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Another recession?

Away With The Fairies

Are we due another recession? The last one and I don't think we fully recovered. Big cities are ok but certainly in small towns and villages and they haven't recovered.

The last one, there were so much job losses. There was something every day. 500 jobs yesterday and 320 job losses reported in the news. Is this the start of another recession?

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gifted

Last recession gave me a big lesson......don't buy my lunch anymore, now I make my own......amount of construction workers that I see spending their money on overpriced crap rolls is scary......some of these workers are not even young, did they not learn anything?

sparrowcar

When not if.

Brexit may have a bearing and bring it forward but you would think we are due some sort of realignment in the short to medium term.

Stevieluvsye

gifted wrote: »

Last recession gave me a big lesson......don't buy my lunch anymore, now I make my own......amount of construction workers that I see spending their money on overpriced crap rolls is scary......some of these workers are not even young, did they not learn anything?

Good shout. Me too and is also nicer than the ****e you get in your average Spar.

I used to spend €30 a week on shop bought lunches, now spend €10. Some good lessons were learned after the last recession

Also including lights off when not required. I was terrible for that

RedParrot

weldoninhio wrote: »

The next one will be a lot worse that the first one. Hopefully coming soon and will reset Treasure Ireland. We are being fleeced.

The last recession began in 2008 and it followed a building boom where many people took out 100% mortgages for over priced apartments and houses. The last recession knocked all of that down.

I really don't think Ireland recovered very well from the last recession. A lot of young people left school or college to be faced with internships and a career ladder to climb. Many people wouldn't have the funds to take on a mortgage, so another recession maybe won't be as severe as the last recession. Another recession will definitely add to the housing crisis we do have in Ireland. Less people being able to afford a mortgage, more people relying on renting, less rental accommodation available, poor job prospects, reduced incomes.

enricoh

I think it was the irish head of intel that said 20 years ago he could go to the states n have a list the length of his arm why intel should invest its new plant in ireland over other countries.
He said now there is only one positive reason - corporation tax.
If that get hit by the eu it could get hairy quickly!

Mad_maxx

Haven Massive Iron wrote: »

The housing crisis wasn't caused by immigrants.

Central banks like the ECB and the Federal Reserve have created a low-interest-rate world that makes investing in bonds unattractive. So institutional investors who used to invest heavily in the bond market (e.g., pension funds) have been looking for other kinds of investments that produce better returns than bonds but more stable returns than stocks. They've been pumping more and more money into real estate investment trusts (REITs), which have been snapping up property to meet demand.

So now Joe and Mary, when buying a house, have to compete not only with other homebuyers but with some of the world's biggest institutional investors, who have billions to pump into the market.

Immigrants are not the cause of this. Central bankers are. If they raised interest rates, institutional investors would go back to bonds and the housing market wouldn't be so overheated.

Who competes in cities for accommodation?

nkl12xtw5goz70

Mad_maxx wrote: »

Who competes in cities for accommodation?

People who want to live in that city? I'm not being a smartarse, but I don't understand the point of the question.

smelly sock

Im sure we will be ok. The banks and financial sector obviously learned their lessons as they do so we should be covered.

Fr_Dougal

enricoh wrote: »

I think it was the irish head of intel that said 20 years ago he could go to the states n have a list the length of his arm why intel should invest its new plant in ireland over other countries.
He said now there is only one positive reason - corporation tax.
If that get hit by the eu it could get hairy quickly!

Link?

smelly sock

Stevieluvsye wrote: »

Good shout. Me too and is also nicer than the ****e you get in your average Spar.

I used to spend €30 a week on shop bought lunches, now spend €10. Some good lessons were learned after the last recession

Also including lights off when not required. I was terrible for that

I dont know. You have to live a little too. In Aldi you can buy a lunch for 2.50. Thats fruit a yoghurt and a wrap.

In any case im not sure how a fella buying a roll everyday contributed to a 64 billion euro banking catastrophe.

