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Property Market 2019

The_Conductor

As is now becoming a custom- we'll start a new thread to discuss all topics as they pertain to the property market in general, alongside people's predictions and experiences- for the year 2019.

Its going to be an interesting year- with Brexit, if it comes to pass, at the end of March- and to misquote Donald Rumsfeld - the unknown unknowns that are likely to jump out at us, when we least expect them to.

2018 thread is now closed.

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riclad

All the tech companys in ireland are making massive profits ,
theres no uber or wework in ireland,
companys that live off vc money who never make a profit,
But the plan is to grab market share and hopefully go for an ipo.
The stock market has been booming for years so they hope to get rich through ipo.s
There may be a tech bubble in the usa but there is not one in ireland ,
Just goggle facebook, intel, google , profits 2018.
if i was buying a house now i would be concerned will prices fall after brexit goe,s through .
is it worth it to pay 250k for a new house
if one third of the house,s are owned by the city council .

19233974

Cuddlesworth wrote: »

House prices stalling in certain top end markets.
Large scale developments scaling back rapidly.
Housing in general scaling past affordability.
Lots of talk of impending global recession.

I don't remember much from 2006 but those seem familiar. I'm optimist in me is hoping the measures the CBI created stagnate the market and keep it in line with inflation. Houses might be overpriced for a lot of people, but at least they are overpriced without a 10% year on year jump. But the pessimist in me thinks once consumer confidence drops, banks will run, cash buyers will run and the market will tank again.

At this point, I think Cherrywood is going to be a wasteland for 50 years and the death knell of many developers.

It will be interesting to see how it develops, you could make fairly solid arguments for it going either way but i would always be fairly fearful of a bust as they come along like clockwork! definitely think it will be stagnant until brexit looks like sorting itself out, im trying to buy at the min in the 400k range so happy to wait it out another 6 months

Bluefoam

riclad wrote: »

All the tech companys in ireland are making massive profits ,
theres no uber or wework in ireland,
companys that live off vc money who never make a profit,
But the plan is to grab market share and hopefully go for an ipo.
The stock market has been booming for years so they hope to get rich through ipo.s
There may be a tech bubble in the usa but there is not one in ireland ,
Just goggle facebook, intel, google , profits 2018.
if i was buying a house now i would be concerned will prices fall after brexit goe,s through .
is it worth it to pay 250k for a new house
if one third of the house,s are owned by the city council .

I don't know what the relevance of all those points are... maybe tell us why they have an effect. However, uber does operate in Ireland, I have used them, most of the cars are towncars using limo licenses. WeWork has a number of locations in Dublin, look at their website... they have cancelled a good few openings, but that is due to their mismanagement of their business... I stiull don't know what that has to do with housing in Ireland. I'm not sure if it's relenabt to your point (I'm not sure what point you are trying to make), but Iconic offices are an Irish company that have a similar model to WeWork, and they are doing very well in the Irish market...

You mention that all the tech companies in Ireland are making a massive profit, but that companies make no profit and live off venture capital... I'm lost

JohnnyChimpo

riclad wrote: »

theres no uber or wework in ireland,

lol, Dublin is more Wework than any other office at this stage

riclad

I think the problem builders have is they can make more money building hotel,s ,office,.s or student accomodation,
than building new house,s in dublin .

snotboogie

Cuddlesworth wrote: »

House prices stalling in certain markets top end markets.
Large scale developments scaling back rapidly.
Housing in general scaling past affordability.
Lots of talk of impending global recession.

I don't remember much from 2006 but those seem familiar. I'm optimist in me is hoping the measures the CBI created stagnate the market and keep it in line with inflation. Houses might be overpriced for a lot of people, but at least they are overpriced without a 10% year on year jump. But the pessimist in me thinks once consumer confidence drops, banks will run, cash buyers will run and the market will tank again.

At this point, I think Cherrywood is going to be a wasteland for 50 years and the death knell of many developers.

House prices stalling in certain markets top end markets.
Yep

Large scale developments scaling back rapidly.
I would not go that far. Lots of messing around with the fast track ABP planning but I am still seeing plenty of large scale developments underway, starting and being planned. I would say that there has been a stalling in the level of growth rather than a scaling back.

