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Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Quin_Dub

This is the eleventh incarnation of our Brexit discussion thread,

Same warnings etc still apply:

As we are approaching the critical end of March October 2019 period, please bear the following in mind before posting:
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ancapailldorcha

Now that we have a bit of a lull before yet another week laden with political developments, I think I'll lock this a little early. Thanks all.

New thread here:

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058025860

prunudo

Infini wrote: »

MEANWHILE.. in another thread the 12th incarnation is a coming!

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058025860

We about to hit yet ANOTHER new thread at this rate do we have to make a 13th to see an ends to this debacle in the Brits being at it again?

You can bet a 13th wouldn't be the last either, there'll still be threads discussing Brexit in 10 years. They may approve the WA but the notion of getting Brexit done is laughable. Passing the WA is probably the easiest part, every deal and negotiation after will be tough. Just it will be the senior civil servants rather the politicians who will be dealing with it.

Strazdas

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Only three more Christmases 'till Brexit :pac:

How about three more Rugby World Cups

Infini

MEANWHILE.. in another thread the 12th incarnation is a coming!

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058025860

We about to hit yet ANOTHER new thread at this rate do we have to make a 13th to see an ends to this debacle in the Brits being at it again?

Joe_ Public

prawnsambo wrote: »

The one above is Opimium, the one you're quoting is ComRes.

Stand corrected, thanks. I'm still not minded to pay much heed all the same. Even as a supposed current barometer at least one of those is well out. If i have to pick one to trust, then I'll pick neither.

prawnsambo

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Just a couple of days ago the same polling firm had labour actually ahead in the event the uk hadnt left by the oct deadline. So how much point is there reading anything worthwhile into any of them?

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1187399919604289538?s=20

The one above is Opimium, the one you're quoting is ComRes.

Fogmatic

I see Westminster visitors can buy a House of Commons Christmas jumper. The design's ok I suppose in a staid kind of way, but I couldn't help picturing a few updates to better reflect today's government (certain motifs that sprang to mind, flaws such as no head opening when it's too late to return it, etc).

Excuse the levity - it's a coping mechanism! After 3 years of disbelief at each twist in the Downing Street plot, it's getting hard to keep track of the latest cliffhangers. On the news, anyway. I find reading this thread (however sporadically) the best source of updates and the most balanced mix of viewpoints. The best descriptions in printed matter that I've come across of what Belfast's like despite the Good Friday Agreement, and the way the Brexit argument has been polarising the UK and inducing hate between its citizens, are both novels. (Perhaps because we can't interrupt a fictional character, sack them, or take their words out of context for a hate campaign).

I'm sure I can't say anything that hasn't been said here already, but couldn't resist a chance to sound off anyway (where I don't have to keep explaining why what happens to the Irish and EU borders matters).

My spouse and I are Brits with no Irish connections, and it was pure chance that we landed in Donegal. But it's enabled a wider view of Brexit implications than most of our mainland compatriots have been encouraged to (or permitted by the media, even).

I'm a Londoner, and most of our working lives was there. We've had Irish friends since the early 1970s, from a good cross-section of the island of Ireland. Those from both communities in the North left it because of the Troubles, the last straw often being a friend killed. One from Belfast who moved here about the same time as us was hard to engage in conversation at first, the habit of being careful what you say was so firmly ingrained (it took years to relax out of that wariness). Even we obvious outsiders have had the odd tense moment in the North (e.g. asking an innocent question in the wrong pub).

The border posts were still there when we moved here (and unavoidable on our only sensible route to the UK). We're near the border and get UK TV with NI local news, where the incidents reported had settled down to around one person shot/home damaged per day, but now seem to be getting more serious again. (Which are sectarian and which simply money-motivated (or a mixture) is hard to tell from the increasingly carefully worded bulletins, but either way the shortage of witnesses seems only natural).

We can also imagine the effects of Brexit on businesses all too well (and know a little about the possible effects on the economy generally). We were virtually always self-employed, and know how a seemingly small problem can make the difference between managing and going under (and have a domino effect on other businesses). Our own enterprises were very small (ranging from just one of us, to us and 4 full-time employees), but the principles are the same whatever the size.

