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Property Market 2019

The_Conductor

As is now becoming a custom- we'll start a new thread to discuss all topics as they pertain to the property market in general, alongside people's predictions and experiences- for the year 2019.

Its going to be an interesting year- with Brexit, if it comes to pass, at the end of March- and to misquote Donald Rumsfeld - the unknown unknowns that are likely to jump out at us, when we least expect them to.

2018 thread is now closed.

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Thargor

Starting to see some slippage in Bray now, setting a max value of 300k on Daft used to get you a couple of wrecks that had been for sale forever and not much else, now it shows some actual options, a couple of options in the 250k zone even which I am going to have to have a serious think about.

Dolbhad

ebayissues wrote: »

I'm trying to think what should one keep in mind in choosing a bank for mortgage? Obviously the mortgage rate percent, fixed vs floating , anything else?

I wanted to go with AIB or BOI as just from the news you don’t hear of them offloading to vulture funds as much as PTSB or Ulster Bank. However I’m going with Ulster Bank as they are giving me the most money so that really made the decision easy.

You should look at the cash back vs interest rate offers also.

A smart person will look at their mortgage every few years and switch anyway and that’s what I’d plan to do so I would be looking at the best interest rates after that.

aloooof

ebayissues wrote: »

I'm trying to think what should one keep in mind in choosing a bank for mortgage? Obviously the mortgage rate percent, fixed vs floating , anything else?

Cashback deals, as someone else has mentioned. Also if you can overpay might be another consideration. BOI, for example, allow you to overpay by 10% when on a Fixed rate (but as much as you like when on a variable). Length of term too; BOI gave us 34 years while EBS would only offer us 32.

Mad_maxx

Absolutely no signs of a drop in Limerick city, prices up 50% in the past three years, market is divided into many different sub sections

dor843088

Mad_maxx wrote: »

Absolutely no signs of a drop in Limerick city, prices up 50% in the past three years, market is divided into many different sub sections

Down 4 % in limerick city down 6 % in limerick overall according to myhome.ie in the last 3 months. What kind of sign do you need ?

riclad

I Think what will happen is prices will continue to fall in rural area,s ,
in 2020, experts say brexit will mostly effect rural area,s .
agriculture and industrys that depend on exports to the uk.
we may see a drop in tourist ,s from the uk .

Mad_maxx

dor843088 wrote: »

Down 4 % in limerick city down 6 % in limerick overall according to myhome.ie in the last 3 months. What kind of sign do you need ?

Is that you're only source?

Mic 1972

Mad_maxx wrote: »

Absolutely no signs of a drop in Limerick city, prices up 50% in the past three years, market is divided into many different sub sections

The last 3 years looks like a very wide time frame, prices are higher than 3 years ago everywhere on Ireland
IF you look at trends in the last few months you will see the decrease

Cyrus

are you looking at asking prices folks or achieved selling prices per PPR

q85dw7osi4lebg

Dolbhad wrote: »

I wanted to go with AIB or BOI as just from the news you don’t hear of them offloading to vulture funds as much as PTSB or Ulster Bank. However I’m going with Ulster Bank as they are giving me the most money so that really made the decision easy.

You should look at the cash back vs interest rate offers also.

A smart person will look at their mortgage every few years and switch anyway and that’s what I’d plan to do so I would be looking at the best interest rates after that.

https://www.independent.ie/business/irish/aib-sells-850m-of-bad-loans-38651282.html

Graham

Dolbhad wrote: »

I wanted to go with AIB or BOI as just from the news you don’t hear of them offloading to vulture funds as much as PTSB or Ulster Bank.

Done most banks use some for of bundling/securitisation for their long-term loans?

Or are you referring to the bundling and selling off of non-performing loans?

riclad

I read in the times newspaper ,after 2008, the banks sold property to
vulture funds, as there was no one in ireland who had the money or who wanted to buy 1000,s of apartments and house,s .maybe they could have sold some units to the local authority .
They have shareholders they have to get the best price they can in the market.
I think prices, started to fall in the last few months,
https://www.dublinlive.ie/news/dublin-news/property-dublin-houses-rent-price-17003426

i would not buy a house now, i,d wait for 6-9 months to see the effect of brexit on the economy.

