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Another recession?

Away With The Fairies

Are we due another recession? The last one and I don't think we fully recovered. Big cities are ok but certainly in small towns and villages and they haven't recovered.

The last one, there were so much job losses. There was something every day. 500 jobs yesterday and 320 job losses reported in the news. Is this the start of another recession?

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Mr. teddywinkles

Still waters wrote: »

So you reckon spending a tenner a day on shop bought food is the catalyst for the next recession, i spent 6 euro in my local shop today doing just that, coffee and a small roll, its great to support local businesses rather than doing a big shop in a German owned supermarket once a week

I know lads spend at least a a fiver a break with 2 breaks everyday. That's 50 a week min. Yea it doesn't cause a recession but it shows up frivolous spending habits

gifted

Still waters wrote: »

So you reckon spending a tenner a day on shop bought food is the catalyst for the next recession, i spent 6 euro in my local shop today doing just that, coffee and a small roll, its great to support local businesses rather than doing a big shop in a German owned supermarket once a week

Coffee and a small roll???.....grow a pair man....big roll at morning break with a bar of chocolate and a coke....same again at big break.....construction workers tend to work it off due to the physical nature of their work....now that usually works out around 20 a day multiply by 5 days is a €100 ....so approx 5K a year give or take

Now if you even bothered to read my post you will notice that I mentioned nothing about a catalyst for the next recession or German owned supermarkets....I gave my experience of it and my humble opinion.....thanks to Boards I'm able to do that, you don't like my opinion then move on instead of becoming a drama queen .

topper75

Landen Plain Leader wrote: »

This is a lie.

It is. But it is not the wildest one ever thrown up here:

Q4 2018 0.2%
Q1 2019 0.4%
Q2 2019 0.2%

I'm not betting on Q3 busting 0.5%.

Still waters

gifted wrote: »

Now if you even bothered to read my post you will notice that I mentioned nothing about a catalyst for the next recession or German owned supermarkets....I gave my experience of it and my humble opinion.....thanks to Boards I'm able to do that, you don't like my opinion then move on instead of becoming a drama queen .

And thanks to boards, i can see you're opinion for what it is and counter with my own

_Brian

Many areas never recovered fully from the last recession and so have much less to loose.
Land near me was making €40,000 an acre pre the last bust and nothing like that is happening. Nobody is buying houses to let them out because letting is a mugs game. I’d say new car sales in most areas is nothing like it was in ‘06/07. I’ve not heard of folk buying apartments in Turkey or Bulgaria yet never mind two just because they are a snip.

Saying a recession is coming is like saying it will snow, of course a recession will come but when ??

A few jobs lost in shaky American subsidiaries is hardly a sure sign.

I’m really not seeing signs of overheating economy that proceeds recessions.

pawdee

I reckon the weather will take a turn for the worse too. There'll be another famine and an outbreak of bubonic plague. It's going to be bad.

NSAman

pawdee wrote: »

I reckon the weather will take a turn for the worse too. There'll be another famine and an outbreak of bubonic plague. It's going to be bad.

Don't laugh, it may well start in the 5th Largest economy on the planet and not in the usual places.

Edgware

Recession means increased emigration from one horse towns resulting in a decrease in the level of inbreeding. Every cloud etc

hurler32

_Brian wrote: »

Many areas never recovered fully from the last recession and so have much less to loose.
Land near me was making €40,000 an acre pre the last bust and nothing like that is happening. Nobody is buying houses to let them out because letting is a mugs game. I’d say new car sales in most areas is nothing like it was in ‘06/07. I’ve not heard of folk buying apartments in Turkey or Bulgaria yet never mind two just because they are a snip.

Saying a recession is coming is like saying it will snow, of course a recession will come but when ??

A few jobs lost in shaky American subsidiaries is hardly a sure sign.

I’m really not seeing signs of overheating economy that proceeds recessions.

Dublin is booming and the Fine Gael government don’t care about anywhere else so rural Ireland doesn’t count in this conversation

Mad_maxx

_Brian wrote: »

Many areas never recovered fully from the last recession and so have much less to loose.
Land near me was making €40,000 an acre pre the last bust and nothing like that is happening. Nobody is buying houses to let them out because letting is a mugs game. I’d say new car sales in most areas is nothing like it was in ‘06/07. I’ve not heard of folk buying apartments in Turkey or Bulgaria yet never mind two just because they are a snip.

Saying a recession is coming is like saying it will snow, of course a recession will come but when ??

A few jobs lost in shaky American subsidiaries is hardly a sure sign.

I’m really not seeing signs of overheating economy that proceeds recessions.