Our personal question marks feel trivial, but have led to thinking about other Brexit ramifications. (Will we still manage financially? How often will we get to the UK to see family, when it's already only just do-able in one (very long) day each way? Will we be spending a big chunk of increasingly precious time dealing with the official paperwork of a big transition?).

Meanwhile, I care very much about my home country and was an instant remainer for that reason alone. For the same reason that when we were a builder in London I wouldn't have signed a contract to renovate for a fixed price a big house that we couldn't look at, and with the specs to be decided by the client at some point in the future. I was assuming at that point that I'd have a vote, as it was being described as for 'UK citizens', not 'UK citizens who happen to be living here at the moment' (yet another detail that most mainland UK people couldn't have been expected to be aware of).

The UK government petition website has been a voice of sorts, but the front page gave the impression that only UK residents could sign. It was only because of wanting to try with a relative's UK postcode that I got as far as seeing the long country drop-down list including Ireland, and then signed several against Brexit. (The wording seems to have been improved now; no way of telling if my email had anything to do with it!). Another annoyance was that every petition I went to had the identical prominent official statement just above the 'Sign' link, saying that the government would abide by the referendum result (making it sound as if the petition had already run its course and wasn't worth bothering with).

I don't understand the resistance to a 2nd referendum. (It's not as if voters would have to change tack publicly, or as if confirming their original vote would be such a great inconvenience). I'm sure more people would vote now they've had thinking time, and been informed somewhat of the implications (even of those for this island). In spite of most news media being quite parochial (even the Web seems to be getting less and less World Wide). I still think staying in the EU would be best for Britain's future, but if Leave won now I would at least feel that the people had been respected.

I'm keeping my fingers crossed, and hoping that by some miracle the people of influence will somehow decide that logical thinking about the fate of the nation should trump (sorry!) ephemeral party politics. I wish they could just have an amnesty, follow their hearts whichever way, and then land wherever that put them in the party political world.

I haven't yet needed an insurance green card (having only driven in the UK and Ireland), but got mine in February when renewal came up. I wanted to avoid any last-minute rush, as it's hard to predict my UK holidays, or having to go there. But it was largely because I hoped it would invoke Sod's Law and become unnecessary (I'm still hoping)!

I'm no monarchist, but think the Queen's continued resolve not to interfere with politics is quite heroic (especially as she can probably see the big picture better than anyone!).

Thanks for your patience, if you got this far!

Joe_ Public

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Tories with a 16-point lead, which would give them a larger majority than Blair in 1997:

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1188150296209436673

Con 425
Lab 145
SNP 35
Lib Dems 24
DUP 9
SF 7
Plaid 4
Green 2
Alliance 1
Sylvia Hermon 1

Just a couple of days ago the same polling firm had labour actually ahead in the event the uk hadnt left by the oct deadline. So how much point is there reading anything worthwhile into any of them?

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1187399919604289538?s=20

Edit: two different firms as pointed out below, just to correct the record.

bilston

I've asked it a lot but how on earth is Corbyn still leader of the Labour party? He is single handedly destroying them. It's almost as if he is a Tory agent.

FrancieBrady

prawnsambo wrote: »

Last poll I saw in NI showed them losing at least one seat and at worst three. The likely one was to Alliance.

Wait until an election is called and they go into the blame game and siege stuff. 'Their very existence'' will be under threat if themun's gain a vote'.
'Themuns' will become everyone else, including the UUP.

prawnsambo

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Tories with a 16-point lead, which would give them a larger majority than Blair in 1997:

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1188150296209436673

Con 425
Lab 145
SNP 35
Lib Dems 24
DUP 9
SF 7
Plaid 4
Green 2
Alliance 1
Sylvia Hermon 1

Just shows how FPTP can defy these polls. There's no way the SNP will end up with just 35 seats.