To be fair the ordinary paye worker had very little direct involvement in what caused the last collapse but boy did we suffer for it.

Stevieluvsye

smelly sock wrote: »

I dont know. You have to live a little too. In Aldi you can buy a lunch for 2.50. Thats fruit a yoghurt and a wrap.

In any case im not sure how a fella buying a roll everyday contributed to a 64 billion euro banking catastrophe.

To be fair the ordinary paye worker had very little direct involvement in what caused the last collapse but boy did we suffer for it.

It was more the tax increases and new taxes that were introduced. At the time i also lost out on single parent tax credit so all in all i was down €450 net a month so i had to factor in uneccesary cost but i get your point about about living a little.

There was always a few quid tucked away for weekend pints

Thelonious Monk

Do people think economies and consumption can just keep growing and growing? It's a ridiculous way to run the world, but that's how we do.

[Deleted User]

NIMAN wrote: »

Ireland isn't the only country that loses the run of itself.

I know, I said as much in the post. But it's one of those things when we really shouldn't be comparing ourselves to the other poorly managed countries, but rather only to the better ones. It's really of no use to anyone when the next recession comes to say, well loads of others are suffering to.

nkl12xtw5goz70

smelly sock wrote: »

To be fair the ordinary paye worker had very little direct involvement in what caused the last collapse

Who were the banks lending money to?

Ush1

MrAbyss wrote: »

Affordable rents, less traffic and lunch for under 80 euro - what's the problem?

The rent is infinitely less affordable with no income.

smelly sock

Might be able to get a modest 25sq meters extension for less than 80k. I'll be holding off for a few years yet.

[Deleted User]

5 countries currently looking to 'ditch' the dollar, or phase out their use of the dollar from their exports.

China, India, Turkey, Iran, Russia

A weakened Dollar would not be in Ireland's favour as we depend so much on US multinationals. The US economy directly impacts Ireland's economy.

topper75

Doctors room ghost wrote: »

Keep an eye on the price of horses.
When they are making big money the country is thriving.breakfast and chicken fillet rolls for every paddy Irishman in sight.bulgaria property back on the map.
When the price of horses drops its time to baton down the hatches and make your own breakfast and lunch.back to aldi.
When the recession kicks in proper they can’t give away horses.
That’s how I do judge economics

Yeah I wouldn't know that market myself but sometimes simple barometers like this can cut through the distortions of 'official' data.

Watching how many people are actually carrying a bag(s) in a shopping centre mall/ downtown or central shopping district area can be revelatory. People mope about town or a shopping centre to have coffee in a downturn but tend not to carry shop bags. I know internet shopping has diminished this effect somewhat but it is still real and useful.

Wanderer78

Haven Massive Iron wrote:

Who were the banks lending money to?

'Behind a bad borrower, is a bad lender'!

NSAman

There is no doubt another recession is coming.

It is all cyclical. When the Dow hits these heights you can be damned sure that it will all fall apart so the original investors take out the money and ordinary investors are left to get crumbs or more importantly loose their shirts.

During the last recession I remember getting on flights (for work) and they were empty, these same flights are now full each time I have to take them. (Same as pre-“boom” times).

Some people have learned their lessons, I know I am very very wary of doing anything silly and have saved and only bought when I can fully purchase something. No debt here!

Looking at the economy here (in the States) it is interesting. Finding workers is almost impossible. Everyone is hiring. Going into my local town, every business has “for hire” signs. However, retail is being decimated by online shopping. Larger corporations are starting to lay-off people, some of the largest and well know corporations are closing plants and that is a REAL sign that cracks are showing in this economy.

I honestly think this recession will be 1920s style.

dotsman

weldoninhio wrote: »

The next one will be a lot worse that the first one. Hopefully coming soon and will reset Treasure Ireland. We are being fleeced.

