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Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Quin_Dub

This is the eleventh incarnation of our Brexit discussion thread,

Same warnings etc still apply:

As we are approaching the critical end of March October 2019 period, please bear the following in mind before posting:
Insults directed at popular figures are not acceptable in this forum
Please do not post memes, videos or comedy links here
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Varta

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Worth remembering all the May votes were preceded with predictions of big numbers of labour rebels and most you ended up with was 5 i think. You never know but i wouldnt get carried away this time either.

I imagine you are sitting with your fingers crossed Joe, but this time I think it really is different. This time it really is "Let's get this done".

MrMusician18

Varta wrote: »

I imagine you are sitting with your fingers crossed Joe, but this time I think it really is different. This time it really is "Let's get this done".

Johnson does seem to have a bit of momentum behind him at the moment but the longer this goes on the more likely it is that the MPs he's hoping for get cold feet.

Does look like he'll get the numbers though.

We are heading towards no deal in 2020...

Mezcita

Varta wrote: »

I imagine you are sitting with your fingers crossed Joe, but this time I think it really is different. This time it really is "Let's get this done".

Hardly. If the EU had said that they were unwilling to offer an extension then it would really be ''Let's get this done"' time.

As is if they vote it down the can gets kicked down the road once again. The EU could simply keep on offering extensions for years.

CelticRambler

Tea Shock wrote: »

https://twitter.com/JaneyGodley/status/1185161142617985024

This is what we've been dealing with folks!

Ignoring his adulation of Johnson, he is undoubtedly the perfect representation of "the British" with which the capital-U Unionists identify.

Tea Shock wrote: »

But after all this time, he STILL has zero understanding of the significance of "that one issue" and appears to have the perception that the DUP are on the same side as the EU and even possibly that the DUP want a United Ireland!

On the contrary: he understands perfectly that, as a British Englishman, his country is being told what to do and how to do it by a bunch of cantankerous Irishmen. It doesn't matter one iota to him - and by extension to the rest of his kind in England - how the DUP & Co. care to identifty themselves, in his eyes they are not part of Britain and should get on with life on their own island without interfering with his. That's a perfectly reasonable position to adopt.

Shelga

So are they voting on the Letwin amendment tomorrow? And if that passes, there’ll be no vote on the deal?

thecretinhop

anyone any idea when it starts how long etc when is vote?

CarPark2

Mezcita wrote: »

Hardly. If the EU had said that they were unwilling to offer an extension then it would really be ''Let's get this done"' time.

As if if they vote it down the can gets kicked down the road once again. The EU could simply keep on offering extensions for years.

I think the point is that voters are tired of this issue and want it sorted. This is a reasonable way to sort it (as was May's deal). With either a three month extension or a deal, there is likely to be an election soon, and many MPs will prefer to have an election on issues like housing, jobs, services etc. rather than Brexit. Especially in Leave constituencies, MPs will be reluctant to face the electorate having blocked a deal that would allow Brexit to happen.

LuckyLloyd

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Johnson does seem to have a bit of momentum behind him at the moment but the longer this goes on the more likely it is that the MPs he's hoping for get cold feet.

Does look like he'll get the numbers though.

We are heading towards no deal in 2020...

No Deal in 2020 with the front stop in place will be much less impactful from an Irish perspective. Let them go with that if they like, but they’ll be back at the negotiating table in short order except this time we aren’t in play as a bargaining chip

Varta

Mezcita wrote: »

Hardly. If the EU had said that they were unwilling to offer an extension then it would really be ''Let's get this done"' time.

As is if they vote it down the can gets kicked down the road once again. The EU could simply keep on offering extensions for years.

You can't deny that there is a real momentum now. It's just a question of for how long it can be sustained. If he doesn't get it through on Saturday it will grind to a halt again and Brexit will be a dead duck. Everything hangs on Saturday.

Hurrache

Tea Shock wrote: »

A special present for anyone who missed this absolute nugget!

https://twitter.com/JaneyGodley/status/1185161142617985024

This is what we've been dealing with folks!

