich

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Look up the stats for the car industry investment over the last 5 years and come back when you do.

Again, you cannot measure Brexit until it happens. Frustrating Brexit to deliberately damage the economy as the Parliament has done is at fault here.

That said, there is still huge, huge investment in the UK. One industry is one industry.

Letwin_Larry

stefanovich wrote: »

Your comment is so misleading. Why did become such a mess? May, a remainer at heart and with nerves of butter, let the EU bully her.

Boris, dying for an election, was blocked by the parties on your side of the argument. Why? They are terrified of being proven wrong.

The consequences of Brexit cannot be measured until they are out.

certainly Brexit will cause short-medium term disruption. but nobody can say with certainty how Brexit will affect the UK economy in the longterm.

Mark Carney is quite optimistic

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/oct/18/mark-carney-brexit-deal-will-boost-flagging-global-economy

The Brexit deal agreed between London and Brussels will boost growth and could be a turning point for the global economy, the governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, has said.

In an interview with Bloomberg TV in Washington Carney said: “It is good news that there is an agreement. I would expect the economy to pick up from quite a subdued pace.”
He added that the UK was one of the most flexible economies in the world and would cope with life outside the EU: “Household and corporate balance sheets are in good shape. With a transition this economy will adjust.”

Capt'n Midnight

stefanovich wrote: »

Are they out yet? Did Brexit happen?

That's the odd thing.

All this talk of sunny uplands has resulted in a 2.5% lagging behind of the rest of the OECD economies.

The economy is going so well they've barely avoided a recession.

Nothing else has changes as they are still operating within the EU internal market and benefit with the EU trade deals with 70 countries.

Letwin_Larry

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Oh FFS

You guys are just firehosing now.

Mr. Carney added that the Bank had spent the past three years ensuring that financial institutions could cope in the event that the UK left without a deal. “The financial system is ready for any potential outcome,” the governor said.

The Bank believes that businesses have been reluctant to commit to new capital projects due to a lack of clarity about Britain’s future relationship with the EU. “The level of business investment is 25% below where it would otherwise have been. With a deal I would expect a rebound even though it won’t all come back,” said Carney.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/oct/18/mark-carney-brexit-deal-will-boost-flagging-global-economy

The UNCERTAINTY is what is hammering business, not BREXIT because as we know Brexit has not yet happened.

Letwin_Larry

Here is the link to Mr. Carney's latest statement.
In it he clearly cites the UNCERTAINTY of the UK's relationship with it's main trading partners in particular the EU, as the main drag on business investment.
Worth a watch if you are tired of listening to party political propaganda.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2019-11-07/boe-s-carney-on-brexit-trade-uncertainty-u-k-economy-statement-video

Letwin_Larry

stefanovich wrote: »

Refreshing to hear measured and coherent analysis.

it seems to me that people are getting party politics and dislike for certain party leaders entangled with economic "reasoning"

it's important now more than ever, to keep the 2 seperate imo.

Letwin_Larry

L1011 wrote: »

Soundbites again

Firstly, maybe try answer the question for once

Secondly - maybe explain why EU membership lead to the UK not producing anything anyone wants, when that hasn't happened to anyone else.

The USA will be looking for a trade deal so one-sided the UK would need to pay to breathe. The rest of the world has plenty of cheaper services economies to deal with, including those retaining their access to the single largest trading bloc

i'm sorry but you have no way of knowing that. and it sounds like typical anti-American rhetoric you hear from Labour supporters.
of course the US will be seeking the best outcome for themselves, as will the UK. that's just the way it is.
but a good deal is where all sides get something positive. a deal where one side takes all is NOT A GOOD DEAL, and in the longterm probably wont work.

Joe_ Public

The idea that the uncertainty about UKs future would end with brexit is amusing. No deal still wouldnt be off the table and we're still hearing the waffle about concluding deals in a matter of months. Oh, not to forget all the great leverage the uk has going into talks! That old canard dies hard.

Letwin_Larry

yet another victim of Labour antisemitism.

it will be interesting to see what names they will throw at her and how Labour tries to discredit her.

by all accounts the poor woman has been through an awful time of it,

“I left behind a very toxic party on every level,” she tells The Independent while out door-knocking. “I attended my last Labour Party meeting in October last year and vowed never to go back because it was so unpleasant – it was so toxic, there was no humanity in the room.

“Being in the Liberal Democrats is so refreshing and so positive. I can have disagreements with people and we do so in an adult way where people don’t shout and scream at you and hurl abuse in your direction.”

The abuse directed at Berger far exceeded the levels that have become the norm for many MPs. The threats to her safety were deemed so severe that she was forced to have a professional security detail accompany her to Labour’s annual conference last year and, on police advice, has had to take a series of measures to protect her and her family.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/luciana-berger-labour-antisemitism-jeremy-corbyn-election-latest-liberal-democrats-finchley-a9196696.html

An Ciarraioch

First poll of the weekend - gap still considerable, but momentum with Labour:

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1193256433585922048

ancapailldorcha

Locked for review.

ancapailldorcha

Reopened. A ban and several sanctions have been issued. I've done a cleanup which has probably included some legitimate posts.

Please heed the thread OP and charter when posting.

flutered

stefanovich wrote: »

Reminder that the ratings agencies all had positive outlooks for mortgage backed securities in the US.

