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Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Quin_Dub

This is the eleventh incarnation of our Brexit discussion thread,

Same warnings etc still apply:

As we are approaching the critical end of March October 2019 period, please bear the following in mind before posting:
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Igotadose

Bercow has disallowed the government from bringing the WAB to a vote. Bercow referenced Erskine-May, saying the motions are essentially the same. "

Motion will not be debated as it will be repetitive and disorderly to do so"

Letwin_Larry

"repetitive & disorderly"

[Deleted User]

John Bercow rules out an MV until the WAB is passed.

Joe_ Public

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

At this stage, my money is on:

Delay until Jan 31st
A vote on Bojo's deal before then which will fail narrowly - to lose by about 4 votes
An election somehow forced through despite the best efforts by Labour not to hold one
Johnson to win a narrow majority. Lib Dems and Brexit Party to make gains, Labour to lose many seats.
Another vote on his deal which will succeed

I suspect you are wrong on first point, seems to me EU is deliberating on a short, technical extension to get deal over the line or a much longer one (next summer perhaps) to cater for a referendum and/or election. Even for an election january 31 doesnt offer half enough time to facilitate a new end point imo. Money is on the long extension for parliament to vote yay or nay.

Letwin_Larry

i'm sensing a big slap in the face from Bercow here

dublinman1990

It's not going ahead. Nothing to see here folks.

farmchoice

https://www.parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/d0537ce3-6000-4751-b120-360a2cf3da88
bercow on his feet now

devnull

Chancellor rejects request to publish economic assessment of Brexit deal

https://twitter.com/TomBoadle/status/1186284597409173509

The Chancellor also dismisses claims that the deal could lead to GDP being 6.7% lower after 15 years than if the UK remained in the EU. Says the "FTA modelled in the analysis (see below) does not correspond to the agreement we will be seeking".

More hiding away things which they don't want people to see as they might see the sham for what it is.

Seth Brundle

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

There's pros and cons to EU membership.

The current arguing in the HoC highlights both the strengths and flaws of national parliaments.

The EU can impose directives on countries which can then be rubber stamped by national parliaments. This helps avoid the petty politics and corruption endemic in almost all parliaments.

Some say the EU is a dictatorship but sometimes you need a dictatorship to get things done fast.

That's different to what Kermit.de.frog was implying.
Kermit.de.frog is trying to suggest that the Irish were bullied into a second vote on Lisbon and we decided to change our mind but what he doesn't mention is that we secured some guarrantees from the EU and therefore voted on something different.

ToBeFrank123

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Right - I'm going to call you out on this.
Can you clarify which vote against the EU did the Irish people overturn and why?
Did the Irish people vote on exactly the same thing the second time around?

There's pros and cons to EU membership.

The current arguing in the HoC highlights both the strengths and flaws of national parliaments.

The EU can impose directives on countries which can then be rubber stamped by national parliaments. This helps avoid the petty politics and corruption endemic in almost all parliaments.

Some say the EU is a dictatorship but sometimes you need a dictatorship to get things done fast.

Letwin_Larry

briany wrote: »

Brexit and the Northern Irish status quo are ultimately incompatible. You cannot have both. The issue was barely talked about before the referendum, and rubbished as project fear when it was.

It's not even a minor detail. It's a great big elephant of an issue with neon signs pointing towards it. Think about it for a moment - you're giving a choice to an electorate who doesn't appreciate any level of detail and then certain politicians are holding up their decision as an informed one. The mind does truly boggle.

i've said all along it is a square that you cannot circle, unless one side concedes which they clearly dont want to, or at least not enough.

Ireland has always been a footnote in English history, why should they change now? if it wasn't for the EU do you honestly think they would give us a seconds consideration?

Seth Brundle

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

If the result was overturned in the UK I think that will be the 5th time a vote against the EU by referendum has been overturned including in France, the Netherlands and Ireland.

Don't know about anyone else but i'm spotting a trend here...

Right - I'm going to call you out on this.
Can you clarify which vote against the EU did the Irish people overturn and why?
Did the Irish people vote on exactly the same thing the second time around?

ToBeFrank123

At this stage, my money is on:

Delay until Jan 31st
A vote on Bojo's deal before then which will fail narrowly - to lose by about 4 votes
An election somehow forced through despite the best efforts by Labour not to hold one
Johnson to win a narrow majority. Lib Dems and Brexit Party to make gains, Labour to lose many seats.
Another vote on his deal which will succeed

VinLieger

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

If the result was overturned in the UK I think that will be the 5th time a vote against the EU by referendum has been overturned including in France, the Netherlands and Ireland.

Don't know about anyone else but i'm spotting a trend here...

Yeah there's definitely a conspiracy, maybe someone should also investigate every election where the opposition beats the current government, classic examples of a previous result being suspiciously overturned if you ask me

Duane Dibbley

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Can you point to a poll from 2019 which supports this?

Leave has actually only been ahead of Remain for a rather short period coinciding with the 2016 campaign with all the dark money/Cambridge Analytica shenanigans at their height.

7 poll-of-polls show results from dead level to 4% remain:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum#Polls_of_polls

Its stupid pointing at Polls.

Polls before the Referendum pointed at a remain victory.

LeinsterDub

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

If the result was overturned in the UK I think that will be the 5th time a vote against the EU by referendum has been overturned including in France, the Netherlands and Ireland.

Don't know about anyone else but i'm spotting a trend here...

That people often vote use the EU vote as a proxy vote to send a message to their current government ?

briany

Letwin_Larry wrote: »

we heard a lot of concerns being expressed about the likelihood of violence returning if a NI border was reinstalled.
personally i thing parts of GB will explode if (as now seems likely) Brexit is frustrated/prevented/avoided depending on your point of view.

the fault lines of the Union have really been exposed.