People on here cheered for the last one. They even named it "Stephen". They thought thought it would be great because it would teach that "neighbour up the road with their SVU" a lesson etc. The cheered it because they thought it meant that they would be able to afford a (bigger) house.

They stopped cheering very quickly. Only an ignorant cúnt would desire a recession.

OneEightSeven wrote: »

We never got to enjoy any recovery because of the flood of cheap immigrants labour pushing up house prices and depressing wages. As soon as our economy recovered, we went straight into a housing crisis. I don't remember that happening in the late-90s.

Actually, we did have a housing crisis in the 90's. Funnily enough, it's the same one we have now - it's merely just grown bigger. We still haven't solved it. Mainly because we haven't even taken any steps to begin to solve it.

Ireland began to modernise in the late 80's early 90's. We all know about the massive social impact and the massive increase in the standard of living. However, a third part of this modernisation has been ignored - and that is planning for modern cities.

As we move more and more to a knowledge economy, the more jobs will be based in cities. We have grown from 3.5 million to 4.8 million since 1990, with less people per household, and the bulk of the population living (or needing to live) in cities. Yet our cities still resemble small industrial era towns with rings of low-density suburbs surrounding them and rings of commercial parks surrounding them, with cars and buses the main form commuting. The whole concept of a "commercial park" is "planners don't have a clue what a city is".

[Deleted User]

Doctors room ghost wrote: »

Keep an eye on the price of horses.
When they are making big money the country is thriving.breakfast and chicken fillet rolls for every paddy Irishman in sight.bulgaria property back on the map.
When the price of horses drops its time to baton down the hatches and make your own breakfast and lunch.back to aldi.
When the recession kicks in proper they can’t give away horses.
That’s how I do judge economics

thats a good tip there. How are horse prices at the minute? And where is a good place to keep a check on them?

MrAbyss

The government should have ploughed forward and built the Metro and DART Underground and put the costs on the long finger. Allowed massive high rise housing. It would have created tens of thousands of jobs and we'd be in a better shape to handle the deep recession coming.

When a recession happens you build the biggest infrastructure, not cancel it.

Mad_maxx

Haven Massive Iron wrote: »

People who want to live in that city? I'm not being a smartarse, but I don't understand the point of the question.

"people who want to live" include immigrants

The lack of places to rent in the cities is the key problem with the housing crisis

Mad_maxx

tonycascarino wrote: »

With Germany entering recession and the upcoming Brexit which is bound to affect us, then yes, I do think a recession is not too far away.

Germany was in recession several times since 1990 and it had no effect on our economy, our economy tracks what's going on in America bar agriculture which relies on the UK

Seanachai

Been hearing rumours in past few weeks from the big clients my company has contracts with. One of them folded about a month ago.

Thelonious Monk

MrAbyss wrote: »

The government should have ploughed forward and built the Metro and DART Underground and put the costs on the long finger. Allowed massive high rise housing. It would have created tens of thousands of jobs and we'd be in a better shape to handle the deep recession coming.

When a recession happens you build the biggest infrastructure, not cancel it.

Yup that metro plan will be cancelled as soon as the recesh kicks in. I can't believe people actually think it was ever going to happen, lol.

c.p.w.g.w

I find the foundation of a lot of business' to be as solid as cream crackers.

Take retail, a whole industry of trying to sell people stuff that they don't actually need.

Then you have advertised will leads on from my first point. Lots of money spent on telling people they need stuff.

Everything to geared towards "growth"

NIMAN

enricoh wrote: »

I think it was the irish head of intel that said 20 years ago he could go to the states n have a list the length of his arm why intel should invest its new plant in ireland over other countries.
He said now there is only one positive reason - corporation tax.
If that get hit by the eu it could get hairy quickly!

Is there a link to show he actually said that?

It doesn't say much for the quality of his staff if he honestly believes that.

opentarget

Seanachai wrote: »

Been hearing rumours in past few weeks from the big clients my company has contracts with. One of them folded about a month ago.

Hearing rumors of what?