Housing in general scaling past affordability.
Houses are not affordable because of a mix of the central bank rules limiting the amount that can be borrowed along with demand and regulations on new housing driving up costs for developers. I think most agree that these regulations are a good thing and there needs to be another work around to entice developers. I think we will see some incentives for specific high density home development in the next year and we will in turn see a shift towards apartment building in Dublin, Cork, Meath and Kildare.

Lots of talk of impending global recession.
This is the real risk.

[Deleted User]

JohnnyChimpo wrote: »

lol, Dublin is more Wework than any other office at this stage

WeWork renting out office space (as is their business) and WeWork employing people in Dublin are very different things.

Bluefoam wrote: »

I don't know what the relevance of all those points are...

Probably because you're jumping in in the middle/end of a discussion. Someone claimed the majority of tech companies in Dublin are loss making and can/will pull out on a whim, this would obviously have knock-on impacts throughout the economy including the housing market. The claim doesn't stand up to any sort of scrutiny though.

Mickiemcfist

JohnnyChimpo wrote: »

lol, Dublin is more Wework than any other office at this stage

And....Uber's offices are on Pembroke st.

Cyrus

Cuddlesworth wrote: »

House prices stalling in certain top end markets.

that happened about 12 months ago to be fair.

Bluefoam

snotboogie wrote: »

Housing in general scaling past affordability.

People are still buying what is available... therefore it is affordable. The problem is supply. The lack of housing stock is what is driving affordability beyond many...

I'm affraid that home ownership will be a luxury in the future rather than the norm... The local athorities are already competing against individuals in the property market and inflating the prices beyond potential buyers.

FastFullBack

New small development in Ballincollig, Cork launch Monday, just 14 houses. Four 4 bed detached @ €475K and ten 4 bed semi-d @ €375K.
As of today all the detached are sold and 7 of the semi-d's are sold.

Market is still pretty hot in certain area's.

19233974

TBF i shudder to think what kind of state the market would be in if the lending rules were relaxed, its crap that people cant afford homes but the problem is supply of homes for sale. The massive build to let developments are not helping the situation, theres practically no new build apartments for sale close to the city centre

sportsfan90

FastFullBack wrote: »

New small development in Ballincollig, Cork launch Monday, just 14 houses. Four 4 bed detached @ €475K and ten 4 bed semi-d @ €375K.
As of today all the detached are sold and 7 of the semi-d's are sold.

Market is still pretty hot in certain area's.

Which development is this FastFullBack?

Dolbhad

sportsfan90 wrote: »

Which development is this FastFullBack?

Same question!

FastFullBack

Maglin Green its called. Taken off Daft already so I'd say all houses are gone

OwlsZat

The problem has been the same for a huge amount of time. It's too expensive to build homes in Ireland. A huge proportion of it is tax. Yet the government don't want to reduce the cost of building which prevents the houses getting financed and built in the first place. It's a stalemate. Prices will stay steady and time will trickle by until we melt it all down again in the next Global Recession. The only unknown is how long it will take.

tobsey

Cuddlesworth wrote: »

House prices stalling in certain top end markets.
Large scale developments scaling back rapidly.
Housing in general scaling past affordability.
Lots of talk of impending global recession.

I don't remember much from 2006 but those seem familiar. I'm optimist in me is hoping the measures the CBI created stagnate the market and keep it in line with inflation. Houses might be overpriced for a lot of people, but at least they are overpriced without a 10% year on year jump. But the pessimist in me thinks once consumer confidence drops, banks will run, cash buyers will run and the market will tank again.

At this point, I think Cherrywood is going to be a wasteland for 50 years and the death knell of many developers.

One major difference with 2006 is there were around 50k new home completions around that time. I don’t think we have even half that this year. Lots of apartments and houses were bought using 100%credit or using equity from previously purchased properties, which only had that equity due to the rise in property prices. I don’t believe there is that same credit bubble this time, therefore the chances of a collapse in values is much lower, although not impossible.

Normajeanjones

I went to view an apartment in Dublin last weekend at an open viewing. I saw no one else viewing the apartment, but I arrived five to ten minutes after the specified time so maybe there had been viewers. The estate agent gave me a flyer but didn’t make an effort to talk to me really. Let me wander around and view the apartment.

