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Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Quin_Dub

This is the eleventh incarnation of our Brexit discussion thread,

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As we are approaching the critical end of March October 2019 period, please bear the following in mind before posting:
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Joe_ Public

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The more you think about it, the more bizarre it seems. I think Beth was being sold a dummy.

Prof was on ball earlier i reckon with his duirt bean liom line. Could be a wind up. Then again something surely got to explain johnsons smugness today after amendment passed. I want it to be empty bluster but still worries me all the same. What trick have they up their sleeve?

hometruths

I think this is all playing into Johnson's hands for positioning his campaign for the GE.

He will have to ask for an extension tonight, and will refuse to aceept/negotiate any conditions the EU might want to impose.

If you believe EU will grant an extension their only option is to say yes to 31st January, no strings attached.

Extension in place, Corbyn must table the VONC which presumably government will lose. There wont be enough support for GNU - move straight to GE.

IMO today's carry on simply increases the chances of a big Johnson majority in GE. I don't think there will be a deal which is as good for Ireland as the one that is on the table at the minute.

Joe_ Public

theological wrote: »

The vote for this amendment - is not an anti-Brexit vote, it is a vote to ensure the legislation is in place before a deal.

Letwin who raised the amendment supports the deal, but wants to prevent no deal in the interim.

There are MPs who voted for this amendment, who will also vote for the deal.

Todays vote was a reasonable proxy vote for deal i would say. No tories voted for and if a few, no more than a handful, might vote for amendment and deal, it wouldn't be enough to swing it. Kate hoey voted with gov today but i think she will be against deal when it comes back and there could be one or two more in that bracket too. Without dup, going to be very hard work for johnson and far from convinced he even gets those labour 10.

theological

schmittel wrote: »

I think this is all playing into Johnson's hands for positioning his campaign for the GE.

He will have to ask for an extension tonight, and will refuse to aceept/negotiate any conditions the EU might want to impose.

If you believe EU will grant an extension their only option is to say yes to 31st January, no strings attached.

Extension in place, Corbyn must table the VONC which presumably government will lose. There wont be enough support for GNU - move straight to GE.

IMO today's carry on simply increases the chances of a big Johnson majority in GE. I don't think there will be a deal which is as good for Ireland as the one that is on the table at the minute.

Why do you think he will lose a vote of no confidence?

Jeremy Corbyn is losing support of Labour backbenchers on this. That is clear. I'm not convinced the DUP will vote against Johnson, and I'm not convinced any Tories (or Independent Tories) will either.

The realistic direction of travel seems to be that Johnson will pass this deal and then move towards an election. Hopefully Corbyn won't be too chicken to accept one.

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Todays vote was a reasonable proxy vote for deal i would say. No tories voted for and if a few, no more than a handful, might vote for amendment and deal, it wouldn't be enough to swing it. Kate hoey voted with gov today but i think she will be against deal when it comes back and there could be one or two more in that bracket too. Without dup, going to be very hard work for johnson and far from convinced he even gets those labour 10.

No. Today's vote was on the mechanism for agreement. As I said, some of those who voted for it have expressed an interest in voting for the deal.

Duane Dibbley

brickster69 wrote: »

Obviously the EU will accept an extension. The only deal they cannot accept is no deal. Backstop gone and withdrawal agreement opened which they said they would never do. Bluffers thrown it's hand away already

Why don’t the UK just leave. The EU have agreed 2 Brexit deals now. Unless you are a remainer and delighted with the extensions.

Are you a remainer?

hometruths

theological wrote: »

Why do you think he will lose a vote of no confidence?

Jeremy Corbyn is losing support of Labour backbenchers on this. That is clear. I'm not convinced the DUP will vote against Johnson, and I'm not convinced any Tories (or Independent Tories) will either.

The realistic direction of travel seems to be that Johnson will pass this deal and then move towards an election. Hopefully Corbyn won't be too chicken to accept one.

Labour will run a 3 line whip on it, SNP will all back it, as will Lib Dems I imagine.

Johnston wants to lose a VONC , no doubt about, expect some strategic Tory abstentions to bolster the above numbers.

jem

Could the Eu not respond to the extension letter by giving them an extension which would have them leave 1 month after the UK parliment votes to leave.
So if they vote to leave on say Oct 30th they leave on Nov 30th, likewise of the dont vote to leave until March 31st then they leave April 30th.
In effect a rolling extenstion so one way or the other there is no cliff edge.

Joe_ Public

theological wrote: »

Why do you think he will lose a vote of no confidence?

Jeremy Corbyn is losing support of Labour backbenchers on this. That is clear. I'm not convinced the DUP will vote against Johnson, and I'm not convinced any Tories (or Independent Tories) will either.

