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Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Quin_Dub

This is the eleventh incarnation of our Brexit discussion thread,

Same warnings etc still apply:

As we are approaching the critical end of March October 2019 period, please bear the following in mind before posting:
Insults directed at popular figures are not acceptable in this forum
Please do not post memes, videos or comedy links here
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Joe_ Public

Strazdas wrote: »

The ERG would vote down an all UK customs union en masse. That's why I think the Labour amendment is purely a stalling tactic designed to disrupt Johnson.

Erg have 60 or 70 votes, that wont vote it down. Labour could very likely pass that amendment, in fact i think they would. Dup might even go for it.

Sam Russell

listermint wrote: »

Absolute horse crap.

There is no majority leave vote. The notion that there will be widespread civil unrest is nonsense peddled by hard right news papers.

Is that were you are consuming this crap from.

The leavers can't even muster more than a handful of people to turn up at rallies. Not once ever in the last here years.

So praytell where is it you get this information from

The Farage Jarrow- London Brexit march moved from rally to rally on a single coach.

GM228

[Deleted User] wrote: »

The easy answer is for the EU to say that there is a (time limited) "free pass" to rejoin, if after the next GE a pro EU government is elected.

Then the remainers can just sit back, call the GE and return the UK to the EU (if they win)

It may sound like an easy answer, but it is not a possible answer. The EU would not be able to allow a free pass to rejoin, once they are out they are out and if they wanted back in they would have to to through the same accession process as any other country which takes years.

Kermit.de.frog

[Deleted User] wrote: »

There is no deal. Teresa May agreed a draft withdrawal agreement but couldnt get it through the HoC.

Along comes Boris, he agrees a draft agreement but so far can't get it through the HoC. Without a deal, there is a no deal. And then everyone is fukt.

There is danger of that either way.

You really don't get the implications of this, do you?

There is a deal between the British government and the EU.

We don't negotiate with a parliament for obvious reasons, we negotiate with the government.

What implications do you fear?

They voted to leave. They should leave.

It's not hard to understand.

J Mysterio

Its ridiculous this call to bring an amendment for an all UK customs union.

The deal was negotiated between the EU and the UK. Parliament can't just make whatever changes they fancy to this now and think that is ok. It's so arrogant.

Who says a customs union is now on offer? Who says that wouldn't require a different compromise from the UK? Quid pro quo. How would a customs union then affect the arrangements for Ireland?

The deal is the deal. It's the second deal. It's infuriating this idea that the UK can unilaterally change the deal now. Barnier was literally briefing ambassadors on the deal yesterday, and the UK is already trying to pick it apart again.

The UK need to understand that the latest deal is the deal unless and until there is agreement from the EU to alter it. The EU have no intention of changing the deal as they just concluded it literally days ago, miraculously pulling it out of the bag after some big compromises.

If the UK don't want to pass the deal, they should focus on getting an extension for a GE and/or a referendum. That also requires agreement of the EU if they don't want to crash out in 11 days.

Of course we don't know if the deal has a majority or not, because the HOC stopped the HOC asking the HOC. For ****s sake.

Water John

If Johnson is found to be in contempt of court or sought to circumvent the law, that would turn his Great Saturday on its head.

listermint

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

There is a deal between the British government and the EU.

We don't negotiate with a parliament for obvious reasons, we negotiate with the government.

What implications do you fear?

They voted to leave. They should leave.

It's not hard to understand.

The electorate are fully entitled to vote on the final deal.

Do you agree or not.

Strazdas

Sam Russell wrote: »

The negotiations I am referring to start on the day after Brexit actually occurs, if it ever does.

Labour are talking about amending the actual WAB (Withdrawal Agreement Bill), as per Lewis Goodall :

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1185992750279352322

A total non runner as Johnson would still be PM and the one supposedly doing the negotiating

Kermit.de.frog

listermint wrote: »

The electorate are fully entitled to vote on the final deal.

Do you agree or not.

I'm not against a public vote to leave with this deal or no deal.

Capt'n Midnight

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Would ROI really welcome a UI?

I doubt it given the polarity of things up North. Does ROI really need to take that on with no realistic benefit?

Well if there is a benefit, tell me now.