The apartment has now gone sale agreed in under two weeks of being listed. Is this very fast? Was it a genuine sale at all? The estate agent making no effort with me makes me wonder.

Oh and just to add , the apartment was last sold in Feb 2018. Was done up a bit since, paint new flooring. Short time to own and sell?

Mic 1972

Normajeanjones wrote: »

I went to view an apartment in Dublin last weekend at an open viewing. I saw no one else viewing the apartment, but I arrived five to ten minutes after the specified time so maybe there had been viewers. The estate agent gave me a flyer but didn’t make an effort to talk to me really. Let me wander around and view the apartment.

The apartment has now gone sale agreed in under two weeks of being listed. Is this very fast? Was it a genuine sale at all? The estate agent making no effort with me makes me wonder.

Oh and just to add , the apartment was last sold in Feb 2018. Was done up a bit since, paint new flooring. Short time to own and sell?

is the link to the sale agreed apt still available online?

duffman13

Normajeanjones wrote: »

I went to view an apartment in Dublin last weekend at an open viewing. I saw no one else viewing the apartment, but I arrived five to ten minutes after the specified time so maybe there had been viewers. The estate agent gave me a flyer but didn’t make an effort to talk to me really. Let me wander around and view the apartment.

The apartment has now gone sale agreed in under two weeks of being listed. Is this very fast? Was it a genuine sale at all? The estate agent making no effort with me makes me wonder.

Oh and just to add , the apartment was last sold in Feb 2018. Was done up a bit since, paint new flooring. Short time to own and sell?

Hard to know, property could have been viewed a few times, EA could have had a good firm bid in and was due at another viewing hence wasn't too pushy.

Cyrus

Normajeanjones wrote: »

I went to view an apartment in Dublin last weekend at an open viewing. I saw no one else viewing the apartment, but I arrived five to ten minutes after the specified time so maybe there had been viewers. The estate agent gave me a flyer but didn’t make an effort to talk to me really. Let me wander around and view the apartment.

The apartment has now gone sale agreed in under two weeks of being listed. Is this very fast? Was it a genuine sale at all? The estate agent making no effort with me makes me wonder.

Oh and just to add , the apartment was last sold in Feb 2018. Was done up a bit since, paint new flooring. Short time to own and sell?

Why do you care ?

Normajeanjones

Cyrus wrote: »

Why do you care ?

Because I’m interested in how the property market is at the moment.
I hadn’t seen other similar properties get advertised and go sale agreed as quickly.
And that the estate agent seemed disinterested in me as a potential buyer when I viewed.

JJJackal

Normajeanjones wrote: »

I went to view an apartment in Dublin last weekend at an open viewing. I saw no one else viewing the apartment, but I arrived five to ten minutes after the specified time so maybe there had been viewers. The estate agent gave me a flyer but didn’t make an effort to talk to me really. Let me wander around and view the apartment.

The apartment has now gone sale agreed in under two weeks of being listed. Is this very fast? Was it a genuine sale at all? The estate agent making no effort with me makes me wonder.

Oh and just to add , the apartment was last sold in Feb 2018. Was done up a bit since, paint new flooring. Short time to own and sell?

Maybe the EA knew the deal was almost done - not to interested in getting another bidder to slow down the sale for the sake of 10 or 50 euro (that would be his cut of the price increase)

twiddleypop

JJJackal wrote: »

Maybe the EA knew the deal was almost done - not to interested in getting another bidder to slow down the sale for the sake of 10 or 50 euro (that would be his cut of the price increase)

Hm I've had a similar experience with EA I think only I didn't even get to view the property!

Been calling for 2 weeks trying to get appointment and being told they would call back and never do?

Could it be a done deal and they just don't want to say so?

JJJackal

twiddleypop wrote: »

Hm I've had a similar experience with EA I think only I didn't even get to view the property!

Been calling for 2 weeks trying to get appointment and being told they would call back and never do?

Could it be a done deal and they just don't want to say so?

I would say there is a stage in every sale where they dont really went new buyers come in. At the end of the day, the seller, buyer and EA want it done.

