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Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Quin_Dub

This is the eleventh incarnation of our Brexit discussion thread,

Same warnings etc still apply:

As we are approaching the critical end of March October 2019 period, please bear the following in mind before posting:
Insults directed at popular figures are not acceptable in this forum
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LeinsterDub

prawnsambo wrote: »

No, but it's become clear that the current so-called constitution is a bit of a misnomer. There is no rule set down in law that can't be ignored by any government with the numbers in parliament to do that. Literally anything can be done in that scenario since there is no higher law that prevents that.

That's what Parliament is sovereign means.

I'll write down the UK's constitution for you now

Section 1
Parliament is sovereign
Section 2
Refer to section 1

ancapailldorcha

prawnsambo wrote: »

No, but it's become clear that the current so-called constitution is a bit of a misnomer. There is no rule set down in law that can't be ignored by any government with the numbers in parliament to do that. Literally anything can be done in that scenario since there is no higher law that prevents that.

It isn't. The UK constitution is a series of Acts passed by Parliament. What you are referring to is a codified constitution. Parliament is effectively an elected, 650-person dictatorship.

prawnsambo

LeinsterDub wrote: »

That's what Parliament is sovereign means.

I'll write down the UK's constitution for you now

Section 1
Parliament is sovereign
Section 2
Refer to section 1

Yes. I know. I think I prefer Ancapailldorcha's definition better though..

Sam Russell

I think there is a negative bias in the UK towards the EU.

For example:

1. UK: FoM means 'they' can come over 'here' (UK) and take our jobs and clog up the NHS while claiming benefits. Mind you, Spain is a super cheap place to retire, but the locals speak Spanish there, but there are loads of Brits so you do not have to learn it.
Rest of EU: 'We' can go over 'there'. FoM means we can travel to other parts of the EU, learn a new language and culture, and maybe settle a while.

2: UK: EU regulations are the EU trying to control us, and do daft things like prevent us enjoying our milk chocolate-flavoured confections.
RofEU: EU Regulations mean that we can trust labels to tel the truth, and that products are safe for us to use or consume. More regulations are safer.

3: UK: We pay too much into the EU.
RofEU: We pay into the EU so that poorer regions can get out of poverty, and, besides, we get back better results and at less cost than if we had to do ourselves all the things EU does by combined effort of the many EU institutions.

Plus many more.

The UK are just not team players at the international level. They think they have a 'special' relationship with the USA, but the real 'special' relationship that the USA has is with Ireland, and possibly Israel. The UK is considered quaint by most Americans. I have never heard an American claim to be UK-American or even British-American.

Varta

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Having lived here for nearly a decade, I don't think there is anything to this. The anti-EU papers have been purveying their poison unchallenged for decades now. That and the economic downturn many have experienced have made for the perfect recipe for the Leave vote.

Only if the constitution had provisions to this end.

It would be a mistake to assume that leavers only read the anti-EU papers. And I disagree with you when it comes to the colonial attitude. It is still prevalent among many British people and when not immediately visible, it is rarely far below the surface.

LuckyLloyd

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

This is from August:

From LBC:

https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/remain-55-45-second-referendum-brexit-poll/

Prorogation won't have hurt Remain's odds.

This is more recent:

Source.

Remain loses a rerun on those numbers imo. Leave campaign will be simpler, more emotional and better able to trumpet nonsense about freedom and sovereignty and whatever else.

SeaBreezes

SeaBreezes wrote: »

##Mod Snip##

Please don't link dump

Explain the link , give your opinion on it etc. Don't just drop it in the thread.

Thanks

Sorry, thought I had...

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=OtkP3Hkc1cM

Explain: Jason Hunter talks Brexit, including what leaving on WTO rules would mean.

Opinion: Jason is an international trade negotiator so he knows what he's talking about, and for Brexit it's pretty gloomy.
He presents it very well.

My opinion: it's the reason hard Brexit will never be an option for the UK.

ancapailldorcha

Varta wrote: »

It would be a mistake to assume that leavers only read the anti-EU papers. And I disagree with you when it comes to the colonial attitude. It is still prevalent among many British people and when not immediately visible, it is rarely far below the surface.

Can you provide a link to show that the leave vote was driven in any significant part by this colonial attitude you allude to?

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Remain loses a rerun on those numbers imo. Leave campaign will be simpler, more emotional and better able to trumpet nonsense about freedom and sovereignty and whatever else.

