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Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Quin_Dub

This is the eleventh incarnation of our Brexit discussion thread,

Same warnings etc still apply:

As we are approaching the critical end of March October 2019 period, please bear the following in mind before posting:
Insults directed at popular figures are not acceptable in this forum
Please do not post memes, videos or comedy links here
Please do not be uncivil to other posters
Please use the report function to alert the mods when necessary

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is_that_so

Hurrache wrote: »

Exactly. Any amendments won't be equal to what the EU agreed to.

It depends what they are. It will be up to the EU to decide to accept or reject the final version.

ancapailldorcha

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Jesus just delay it until January(I know) and have a bloody general election and maybe(big ask) get a government with something like a majority however small.

This just means we'll be back here no time. The deal means only slightly better at the end of next year. If people want to see this farce ended, remain is the only option.

Seth Brundle

devnull wrote: »

Queen Speech debate (aka Election show) is back tomorrow and Thursday.

...with Parliament not sitting on Friday - you'd think they weren't facing some very important deadline next week!
Crazy!

A Dub in Glasgo

He has pulled any other votes and goes into GE mode

derrymcorry

briany wrote: »

A) That's not how the border poll is supposed to work. It's supposed to be called at a time when it's fairly clear that a majority in the North would want unification. It's not a mechanism to allow the UK to exit the EU smoothly.

Things up north are a bit politically charged at the moment. I don't think this would be the best backdrop for a border poll.

C) Brexit was brought about without hardly a thought given to NI and the peace process. There is no easy answer to the questions being posed to the Brexit movement. They made their bed. Now they must lie in it.

A) What is the exact definition of 'fairly clear that a majority of the north would want unification' in the context of the holding of the border poll? Does that mean the SoS can hold it following opinion polls? Censuses? Nationalist majority in the Assembly? I know it doesn't say in the GFA but what are the most likely conditions for it being held?

I don't think that should stop a border poll being held.

C) I couldn't agree more.

is_that_so

listermint wrote: »

Where's all this revisionism coming from!

Just perplexing.

From me or Boris? He'd sell his mother to be right but he's done well with the deal. Mind you, he was back to his usual bolshy self with the "pausing" lark.

is_that_so

Seth Brundle wrote: »

...with Parliament not sitting on Friday - you'd think they weren't facing some very important deadline next week!
Crazy!

He wants to keep his promise. Coming up with and starting negotiations on the new deal in the summer instead of prorogation would have been a more sensible approach.

PropJoe10

Liam Fox talking absolute rubbish on Sky News at the moment, I don't see anything wrong with MPs wanting to scrutinise legislation that will affect the next generation and beyond.

Spanish Eyes

Status quo was fine. I would guess that many who voted Leave had no clue as to how the EU really worked for them. But water under the bridge now.

The Trump/Putin bots got in there first. So here they are.

My gut tells me there is no real desire from UK to leave the EU at all, but many in Westminster are terrified of telling them the truth now.

Imreoir2

derrymcorry wrote: »

One thing is clear:

A border poll MUST be held before the year is out.

Let Ireland reunify and GB to go their own way out of the EU.

While there has been an opinion poll that has shown a majority in favour of a UI, I don't think that on its own is sufficient to satisfy the terms of the GFA.

Itssoeasy

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

This just means we'll be back here no time. The deal means only slightly better at the end of next year. If people want to see this farce ended, remain is the only option.

Yeah I know but look I’m as sick as we all are but I just want it bloody over FFS.

SeaBreezes

That's something I don't understand. no matter what amendments they add, then they have to go back to EU and ask again and again? They're trying to haggle? What happens if EU reject suggested amendments?

listermint

Tea Shock wrote: »

The only way of sorting all that out is an election.

Then again....it could very well return a parliament just as divided as the one they have now!

I think Johnson will seek a 1 month extension firstly - With Bercow standing down in 9-days! :rolleyes:

Election solves nothing.

Run a deal decider referendum. Including a deal. Complete exit no deal and remain.

Then they should decide this in complete because it's not being decided on people's behalf the people can choose.

is_that_so

derrymcorry wrote: »

One thing is clear:

A border poll MUST be held before the year is out.

Let Ireland reunify and GB to go their own way out of the EU.

Hasn't the stupidity of Brexit taught you anything? The year has 9 weeks left and you can write off the last two. That's three weeks at most for legislation and anything else that is required.

Water John

The DUP have given Johnson his bloodied nose. the 10 votes would have got his 3 day scrutiny of the legislation through and given him the possibility of leaving by Oct 31st.

is_that_so

SeaBreezes wrote: »

That's something I don't understand. no matter what amendments they add, then they have to go back to EU and ask again and again? They're trying to haggle? What happens if EU reject suggested amendments?

Then it's a No deal Brexit. As for amendments it depends what they do. Some want a new referendum attached to it. That wouldn't affect anything.

is_that_so

Water John wrote: »

The DUP have given Johnson his bloodied nose. the 10 votes would have got his 3 day scrutiny of the legislation through and given him the possibility of leaving by Oct 31st.

Slapped it more than bloodied it. It still gives him an opportunity to blame others, including the EU.

PropJoe10

Its unfortunate that the government are acting like two year old children. Corbyn made them an offer, Ken Clarke even suggested they take an hours recess for them to reconsider business for the next few days. But they refused.