However they dont want to get rid of you incase it falls through

Mad_maxx

Normajeanjones wrote: »

Because I’m interested in how the property market is at the moment.
I hadn’t seen other similar properties get advertised and go sale agreed as quickly.
And that the estate agent seemed disinterested in me as a potential buyer when I viewed.

The market is moving again, brief lull for four or five months there

Bigmac1euro

bdmc5 wrote: »

As someone who had the same dilemma as you, all i can say is keep an open mind as the reasons you state for dismissing new builts are sweeping generalisations or incorrect in many cases. As one of the posters mentioned above there a new builds and plenty of them in established areas with great infrastructure and services.

There are certainly no 2nd home 100k cheaper than new builds in Cork where i bought unless there are serious compromises to roofing issues, insulation, plumbing or layout etc. Theres perhaps 40k to 50k in the difference but taking off the FTB grant and the cost involved in bringing the 2nd hand house to any semblance of spec to a new build and new builts worked out the same if not 20-30k cheaper where we looked in Blackrock.

Theres no doubt there are compromises in garden size Vs 2nd hand home but for us it was all about the interior. A more spacious home to your spec rather than have to work around other peoples tastes. I get alot of satisfaction in knowing my wife and i and small baby are the first to make memories in our house built for us. Just my 2 cents:)

I’ll always keep an open mind, but I’ve been thinking this for a while now. I find some of the new estates feel quite crammed, in saying that the hollystown development is impressive in that it’s not as crammed feeling. The prices just keep going up with each phase in most developments though I do think this has stopped now. When I started looking at new builds the price just kept getting too unrealistic and I wouldn’t like to commit to a mortgage of 400k I’m trying to stay under 300k if possible. And you won’t get a new build for that unless. I head out to Meath. With terrible transport and no family or anything around. I am glad that the new property market appears to be taking a lot of the pressure away from the 2nd hand market. So hopefully people keep buying and opting for new builds. I’m currently going by a new estate on the bus now. This new development was reasonably priced though the layout looks terrible. Also it backs onto a halting site. So no thanks. Some of the houses seem to have no privacy to the front or back. Everything’s on top of each other.

Mic 1972

Bigmac1euro wrote: »

I’ll always keep an open mind, but I’ve been thinking this for a while now. I find some of the new estates feel quite crammed, in saying that the hollystown development is impressive in that it’s not as crammed feeling. The prices just keep going up with each phase in most developments though I do think this has stopped now. When I started looking at new builds the price just kept getting too unrealistic and I wouldn’t like to commit to a mortgage of 400k I’m trying to stay under 300k if possible. And you won’t get a new build for that unless. I head out to Meath. With terrible transport and no family or anything around. I am glad that the new property market appears to be taking a lot of the pressure away from the 2nd hand market. So hopefully people keep buying and opting for new builds. I’m currently going by a new estate on the bus now. This new development was reasonably priced though the layout looks terrible. Also it backs onto a halting site. So no thanks. Some of the houses seem to have no privacy to the front or back. Everything’s on top of each other.

New estates do look crammed. The Hansfiled development in Ongar, D15 is a typical example of that with parking space instead of front lawn and very narrow lanes to drive through.The estate is still being expanded so there must be damand, but they no longer advertise on Daft which is interesting

hmmm

Brexit is now largely off the table as a risk.
Builders are building only where there is demand.
Banks are lending prudently.
High hopes of a US/China trade deal.
Markets are moving out of bonds into equities signalling optimism.

The 'For sale' market certainly looks to have reached a reasonable equilibrium - the overhang of landlords looking to sell has largely cleared, prices aren't doing much up or down, stuff is selling.

The 'Rental' market is still completely screwed. I'm seeing signs of it driving workers we need out of the country (tech mostly). We need to build rental apartments, we need lots of them, and we need to build them quickly. I'm very happy if large institutional buyers own them, or a large chunk of them, let them take the macro-economic risk.

OwlsZat

hmmm wrote: »

Brexit is now largely off the table as a risk.Builders are building only where there is demand. Banks are lending prudently.High hopes of a US/China trade deal. Markets are moving out of bonds into equities signalling optimism.

Not sure on your logic the for optimism

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-11-06/europe-warned-to-prepare-for-the-worst-as-imf-sees-clouds-darken?srnd=premium-europe