Doesn't mean it will be either as effective as in 2016 or more so. Many people in this country have already made their choice and few, if any of them will be for turning. It's the ones who don't spend much time engaging with politics that will be deciding and they've seen only farce and weakness in the last few years. I don't know how much use polls are as we'll have remain and leave campaigns again which will make an impact but the upbeat unicorns employed by Vote Leave in 2016 are dead.

LuckyLloyd

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Can you provide a link to show that the leave vote was driven in any significant part by this colonial attitude you allude to?

Doesn't mean it will be more effective. Many people in this country have already made their choice and few, if any of them will be for turning. It's the ones who don't spend much time engaging with politics that will be deciding and they've seen only farce and weakness in the last few years. I don't know how much use polls are as we'll have remain and leave campaigns again which will make an impact but the upbeat unicorns employed by Vote Leave in 2016 are dead.

3 of 5 of the polls shown indicate significant numbers of don’t knows, so we’ll have a campaign. The upbeat unicorns are still trotted out in the press and on shows like QT, etc and remain counter arguments are shouted down with force. Still, after all that has gone on. Now you will add to that emotional stuff about democracy denied; people vs parliament; EU bullies. I’m not seeing it.

You would need polling averages in the high 50’s imo, and you don’t have it.

Letwin_Larry

Strazdas wrote: »

Apparently, many of the Leave voting OAPs are well off, middle class pensioners in the south of England with three bedroom houses and two cars in the driveway.

It would be fascinating to discover how this demographic acquired such a hatred of the EU.

Daily Mail, or The Telegraph would be my guess. Such bias is often passed from one generation to the next, so possibly it's a hangover from WW2, the blitz etc.

My ex-manager who if still alive would certainly fit the bill.
A nice man, but his dislike of foreigners was something to witness. Wasn't unlike a Little Britain sketch when I recall some of his comments.

prawnsambo

Varta wrote: »

It would be a mistake to assume that leavers only read the anti-EU papers. And I disagree with you when it comes to the colonial attitude. It is still prevalent among many British people and when not immediately visible, it is rarely far below the surface.

I'm struggling to think of any pro-EU newspapers other than the Guardian/Observer and Independent. On the other side are the Times, Telegraph, Mail, Sun, Star, Mirror, Express and nearly all of those have a much higher circulation individually than the others combined. The Sun has almost four times the circulation of the 'pro-EU' papers.

ancapailldorcha

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

3 of 5 of the polls shown indicate significant numbers of don’t knows, so we’ll have a campaign. The upbeat unicorns are still trotted out in the press and on shows like QT, etc and remain counter arguments are shouted down with force. Still, after all that has gone on. Now you will add to that emotional stuff about democracy denied; people vs parliament; EU bullies. I’m not seeing it.

You would need polling averages in the high 50’s imo, and you don’t have it.

They will be trotted out but they'll be damp squibs this time. Nobody is even pretending that Brexit will provide economic benefits anymore. All people see now are lies, corruption and incompetence. I could be wrong of course. QT audiences I have no respect for. They clap for virtually everything and seem to consist of people who turn up simply to moan on TV.

Either way, a People's Vote sorts this. Either the UK will leave knowing all the facts or it stays and ends this whole pointless and expensive charade.

Varta

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Can you provide a link to show that the leave vote was driven in any significant part by this colonial attitude you allude to?

Smart ar&e reply, but you know very well that not every possible reason has been researched and therefore not every possible reason can be demonstrated by research. It doesn't mean that those reasons don't exist. You seem to hold a very pro British attitude. Fine. I see them as an ex colonial power that has yet to come to terms with its loss of empire and I believe that played a significant part in the decision to brexit. I also believe that they are making a terrible mistake in leaving the EU, however, it was their decision to make and now I would like them to go as soon as possible and cease interfering in the day-to-day business of the EU.

ancapailldorcha

Varta wrote: »

Smart ar&e reply, but you know very well that not every possible reason has been researched and therefore not every possible reason can be demonstrated by research. It doesn't mean that those reasons don't exist. You seem to hold a very pro British attitude. Fine. I see them as an ex colonial power that has yet to come to terms with its loss of empire and I believe that played a significant part in the decision to brexit. I also believe that they are making a terrible mistake in leaving the EU, however, it was their decision to make and now I would like them to go as soon as possible and cease interfering in the day-to-day business of the EU.

You have a baseless claim based on a lazy stereotype and now you are moving the goalposts. I never claimed that this attitude does not exist, I simply asked for evidence that it played a significant role in returning a leave vote.