Relative to how most economies have performed since the 2008 crash, Ireland's has done phenomenally well, that rural parts never saw the days of the construction bubble again doesn't change this

The 40k per acre for land was 1980,s japanese asset bubble territory, an anomaly

Mad_maxx

hurler32 wrote: »

Dublin is booming and the Fine Gael government don’t care about anywhere else so rural Ireland doesn’t count in this conversation

All of the cities are booming

CalamariFritti

There will be one soon I think. Brexit hard or not will see to that. Brexit will also see prices rise, again hard or not won't matter. It'll be like when the Euro was introduced. Everyone will use it as an excuse for a price hike whether justified or not.

SEPT 23 1989

Independent papers printing works in Citywest closure announced

enricoh

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

You’re making things up now.

If you can find that link that backs up your earlier statement, that would be great.

I’d say we’ll be waiting a long time for it.

Sure thing dougal, sure if I'm not making it up maybe the head of intel is!

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/ireland-less-alluring-for-intel-20-years-on-1.779522?mode=amp
Fast forward another decade, and we had Grove’s successor, former Intel boss Craig Barrett, suggesting much the same at the diaspora gig at Farmleigh. He pointed out that, of the list of reasons why Intel had come to Ireland in 1989, only one – the tax benefits – still held true.

whisky_galore

Mad_maxx wrote: »

All of the cities are booming

They will choke on their own success if workers can't find somewhere to live affordably and have to endure unreasonable commutes.

Edgware

SEPT 23 1989 wrote: »

Independent papers printing works in Citywest closure announced

Who buys that rag anyway?

Still waters

Edgware wrote: »

Who buys that rag anyway?

No one, that's why they're closing

NoteAgent

SEPT 23 1989 wrote: »

Independent papers printing works in Citywest closure announced

Irrelevant. The newspapers business has been slowing down for at least the last 10 years.

The ecomomy could go into overdrive and newspapers businesses would still go bankrupt.

NoteAgent

_Brian wrote: »

Many areas never recovered fully from the last recession and so have much less to loose.
Land near me was making €40,000 an acre pre the last bust and nothing like that is happening. Nobody is buying houses to let them out because letting is a mugs game. I’d say new car sales in most areas is nothing like it was in ‘06/07. I’ve not heard of folk buying apartments in Turkey or Bulgaria yet never mind two just because they are a snip.

Saying a recession is coming is like saying it will snow, of course a recession will come but when ??

A few jobs lost in shaky American subsidiaries is hardly a sure sign.

I’m really not seeing signs of overheating economy that proceeds recessions.

Youre assuming all that behaviour was normal. It wasnt. All those assets were purchased using Credit.
The car sales now IS the new norm. The average Joe Soap should not be able to to afford 2 holidays and a new car every year.

RedParrot

_Brian wrote: »

Many areas never recovered fully from the last recession and so have much less to loose.
Land near me was making €40,000 an acre pre the last bust and nothing like that is happening. Nobody is buying houses to let them out because letting is a mugs game. I’d say new car sales in most areas is nothing like it was in ‘06/07. I’ve not heard of folk buying apartments in Turkey or Bulgaria yet never mind two just because they are a snip.

Saying a recession is coming is like saying it will snow, of course a recession will come but when ??

A few jobs lost in shaky American subsidiaries is hardly a sure sign.

I’m really not seeing signs of overheating economy that proceeds recessions.

There's definitely something happening over in America. We won't see it straight away. Maybe another month or two or maybe even three.

We have brexit to the other side of us.

We will get caught up in between.

beejee

Time to hit the reset button and reframe the country as a benefit to us all, and not to foreign interests little and large.

You know, a country. Remember that?

NoteAgent

A recession next year would be totally normal and nothing to worry about relatively speaking.

We've had an 11 year Bull Market so we are due a recession (historically recessions should occur every 7 years or so in a functioning economy).

Id be more worried if we didnt have a recession. It would mean we are kicking the can down the road and the landing could be much harder the longer we put it off.

NoteAgent

beejee wrote: »

Time to hit the reset button and reframe the country as a benefit to us all, and not to foreign interests little and large.

You know, a country. Remember that?

Oh yeah. Like Ireland in the 60's. 20% unemployment, soup kitchens, very high infant mortality rate, very low level going on to 3rd level education, mass poverty

youtube!

Oh it's definitely coming and soon, I work in the building game as do lots of my buddies, for a start everybody has noticed that the houses and apartments that are for sale are being bought by the council and not the private buyers so much, in effect if it wasn't for the council we would be out of work right now but the question is how long can we depend on the council to keep buying them? It's not a sustainable model really is it?

So all the sites have slowed to an absolute crawl and although none of us have been let go yet it is coming soon, fact is I see about 2 months work and that is it, new sites are in the pipeline but they are not coming out of the ground they are just sites with planning and very cautious builders who won't move on them, so with that in mind we are left with the existing sites which are winding down rapidly. Pretty gloomy outlook.

beejee

NoteAgent wrote: »

A recession next year would be totally normal and nothing to worry about relatively speaking.

