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Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Quin_Dub

This is the eleventh incarnation of our Brexit discussion thread,

Same warnings etc still apply:

As we are approaching the critical end of March October 2019 period, please bear the following in mind before posting:
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J Mysterio

The other thing about resolving the 'Irish question' now is that, currently, the DUP seem to have lost all goodwill among all and sundry throughout these islands and beyond.

In that context, its the perfect time to find a solution for NI going forward as:

- the DUP are seen as unreasonable and unlikeable, which is a largely accurate representation
- Irish issues re the border and NI are reasonably widely understood (perhaps for first time ever)
- the UK are distracted and many see NI as a problem to be dealt with so more important matters can be addressed.
- Ireland are now seen as having reasonable concerns and have facilitated the UK in their wish, opening compromise and goodwill from UK

NI has to move forward and there may never be a better opportunity to start to work towards a better, more workable situation.

Enzokk

PokeHerKing wrote: »

No I meant didn't May end up voting against her own deal at some point?

It was an amendment I think, that a change was made to it and the government went from supporting it to opposing their own motion. It wasn't her deal though but you are right she did have to oppose her own motion/deal/amendment.

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Headline merely picks out something he clearly stated in article so i wouldnt say its in any way misleading tbh. But i guess carney isnt in a great position as regards flexibility. Swing too far either direction and he'll be accused of bias either way so he does have to be measured in all he says. So i'd give him a pass here to be fair, though the global comment still reads like over indulged fantasy to me.

I didn't know how to phrase it, it is misleading in that it reads as if this deal will lead the recovery for the world when what it actually means the certainty this deal provides should allow the UK economy to start recovering and this would help the world economy as the struggling UK economy is one reason why everywhere else is a little sluggish.

bilston

Johnny Dogs wrote: »

So the loyalists are remainers now, yeah?

They are probably starting to come to that realisation. I've said before I'd love to know what went on the meeting the DUP had to decide which way to swing on Brexit. Did they at any point weigh up the risks? Clearly not.

Tea Shock

J Mysterio wrote: »

Should the deal pass, I will remain an interested observer, but it will then be mostly a British problem and not a huge problem for Ireland and Britain.

Well it’ll still be a huge problem for Irish exporters & importers especially the agri food sector if no FTA is reached afterwards

And they have no intention of paying the divorce bill. Don’t lose sight of what a pack of cowboys the Johnson government is!

Varta

Shelga wrote: »

Ok. Have had a couple of days to digest this. I admit, at first it flashed through my mind that maybe they should just vote for it to move this torture forward at least.

But the deal is dire. It is worse in every single way than remaining in the EU. They still have to pay the divorce bill, something Johnson rubbished repeatedly. It takes Britain out of the single market and customs union- disastrous for businesses and manufacturing. By the Home Secretary’s own admission, it abolishes UK citizens’ rights to live and work in 27 EU countries.

Any Labour MP who votes for this needs to immediately lose the whip. History will also judge them harshly. They need to face down the anger of their horribly misinformed constituents (that description is being kind) and try to educate them- beyond that, accept that they won’t be re-elected.

So what, if it means they didn’t facilitate a horrific Tory deal that will lead to a crash out in a year anyway.

Reverse democracy, totalitarianism, elitism... some remainers really don't like democracy. If I were British I would be a remainer, but I would be embarrassed by some of the sh*t I hear from the remain side.

Varta

Enzokk wrote: »

I think if Letwin passes it states that legislation has to go through first so the deal itself cannot pass today. It just means everything is delayed until they get legislation done which with the numbers in the HoC means a lot of changes to the deal and could mean in the end Johnson voting against his own deal if they attach amendments to it that he doesn't like.

What a spectacle that would be.

And you really believe that the EU is just going to allow that sh*t show to continue by granting more extensions?

Hurrache

LeinsterDub wrote: »

https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1185469033589739520

If they pull the vote it give more time for the details to be examined. The lies they've told both sides of the Tory party to emerge. It's now or never if you ask me

I think so, momentum seemed to be going with them going into last night anyway. It's a crap show today.

Capt'n Midnight

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

Somehow I doubt this will be the Ulster Workers' Council strike 2.0

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/attachment.php?attachmentid=493294&stc=1&d=1571434878
twitter.com/dempster7/status/1185297459137990656"]twitter.com/dempster7

Back then one tribe had all the good jobs. Nowadays half the people up there don't subscribe to either tribe.

Thanks to interconnectors, wind, and private power stations it would be very difficult to arrange similar power cuts. Same with internet and satellite TV bypassing post and the local media.

Besides the workers from the big power stations, Harland and Wolfe, Bombarder and Wrightbus know that if they go on strike over this the owners might just cut the life support and cut their losses.

J Mysterio

Tea Shock wrote: »

Well it’ll still be a huge problem for Irish exporters & importers especially the agri food sector

And they have no intention of paying the divorce bill. Don’t lose sight of what a pack of cowboys the Johnson government is!

I'm not losing sight of that at all, in any way. I'm acutely aware of what they are like.

It's as I have said - never before have Ireland/ NI issues been so widely understood and appreciated and never again will it be so important to the UK to find a solution for NI/ Ireland.

If it's not done now, when will it be done?
If the UK cancel Brexit and remain, what happens to NI then? Carry on as before?

UK are in trouble no matter what happens. Have Brexit and they are fucķed, don't have Brexit and they are in big trouble also. They have let the genie out of the bottle, society is fractious as hell and faith in politics is hugely undermined (due to their own rash actions).