Joe_ Public

prawnsambo wrote: »

I'm struggling to think of any pro-EU newspapers other than the Guardian/Observer and Independent. On the other side are the Times, Telegraph, Mail, Sun, Star, Mirror, Express and nearly all of those have a much higher circulation individually than the others combined. The Sun has almost four times the circulation of the 'pro-EU' papers.

Mirror traditionally a more pro than anti eu paper i would think. More on remain side too though it might hedge its bets a bit, pippa crear is frequently on talk shows and comes across very pro remain. I read the times and find it very balanced, not overtly pro leave. But leave side very definitely still holds sway in overall coverage, no doubt on that i'd say.

ArmaniJeanss

prawnsambo wrote: »

I'm struggling to think of any pro-EU newspapers other than the Guardian/Observer and Independent. On the other side are the Times, Telegraph, Mail, Sun, Star, Mirror, Express and nearly all of those have a much higher circulation individually than the others combined. The Sun has almost four times the circulation of the 'pro-EU' papers.

Daily Mirror urged a vote for remain in its front page editorial before the referendum. The Times also.

Neither are rabidly pro-EU admittedly, compared to the anti-EU side.

prawnsambo

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

Daily Mirror urged a vote for remain in its front page editorial before the referendum. The Times also.

Neither are rabidly pro-EU admittedly, compared to the anti-EU side.

It's more their readership as evidenced by article comments that I'd be going by. But yeah, I forgot that the Mirror was advocating remain.

ancapailldorcha

prawnsambo wrote: »

I'm struggling to think of any pro-EU newspapers other than the Guardian/Observer and Independent. On the other side are the Times, Telegraph, Mail, Sun, Star, Mirror, Express and nearly all of those have a much higher circulation individually than the others combined. The Sun has almost four times the circulation of the 'pro-EU' papers.

The Mail on Sunday was for remain. It's then-editor, Geordie Grieg is a remainer and now edits the Mail.

ToBeFrank123

Nostalgia likely played a part in the strong leave vote among older people. Things were always better in the past, even when they weren't.

Before EU membership, most people had probably a poor standard of living in the UK. Even those considered wealthy at the time, might today be considered mere middle class.

Also, corruption is likely a reason why the wealthy middle class are in favour of leave. Its very difficult to influence or buy influence in the EU. Its much easier when you can put a word in the ear of your local friendly MP who happens to be a member of the same clubs as you.

After Brexit, expect the laws of the UK to be heavily influenced by ex Etonians to the benefit of other ex Etonians. Or similar.

I would fear for workers rights and the environment in the UK post Brexit.

Varta

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

You have a baseless claim based on a lazy stereotype and now you are moving the goalposts. I never claimed that this attitude does not exist, I simply asked for evidence that it played a significant role in returning a leave vote.

Hardly a baseless claim when it is shared by so many and regularly written about. As I said, you seem to view the British through rose tinted glasses.

Letwin_Larry

i think the whole immigration issue has had a big bearing, even though most immigrants into the UK are from outside the EU.
you could even draw a link between Bush n Blair's illegal invasion and destruction of Iraq, and the whole sh1tstorm that unleashed, ie the rise of ISIS and the collapse of Syria.

Of course people with a grudge or a bias are constantly looking for a scapegoat to project that bias and hatred onto. Farage was only too delighted to help them find one.

prawnsambo

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

The Mail on Sunday was for remain. It's then-editor, Geordie Grieg is a remainer and now edits the Mail.

I left the Sundays out of it because although some have high circulation, they're not as effective as the dailys in the drip-drip of misinformation and celebrity gossip.

Shelga

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Can you provide a link to show that the leave vote was driven in any significant part by this colonial attitude you allude to?

.

Of the dozens of middle-aged men from the West Midlands I know who voted Brexit, a superiority complex, colonial complex, or whatever you’d like to call it, played a massive part.

These people simply think they are better than people from other countries. That’s the truth of it. No, they’re not going to come out and say that to a poll-taker, and no one is going to format a question like that in a survey anyway.

prawnsambo

Shelga wrote: »

Of the dozens of middle-aged men from the West Midlands I know who voted Brexit, a superiority complex, colonial complex, or whatever you’d like to call it, played a massive part.

These people simply think they are better than people from other countries. That’s the truth of it. No, they’re not going to come out and say that to a poll-taker, and no one is going to format a question like that in a survey anyway.

"Do you think Britain could re-establish the empire once it leaves the EU?"

I'd like to try and ask that question, just to see if it would elicit the kind of response referred to.

Tired Gardener

Sam Russell wrote: »

I think there is a negative bias in the UK towards the EU.