He's become a bit infamous ever since
[url]

https://twitter.com/Ciaraioch/status/1185119634531508229?s=19[/url]

Call me Al

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

FT reporting Boris probably now has majority of one...

https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1185181280100585478

I suspect more weak Labour MPs will be picked off too...

Is that with the DUP abstaining or voting no?

Kermit.de.frog

It's with DUP voting against I assume.

Professor Moriarty

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Another Labour switch to the deal

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1185180698321309696

A lot of Labour MPs are in strong leave constituencies.

Always worth remembering.

But what is important is that most Labour voters are pro-Remain - 70% Remain and 21% Leave.

Interestingly and more importantly, in Leave seats, a majority of Labour voters would vote remain today - 65% Remain and 25% Leave.

This creates a serious dilemma for Labour MPs in Leave constiuencies

SharpshooterTom

Let them have a no deal and make the tories own it. There shouldn't be any Labour fingerprints on this debacle. If any Labour MP's are brainless enough to vote for this crap in helping assissting the tories, the party will go like the way of Lib Dems did in 2015 when they assissted the tories in austerity cuts and student tuition hikes following the 2008/09 crash. It wasn't the tories who got the blame for that at the ballot box.

Zubeneschamali

CarPark2 wrote: »

I think the point is that voters are tired of this issue and want it sorted.

Voting for this deal will not get anything "sorted", it will just start 10 years of national humiliation in trade talks, with regular shouting and roaring by Brexiteers about treachery, bullying, WTO terms and GATT24.

It will allow Johnson to claim an historic victory in all the papers and perhaps win the next election. Unclear why any Labour MP would vote for that, but it has become evident that the HoC is not full of rocket scientists.

Joe_ Public

Varta wrote: »

I imagine you are sitting with your fingers crossed Joe, but this time I think it really is different. This time it really is "Let's get this done".

Not really tbh, im only an observer interested in seeing how it goes. Its very difficult to call, even a chsnce id say of no vote at all tomorrow. Lot of stuff thst can happen yet.

J Mysterio

Should know better, but I decided to put a few euro down on the vote passing.

Joe_ Public

Shelga wrote: »

So are they voting on the Letwin amendment tomorrow? And if that passes, there’ll be no vote on the deal?

Bercow has to allow it but think he will. I think there might be a vote but pm will have to seek extension regardless. Im not sure exactly how clear it is yet.

Varta

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Not really tbh, im only an observer interested in seeing how it goes. Its very difficult to call, even a chsnce id say of no vote at all tomorrow. Lot of stuff thst can happen yet.

Fair enough. I thought you were hoping for remain. I started out in 2016 hoping that they would vote remain and for quite a while after I hoped they might find a way to save themselves, but their behaviour since and everything that they have revealed about themselves makes want to see the back of them now.

Mezcita

Varta wrote: »

You can't deny that there is a real momentum now. It's just a question of for how long it can be sustained. If he doesn't get it through on Saturday it will grind to a halt again and Brexit will be a dead duck. Everything hangs on Saturday.

Momentum for Johnson in that his ''die in a ditch'' comment might come back to haunt him. He needs a deal. If he fails an extension means that the never ending story just keeps going.

Shelga

Actually, this BBC article explains proceedings tomorrow quite well:

Brexit: What to expect from Parliament's Saturday sitting https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-50095368

Basically, Letwin amendment will probably be selected, and if passed, could delay the vote on the actual WA for a few days, until the EU grant an extension.

That is a bit risky in and of itself, IMO- I’m sure many MPs will just want to get on and vote on Johnson’s deal without any more delays, whether they are for it or against. Also, Letwin amendment hands back control temporarily to the EU, does it not? It is contingent on them granting the extension.

Although, admittedly, using the word ‘control’ about any aspect of the UK in this process is laughable.

Joe_ Public

Varta wrote: »

Fair enough. I thought you were hoping for remain. I started out in 2016 hoping that they would vote remain and for quite a while after I hoped they might find a way to save themselves, but their behaviour since and everything that they have revealed about themselves makes want to see the back of them now.

