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Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Quin_Dub

This is the eleventh incarnation of our Brexit discussion thread,

Same warnings etc still apply:

As we are approaching the critical end of March October 2019 period, please bear the following in mind before posting:
Insults directed at popular figures are not acceptable in this forum
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Duane Dibbley

IMO the EU shouldn’t grant an extension. We have accepted 2 deals now.

Enzokk

schmittel wrote: »

But who decides whether they take it or leave it? Presumably the government. It does not seem like there will be time now to pass a law compelling the government to accept it.

Doesn't matter, if the EU grants the request to the 31st January then Labour can call for a VONC or tell Johnson they are ready to back a new election. If they feel that he will get his deal through they need to think about pulling the chord and fighting the election on his broken promises and their option of a choice on the deal for the people. If he has delivered Brexit he most likely wins a huge majority, Johnson, so the close call today may focus minds of the opposition.

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

Is the choreography ready to roll, that Boris will write requesting a delay until Jan 31st, but the EU will reply with a shorter delay, even down to something like one week or whatever to ensure the passing of the needed legislation. Boris can comeback saying I made the request, it has been turned down, and is only until X, and I stand by my statement that I will no negotiate. So a delay until Nov 7th, or whatever, it is. And he is in the clear on his legal obligation.

I would hope that those that went to the EU from the Remain side were there to convey what they would want to happen. It would be a second referendum on the deal and remain and I doubt the EU would try to sabotage that. The goal and best deal still is for the UK to remain so I doubt the EU will but obstacles in that road.

https://twitter.com/PranMan/status/1184506554512482304?s=20

Itssoeasy

Deleted User wrote: »

Things can always get crazier......

https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/1185561862861135872?s=21

What ? Jesus h Christ and his blessed mammy I give up trying to predict how this will go now. Are the DUP just trying to annoy the conservatives for sport or what ?

Spanish Eyes

There will be so many amendments tabled under Letwin that They will never leave.

Anyone know if there is a limit to amendments.?

I’m afraid UK has made itself a laughing stock of procrastination, and DUP has reaped what it has sown. But I dismiss them as bible thumping idiots who have no thoughts for their Province at all.

Anyway, here we go again....

Professor Genius

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Things can always get crazier......

https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/1185561862861135872?s=21

I did put a few quid on a second referendum in 2019 at 12/1

[Deleted User]

Itssoeasy wrote: »

What ? Jesus h Christ and his blessed mammy I give up trying to predict how this will go now. Are the DUP just trying to annoy the conservatives for sport or what ?

Nigel Dodds did say in the past that he would be a remainer if it meant it protected the Union. Probable DUP thinking here is that any 2nd ref that pitted BJ’s deal against remain, the DUP would opt for remain because they would see it as better in terms of the union.

Harika

Itssoeasy wrote: »

What ? Jesus h Christ and his blessed mammy I give up trying to predict how this will go now. Are the DUP just trying to annoy the conservatives for sport or what ?

When you throw your partner under the bus, this happens

liamtech

Deleted User wrote: »

Things can always get crazier......

https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/1185561862861135872?s=21

They truely can only get even crazier - but the DUP are just crazy enough to decide

-second ref
-Then urge a Brexit Leave vote with no deal

The DUP will never admit that they were wrong to campaign for leave - they never admit mistakes, even one as obvious as this, or supporting BoJo

liamtech

Deleted User wrote: »

Why would they go for no leave Brexit option again though? They are getting flak from their domestic constituency over this. Jumping to remain would be as the tweet suggested a serious piece of revenge on BJ.

I suspect they would have the second ref but urge leave - simply because the DUP could not stand campaigning on the same side as SF, the SDLP, and the Alliance - they would not do that - also to do so would be a tacit admission of guilt, and they would be effectively saying - we were wrong - our unionists competitors and nationalists were right - not gonna happen

also guys

BREAKING NEWS - i know some of you saw it and warned of it but help is on the way

https://theulsterfry.com/politics/bomb-squad-called-to-westminster-to-diffuse-sammy-wilson/

WomanSkirtFan8

Duane Dibbley wrote: »

IMO the EU shouldn’t grant an extension. We have accepted 2 deals now.

