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Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Quin_Dub

This is the eleventh incarnation of our Brexit discussion thread,

Same warnings etc still apply:

As we are approaching the critical end of March October 2019 period, please bear the following in mind before posting:
Insults directed at popular figures are not acceptable in this forum
Please do not post memes, videos or comedy links here
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bilston

Johnny Dogs wrote: »

So the loyalists are remainers now, yeah?

They are probably starting to come to that realisation. I've said before I'd love to know what went on the meeting the DUP had to decide which way to swing on Brexit. Did they at any point weigh up the risks? Clearly not.

Enzokk

PokeHerKing wrote: »

No I meant didn't May end up voting against her own deal at some point?

It was an amendment I think, that a change was made to it and the government went from supporting it to opposing their own motion. It wasn't her deal though but you are right she did have to oppose her own motion/deal/amendment.

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Headline merely picks out something he clearly stated in article so i wouldnt say its in any way misleading tbh. But i guess carney isnt in a great position as regards flexibility. Swing too far either direction and he'll be accused of bias either way so he does have to be measured in all he says. So i'd give him a pass here to be fair, though the global comment still reads like over indulged fantasy to me.

I didn't know how to phrase it, it is misleading in that it reads as if this deal will lead the recovery for the world when what it actually means the certainty this deal provides should allow the UK economy to start recovering and this would help the world economy as the struggling UK economy is one reason why everywhere else is a little sluggish.

J Mysterio

The other thing about resolving the 'Irish question' now is that, currently, the DUP seem to have lost all goodwill among all and sundry throughout these islands and beyond.

In that context, its the perfect time to find a solution for NI going forward as:

- the DUP are seen as unreasonable and unlikeable, which is a largely accurate representation
- Irish issues re the border and NI are reasonably widely understood (perhaps for first time ever)
- the UK are distracted and many see NI as a problem to be dealt with so more important matters can be addressed.
- Ireland are now seen as having reasonable concerns and have facilitated the UK in their wish, opening compromise and goodwill from UK

NI has to move forward and there may never be a better opportunity to start to work towards a better, more workable situation.

Joe_ Public

PokeHerKing wrote: »

No I meant didn't May end up voting against her own deal at some point?

I think what you might be getting at is she said shed resign if they passed it which was a pretty surreal position to take. Brexit - anything goes.

Joe_ Public

Enzokk wrote: »

The headline is a little misleading, but not deliberately. Passing this deal will mean that the UK economy can start recovering, but if they were to remain then he would state that it would be ten times better than the deal negotiated. Its just this deal gives them certainty and that is better than the mess there was since Johnson was elected, so in that respect he is right. But it is still worse than if they were to revoke.

Headline merely picks out something he clearly stated in article so i wouldnt say its in any way misleading tbh. But i guess carney isnt in a great position as regards flexibility. Swing too far either direction and he'll be accused of bias either way so he does have to be measured in all he says. So i'd give him a pass here to be fair, though the global comment still reads like over indulged fantasy to me.

LeinsterDub

https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1185469033589739520

If they pull the vote it give more time for the details to be examined. The lies they've told both sides of the Tory party to emerge. It's now or never if you ask me

PokeHerKing

Enzokk wrote: »

May had the obstacle that she couldn't keep bringing her deal back unchanged for votes so she toyed with the idea of getting the legislation done before the meaningful vote. It was a way for her to try and get people to study her deal to see the benefits, this would be the opposite, give them time to study it to see how bad it is for everyone but the ERG.

Same tactic for different reasons.

No I meant didn't May end up voting against her own deal at some point?

Enzokk

PokeHerKing wrote: »

Didn't May already do that? What is they say about the definition of insanity...

May had the obstacle that she couldn't keep bringing her deal back unchanged for votes so she toyed with the idea of getting the legislation done before the meaningful vote. It was a way for her to try and get people to study her deal to see the benefits, this would be the opposite, give them time to study it to see how bad it is for everyone but the ERG.