A UI would mean we could join Schengen , Pros and Cons but since you have to do ID and security checks at airports and ferry's today for UK travel anyway its not a biggie. Once you've travelled within Schengen you'll understand.

It removes any threat of a Hard Border

It provides a new source of cheaper workers and they'd get a higher standard of living.

Right now only 1% of our exports head north. ( Its 30% the other way, but that's excluding the rest of the UK ) so more trade both ways.

Electricity and health care are fairly integrated at the moment. A while back the Air Corp helicopters were dropping water on fires in the North.

GM228

Water John wrote: »

If Johnson is found to be in contempt of court or sought to circumvent the law, that would turn his Great Saturday on its head.

I think his Great Saturday was already turned on it's head a little after 2.30pm.

listermint

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I'm not against a public vote to leave with this deal or no deal.

Then you are not for the electorate and democracy it seems.

I've always suspected this though.

Are you also for subversion of the electoral process ? By let's say I don't know extremely wealthy forces hoping to make massive amounts of money.

Capt'n Midnight

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Erg have 60 or 70 votes, that wont vote it down. Labour could very likely pass that amendment, in fact i think they would. Dup might even go for it.

70 votes ??

There's only 28 core ERG "Spartans" who voted against May.

And three of them Priti Patel, Jacob Rees-Mogg and Theresa Villiers - are now members of Mr Johnson's cabinet so they will vote as told or lose their jobs. They could even loose their jobs if they can't whip the rest into compliance.

[Deleted User]

GM228 wrote: »

It may sound like an easy answer, but it is not a possible answer. The EU would not be able to allow a free pass to rejoin, once they are out they are out and if they wanted back in they would have to to through the same accession process as any other country which takes years.

They could if all 27 agree, after all they're being asked to agree on a lot of things that have been unexpected in recent months. If they really want closure on the whole Brexit saga, it provided a way out for all, and a possible way back for the remainers.

A far better option than a no deal crashout, which is still possible if an extension is refused.

Capt'n Midnight

Sam Russell wrote: »

The Farage Jarrow- London Brexit march moved from rally to rally on a single coach.

If only they had a few billionaires to back their campaign.

Astroturfing at its finest.

Indestructable

It's outrageous that the HOC are trying to amend the Agreement in any manner whatsoever. Sure at that rate they could tack on that the EU will pay the UK 39 billion as a parting gift.

It's not within the gift, scope or power of the HOC to amend the Agreement. They can obviously add on things such as a confirmatory referendum as this doesn't fundamentally change the Agreement.

The CU amendment is more sh1t acting by the members of the HOC, and they know it. They NEED an election, there is no other way forward at this time, if they won't ratify the Agreement as it is.

Joe_ Public

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

70 votes ??

There's only 28 core ERG "Spartans" who voted against May.

And three of them Priti Patel, Jacob Rees-Mogg and Theresa Villiers - are now members of Mr Johnson's cabinet so they will vote as told or lose their jobs. They could even loose their jobs if they can't whip the rest into compliance.

Ive heard different numbers for erg membership, up to 80 so i dont know. Maybe its just those 28 hardcore...anyway, point is i think that cu amendment would pass if brought. The usual tories might be minded to support it

But what happens this week could depend on what message, if any, comes from europe. Though numbers are tight i suspect Johnson must be close to giving up hope he can ever best this parliament and wants to get to that GE asap, this week if possible.

Kermit.de.frog

listermint wrote: »

Then you are not for the electorate and democracy it seems.

I've always suspected this though.

Are you also for subversion of the electoral process ? By let's say I don't know extremely wealthy forces hoping to make massive amounts of money.

I am all for democracy.

They voted to leave. Ergo they leave.

I think you have the issue with democracy, not me.

Kermit.de.frog

Indestructable wrote: »

The CU amendment is more sh1t acting by the members of the HOC, and they know it. They NEED an election, there is no other way forward at this time, if they won't ratify the Agreement as it is.

An election in which the Tories will mop up as all polls predict and they will leave with this deal anyway.

This is just pointless delay.

Mr.Nice Guy

listermint wrote: »

Absolute horse crap.

There is no majority leave vote. The notion that there will be widespread civil unrest is nonsense peddled by hard right news papers.

Is that were you are consuming this crap from.