For example:

1. UK: FoM means 'they' can come over 'here' (UK) and take our jobs and clog up the NHS while claiming benefits. Mind you, Spain is a super cheap place to retire, but the locals speak Spanish there, but there are loads of Brits so you do not have to learn it.
Rest of EU: 'We' can go over 'there'. FoM means we can travel to other parts of the EU, learn a new language and culture, and maybe settle a while.

2: UK: EU regulations are the EU trying to control us, and do daft things like prevent us enjoying our milk chocolate-flavoured confections.
RofEU: EU Regulations mean that we can trust labels to tel the truth, and that products are safe for us to use or consume. More regulations are safer.

3: UK: We pay too much into the EU.
RofEU: We pay into the EU so that poorer regions can get out of poverty, and, besides, we get back better results and at less cost than if we had to do ourselves all the things EU does by combined effort of the many EU institutions.

Plus many more.

The UK are just not team players at the international level. They think they have a 'special' relationship with the USA, but the real 'special' relationship that the USA has is with Ireland, and possibly Israel. The UK is considered quaint by most Americans. I have never heard an American claim to be UK-American or even British-American.

I agree with all of what you have said, apart from saying that there is no 'special agreement' between the UK and the USA. Because that is factual incorrect, a quick Google search will show that the 'SA' has been around since 1941.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/UKUSA_Agreement

The media in the UK are I believe to blame for a lot of the anti-EU lies that get thrown around, Banning Milk Chocolate, banning bendy bananas, etc. Sadly the UK's educational institution isn't aimed at equipping people with the tools to think critically. So they lap this up, while also living in some of the biggest wealth gaps in all of Europe. The richest region in Western Europe is London, 9 of the poorest regions are with in the UK... 6/7 of those are in the North of England. Then add in 10 years of austerity and seeing the quality of life go down.

Add in that the UK has only recently lost its Empire (1996/7), and a good number of people who were alive to vote in the 2016 referendum would have had a miss placed love of the Empire. From their perspective they have seen things being lost. We know he Empire was a horrific thing, but to some it was seen as a badge if pride.

It really wasn't a surprise that the UK voted to Leave, what is surprising is that the Remain vote was as high as it was.

Brexit is a beast birthed from many bastards. I also think that it is the wrestle with its own identity that the UK needs. The UK needs to shed off the old, and be able to play fairly with a group where it is an equal.

ancapailldorcha

Shelga wrote: »

Of the dozens of middle-aged men from the West Midlands I know who voted Brexit, a superiority complex, colonial complex, or whatever you’d like to call it, played a massive part.

These people simply think they are better than people from other countries. That’s the truth of it. No, they’re not going to come out and say that to a poll-taker, and no one is going to format a question like that in a survey anyway.

If they'll admit to being proud of the Empire and that it left the vassals better off in one as per the Yougov survey cited in Varta's Guardian link above then this would be a small leap. No evidence means that it is just an opinion.

Shelga

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

If they'll admit to being proud of the Empire and that it left the vassals better off in one as per the Yougov survey cited in Varta's Guardian link above then this would be a small leap. No evidence means that it is just an opinion.

Yes, it’s my opinion, based on working with these people for years. Isn’t this a forum to offer opinions?

prawnsambo

Tired Gardener wrote: »

I agree with all of what you have said, apart from saying that there is no 'special agreement' between the UK and the USA. Because that is factual incorrect, a quick Google search will show that the 'SA' has been around since 1941.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/UKUSA_Agreement

That's not quite the same thing as the so-called special relationship. Five Eyes is a signals intelligence co-operative that existed (as you say) since 1941. The special relationship is supposed to be a kind of entente cordiale between the USA and the UK. Supposedly making them allies as well as trade partners. The trade partnership has fallen away with the UK joining the EU and never amounted to much in any case and the alliance didn't hold up well during the Falklands War when the USA felt that their relationship with Argentina was more important.

Joe_ Public

This reminds me of the time when he was education minister Gove tried to alter the schools history curriculum to reflect a much more glorious view of british history, but was fought by academics and teachers and he backed off. But that's what they have to fight against, hard enough to actually get young people engaged without feeding them self-serving guff and lies.

briany

prawnsambo wrote: »

"Do you think Britain could re-establish the empire once it leaves the EU?"

I don't think that there are really any Brexiteers who wish to see a return of the British Empire (apart from the few requisite nutters), but I think there are a lot of Brexiteers who think that, once, the United Kingdom was a colossus which strode the world as an unrivalled economic, military and cultural power, and that Britain has the potential to be a world power again. Not necessarily re-establish the empire or anything like that, but certainly something a ways beyond what they see as vassalage.