Same tactic for different reasons.

Enzokk

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Mark Carney: Brexit deal will boost flagging global economy

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/oct/18/mark-carney-brexit-deal-will-boost-flagging-global-economy?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

Does this strike people as a truly independent position from BoE governor? Carries whiff of government mouthpiece to me. Suggesting the uk is going to lead us all out of global recession post-brexit! Not even the toriest of tories could come out with guff like that with a straight face.

The headline is a little misleading, but not deliberately. Passing this deal will mean that the UK economy can start recovering, but if they were to remain then he would state that it would be ten times better than the deal negotiated. Its just this deal gives them certainty and that is better than the mess there was since Johnson was elected, so in that respect he is right. But it is still worse than if they were to revoke.

PokeHerKing

Enzokk wrote: »

I think if Letwin passes it states that legislation has to go through first so the deal itself cannot pass today. It just means everything is delayed until they get legislation done which with the numbers in the HoC means a lot of changes to the deal and could mean in the end Johnson voting against his own deal if they attach amendments to it that he doesn't like.

What a spectacle that would be.

Didn't May already do that? What is they say about the definition of insanity...

J Mysterio

Its definitely true that as the deal works for Ireland, many of us will take that and let the UK worry about it from there.

But it's also true that the deal is awful for the UK, and it's right that Remainers/ Revokers/ sensible people in the UK vote this down at all costs.

There has been a funny alliance between Irish people generally, and Remainers where we have 'worked together' to stop the madness, but as we are now 'sorted', we are 'out'. This can be quite plainly observed online. But we have worried about Brexit - an English nationalist wet dream - for years and so we can't be blamed for looking after no. 1 now.

It's true that now the sea border is proferred, it is precedent, but it's also true that it can't be relied upon as being a consistent position from the UK as things are so changeable. In that context, many would want this deal passed now to lock in the Irish provisions, myself included.

Should the deal pass, I will remain an interested observer, but it will then be mostly a British problem and not a huge problem for Ireland and Britain.

Enzokk

RickBlaine wrote: »

If the Letwin is passed and then the deal is passed, does that just basically postpone actually voting for the deal until another day?

I think if Letwin passes it states that legislation has to go through first so the deal itself cannot pass today. It just means everything is delayed until they get legislation done which with the numbers in the HoC means a lot of changes to the deal and could mean in the end Johnson voting against his own deal if they attach amendments to it that he doesn't like.

What a spectacle that would be.

Joe_ Public

Mark Carney: Brexit deal will boost flagging global economy

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/oct/18/mark-carney-brexit-deal-will-boost-flagging-global-economy?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

Does this strike people as a truly independent position from BoE governor? Carries whiff of government mouthpiece to me. Suggesting the uk is going to lead us all out of global recession post-brexit! Not even the toriest of tories could come out with guff like that with a straight face.

Enzokk

woohoo!!! wrote: »

Most informed observers think it's going to fail, but narrowly. The EU will give an extension, with stages built in. I read that France have indicated that March is the furthest date. There isn't enough time for a referendum and I don't think a GE can be held off for much longer.

From our perspective a hard border has been defined and in the only place it can be, the Irish sea, whether this deal or some subsequent one. David Lammy has correctly identified that the only reason to leave the SM and CU is the intention to drop standards in order for Britain to compete with the EU. We'd be more sympathetic but remainers are now wibbling about NI being thrown away and creating in effect a UI, so we've a leave em at it attitude.

The EU will give the extension the UK requires. If there is an amendment that the deal is accepted but a confirmatory referendum is needed, do we really think the EU will scupper this by not allowing an extension long enough for this to happen? There will be grumbling from France and other nations but that is just playing politics.

As for this deal being good for Ireland, let us not forget that our closest neighbour is still the UK and even if the deal is better for us in that it avoids a border if it weakens the UK economically (their own choice) we will be worse off. This is the better than no-deal, but that doesn't mean it is a good deal for us.