Brexit and the Northern Irish status quo are ultimately incompatible. You cannot have both. The issue was barely talked about before the referendum, and rubbished as project fear when it was.

It's not even a minor detail. It's a great big elephant of an issue with neon signs pointing towards it. Think about it for a moment - you're giving a choice to an electorate who doesn't appreciate any level of detail and then certain politicians are holding up their decision as an informed one. The mind does truly boggle.

moon2

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

If the result was overturned in the UK I think that will be the 5th time a vote against the EU by referendum has been overturned including in France, the Netherlands and Ireland.

Don't know about anyone else but i'm spotting a trend here...

In the case of Ireland, at least, I would view this as a sign of a functional democracy. A proposal was put forward, it was rejected for reasons, an amended proposal addressing the reasons was put forward and that was deemed acceptable.

The fact this happens so infrequently is two fold. Firstly not every country must hold a vote for a given piece of legislation. Secondly, perhaps the EU excel at coming to agreements with appropriate concessions before putting something forward for ratification.

Zubeneschamali

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

If the result was overturned in the UK I think that will be the 5th time a vote against the EU by referendum has been overturned including in France, the Netherlands and Ireland.

Don't know about anyone else but i'm spotting a trend here...

Judging by the Irish and UK example, torrents of lies and bullsh!t from the anti-EU crowd can get a win, and then reason, evidence and a bit of flexibility from the EU can overturn it.

Does that pattern hold in France and the Netherlands cases?

Duane Dibbley

robinph wrote: »

That we don't currently know, the "most" bit.

All that anyone can say at the moment is that a bunch of different people want a bunch of different things, nothing more specific than that can be said.

What do you think has changed their mind since the referendum?

seamus

Ward J. Littell wrote: »

That people change their mind?

It's more that any people's vote with a loose relation to the EU gets hijacked by nationalists and demagogues who use it as an opportunity to spread disinformation and gain power. And even worse is that they've now realised they no longer need to hijack votes, they can just create unnecessary ones, like Brexit.

It speaks to the necessity for a EU-wide RefCom-style body whose duty it is to create and distribute impartial information within EU countries whenever an EU-relevant referendum or European Election is taking place.

Tacitus Kilgore

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

If the result was overturned in the UK I think that will be the 5th time a vote against the EU by referendum has been overturned including in France, the Netherlands and Ireland.

Don't know about anyone else but i'm spotting a trend here...

To be fair Kermit, you offer some fantastic discussion on here, it's also good to be a sceptic - but you've been talking about the Bus that's coming for Ireland from the EU on Brexit for over 3 years now and it still hasn't arrived, it's blatantly obvious to the rest of us that the EU doesn't even own such a bus.

This trend above is non-existent, the Brexit vote should be reversed absolutely, not because the EU would like it, but because the whole idea of Brexit is ridiculous and is just not compatible with the modern world - and that's before you even try to pick just one of the possible routes of Brexit..

Zubeneschamali

Duane Dibbley wrote: »

I think most English people still want Brexit.

Can you point to a poll from 2019 which supports this?

Leave has actually only been ahead of Remain for a rather short period coinciding with the 2016 campaign with all the dark money/Cambridge Analytica shenanigans at their height.

7 poll-of-polls show results from dead level to 4% remain:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum#Polls_of_polls

trellheim

To no-one's surprise the Govt did not want this to come out beforehand

The #Brexit Minister Stephen Barclay just confirmed to me in his @LordsEUCom evidence that, under the Govt's proposals, Northern Irish businesses sending goods to Great Britain will have to complete export declaration forms.

https://twitter.com/StewartWood/status/1186250252191457280

robinph

Duane Dibbley wrote: »

I dont agree with this.

I think most English people still want Brexit. I dont believe they see the EU the same way Irish and People from the EU mainland.

That we don't currently know, the "most" bit.

All that anyone can say at the moment is that a bunch of different people want a bunch of different things, nothing more specific than that can be said.

[Deleted User]

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

If the result was overturned in the UK I think that will be the 5th time a vote against the EU by referendum has been overturned including in France, the Netherlands and Ireland.

Don't know about anyone else but i'm spotting a trend here...

That people change their mind?

Kermit.de.frog

If the result was overturned in the UK I think that will be the 5th time a vote against the EU by referendum has been overturned including in France, the Netherlands and Ireland.

Don't know about anyone else but i'm spotting a trend here...

Letwin_Larry

Duane Dibbley wrote: »

I dont agree with this.

I think most English people still want Brexit. I dont believe they see the EU the same way Irish and People from the EU mainland.

Ireland's relationship and attitude towards the EU is the polar opposite of many (not sure about a majority though) in the UK.
let's face it, because of our colonial past, they are used to having "the whip hand", Ireland was a victim of colonialism.

The EU now for the first time in our history allows us a seat at the table with the big boys. The UK (England in particular) resents what it sees as EU interference.

Tacitus Kilgore

Seth Brundle wrote: »

What exactly did they win?
In terms of the result being carried out, what exactly is to be carried out?

If this was twitter you would be sent a picture of the ballot paper in reply.

Which, itself is no more an answer than I am, but it is what we, and the rest* of the UK are up against.

*The sane ones

Duane Dibbley

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

We don't know they are right to expect that, and I am not sure how many actually do expect that. I have seen lots of Leavers say that they expect the Elite/EU will prevent Brexit from ever happening.

I'd say many would be relieved to be able to go back to harmlessly complaining instead of gazing into the actual abyss of Brexit, as long as they don't have to admit they were reckless.

I dont agree with this.

I think most English people still want Brexit. I dont believe they see the EU the same way Irish and People from the EU mainland.