We've had an 11 year Bull Market so we are due a recession (historically recessions should occur every 7 years or so in a functioning economy).

Id be more worried if we didnt have a recession. It would mean we are kicking the can down the road and the landing could be much harder the longer we put it off.

While it's a current narrative that recessions and booms on this scale are normal, I really don't buy it anymore.

Each dip on the roller coaster is deeper than the last and it's due to come off the rails.

The next recession, possibly, is the big kahuna that may last a very, very long time. No financial escape plans next time. All the quick-fire and bandages have been used already just to keep the zombie going.

You can see the warning signs left right and center, dot.com bubble 2.0 with tech companies losing outrageous money every second of the day, increasing geopolitical tension, growing immigration/growing anti-immigration by the day, inequality at all time high, brexit, the breakdown of the United States internally, the rise of a totalitarian China, rapidly disappearing employment stability and quality, housing and family life severely curtailed by rapid cost of living, poverty increasing...

And these things are presenting during the so-called good times?

Baby, we ain't seen nothing yet

beejee

NoteAgent wrote: »

Oh yeah. Like Ireland in the 60's. 20% unemployment, soup kitchens, very high infant mortality rate, very low level going on to 3rd level education, mass poverty

How specific!

My general view is that we were on the right track all the way to the 2000's.

Were the 70's better than the 60's? Were the 80's better than the 70's? And so on. A lot to factor in, but it's very easy to say the country has been on an upward projection until it got into the "boom/bust" nonsense of the 2000's.

And I'd argue that besides the few lucky ones that made out like bandits, we are largely on a decline since the 2000's. It might look a bit shinier, but the reality beneath is anything but.

enricoh

youtube! wrote: »

Oh it's definitely coming and soon, I work in the building game as do lots of my buddies, for a start everybody has noticed that the houses and apartments that are for sale are being bought by the council and not the private buyers so much, in effect if it wasn't for the council we would be out of work right now but the question is how long can we depend on the council to keep buying them? It's not a sustainable model really is it?

So all the sites have slowed to an absolute crawl and although none of us have been let go yet it is coming soon, fact is I see about 2 months work and that is it, new sites are in the pipeline but they are not coming out of the ground they are just sites with planning and very cautious builders who won't move on them, so with that in mind we are left with the existing sites which are winding down rapidly. Pretty gloomy outlook.

An estate agent i know said the same, take the councils n all the housing/ homeless charities out of the sales n there is nothing doing.
Utterly unsustainable.
I know a few lads after starting apprenticeships, two of em with kids, etc i hope they get them finished.

NoteAgent

beejee wrote: »

How specific!

My general view is that we were on the right track all the way to the 2000's.

Were the 70's better than the 60's? Were the 80's better than the 70's? And so on. A lot to factor in, but it's very easy to say the country has been on an upward projection until it got into the "boom/bust" nonsense of the 2000's.

And I'd argue that besides the few lucky ones that made out like bandits, we are largely on a decline since the 2000's. It might look a bit shinier, but the reality beneath is anything but.

That's fair enough but I'm not sure I agree with your last post about "foreign interests". If not for the likes of Intel, Google, etc in Ireland, I shudder thinking about what state the Irish economy would be in right now.

If closing off a country to open trade worked well then North Korea and Venezuela should be Economic Superpowers......but they're not.

beejee

RedParrot wrote: »

There's definitely something happening over in America. We won't see it straight away. Maybe another month or two or maybe even three.

We have brexit to the other side of us.

We will get caught up in between.

It's in the post alright. But I'm betting that it will pivot around the next presidential election in the United States.

So another year or thereabouts.

I expect complete disasters to unfold in the meantime, but the American administration will throw everything and the kitchen sink at it to stave it off.

Around that election, +/- a couple months, it'll be game time. I'd enjoy this Christmas as much as possible!

BDI

youtube! wrote: »

Oh it's definitely coming and soon, I work in the building game as do lots of my buddies, for a start everybody has noticed that the houses and apartments that are for sale are being bought by the council and not the private buyers so much, in effect if it wasn't for the council we would be out of work right now but the question is how long can we depend on the council to keep buying them? It's not a sustainable model really is it?

So all the sites have slowed to an absolute crawl and although none of us have been let go yet it is coming soon, fact is I see about 2 months work and that is it, new sites are in the pipeline but they are not coming out of the ground they are just sites with planning and very cautious builders who won't move on them, so with that in mind we are left with the existing sites which are winding down rapidly. Pretty gloomy outlook.

Absolute nonsense. The economy isn’t based on houses. Hotels and office blocks. Factories and shops. The city centre is turning into a workplace with lunch outlets rather than a shopping place with lunch outlets.
Housing estates will turn to high rise city apartments. There’s years to go yet.