The realistic direction of travel seems to be that Johnson will pass this deal and then move towards an election. Hopefully Corbyn won't be too chicken to accept one.

No. Today's vote was on the mechanism for agreement. As I said, some of those who voted for it have expressed an interest in voting for the deal.

I know what todays vote was for. The key number is 6 - thats how many labour mps backed it and thats not enough for the pm without the dup. Forget about letwin and one or two other independents being in favour. To get a deal through he needs more Labour votes and theres nothing today that suggests he'll get them. No reason for any labour leaver not to be voting against the amendment today.

Water John

How many have to switch, nine?

prawnsambo

jem wrote: »

Could the Eu not respond to the extension letter by giving them an extension which would have them leave 1 month after the UK parliment votes to leave.
So if they vote to leave on say Oct 30th they leave on Nov 30th, likewise of the dont vote to leave until March 31st then they leave April 30th.
In effect a rolling extenstion so one way or the other there is no cliff edge.

Yes they can. And they did the last time:

If the Withdrawal Agreement is ratified by both parties before this date, the withdrawal will take place on the first day of the following month.

Edit: Past the set date is not possible. That requires a whole lot of legislation which would be a complete pain in the arse.

Dyr

CelticRambler wrote: »

Hmm. I don't believe Johnson succeeded with anything of the sort. I think Varadkar went to Cheshire and handed him an achievement, carefully prepared and packaged by the team in the EU who knew they were dealing with an incompetent fool that needed all the help he could get.

Seeing as all of us "amateurs" here on boards.ie have known for three years that an Irish Sea border was the only feasible solution to every Brexit problem, I reckon all those late night "negotiations" of the last couple of weeks were EU officials patiently explaining to the British the detail of a plan that's been sitting on a Brussels shelf for two years.

Or maybe smacking them over the head with it.

No one on the forum predicted that Varadker would climb down on the backstop, it was quite the opposite posters certain there would be no give or further concessions

joe40

schmittel wrote: »

I think this is all playing into Johnson's hands for positioning his campaign for the GE.

He will have to ask for an extension tonight, and will refuse to aceept/negotiate any conditions the EU might want to impose.

If you believe EU will grant an extension their only option is to say yes to 31st January, no strings attached.

Extension in place, Corbyn must table the VONC which presumably government will lose. There wont be enough support for GNU - move straight to GE.

IMO today's carry on simply increases the chances of a big Johnson majority in GE. I don't think there will be a deal which is as good for Ireland as the one that is on the table at the minute.

But will a big Johnston majority just mean this deal will then go through so we will be no worse of for having an extension

prawnsambo

Bambi wrote: »

No one on the forum predicted that Varadker would climb down on the backstop, it was quite the opposite posters certain there would be no give or further concessions

He climbed down from the backstop to a front stop. If you need to know how much like the original NI backstop it is, ask the DUP.

The Rape of Lucretia

schmittel wrote: »

He will have to ask for an extension tonight, and will refuse to aceept/negotiate any conditions the EU might want to impose.

If you believe EU will grant an extension their only option is to say yes to 31st January, no strings attached.

Surely they have the option of saying they will extend, but only a 'technical' extension of 1 week or something to allow the passing of legislation. Johnson asks for 4 months, as law requires him to, but is turned down. Accepts.
Both sides understand this is useful as his deal has a reasonable chance of succeeding, and getting the job done by 31st.
A nod and a wink understanding, already setup by the sherpas for this very scenario, just waiting to be triggered.

Joe_ Public

Water John wrote: »

How many have to switch, nine?

9 or 10 could well do it, but that would be assuming he holds on to the likes of philip hammond and justine greening and i detected some resistance in their words today. Guto Bebb is another tory rebel who could easily be against the deal.

Christy42

Bambi wrote: »

No one on the forum predicted that Varadker would climb down on the backstop, it was quite the opposite posters certain there would be no give or further concessions

I mean. We called it by a different name if you feel that is a climb down?

The UK can't cancel it. It has to be NI so that worry is gone. There is no time limit on it. It will be out of the customs union.. but have it's laws dictated to it by Brussels with no voice at the table.

FrancieBrady

prawnsambo wrote: »

He climbed down from the backstop to a front stop. If you need to know how much like the original NI backstop it is, ask the DUP.

That move could have the DUP being critical in stopping Brexit altogether. By supporting another Ref.
Irony meter overload.

10000maniacs

prawnsambo wrote: »

He climbed down from the backstop to a front stop. If you need to know how much like the original NI backstop it is, ask the DUP.

Varadkar was doing his maths.
The last thing Ireland wants is to be shipping in food from France by boat.
Also this deal is the only way of achieving no hard border on the island of Ireland and keeping both Johnson and the EU happy too. If the DUP were given a veto on customs checks in the Irish sea, there would be a hard border in 4 years.

prawnsambo

Christy42 wrote: »

I mean. We called it by a different name if you feel that is a climb down?