RickBlaine

If the Letwin is passed and then the deal is passed, does that just basically postpone actually voting for the deal until another day?

Shelga

Also, while the UK is still in the EU, there is some hope, however small, of remaining. Wouldn’t you want to think that you fought to the end to do the right thing.

Shelga

Ok. Have had a couple of days to digest this. I admit, at first it flashed through my mind that maybe they should just vote for it to move this torture forward at least.

But the deal is dire. It is worse in every single way than remaining in the EU. They still have to pay the divorce bill, something Johnson rubbished repeatedly. It takes Britain out of the single market and customs union- disastrous for businesses and manufacturing. By the Home Secretary’s own admission, it abolishes UK citizens’ rights to live and work in 27 EU countries.

Any Labour MP who votes for this needs to immediately lose the whip. History will also judge them harshly. They need to face down the anger of their horribly misinformed constituents (that description is being kind) and try to educate them- beyond that, accept that they won’t be re-elected.

So what, if it means they didn’t facilitate a horrific Tory deal that will lead to a crash out in a year anyway.

J Mysterio

10000maniacs wrote: »

Poor old Nigel Dodds on Radio 4 this morning cut off mid rant by a sore eared Mishal Hussain.
He was going on about losing the Unionist veto and Leo Varadkar.
He's now indignant about Varadkar insulting the DUP about the Queen and letterboxes.
Yet the DUP answer to food shortages is to "go to the chippy".

Its such a ridiculous position to hold - we need a Unionist veto. We need to have the final say. You can see why they dont like the GFA. These guys are always insulted.

woohoo!!!

beggars_bush wrote: »

All goes out the window today when it's voted down in the HOC

Most informed observers think it's going to fail, but narrowly. The EU will give an extension, with stages built in. I read that France have indicated that March is the furthest date. There isn't enough time for a referendum and I don't think a GE can be held off for much longer.

From our perspective a hard border has been defined and in the only place it can be, the Irish sea, whether this deal or some subsequent one. David Lammy has correctly identified that the only reason to leave the SM and CU is the intention to drop standards in order for Britain to compete with the EU. We'd be more sympathetic but remainers are now wibbling about NI being thrown away and creating in effect a UI, so we've a leave em at it attitude.

thecretinhop

Tea Shock wrote: »

Mr.Wemmick wrote: »

Labour MPs need to get on the right side of history today. They will never be forgiven for fallen into Johnson's trap and need look past the ignorant baying brexit mobs. The country is being destroyed by the toxic tory sh!tshow, and it's time they were stopped.[\QUOTE]

Brexit is going to happen. There’s little doubt about that. It’s a good thing for Ireland if this gets passed so I hope it does. After that, Johnson needs an election result to go overwhelmingly in his favour in order for his supposed elaborate trap to bear fruit. That’s not a certainty

100pc. its unreal to see the squirming from never brexiters... not right deal,vote again, now a bullsht amendment which will water it down to nothing.
stop guffing and admit some people do not want any deal at any costs.

Tea Shock

Mr.Wemmick wrote: »

Labour MPs need to get on the right side of history today. They will never be forgiven for fallen into Johnson's trap and need look past the ignorant baying brexit mobs. The country is being destroyed by the toxic tory sh!tshow, and it's time they were stopped.[\QUOTE]

Brexit is going to happen. There’s little doubt about that. It’s a good thing for Ireland if this gets passed so I hope it does. After that, Johnson needs an election result to go overwhelmingly in his favour in order for his supposed elaborate trap to bear fruit. That’s not a certainty

beggars_bush

woohoo!!! wrote: »

The DUP are the reason a United Ireland will happen. It's a wierd one how quickly things shift in perceptions. Johnson from Irish eyes is now seem more positively, the border in the sea is settled. UK remainers coming out with the deal facilitates a UI, we didn't vote for that/give NI away are coming into focus as the new enemy. The unicorns are on all sides. The overwhelming feeling from Ireland is just sign the damm thing and go away chasing bigly trade deals.

