quokula wrote: » I don't understand why so many people have trouble with the concept of a second referendum. By definition a referendum has to have at least two options. The government would have to decide what those options are. One of them is clearly remain. I guess they could have no deal, or Boris Johnson's agreement as the second option, but if they rightly see both of those options as very damaging for the UK, why wouldn't they give a better second option? I can understand hardcore Brexiteers being opposed to Labour's plans as they take the most extreme options off the table, what I don't understand is so many remainers in the UK, or people here in Ireland who presumably want a return to a good relationship with the UK are so doggedly opposed to the idea.
Professor Moriarty wrote: » Brexiteers could make a strong argument that the decision to leave has been made. Following that logic, the only question to be asked in a second referendum is whether Britain leaves with Johnson's deal or No Deal.
Akrasia wrote: » Cause and effect, was Theresa May campaigning only in the marginal constituencies where her internal polling showed that they had lost support from the last election? Is part of this the reason why Corbyn did better than expected? Because she ignored what she thought were 'safe seats' and focused only on those she thought were most at risk
Professor Moriarty wrote: » Across the UK., since June 2016, demographics will have caused a 3% swing from Leave to Remain.
quokula wrote: » People's vote between Remain and Labour negotiated deal. Labour negotiated deal includes dropping the Tory red lines and staying in the customs union. It's pretty straightforward.
josip wrote: » Can someone please post what the 'literal' Labour policy is please? I (think I) know the policy of CP, LD, BP, SNP and even DUP. But I have no idea of what the LB policy is.
Sam Russell wrote: » If he looks at T. May's performance at electioneering in 2017, he will find that every constituency she campaigned in resulted in a loss for the Tories. She would have been better running through fields of corn.
quokula wrote: » The last time the Lib Dems held the balance of power, they shifted that balance to the Tories. And they've already explicitly ruled out working with Labour repeatedly. It's odd that you mention a second referendum as their "price" when that's literally already Labour policy, and not Lib Dem policy. And demanding that another party changes leader in order to work with them is not a negotiating stance, it's just pointless posturing.
quokula wrote: » I think they need to clarify that the renegotiation is not a "fantasy" - they're not asking the EU to compromise further, they're dropping the Tory red lines which are acts of self harm. Dropping them is beneficial to both the EU and UK.
Strazdas wrote: » I think she'll hold it. The only way she'll lose it is if the Lib Dems have a poor enough election. The party doing very well in a GE and she losing her seat would be rather odd (to put it mildly).
schmittel wrote: » With respect, I think that's nonsense. Let me put it another way. If every single would be Remainer Lib Dem voter votes Lib Dem rather than a tactical Labour vote, the worst possible outcome for Lib Dems is that they are third largest party in a hung parliament and they hold the balance of power. The only party they will support in Government is Labour and the price of that will be new leader and second referendum campaigning Remain. Job done as far they are concerned.
Kermit.de.frog wrote: » The tories have a deal with the EU. Unless the Brexit Party want to swing in behind there won't be any pacts. The Tories will simply say - "vote for us and we leave the EU within days" Brexit Party selling no deal. No contest really.
Joe_ Public wrote: » I agree with you here. I'd certainly advise him to simplify the message and remain vague as possible on it, just hammer the second referendum part of it relentlessly and forget the other bit that comes with it. It does seem a fair enough position to me and pretty clear by any standard, but if electorate wont buy it, then thats a problem. Has to deal with it or they'll struggle.
quokula wrote: » Yep, it's a no brainer to vote for Labour who have a credible chance of getting into government and are committed to having a second referendum between a soft brexit and remain. A vote for the Lib Dems is basically handing the keys to the Tories.
ancapailldorcha wrote: » Labour has bigger problems. Corbyn, in my opinion needs to drop any sort of fantasy about a renegotiation with Brussels and plump for a People's Vote. He'll never be Brexity enough for those who remain fully committed to leaving the EU so he might as well try and win over one camp who will otherwise defect to the Liberal Democrats.
prawnsambo wrote: » It's absolutely not. The point in voting LibDem is that there are constituencies (as I've shown above) where they have a better chance of taking a seat off the Tories than Labour do. In some cases, a far better chance. And although politically speakiing, you might be justified in calling them Tories (if you squint a bit), the purpose of this sort of tactical voting is (a) to keep the Tories out and (b) to stop brexit or at worst soften it. Blinkered party loyalty is pointless here.
jem wrote: » I realy hope Im wrong but my initial guess is that : SNP will clean up in Scotland but tory's hold a few seats. Lib dems gain votes but come back with around the same number as they have now. DUP lose 2 seats (I hope they lose more) Brexit Party gain 4/5 seats Labour lose seats Tory's gain seats due to split of remain voters and Brexit party taking votes from labour and tories slip up the middle. My guess is that while remain has 55% of the vote with FPP tories will have a majority of 40+ seats and we end up with a hard brexit
quokula wrote: » Pretty sure the SNP are going to sweep the board in Scotland regardless of what the other parties do.
A Dub in Glasgo wrote: » In Scotland, all 13 Tory seats had the SNP in second place in 2017. The Tories were second place in 8 seats, all won by the SNP. Do you think Labour and the Lib Dems are going to give way to ensure anti-Brexit MP wins? Not a chance, if anything the Tories, Lib Dems and Labour will be working out how they can unseat as many SNP as possible by working together
schmittel wrote: » To date no. But this election will be very different. It will essentially be a second referendum. If 50% of the population want to remain and under FPTP a party needs somewhere around 30% to gain a majority, or be largest party then simple mathematics suggest the party of remain - Lib Dems - should fancy their chances of doing very well. The Lib Dems have consistently been the party of remain, they campaigned in 2017 promising a second referendum, now their message is simply Revoke.If you are a UK voter who cares deeply about remaining in the EU, IMO it is a no brainer who to vote for, irrespective of party loyalties etc. If the Lib Dems end up being fourth largest party, smaller than SNPs as they are now, it will suggest either their campaign/message/leader is flawed or the support for strong remain is overstated within the electorate.