The UK can't cancel it. It has to be NI so that worry is gone. There is no time limit on it. It will be out of the customs union.. but have it's laws dictated to it by Brussels with no voice at the table.

And they're insulated from whatever sh1t show develops when eventually the 'mainland' falls off the edge of the transition period. I mean the nutters there are even now conjuring up a 'cunning plan' where they can do this and get their hard brexit. Unless people believe that brexit will actually lead to the sunlit uplands populated by unicorns, the reality of what it actually means will end all talk of following them into he abyss.

CptMackey

What's the play now? Is a no deal no a bigger possibility. Its fierce confusing watching Westminster these days.

prawnsambo

CptMackey wrote: »

What's the play now? Is a no deal no a bigger possibility. Its fierce confusing watching Westminster these days.

Not really. The cunning plan from the headbangers is that they've realised (eventually - I mean this was obvious from the start) that if they don't have a FTA agreed by the end of the TP (and they won't), instead of asking to extend the TP, they just fall out. So concrete brexit at the end of 2020.

prawnsambo

10000maniacs wrote: »

Varadkar was doing his maths.
The last thing Ireland wants is to be shipping in food from France by boat.
Also this deal is the only way of achieving no hard border on the island of Ireland and keeping both Johnson and the EU happy too. If the DUP were given a veto on customs checks in the Irish sea, there would be a hard border in 4 years.

Yeah. We have until the end of 2020 (at least) to get more ships. I'm not really joking here, this is the reality. Develop new markets for our beef and cheese etc. and just use the time to divest ourselves of any and all dependencies on the UK market. Have you looked at the stuff that's appearing on supermarket shelves lately? A lot of continental brands appearing.

brickster69

10000maniacs wrote: »

Varadkar was doing his maths.
The last thing Ireland wants is to be shipping in food from France by boat.
Also this deal is the only way of achieving no hard border on the island of Ireland and keeping both Johnson and the EU happy too. If the DUP were given a veto on customs checks in the Irish sea, there would be a hard border in 4 years.

Varadkar was obviously told what to do for the interests of his bosses. Now he has served his purpose he returns to obscurity

The Rape of Lucretia

brickster69 wrote: »

Varadkar was obviously told what to do for the interests of his bosses. Now he has served his purpose he returns to obscurity

Leo was just a cog in the EU strategy machine. He has no personal role to play other than as a directed executive. A role I would say he plays well though in fairness. The EU MB/DT/JCJ are fully in control of all matters from the EU side. Leo was given a job to do as part of the EU family, so he did it.

Tell me how

brickster69 wrote: »

Varadkar was obviously told what to do for the interests of his bosses. Now he has served his purpose he returns to obscurity

I agree with the first sentence.

He did do what he did for the interests of his bosses. The Irish electorate.
We dont want a hard border or a No Deal Brexit.

Duane Dibbley

brickster69 wrote: »

Varadkar was obviously told what to do for the interests of his bosses. Now he has served his purpose he returns to obscurity

Are you a remainer masquerading as a brexiteer?

Shelga

Just watching the Newsnight special now. Why on earth is Michelle Dewberry, a reality tv show contestant from 13 years ago, constantly invited on. She’s clueless and overly simplistic, and not even famous??

brickster69

Tell me how wrote: »

I agree with the first sentence.

He did do what he did for the interests of his bosses. The Irish electorate.
We dont want a hard border or a No Deal Brexit.

That was obvious from day one but IRE played the big man and now will probably end up with both

FrancieBrady

brickster69 wrote: »

That was obvious from day one but IRE played the big man and now will probably end up with both

What would you have done to 'avoid' both?

Imreoir2

brickster69 wrote: »

Varadkar was obviously told what to do for the interests of his bosses. Now he has served his purpose he returns to obscurity

What part of the last few weeks suggest that Ireland is anything less than a full and equal partner in the EU? Where does this cynical view come from? In the past a small country like Ireland would not even have been invited to participate in discussions between the major powers of Europe. Back in the 19th century or early twentieth century, Germany, France and the UK would have made a decision between them and we would have been informed of the outcome, that is if they did not go to war over their conflicting interests.

Under the EU that is not how things are done, our interests as a small nation have been front and centre, our diplomats have had a crucial role in deciding what happens. Both the UK and the other European states have heard our concerns and have acomodated them. Why are you so against this?

That was obvious from day one but IRE played the big man and now will probably end up with both

Probably not, there has been a clear and consistant majority against a hard border or no deal in the House of Commons, how will it happen, who is going to make it happen? It does not strike me as a credible outcome right now.