I agree and I don't think that the EU are in the mood for granting any extensions but we'll see.

[Deleted User]

Sky News suggesting that the EU could wait until the evening of the 31st to make a decision if an extension is requested.

[Deleted User]

liamtech wrote: »

They truely can only get even crazier - but the DUP are just crazy enough to decide

-second ref
-Then urge a Brexit Leave vote with no deal

The DUP will never admit that they were wrong to campaign for leave - they never admit mistakes, even one as obvious as this, or supporting BoJo

Would they back a no deal Brexit though? Switching to remain. Now THAT would be a serious 2 fingers to BJ......

CarPark2

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Nigel Dodds did say in the past that he would be a remainer if it meant it protected the Union. Probable DUP thinking here is that any 2nd ref that pitted BJ’s deal against remain, the DUP would opt for remain because they would see it as better in terms of the union.

It’s a pity he didn’t think of that during the first referendum. Brexit was always going to hurt the union. He is used to being able to take extreme positions on issues and not facing any consequences. But this time his chickens have come home to roost.

joe40

liamtech wrote: »

They truely can only get even crazier - but the DUP are just crazy enough to decide

-second ref
-Then urge a Brexit Leave vote with no deal

The DUP will never admit that they were wrong to campaign for leave - they never admit mistakes, even one as obvious as this, or supporting BoJo

The DUP deserve everything they got but the way they were treated by Boris just shows how untrustworthy a politician he is.
I'm surprised more hasn't been made of his blatant u turn he made in relation to this deal and his speech to the DUP conference a short time ago.
I know all politicians say what is expedient at the time but Boris has brought this to new levels. Totally untrustworthy and some seem to think it is a strength.

Joe_ Public

Professor Genius wrote: »

I did put a few quid on a second referendum in 2019 at 12/1

Dead money im afraid. I backed it at 25/1 some time back forgetting you need minimum 4-5 months to hold one, so no chance at all until new year at earliest.

liamtech

joe40 wrote: »

The DUP deserve everything they got but the way they were treated by Boris just shows how untrustworthy a politician he is.
I'm surprised more hasn't been made of his blatant u turn he made in relation to this deal and his speech to the DUP conference a short time ago.
I know all politicians say what is expedient at the time but Boris has brought this to new levels. Totally untrustworthy and some seem to think it is a strength.

“Diplomacy is the art of telling people to go to hell in such a way that they ask for directions.” Winston Churchill

Yea i agree they were treated shamefully - but what other options do they have?

They wont go back on their stance on Brexit in general (even if there is a second ref - too damaging an acknowledgement of their real priorities)

They can hardly support corbyn/labor, as he has history of being more pro nationalist when it comes to NI and the 'precious union'

They have no one else to talk to - its the conservatives/erg, or they go to Westminster and sit in the corner shouting no surrender and other such nonsense

Joe_ Public

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Sky News suggesting that the EU could wait until the evening of the 31st to make a decision if an extension is requested.

Game changer if it happened. Means they could bring back bill with a question mark over extension hanging over it which might concentrate a few more minds. Opposition might have to think about vonc in that scenario but not guaranteed to win it which sounds crazy when you consider this administration but thats where we are.

FrancieBrady

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Game changer if it happened. Means they could bring back bill with a question mark over extension hanging over it which might concentrate a few more minds. Opposition might have to think about vonc in that scenario but not guaranteed to win it which sounds crazy when you consider this administration but thats where we are.

And the EU stands accused forever of intefereing directly.

Not going to happen. I think the EU were far too open all through this to granting extensions.

Had they not had the comfort blanket of certainty on that, it might have focused them a bit.

liamtech

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Game changer if it happened. Means they could bring back bill with a question mark over extension hanging over it which might concentrate a few more minds. Opposition might have to think about vonc in that scenario but not guaranteed to win it which sounds crazy when you consider this administration but thats where we are.

