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Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Quin_Dub

This is the eleventh incarnation of our Brexit discussion thread,

Same warnings etc still apply:

As we are approaching the critical end of March October 2019 period, please bear the following in mind before posting:
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Enzokk

GM228 wrote: »

She's in competition with Johnson to see who can achieve the most failures :pac:

You cannot lose 6 votes in a row if you aren't sitting in Stormont though.:eek:

10000maniacs

Donaldson: Assembly dead if Johnson's deal goes ahead. Newsnight headline.

Mr Velo

So, who can give me the low-down on where things stand tonight following the release of the WAB. Been offline since late this afternoon.

Shelga

So are they voting on the WAB tomorrow? Does that basically mean they’re voting on the entirety of the legislation to pass Johnson’s WA?

And they’ll vote on amendments such as customs union first? (Completely ignoring the fact that the EU is done negotiating)

Strazdas

10000maniacs wrote: »

Donaldson: Assembly dead if Johnson's deal goes ahead. Newsnight headline.

Suzanne Breen of the Belfast Tel was also on Newsnight saying the DUP will try every trick in the book to bring down Johnson's deal, even voting for a second referendum.

Joe_ Public

Have to agree with Stephen Bush take on newsnight. This all feels like election triggering from boris johnson. Today was pure theatre, not a genuine attempt to secure a vote and very likely he hopes to see the wab torpedoed too. Election is the desired destination. Always has been.

Strazdas

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Have to agree with Stephen Bush take on newsnight. This all feels like election triggering from boris johnson. Today was pure theatre, not a genuine attempt to secure a vote and very likely he hopes to see the wab torpedoed too. Election is the desired destination. Always has been.

Yes, his take was that Johnson actually wants the WAB to collapse and for he to go to the public in a GE as a "Brexit martyr".

Joe_ Public

Strazdas wrote: »

Yes, his take was that Johnson actually wants the WAB to collapse and for he to go to the public in a GE as a "Brexit martyr".

That is it and so very transparent too. And if somehow they managed to get the deal through, thats alright too because it would put no deal back on the table, thus giving them a further option. Actually having the no deal option so strongly hinted at in the bill almost reads like a provocation to mps to vote it down.

GM228

Something important I forgot to mention in the WAB, S32:-

Repeal of section 13 of EUWA

(1) Section 13 of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018 (Parliamentary approval of the outcome of negotiations with the EU) is repealed.

(2) Accordingly, none of the conditions set out in paragraphs (a) to (d) of subsection (1) of that section apply in relation to the ratification of the withdrawal agreement.

This means if passed there will be no requirement for a MV in order to ratify the WA!

A Dub in Glasgo

Shelga wrote: »

So are they voting on the WAB tomorrow? Does that basically mean they’re voting on the entirety of the legislation to pass Johnson’s WA?

And they’ll vote on amendments such as customs union first? (Completely ignoring the fact that the EU is done negotiating)

This is the legislation to enact the WA. This is the most important piece of legislation for years and they are expecting to only give 2 days to it. Not a lot of time to scrutinise it (there will be nightshift teams looking at it tonight and tomorrow). The HoC is unlikely to vote for it without a suite of amendments which end up making the WA null and void.

GM228

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

This is the legislation to enact the WA. This is the most important piece of legislation for years and they are expecting to only give 2 days to it. Not a lot of time to scrutinise it (there will be nightshift teams looking at it tonight and tomorrow). The HoC is unlikely to vote for it without a suite of amendments which end up making the WA null and void.

3 days have been allocated.

In total there are only 8 sitting days to allow the readings, the committee stage and the report stage in the Commons, then the same in the Lords and then the Parliamentary Ping-Pong session.

For comparison:-

The European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018 which was only 62 pages of a Bill had 36 days for the above (allocated 12 days in the Commons).

The European Union (Notification of Withdrawal) Act 2017 had 11 days (allocated 5 days in the Commons) for the process - it contained the grand of of 5 sentences in the Bill and still had greater debate.

Danzy

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Have to agree with Stephen Bush take on newsnight. This all feels like election triggering from boris johnson. Today was pure theatre, not a genuine attempt to secure a vote and very likely he hopes to see the wab torpedoed too. Election is the desired destination. Always has been.

If he has a majority he'll pass a deal easily.

Of course he wants to trigger an election, he'll win it.

You surely don't Imagine that he wants No Deal Brexit.

No one still believes that will happen.

Joe_ Public

Can somebody clear this up for me? When they talk about "getting brexit done" by end of the month, does this include EU ratification? Are they out on 1 November if hoc passes bill even though EU parliament hasnt yet ratified it?