Blackrock are investing massively the in the UK at the moment I hear.

https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1192926905713987584/photo/1

flutered

Danzy wrote: »

Labour party down about 20% in the North of England and Midlands.

Britain Elects @britainelects

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 41% (-1)
LAB: 29% (+3)
LDEM: 15% (-1)
BREX: 6% (-3)
GRN: 2% (-)

via @OpiniumResearch, 06 - 08 Nov
Chgs. w/ 01 Nov

456
7:57 PM - Nov 9, 2019

L1011

Letwin_Larry wrote: »

i'm sorry but you have no way of knowing that. and it sounds like typical anti-American rhetoric you hear from Labour supporters.
of course the US will be seeking the best outcome for themselves, as will the UK. that's just the way it is.
but a good deal is where all sides get something positive. a deal where one side takes all is NOT A GOOD DEAL, and in the longterm probably wont work.

The UK has nothing the US wants, though. There is no reason for the US to offer a beneficial trade deal.

US investment in the UK for the past 40 years has been to use it as a services base to access the EU. That'll be gone.

26000 Elephants

Letwin_Larry wrote: »

The UNCERTAINTY is what is hammering business, not BREXIT because as we know Brexit has not yet happened.

I'm astonished that you can come on here and pretend that one of those capitalised words is not following from the other.

You are (honestly?) trying to frame the uncertainty as an artificial construct, maliciously prosecuted by the majority of parliament, damaging the economy, because 'Brexit' has not come into existence yet?

This is simple minded attempt to deny that the people who promote Brexit are so clueless as to the details of how it would work or how they would get it through parliament that they have DIRECTLY created the uncertainty that is damaging the economy.

And that's even before you gave figured out what the hell Brexit will actually mean!

Btw, there isnt a single positive thing about Brexit in Cagneys piece. You seem to draw the conclusion that because he hasn't outright claimed that there will be rivers of blood on the streets that Brexit is great. If your bar is that low, does that not set off a few alarm bells in your head?

Strazdas

Letwin_Larry wrote: »

The UNCERTAINTY is what is hammering business, not BREXIT because as we know Brexit has not yet happened.

No, Brexit is the uncertainty, not the 'cause' of it.

It's an extremely chaotic event voted for by an uninformed public. It can not be anything but an uncertainty, as nobody knows whether it can be made work at even a functional level (so bad an idea it looks on paper).

Letwin_Larry

Strazdas wrote: »

No, Brexit is the uncertainty, not the 'cause' of it.

It's an extremely chaotic event voted for by an uninformed public. It can not be anything but an uncertainty, as nobody knows whether it can be made work at even a functional level (so bad an idea it looks on paper).

again i disagree.

to quote The Governor: the UK was one of the most flexible economies in the world and would cope with life outside the EU: “Household and corporate balance sheets are in good shape. With a transition this economy will adjust.”

unless you count Mr. Carney as one of the "uninformed" that is?

Nody

Letwin_Larry wrote: »

Mr. Carney added that the Bank had spent the past three years ensuring that financial institutions could cope in the event that the UK left without a deal. “The financial system is ready for any potential outcome,” the governor said.

The Bank believes that businesses have been reluctant to commit to new capital projects due to a lack of clarity about Britain’s future relationship with the EU. “The level of business investment is 25% below where it would otherwise have been. With a deal I would expect a rebound even though it won’t all come back,” said Carney.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/oct/18/mark-carney-brexit-deal-will-boost-flagging-global-economy

The UNCERTAINTY is what is hammering business, not BREXIT because as we know Brexit has not yet happened.

If you are going to use a quote at least spend the time reading it before posting it; your own quote states clearly that post Brexit investments would be LOWER. Exactly how is that suppose to refute the claim that Brexit is causing less investments and will cause less investments again?

Letwin_Larry wrote: »

i'm sorry but you have no way of knowing that. and it sounds like typical anti-American rhetoric you hear from Labour supporters.
of course the US will be seeking the best outcome for themselves, as will the UK. that's just the way it is.
but a good deal is where all sides get something positive. a deal where one side takes all is NOT A GOOD DEAL, and in the longterm probably wont work.

Funny that; when one party is desperate (UK) and one party has significant more power (Everyone else) there is a clear leaning in the deals. Want to take a guess how all deals UK have signed to date has gone? Want to discuss how Australia has already stated their policy will be to wait to see how badly UK gets shafted before signing a deal so they can see how much they can push? Or how about the publicly posted AND stated policy of US in the UK trade negotiations? The deals will be bad but because UK likes to shoot itself in various body parts they will not have much of an option but bad deals or no deals and seeing how the rest of the world can happily continue trading without the barriers which UK erects by leaving guess who will end up under pressure to get those deals signed asap?

A Dub in Glasgo

Away from the persecution of folk who criticise Israel

- A Conservative Party candidate for the key marginal seat of Wakefield (Antony Calvert) has resigned after The Sunday Times unearthed evidence of his controversial past remarks about food banks and feminism.

listermint

Buy tomorrow's Sunday times.

https://mobile.twitter.com/TomJHarper/status/1193279348851314688?s=20

Looks to be a good one

A Dub in Glasgo

I have a sub and will post the article if wanted

Headshot

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

I have a sub and will post the article if wanted

Please do.