I am being selfish wanting NI/ Ireland situation resolved, but this does seem to offer a workable, lasting solution.

There is still the argument that Britain now needs Brexit to happen so they can recognise their true position in the world in the 21st century... and then come back to the EU family. I think that's reasonable to an extent, as the delusion is monumental.

Something needs to happen to 'bring the country together again'. And 'the country' in this context is probably basically England and Wales - Scotland will surely leave within five years.

Shelga

Varta wrote: »

Reverse democracy, totalitarianism, elitism... some remainers really don't like democracy. If I were British I would be a remainer, but I would be embarrassed by some of the sh*t I hear from the remain side.

A majority of Remain MPs would vote for a deal that didn’t trash the economy for generations. That they have not been presented with that yet is not their fault.

LeinsterDub

Varta wrote: »

And you really believe that the EU is just going to allow that sh*t show to continue by granting more extensions?

Fundamentally the EU want the UK to stay. I can see an extension till at least January being accepted. Let them have their GE and see how the chips lie then

devnull

According to Sky

A Number 10 source says: "If Letwin passes, [EU Council President Donald] Tusk will be given a copy of Parliament’s letter but we will continue to say to European leaders and everyone else ’get Brexit done on 31 October with our new deal, no delays’.

"The PM will not ask for or negotiate delay."

The wording is very interesting there, it suggests he will give Tusk the letter from Parliament but it will be attached to something else rather than him sending the letter himself.

Joe_ Public

Varta wrote: »

And you really believe that the EU is just going to allow that sh*t show to continue by granting more extensions?

Merkel quoted this mornings papers saying they will very likely give extension. That all but settles issue for me really.

MarinersBlues

bilston wrote: »

They are probably starting to come to that realisation. I've said before I'd love to know what went on the meeting the DUP had to decide which way to swing on Brexit. Did they at any point weigh up the risks? Clearly not.

Whenever I picture them deciding remain or leave I see:
a large community centre with the two words written on a board, they spend 30 seconds choosing which one sounds most like "NO!"

FrancieBrady

Any recent polling of numbers?

Shelga

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Any recent polling of numbers?

Laura Kuenssberg has latest numbers as 310 for, 302 against, with 27 undecided.

Itssoeasy

Shelga wrote: »

Laura Kuenssberg has latest numbers as 310 for, 302 against, with 27 undecided.

So he needs ten of those twenty seven to get the deal passed ?

briany

Itssoeasy wrote: »

So he needs ten of those twenty seven to get the deal passed ?

The DUP are going to be laughing their heads off if the deal loses by 20 votes.

Itssoeasy

briany wrote: »

The DUP are going to be laughing their heads off if the deal loses by 20 votes.

The DUP are familiar with the concept of laughter and just happiness in general ?

Shelga

Itssoeasy wrote: »

So he needs ten of those twenty seven to get the deal passed ?

Yes, 320 votes for the deal and it passes.

Enzokk

Varta wrote: »

And you really believe that the EU is just going to allow that sh*t show to continue by granting more extensions?

I think the EU will want to avoid no-deal, if that means extensions then extensions will be given as long as its asked for.

splinter65

Shelga wrote: »

Yes, 320 votes for the deal and it passes.

Please god let it happen I can’t take any more. How can I get back all the time I’ve spent on this and how did it get so addictive?

Itssoeasy

So according to sky news the exchanges between the DUP and Boris wasn’t pleasant. That relationship seems broken.

lola85

splinter65 wrote: »

Please god let it happen I can’t take any more. How can I get back all the time I’ve spent on this and how did it get so addictive?

Is only the beginning.

About another ten years of negotiations before they properly exit.

Pedro K

I feel like a broken record in this thread asking this yet again, but does anybody know what time the big votes are to be?

Thanks in advance.

Varta

Shelga wrote: »

A majority of Remain MPs would vote for a deal that didn’t trash the economy for generations. That they have not been presented with that yet is not their fault.

But it is their fault. Where did they present this magical deal? Did they take out full pages ads in newspapers outlining it? Did they get together cross-party to discuss the details of it? No and no. They didn't do that because they don't want any deal. They are gambling on brexit falling through. Therefore, if it doesn't fall through, they will have to live with whatever deal the brexiters push through. Every MP in the HoC has behaved shamefully.

Varta

Enzokk wrote: »

I think the EU will want to avoid no-deal, if that means extensions then extensions will be given as long as its asked for.

Pure fantasy.

GM228

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Merkel quoted this mornings papers saying they will very likely give extension. That all but settles issue for me really.

And I believe Macron was quoted yesterday as saying there will be no extension, but I tend to go with Merkel, her statement would carry more weight I think.

CelticRambler

Just listening to Johnson's statement to the House (am a little bit behind). So many references to "our European friends" - five or six, so far - when only a few weeks ago he was ranting about "surrender" to these same Europeans.

It's also striking how the Johnson (and others) are talking about this as an "excellent" deal. Any normal person would recognise that after three years of difficult negotiations, the resulting deal would rarely be better than "satisfactory" or "the best that could realistically be expected". The attitude on the EU side comes across as more genuine. Whenever anyone tries to pass something off as "great" or "excellent" you can usually be sure that there's something dodgy about it ...

GM228

Varta wrote: »

Pure fantasy.

Why is it fantasy that the EU would want to avoid a no deal? It's in nobody's interest to have no deal.