That would be the case - IF!

the HOC had not just voted for an amendment that effectively shelves accepting of a deal until all the fine-print/legislation is in place - The Letwin amendment prevents accepting a deal until the necessary legislation is in place

I agree its a wreckless move by the EU (although GOD I FEEL FOR EM) but i think Letwin could be the deer in the headlines of this

BUt i imagine its nonsense anyway so - we just have to wait and see

Rjd2

Pretty ****ing grim the people roaring abuse at Mogg with his son and Diane Abbot among others. Neither side showing much class outside whatsoever.

Strazdas

FrancieBrady wrote: »

And the EU stands accused forever of intefereing directly.

Not going to happen. I think the EU were far too open all through this to granting extensions.

Had they not had the comfort blanket of certainty on that, it might have focused them a bit.

Nobody could have anticipated how indecisive and shambolic the UK Parliament would be.

Itssoeasy

Rjd2 wrote: »

Pretty ****ing grim the people roaring abuse at Mogg with his son and Diane Abbot among others. Neither side showing much class outside whatsoever.

Where outside parliament ? Well Diane abbot seems to get dogs abuse a lot anyway. I think the lack of class is linked the fatigue over this whole thing. People on both sides seem genuinely pissed off and acting in a way that isn't rational.

FrancieBrady

John Bercow wrote:

The govt is not the arbiter of what is orderly. That cannot be so,. And it is not so. And it will not be so. And there can be no argument about that."

Are we now waiting on a decision from Bercow? What happens next?

Joe_ Public

liamtech wrote: »

That would be the case - IF!
the HOC had not just voted for an amendment that effectively shelves accepting of a deal until all the fine-print/legislation is in place - The Letwin amendment prevents accepting a deal until the necessary legislation is in place

I agree its a wreckless move by the EU (although GOD I FEEL FOR EM) but i think Letwin could be the deer in the headlines of this

BUt i imagine its nonsense anyway so - we just have to wait and see

It could be nonsense, it was just a flyer from sky eu correspondent though he is obviously speaking to his sources so who knows? Heard it a couple of other places too, will only believe it when i see it all the same.

Does letwin preclude them from bringing back mv on monday? Not sure it does. They can rush the legislation through very quickly and depends then how opposition go about counter measures. All very speculative it has to be said.

liamtech

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Are we now waiting on a decision from Bercow? What happens next?

I think so - im not sure its kinda hard to follow

What is true is that there are bound to be many more days like this in the next 2 weeks!

Same time same place guys!

Rjd2

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Where outside parliament ? Well Diane abbot seems to get dogs abuse a lot anyway. I think the lack of class is linked the fatigue over this whole thing. People on both sides seem genuinely pissed off and acting in a way that isn't rational.

https://twitter.com/TomBoadle/status/1185571697090531328

https://twitter.com/39_stephs/status/1185571331980566530

I know some are saying Mogg bringing his kid is cynical, but still leave him alone.

Abbot is a poor politician but the abuse she gets is so unpleasant and relentless. I do fear some day some loon will try and attack her. Obviously hope I am wrong.

Itssoeasy

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Are we now waiting on a decision from Bercow? What happens next?

He said he's going to get advice and make a statement sometime Monday afternoon.

marno21

It doesn't surprise me that people are hostile towards a gentleman intent on wrecking his country in the pursuit of the personal gain and those of his chums.

Joe_ Public

Very regrettable scenes. But you'll always get a few outliers unable to maintain the high moral ground.

McGiver

Enzokk wrote:

Well they cannot do anything without approval from Westminster so even if they organized a vote and it was 80%-20% for independence, unless they have the approval from the PM they are stuck in the Union.

I know that, but they could ramp up the rhetoric, significantly. They could filibuster as well. Many options. They're just ranting and the Tories know that they won't do it anything else and simply ignore them. Time to remove the gloves ihmo.