FrancieBrady

Water John wrote: »

The DUP have given Johnson his bloodied nose. the 10 votes would have got his 3 day scrutiny of the legislation through and given him the possibility of leaving by Oct 31st.

It's a bizarre thing to inflict...the Fixed Term thing. Forcing a government that cannot win anything significant to carry on is promoting pantomime. I wonder will that be overturned in the future.

Joe_ Public

Liam Fox trying his best to blame the whole thing on labour. Hilarious! What is the job of the opposition? To oppose. Would suggest, beyond much commentary to the contrary, that they haven't actually done all that badly.

And job of government? To lead, to establish consensus, to get things done. How have they done with that then, Mr Fox?

briany

derrymcorry wrote: »

A) What is the exact definition of 'fairly clear that a majority of the north would want unification' in the context of the holding of the border poll? Does that mean the SoS can hold it following opinion polls? Censuses? Nationalist majority in the Assembly? I know it doesn't say in the GFA but what are the most likely conditions for it being held?

I don't think that should stop a border poll being held.

C) I couldn't agree more.

I'd say a healthy nationalist majority in the Assembly (if it ever sits again) would be a reasonably good indicator of an appetite for a United Ireland. I don't think there's any event specified in the GFA that is supposed to indicate that a majority will is there for a UI, though, but I'm open to correction on that.

The reason I say a politically-charged backdrop would not be for a border poll is because it would lead to people voting with the hearts rather than their heads and not stopping to consider the practicalities of the thing. At the worst, it would be like Ireland's own Brexit. Not a solid foundation for a new state, imo.

Also, a border poll can't be a good solution for Brexit because you'd ideally want the preparation to take a while, where both sides can make their arguments and so on and put together very clear, detailed proposals on what their respective futures would look like. Can't be a kangaroo referendum ala Brexit. I'd suggest the timeframe be of similar length to the currently mooted Brexit transition period. In my opinion, a UI is very unlikely to get over the line before an economically-damaging Brexit, as the pragmatic Unionists and Nationalists are more likely to vote to stay in the UK and continue on with the NHS and generally what they know, rather than taking a leap into the unknown. To hold one today, I'd say a UI would be defeated around 60-40.

Imreoir2

SeaBreezes wrote: »

That's something I don't understand. no matter what amendments they add, then they have to go back to EU and ask again and again? They're trying to haggle? What happens if EU reject suggested amendments?

It depends on the amendment. If it is for a referendum, then all the EU has to agree is an extension long enough to allow one to be held. Given they EU has constantly said that an extension must have a purpose, such a purpose is likely to be acceptable to the EU.

If on the other hand the amendment is to strip out the NI frontstop, the EU is likely to tell the UK to go whistle.

Duane Dibbley

What possible amendments would the EU accept besides a referendum on the deal?

Joe_ Public

listermint wrote: »

Election solves nothing.

Run a deal decider referendum. Including a deal. Complete exit no deal and remain.

Then they should decide this in complete because it's not being decided on people's behalf the people can choose.

You need the parliament numbers for referendum. Are they there? Not sure they are.

Imreoir2

FrancieBrady wrote: »

It's a bizarre thing to inflict...the Fixed Term thing. Forcing a government that cannot win anything significant to carry in is promoting pantomime. I wonder will that be overturned in the future.

I may be wrong, but I think it was brought in at the time of the coalition between the Lib-Dems and the Torys to reasure the Lib-Dems that the Torys could not pull the rug on the government whenever it suited them. Obviously it has had a terrible impact on their political system and I can't see any government with a majority holding onto it.

Letwin_Larry

PropJoe10 wrote: »

Its unfortunate that the government are acting like two year old children. Corbyn made them an offer, Ken Clarke even suggested they take an hours recess for them to reconsider business for the next few days. But they refused.

i agree. why they cannot sit down like adults and agree a delay sufficient to consider this Bill i just dont know.
he's got the darned thing over the line or so we thought.

this is dysfunctional on so many levels

Kermit.de.frog

Seems to be a flextention is likely.

i.e EU gives until end of January but UK can leave any time up to then if it approves the deal.

This also opens up election space + time to get it through.

Itssoeasy

Seeing as the MPs in the House of Commons are quoting dantes inferno amongst other things, can I describe this whole brexit mess in the way Mr Evans who was a member of Robert scotts failed journey to the South Pole in 1912(or 14) when he said "I'm just going outside, and I may be some time." I don't know about anyone else but for something most of no hand act or part in I'm utterly **** sick of brexit at this stage in 2019.

devnull

Cummings spin machine in full flow now
https://twitter.com/Conservatives/status/1186719122777952257

Once again the Tories being economical with the truth, the Brexit deal passed its first key hurdle in the Commons - not parliament and still needs to go to the amendments stage, but no doubt that stage will be dressed up as being something that has been created by remainers rather than normal procedure.

briany

FrancieBrady wrote: »

It's a bizarre thing to inflict...the Fixed Term thing. Forcing a government that cannot win anything significant to carry on is promoting pantomime. I wonder will that be overturned in the future.

Maybe Boris Johnson and his cronies should stop to consider that if they hadn't taken such a hard line and alienated a good chunk of their own party, they wouldn't be running a minority government. Funny how the Cons always gloss over that tidbit when crying about how they opposition won't grant an election. They're running a minority government because they're representing a minority viewpoint.