A Dub in Glasgo

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Tories with a 16-point lead, which would give them a larger majority than Blair in 1997:

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1188150296209436673

Con 425
Lab 145
SNP 35
Lib Dems 24
DUP 9
SF 7
Plaid 4
Green 2
Alliance 1
Sylvia Hermon 1

Quite depressing although I find it hard to belive those seat numbers

prawnsambo

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Not much drop in their vote I'd imagine until real Brexit sets in. They have already set in motion their finely honed 'unionism under siege' strategy which has rallied the support before for them.

Last poll I saw in NI showed them losing at least one seat and at worst three. The likely one was to Alliance.

dePeatrick

Infini wrote: »

Unfortunately for them their thinking and positions are relics of a past era and they're finding out being stupid and putting flegs and ideology before the common interest doesnt get them what they want, it gets them nothing and made examples of why the opinions of ididots should be ignored and ridiculed.

They didn't think about how the position they were taking would backfire on them so spetacularly, by pushing and jumping into the leave camp not only have they drawn attention to themselves which ultimately got abortion and SSM legalised in the last week but also they went and reactivated the Irish Question which had they just left things well enough alone would not be something that could be decided in the next decade or less and not 40 odd years from now. They literally brought forward the chance of a border poll by decades with their shenanigans.

What they also failed in all this is they screwed the buisness and the farming communities in all of this and who did they go to when they had to decide all this, not their buisness or farming supporters but their loyalist "terrorist" friends who like "IRA" are nothing more than glorified criminal outfits today, relics of a past era unfit for modern times.

They shít the bed and now the can lie in it, get nothing and like it and be ridiculed and ultimately be sidelined by the people of NI they're unfit for any sort of goverment and should be sidelined and mocked as such for human stupidity is the cancer of this existence and they're the prime example of why the opinions of idiots should not be listened to.

Also have exposed their 17th century thinking to the politicians, media and public in the UK as well as here...Some legacy!

CelticRambler

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Tories with a 16-point lead, which would give them a larger majority than Blair in 1997:

Not if it doesn't translate into an equivalent majority of seats in the HoC, and seeing as FPTP is completely unsuited to a four-way contest, non-specific polling in this (next) election is pretty pointless.

An Ciarraioch

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Not much drop in their vote I'd imagine until real Brexit sets in. They have already set in motion their finely honed 'unionism under siege' strategy which has rallied the support before for them.

Although Steve Aiken has already pledged that the UUP will contest all 18 NI constituencies, which could leave the DUP vulnerable in N, S and E Belfast, as well as South Antrim.

FrancieBrady

pixelburp wrote: »

Thing is with the DUP, beyond the ink spent decrying their short sightedness, has there been any sense of this reflecting in polls? Last set of stats I saw didn't show any sign of a weakening of the DUPs support, while the local elections hardly signalled a wipeout either IIRC. If there is to be a December election, I'm not convinced they'll be punished for their presumptuous hubris, not in constituencies so heavily segregated and institutionalised.

Not much drop in their vote I'd imagine until real Brexit sets in. They have already set in motion their finely honed 'unionism under siege' strategy which has rallied the support before for them.

An Ciarraioch

Tories with a 16-point lead, which would give them a larger majority than Blair in 1997:

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1188150296209436673

Con 425
Lab 145
SNP 35
Lib Dems 24
DUP 9
SF 7
Plaid 4
Green 2
Alliance 1
Sylvia Hermon 1

pixelburp

Thing is with the DUP, beyond the ink spent decrying their short sightedness, has there been any sense of this reflecting in polls? Last set of stats I saw didn't show any sign of a weakening of the DUPs support, while the local elections hardly signalled a wipeout either IIRC. If there is to be a December election, I'm not convinced they'll be punished for their presumptuous hubris, not in constituencies so heavily segregated and institutionalised.

Infini

prawnsambo wrote: »

You forget that the DUP have always hated the GFA. Voting for brexit was for them a free shot at breaking it. Doesn't matter if it loses, they can carry on as before. When it passed, they thought it was happy days and the death of the hated GFA. They never foresaw (did any brexiter?) that the Irish position and the GFA would find support from the rest of the EU. They believed the propaganda that the UK would get the easiest deal in history and the power of the UK would completely obliterate little Ireland.