The leavers can't even muster more than a handful of people to turn up at rallies. Not once ever in the last here years.

So praytell where is it you get this information from

There were politicians having to take police escorts to get out of the building on Saturday. Numerous MPs have been subjected to death threats. Judges have been termed 'enemies of the people'. A politician was murdered days before the referendum by a nutter shouting 'Britain First'.

You would only need a small percentage of that 17.4 million to kick off for there to be unrest, and you don't need to be a right wing newspaper to realise that there are plenty of potential headcases out there who could do significant damage if they feel they have been 'betrayed'.

Leaver rallies are a barometer of nothing. They haven't yet come to the conclusion that they won't get their way.

Professor Moriarty

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I am all for democracy.

They voted to leave. Ergo they leave.

I think you have the issue with democracy, not me.

Under what terms did they vote Leave?

marno21

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I am all for democracy.

They voted to leave. Ergo they leave.

I think you have the issue with democracy, not me.

It is now a full 3 and a half years since that vote. The electorate is vastly different, and the leave campaign has been shown to have made promises to the electorate which either cannot be fulfilled or will not be fulfilled.

And that’s aside from all the Cambridge Analytica stuff.

If there’s a GE soon then 2 GEs will have passed since Brexit also. If “democracy” applies to general elections and they reoccur why can’t it apply to referenda?

Joe_ Public

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

An election in which the Tories will mop up as all polls predict and they will leave with this deal anyway.

This is just pointless delay.

How did it work out for Theresa May?

Letwin_Larry

the whole fiasco is an unmitigated disaster for GB's reputation and standing in the world.

i find it ironic that a nation that ruled half the globe, and felt it their destiny to tell other so called "lesser" peoples how to govern themselves, now seems incapable of organizing itself.
the chickens really have come home to roost.

i met some English people over the weekend. nice couple in their mid 30s. upwardly mobile, well educated. the conversation inevitably turned to the B subject. they were truly embarrassed by the whole thing.

if only we here were not so close to the action and the likely negative consequences, then we could really enjoy it.

Indestructable

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

An election in which the Tories will mop up as all polls predict and they will leave with this deal anyway.

This is just pointless delay.

Yeah, I believe they will and then the deal negotiated last week is where we will end up, absolutely.

But the election has to happen. Labour will be looking at the polls and won't table the VONC. The FTPA is an extremely ill thought out and damaging act.

J Mysterio

Gove is now warning/ threatening that he is 'triggering' Operation Yellowhammer.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/no-deal-brexit-boris-johnson-operation-yellowhammer-eu-extension-a9163636.html

Professor Moriarty

So you decided you wanted to Leave. Okay, three years later, here's the deal we got. Now, do you want that deal or do you want to stay?

Kermit.de.frog

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

There were politicians having to take police escorts to get out of the building on Saturday. Numerous MPs have been subjected to death threats. Judges have been termed 'enemies of the people'. A politician was murdered days before the referendum by a nutter shouting 'Britain First'.

You would only need a small percentage of that 17.4 million to kick off for there to be unrest, and you don't need to be a right wing newspaper to realise that there are plenty of potential headcases out there who could do significant damage if they feel they have been 'betrayed'.

Leaver rallies are a barometer of nothing. They haven't yet come to the conclusion that they won't get their way.

100% agree.

Over the last 3 years remainers have treated leavers as if they were stupid. They have been demeaned and insulted by remainers daily.

Now they want to say to leavers not only are you stupid and your voice shouldn't count but we have overturned the vote you won in the referendum.

What could possibly go wrong...?

Professor Moriarty

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

100% agree.

Over the last 3 years remainers have treated leavers as if they were stupid. They have been demeaned and insulted by remainers daily.

Now they want to say to leavers not only are you stupid and your voice shouldn't count but we have I returned the vote you won in the referendum.

What could possibly go wrong...?

What did the "leavers" vote for?

Joe_ Public

J Mysterio wrote: »

Gove is now warning/ threatening that he is 'triggering' Operation Yellowhammer.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/no-deal-brexit-boris-johnson-operation-yellowhammer-eu-extension-a9163636.html

That is why i think the opposition need to be thinking of strategies like that CU amendment. They had macron trying to do their dirty work for them before saturday, now they are trying a different tack.