Wanderer78

riclad wrote:

I read in the times newspaper ,after 2008, the banks sold property to vulture funds, as there was no one in ireland who had the money or who wanted to buy 1000,s of apartments and house,s .maybe they could have sold some units to the local authority . They have shareholders they have to get the best price they can in the market. I think prices, started to fall in the last few months,

The wealth created from such activities trickles down, so I certainly wouldn't worry about it

Mic 1972

Cyrus wrote: »

are you looking at asking prices folks or achieved selling prices per PPR

Asking prices are on the decrease according to official reports, which means selling prices are decreasing too

Cyrus

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Asking prices are on the decrease according to official reports, which means selling prices are decreasing too

not necessarily no.

Mad_maxx

Mic 1972 wrote: »

The last 3 years looks like a very wide time frame, prices are higher than 3 years ago everywhere on Ireland
IF you look at trends in the last few months you will see the decrease

No other city comes close to Limerick in terms of increase this past three years

Compak

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Asking prices are on the decrease according to official reports, which means selling prices are decreasing too

Depends where you look and type of house.

The two new estates near us have both increased the price of next release of houses from what they sold for for before the summer.

Nominal enough at ~1% but still that's €5000 which is not pocket change.

Bob24

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Asking prices are on the decrease according to official reports, which means selling prices are decreasing too

In the short to medium term, asking prices going one direction doesn’t automatically mean selling prices are going the same direction. It can also be things like sellers changing strategy. Of course if it becomes a consistent long term and pronounced trend, then yes there is a correlation.

I am not making a call either way in this particular case, but just pointing out this is an incorrect inference.

Mic 1972

if selling prices start to decrease then asking price will follow, this is the logic of every market

Cyrus

Mic 1972 wrote: »

if selling prices start to decrease then asking price will follow, this is the logic of every market

asking prices follow selling prices up and will be ahead of them, they will eventually outrun them but thats not to say achieved prices will fall by a significant amount in the short term.

Mic 1972

Cyrus wrote: »

asking prices follow selling prices up and will be ahead of them, they will eventually outrun them but thats not to say achieved prices will fall by a significant amount in the short term.

But if the asking prices have decreased that is evidence that the selling prices have decreased too
the sale agencies will quickly update the asking price as soon as sales start picking up again, clearly it hasn't happened

Cyrus

Mic 1972 wrote: »

But if the asking prices have decreased that is evidence that the selling prices have decreased too
the sale agencies will quickly update the asking price as soon as sales start picking up again, clearly it hasn't happened

the only evidence is from the PPR, everything else is speculation. Achieved sales prices are what you need to look at.

Mic 1972

what's your assumption here? Asking prices going up while asking prices are going down? not going to happen ;-)

Cyrus

Mic 1972 wrote: »

what's your assumption here? Asking prices going up while asking prices are going down? not going to happen ;-)

the only one making assumptions is you, as i said the only actual evidence is achieved selling prices.

Mic 1972

you didnt answer the question, what is the assumption you are making with this argument? it's unclear if you are assuming Asking prices are going up

Cyrus

Mic 1972 wrote: »

you didnt answer the question, what is the assumption you are making with this argument? it's unclear if you are assuming Asking prices are going up

there is nothing to answer, i am not assuming anything as i dont need to, there are hard facts available.

i said your assumption that falling asking prices meaning prices are decreasing may not be correct.

Mic 1972

Cyrus wrote: »

there is nothing to answer, i am not assuming anything as i dont need to, there are hard facts available.

i said your assumption that falling asking prices meaning prices are decreasing may not be correct.

Are there official reports on Selling Price? i couldn't find any I'd love to see them

duffman13

Mic 1972 wrote: »

you didnt answer the question, what is the assumption you are making with this argument? it's unclear if you are assuming Asking prices are going up

Your the only person assuming anything, your assuming lower asking prices are equal lower selling prices being achieved. You've no way of proving that, I see your logic, it's just not necessarily true

Cyrus

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Are there official reports on Selling Price? i couldn't find any I'd love to see them

All data you need is in the property price register

Brussels Sprout

Wanderer78 wrote: »

The wealth created from such activities trickles down, so I certainly wouldn't worry about it

Pretty sure the trickle down theory of economics was debunked as a scam for rich people to pay less tax a long time ago.