Unfortunately for them their thinking and positions are relics of a past era and they're finding out being stupid and putting flegs and ideology before the common interest doesnt get them what they want, it gets them nothing and made examples of why the opinions of ididots should be ignored and ridiculed.

They didn't think about how the position they were taking would backfire on them so spetacularly, by pushing and jumping into the leave camp not only have they drawn attention to themselves which ultimately got abortion and SSM legalised in the last week but also they went and reactivated the Irish Question which had they just left things well enough alone would not be something that could be decided in the next decade or less and not 40 odd years from now. They literally brought forward the chance of a border poll by decades with their shenanigans.

What they also failed in all this is they screwed the buisness and the farming communities in all of this and who did they go to when they had to decide all this, not their buisness or farming supporters but their loyalist "terrorist" friends who like "IRA" are nothing more than glorified criminal outfits today, relics of a past era unfit for modern times.

They shít the bed and now the can lie in it, get nothing and like it and be ridiculed and ultimately be sidelined by the people of NI they're unfit for any sort of goverment and should be sidelined and mocked as such for human stupidity is the cancer of this existence and they're the prime example of why the opinions of idiots should not be listened to.

prawnsambo

reslfj wrote: »

The only "all UK solution" possible is revoking A50 before Brexit day.

The DUP and their voters should have realised this before they in 2016 voted "Leave".

Both the UK and Ireland in the EU and the GFA gives peace now, but it has also removed a lot of tensions in NI and improved the economy in NI.

Fewer problems on the island of Ireland will surely delay a UI - maybe even for more decades - and keep the NI a part of the UK.

Isn't this the DUP's stated goal?
Why did they not think? Why do they not think today?

Lars

You forget that the DUP have always hated the GFA. Voting for brexit was for them a free shot at breaking it. Doesn't matter if it loses, they can carry on as before. When it passed, they thought it was happy days and the death of the hated GFA. They never foresaw (did any brexiter?) that the Irish position and the GFA would find support from the rest of the EU. They believed the propaganda that the UK would get the easiest deal in history and the power of the UK would completely obliterate little Ireland.

briany

Enzokk wrote: »

In answer to both, Johnson will blather his way around it, but how does Tory MP from [Enter constituency here] respond when being interviewed and asked the question on why people should vote for him when he doesn't trust Johnson to run the government?

Well, almost nobody's going to really ask that question because they can see the context of why a vote of no-confidence was called, i.e. it was merely a tactical move to get around the Fixed-term Parliament act. It would, in fact, be a fairly cynical question to ask, as it would obviously be a VONC in name only.

Enzokk

briany wrote: »

Very easy. Even Johnson could manage that one. He can just say that he was trying to get around the Fixed Term Parliament act. Nobody apart from those who haven't been following Brexit at all would genuinely think that the UK government had no confidence in itself.

Deleted User wrote: »

He likely doesn't need to unfortunately. It will be soon forgotten about and/or spun into something else among a wave of distraction and whataboutery.

Lots has happened so far in this fiasco to beg the question 'How will Tory voters go for this in the next election?' but each member of their voting base will have their own rationale for supporting the bus driver who steers them off a cliff. Facts don't really matter to them at this stage.

Sense has long gone out the window, if it was ever present, and the divide is growing deeper the longer this goes on. A government VONC in itself will be used to show the desperate ends which the Tories had to go to in order to 'Get Brexit Done' for the people.

In answer to both, Johnson will blather his way around it, but how does Tory MP from [Enter constituency here] respond when being interviewed and asked the question on why people should vote for him when he doesn't trust Johnson to run the government?

I feel that the Tories could run into trouble that the likes of Kuenssberg and Peston has been called out for their coverage and should feel professional shame about being used. This could mean a tougher stance towards those that put them in that position. I am off course most likely wrong though and in the UK not being confident in yourself as a government will actually lead to voters being confident in you.

Joe_ Public wrote: »

All correct i think. If johnson did take that course, and impossible to rule anything out as we all know, then labour hasnt much choice you'd think but to row behind it and make what capital they can from it. Then into that 14 day no man's land period where a lot or possibly nothing could happen. Seem to be compelling reasons to me for labour not to want GE this side of xmas, but stringing it out till the spring could backfire too. No easy choices at present.