Im torn tbh. Remainer by inclination but the UK (well England!) is seruliously split so in some ways leaving might just be the best way. But not with this rubbish deal and with no deal threat still very real. I cant believe ANY labour mp could get behind it tbh. Politics is a very strange place at the moment.

farmchoice

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Bercow has to allow it but think he will. I think there might be a vote but pm will have to seek extension regardless. Im not sure exactly how clear it is yet.

the problem with this or any amendment is that if the vote fails so does the amendment. so if the letwin amendment passes and the wa act then fails to pass the amendment is gone.

trellheim

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Voting for this deal will not get anything "sorted", it will just start 10 years of national humiliation in trade talks, with regular shouting and roaring by Brexiteers about treachery, bullying, WTO terms and GATT24.

It will allow Johnson to claim an historic victory in all the papers and perhaps win the next election. Unclear why any Labour MP would vote for that, but it has become evident that the HoC is not full of rocket scientists.

The lack of a level playing field in WA means that post transition, leopard will not change spots. There's a reason it was removed as it was what the ERG wanted and so they get to be complete yahoos with workers rights etc there is zero commitment on harmony or anything like that, its a talisman for them.

Tea Shock

Varta wrote: »

No. That's not true. You jumped in and made an error. Fine. Just let it go. And BTW the concept of a UI would be something totally new for most people in Britain.

Considering most Brexiteers have spent the last year accusing the Irish government of overtly trying to cause a UI, that is plainly untrue!

woohoo!!!

I'm not comfortable with the consent bit, as will continue the political uncertainty and polarisation for NI. I don't think the EU expect this to pass tomorrow and therefore an extension.

Juncker and Varadkar are I believe laying the groundwork for the terms to agreeing to extend. Namely that it will be the last one and there'll be no further scope to dither, make up your mind, we're moving on, with or without a deal.

Joe_ Public

farmchoice wrote: »

the problem with this or any endearment is that if the vote fails so does the amendment. so if the letwin amendment passes and the wa act then fails to pass the amendment is gone.

If vote fails he has to seek extension anyway so job done. Letwin amendment only concerns short extension anyway so not sure how truly significant it is in the long run.

GM228

Shelga wrote: »

Actually, this BBC article explains proceedings tomorrow quite well:

Brexit: What to expect from Parliament's Saturday sitting https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-50095368

Basically, Letwin amendment will probably be selected, and if passed, could delay the vote on the actual WA for a few days, until the EU grant an extension.

That is a bit risky in and of itself, IMO- I’m sure many MPs will just want to get on and vote on Johnson’s deal without any more delays, whether they are for it or against. Also, Letwin amendment hands back control temporarily to the EU, does it not? It is contingent on them granting the extension.

Although, admittedly, using the word ‘control’ about any aspect of the UK in this process is laughable.

+1, it's a very short simple amendment, but with massive implications, it states:-

Line 3, leave out from "deal," to end and add "this House has considered the matter but withholds approval unless and until implementing legislation is passed"

In other words if passed the HoC can't lawfully approve the WA until the necessary legislation is passed, or simply put they can't vote on it tomorrow.

The whole voting process tomorrow isn't that simple though, see this thread which explains it:-

https://twitter.com/woodstockjag/status/1185157249217355777?s=19

This post outlines the text if it is passed:-

https://twitter.com/DomWalsh13/status/1185202755603980290?s=19

And it may pass:-

https://twitter.com/robpowellnews/status/1185198305254531073?s=19

Zubeneschamali

So if I am following the ERG leaks correctly, their plan is pass the deal, run down the clock again, and then at the end of the transition period in 2020, they have no trade deal and are out with No Deal, apart from NI.

Amazing to see so-called Conservatives so determined to reduce trade and impoverish the UK.

10000maniacs

Varta wrote: »

He did not look thick. He was actually quite articulate and he was very clear about uniting Ireland. I think people on twitter rushed to join with the original poster without actually listening to the clip. 'Mansplaining' brought quite a few of them running.

He may be a bit of a clacker, and he was coming from an English Nationalism perspective, but he does raise an important point. The UK border thing in Ireland is a square peg in a round hole. The sooner everyone realises it is an out of date, illogical and artificial creation implemented by a huge James Craig led Unionist majority 100 years ago that has since dwindled to a minority, the sooner both Ireland and the UK can move on.