All goes out the window today when it's voted down in the HOC

woohoo!!!

The DUP are the reason a United Ireland will happen. It's a wierd one how quickly things shift in perceptions. Johnson from Irish eyes is now seem more positively, the border in the sea is settled. UK remainers coming out with the deal facilitates a UI, we didn't vote for that/give NI away are coming into focus as the new enemy. The unicorns are on all sides. The overwhelming feeling from Ireland is just sign the damm thing and go away chasing bigly trade deals.

murphaph

10000maniacs wrote: »

Poor old Nigel Dodds on Radio 4 this morning cut off mid rant by a sore eared Mishal Hussain.
He was going on about losing the Unionist veto and Leo Varadkar.
He's now indignant about Varadkar insulting the DUP about the Queen and letterboxes.
Yet the DUP answer to food shortages is to "go to the chippy".

They can give it but they can't take it and Varadkar wasn't even trying to wind them up. They took him up that way because they are perpetually in siege mentality mode. It's really boring and predictable.

There is IMO no scenario apart from revoke which doesn't accelerate the coming about of a UI. The DUP have spectacularly failed in their primary mission. Without Brexit I doubt any of us would have seen a UI in our lifetimes. Now, all bets are off.

10000maniacs

Poor old Nigel Dodds on Radio 4 this morning cut off mid rant by a sore eared Mishal Hussain.
He was going on about losing the Unionist veto and Leo Varadkar.
He's now indignant about Varadkar insulting the DUP about the Queen and letterboxes.
Yet the DUP answer to food shortages is to "go to the chippy".

Mr.Wemmick

Labour MPs need to get on the right side of history today. They will never be forgiven for fallen into Johnson's trap and need look past the ignorant baying brexit mobs. The country is being destroyed by the toxic tory sh!tshow, and it's time they were stopped.

Any progress to date has been brought about by Ireland and the EU. Without the EU, the UK will destroy itself. The tory party has not a clue how to unite folks, invite honest open debate, just toxic games which threaten democracy and serve the rich elite.

Anna Soubry called it right when she said: this deal will get a five hour debate without any independent assessments, analysis or select committee scrutiny of the most important set of decisions we will make in generations.

'Tis no wonder she left the Tory Party.

Joe_ Public

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

Yeah, Hoey has announced herself as a No Vote. I don't think its a surprise though as she voted against Mays deal as well, despite voting Tory on seemingly everything else.
So its not a bonus vote on the count or anything.

Would be good to get one or two people who voted yes previously to announce no, just to turn the tide a little.

Hammond maybe the best hope there, doubt youll get any tory who hadnt lost whip declaring against it. Numbers still look against to my mind, 5 lab rebels already potentially but they probably need twice that im thinking.

ArmaniJeanss

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Yes, thats what it was about and now they see that not a viable option ever so the status quo of remain got to be next best thing. They still got critical 10 votes so very interesting to see how that might swing things down the line. Wonder too whether Kate Hoey might stay with them and actually vote with her party this time for once!

Yeah, Hoey has announced herself as a No Vote. I don't think its a surprise though as she voted against Mays deal as well, despite voting Tory on seemingly everything else.
So its not a bonus vote on the count or anything.

Would be good to get one or two people who voted yes previously to announce no, just to turn the tide a little.

Joe_ Public

The high horse brigade wrote: »

Yes looks like all the DUP wanted was to use the influence they felt they had to try force a border in Ireland

Yes, thats what it was about and now they see that not a viable option ever so the status quo of remain got to be next best thing. They still got critical 10 votes so very interesting to see how that might swing things down the line. Wonder too whether Kate Hoey might stay with them and actually vote with her party this time for once!

The high horse brigade

Yes looks like all the DUP wanted was to use the influence they felt they had to try force a border in Ireland