You are right that there are only tough choices for Labour. If you don't really care what happens with Brexit or want to crash out the path is simple, but if you have any sense and want to limit the damage then it is more complicated.

The important thing for Labour will be to try and get the Brexit Party to take Tory votes and the only way to do this is to have Johnson break as many promises as possible. An extension is a must in this case and one to 31st January that Johnson requested would be ideal. Even then it may not be enough as Cummings is good at muddying the water and the line between truth and lies is so blurred right now.

prunudo

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Interesting that FG have built an eight-point lead over FF - presumably a Brexit bounce after the deal?

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1188123633224425473

Not sure when the survey was taken but could also be a knock on effect from the voting scandal. Some voters who would considering voting ff but now afraid they're back to their old ways.

reslfj

Strazdas wrote: »

She said the DUP will continue to vote down the deal and could only support it if Johnson comes up with some all UK solution.

The only "all UK solution" possible is revoking A50 before Brexit day.

The DUP and their voters should have realised this before they in 2016 voted "Leave".

Both the UK and Ireland in the EU and the GFA gives peace now, but it has also removed a lot of tensions in NI and improved the economy in NI.

Fewer problems on the island of Ireland will surely delay a UI - maybe even for more decades - and keep the NI a part of the UK.

Isn't this the DUP's stated goal?
Why did they not think? Why do they not think today?

Lars

Joe_ Public

Enzokk wrote: »

Labour will not vote for a election under the FTPA, but I think they should jump if the government calls a VONC in itself and their MPs vote for it. How do you try and explain that to the voters if you are Johnson? I am the man to run the country, when I just voted against myself running the country...good luck with that message.

All correct i think. If johnson did take that course, and impossible to rule anything out as we all know, then labour hasnt much choice you'd think but to row behind it and make what capital they can from it. Then into that 14 day no man's land period where a lot or possibly nothing could happen. Seem to be compelling reasons to me for labour not to want GE this side of xmas, but stringing it out till the spring could backfire too. No easy choices at present.

An Ciarraioch

Interesting that FG have built an eight-point lead over FF - presumably a Brexit bounce after the deal?

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1188123633224425473

[Deleted User]

Enzokk wrote: »

Labour will not vote for a election under the FTPA, but I think they should jump if the government calls a VONC in itself and their MPs vote for it. How do you try and explain that to the voters if you are Johnson? I am the man to run the country, when I just voted against myself running the country...good luck with that message.

He likely doesn't need to unfortunately. It will be soon forgotten about and/or spun into something else among a wave of distraction and whataboutery.

Lots has happened so far in this fiasco to beg the question 'How will Tory voters go for this in the next election?' but each member of their voting base will have their own rationale for supporting the bus driver who steers them off a cliff. Facts don't really matter to them at this stage.

Sense has long gone out the window, if it was ever present, and the divide is growing deeper the longer this goes on. A government VONC in itself will be used to show the desperate ends which the Tories had to go to in order to 'Get Brexit Done' for the people.

briany

Enzokk wrote: »

Labour will not vote for a election under the FTPA, but I think they should jump if the government calls a VONC in itself and their MPs vote for it. How do you try and explain that to the voters if you are Johnson? I am the man to run the country, when I just voted against myself running the country...good luck with that message.

Very easy. Even Johnson could manage that one. He can just say that he was trying to get around the Fixed Term Parliament act. Nobody apart from those who haven't been following Brexit at all would genuinely think that the UK government had no confidence in itself.

Enzokk

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Interesting that the dup now saying it will get behind election which might give johnson some hope. The gov can of course call vonc in itself but that is very odd, nuclear option and wouldnt be there yet, if ever. Dont think theres much chance of johnson winning a vote on monday as long as EU hasnt cleared up the confusion surrounding an extension.

Labour will not vote for a election under the FTPA, but I think they should jump if the government calls a VONC in itself and their MPs vote for it. How do you try and explain that to the voters if you are Johnson? I am the man to run the country, when I just voted against myself running the country...good luck with that message.