Danzy

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Can somebody clear this up for me? When they talk about "getting brexit done" by end of the month, does this include EU ratification? Are they out on 1 November if hoc passes bill even though EU parliament hasnt yet ratified it?

No, they will have voted out but the ratification will happen later.

There isn't an exact science abour it.

Joe_ Public

Danzy wrote: »

If he has a majority he'll pass a deal easily.

Of course he wants to trigger an election, he'll win it.

You surely don't Imagine that he wants No Deal Brexit.

No one still believes that will happen.

Its not just passing the deal (numbers incredibly tight still, so definitely not easy) but what opposition will do to compromise it. If they wreck it, as is very possible, theres every chance johnson will just scupper the deal and pressure parliament to move to trigger that election. Thats what Stephen Bush is getting at - Johnson is actively looking for that to happen. Just have to wait and see, i just believe it might be perceptive analysis.

GM228

Danzy wrote: »

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Can somebody clear this up for me? When they talk about "getting brexit done" by end of the month, does this include EU ratification? Are they out on 1 November if hoc passes bill even though EU parliament hasnt yet ratified it?

No, they will have voted out but the ratification will happen later.

There isn't an exact science abour it.

There is no deal without ratification from both sides, the EP must ratify the deal before the 31st (assuming that's still the deadline day).

The EP would need to convey a special plenary session to ratify the deal before the deadline.

Letwin_Larry

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Its not just passing the deal (numbers incredibly tight still, so definitely not easy) but what opposition will do to compromise it. If they wreck it, as is very possible, theres every chance johnson will just scupper the deal and pressure parliament to move to trigger that election. Thats what Stephen Bush is getting at - Johnson is actively looking for that to happen. Just have to wait and see, i just believe it might be perceptive analysis.

BoJo is itching for a GE. has been since he got the job. and besides his options are fast running out.
i think he'll win if he gets it. Lab are a joke. Lib Dems are on the rise but will do as much damage to Lab as the Tories imo. i really dont think Farage will make any inroads.

Tell me how

Danzy wrote: »

If he has a majority he'll pass a deal easily.

Well, obviously.

Danzy wrote: »

Of course he wants to trigger an election, he'll win it.

I wouldn't be so sure. It is likely Tories will be the biggest party but assessment of this Deal could frighten a lot of people as to the reality. there was talk earlier in the thread about how he might be at risk in his own seat.

Danzy wrote: »

You surely don't Imagine that he wants No Deal Brexit.

No one still believes that will happen.

I would be strongly of the opinion that Boris would much rather a No deal than a 3 month extension with the current WAB being analysed in detail during that time.
JRM, Davis, Farage, Raab all would rather a No Deal than extension because they are terrified of losing Brexit altogether.

Danzy

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Its not just passing the deal (numbers incredibly tight still, so definitely not easy) but what opposition will do to compromise it. If they wreck it, as is very possible, theres every chance johnson will just scupper the deal and pressure parliament to move to trigger that election. Thats what Stephen Bush is getting at - Johnson is actively looking for that to happen. Just have to wait and see, i just believe it might be perceptive analysis.

Of course he'll go for an election if the opposition block it or amend it to shi7. It would be amiss of him not to. It is the route to him getting a majority and getting the deal passed.

The EU are clear they'll facilitate Johnson as much as possible. They'll give an extension to stretch out to an election as well.

Danzy

Tell me how wrote: »

Well, obviously.

I wouldn't be so sure. It is likely Tories will be the biggest party but assessment of this Deal could frighten a lot of people as to the reality. there was talk earlier in the thread about how he might be at risk in his own seat.

I would be strongly of the opinion that Boris would much rather a No deal than a 3 month extension with the current WAB being analysed in detail during that time.
JRM, Davis, Farage, Raab all would rather a No Deal than extension because they are terrified of losing Brexit altogether.

No Deal wouldn't even pass if the ERG were the sole ones voting.

Joe_ Public

Danzy wrote: »

Of course he'll go for an election if the opposition block it or amend it to shi7. It would be amiss of him not to. It is the route to him getting a majority and getting the deal passed.

The EU are clear they'll facilitate Johnson as much as possible. They'll give an extension to stretch out to an election as well.

Its not in his power just to go for an election because he wants it. The opposition have to facilitate it, with a confidence vote or some such. So he's trying to engineer that scenario asap this week and that involves ensuring his own bill fails, done down by a hostile, anti-people parliament again.

Anyway thats all just speculative, lets just wait and see how it plays out.

Tell me how

Danzy wrote: »

No Deal wouldn't even pass if the ERG were the sole ones voting.

What gives you that idea?
No Deal or Remain, which do you think they'd go for?

Christy42

Danzy wrote: »

Of course he'll go for an election if the opposition block it or amend it to shi7. It would be amiss of him not to. It is the route to him getting a majority and getting the deal passed.

The EU are clear they'll facilitate Johnson as much as possible. They'll give an extension to stretch out to an election as well.

I mean if the opposition were happy he couldn't use it to sneak no deal through he could have had his election organised by now so that is largely on Boris.

Also a lot of the defections as he lost his majority were as he cut down his negotiation team and tried to push for no deal. Maybe if he had pushed for a deal earlier (or at least be seen to) he could kept enough people on side to have this pass.

prunudo

BBC breakfast had an interview with a guy outside Stormont about the marriage equality and abortion laws (didn't catch his name, who he represented or whether he was just someone looking forward to getting married).He made sure to get his opinion about the DUP across and all the things that we know about them yet isn't reported on the UK media I've seen. Everything from their tricks to hold up the assembly to them being British when it suits them, to all of a sudden being concerned about the GFA.
It great to finally see someone coming on and calling them out for the dinosaurs they are.

Enzokk

I don't know if this has been highlighted but if MPs vote through the WAB then the next deadline isn't in 8 months time to decide on an extension, it will be in 14 months time when the next cliff edge approaches and that time there will be no parliament intervention to decide on a extension or force one it seems.

https://twitter.com/CarolineLucas/status/1186415530401513474?s=20

Once the ERG were on board for effectively May's deal but worse you should have known there was a reason and this is one. They get their no-deal a little later than thought, those betting against the GBP gets their rewards a little later as well. The criticism of Johnson wanting no-deal that disappeared because be came back with a deal is back again front and center.

theological

Enzokk wrote: »

I don't know if this has been highlighted but if MPs vote through the WAB then the next deadline isn't in 8 months time to decide on an extension, it will be in 14 months time when the next cliff edge approaches and that time there will be no parliament intervention to decide on a extension or force one it seems.

https://twitter.com/CarolineLucas/status/1186415530401513474?s=20

Once the ERG were on board for effectively May's deal but worse you should have known there was a reason and this is one. They get their no-deal a little later than thought, those betting against the GBP gets their rewards a little later as well. The criticism of Johnson wanting no-deal that disappeared because be came back with a deal is back again front and center.

This deal is better than May's deal, not worse. The big difference is democratic input from the assembly about whether the arrangements for Northern Ireland continue or not. The rebates on tariffs for businesses is also an improvement.

Could you explain why exactly you think May's deal was better because I genuinely don't see the logic?

Danzy wrote: »

Of course he'll go for an election if the opposition block it or amend it to shi7. It would be amiss of him not to. It is the route to him getting a majority and getting the deal passed.

The EU are clear they'll facilitate Johnson as much as possible. They'll give an extension to stretch out to an election as well.

Sure but the problem remains. The opposition are too chicken to hold an election and are keeping the Government hostage with the Fixed Term Parliament Act.

Best option is pass this and call an election about the next steps.

Joe_ Public

theological wrote: »

This deal is better than May's deal, not worse. The big difference is democratic input from the assembly about whether the arrangements for Northern Ireland continue or not. The rebates on tariffs for businesses is also an improvement.

Could you explain why exactly you think May's deal was better because I genuinely don't see the logic?

There is this:

Projected hit to gdp under may deal: over 2%

Projected hit to gdp under Johnson deal: over 6%

Thats by the gov's own analysis. Brexit mps know they are making their constituents poorer but are voting for it anyway because....lets get it done!

Enzokk

theological wrote: »

This deal is better than May's deal, not worse. The big difference is democratic input from the assembly about whether the arrangements for Northern Ireland continue or not. The rebates on tariffs for businesses is also an improvement.

Could you explain why exactly you think May's deal was better because I genuinely don't see the logic?

I am posting on it from a UK perspective as we seem to be fine with the deal. It is probably a wash for us between May's deal and this one, it is better to have a NI only backstop but there will be more barriers to the UK.

For the UK this deal is worse, projected to have more impact economically and no protection of workers rights. The removal of the provisions on level playing field from the WA to the PD makes it likely to be dropped by a future government and thus even more barriers to trade with the EU and more impact on their economy.

Zubeneschamali

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Projected hit to gdp under Johnson deal: over 6%

Lower trade, and less money in everyone's pockets. If the UK crashes out with No Deal in Jan 2021 with tariffs on agrifood, Ireland will take a big hit.

It does the absolute minimum for now - no Border, €30 bn (if you trust them to pay up) and reciprocal rights for EU citizens. But it is a bad deal.

BarryD2

Momentum is important in politics as well as sport and life. Be interesting to see what happens in votes today. If Johnson has success, momentum will swing behind him.

He needs the support of rebel Labour MPs, what is the Labour Party going to do if/ when some vote with Johnson?