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Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Quin_Dub

This is the eleventh incarnation of our Brexit discussion thread,

Same warnings etc still apply:

As we are approaching the critical end of March October 2019 period, please bear the following in mind before posting:
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CarPark2

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

They've said No to all 3 votes on Mays WA and look likely to say the same this time. They've said No I think to another referendum and probably said No to revoke. I think they also said No to the Benn Act.

Going back further they said No to the Good Friday Agreement and the Anglo Irish Agreement, and back further again, Paisley said No to Sunningdale.

They also want to say No to abortion. And have said No to pretty much everything else.

History tells us if you put a question before the DUP, they will answer with a No, including if the question was to revoke article 50.

They said Yes to the Leave Referendum!!!

In all seriousness, Newton Emerson said that the DUP are all tactics and no strategy. Their stated overall aim is to protect the union. When the assembly was up and running and Brexit referendum hadn't yet happened, there was no threat at all to the Union.
Then
- They campaigned for Brexit, including some shady dealings. Brexit was always going to weaken the union as it crystallised all of the issues around identity, nationhood, borders etc. that had been made amorphous under the GFA.
- They have resisted attempts to restart the Assembly, thereby further weakening the case that the status quo in NI is something that should be protected and/or that NI's current status is sustainable.
- They resisted attempts by Enda Kenny to get into a conversation about how the relationship between NI and RoI would work post-Brexit
- They voted against May's deal which guaranteed NIs place in the union
- They didn't work with May to come up with any alternative to her deal
- They fraternised with BoJo, Rees Mogg & Co and isolated May, even though May (despite all of her flaws) has a lot of integrity and loyalty and BoJo has none
- They failed to foresee the fact that their constituents, and particularly business and farmers would HATE a no-deal brexit

All of this has led to today, where they are between a rock and a hard-place.
BoJo has sold them out (it was always a case that BoJo cared about his own career more than anything and ERG care about a clean Brexit more than the Union); the current deal which may be passed is much worse for them than May's deal and many of their constituents are so worried about No-Deal that they will swallow this deal.

To make it worse, their confidence and supply agreement drew attention of MPs to NI for the first time in years. I think that many were shocked at how socially conservative the DUP are and it has prompted the bill which will introduce abortion and marriage equality rights in NI.

I don't foresee a united Ireland in the coming years, but this deal undoubtedly weakens the union.

I have a lot of sympathy for unionists (forcing them into united Ireland is no better than nationalists being part of the UK against their will), but their political representatives have completely failed to set out a vision of where they see NI in 10, 20 or 30 years time. Their only aim is to avoid unification and creeping Dublin influence. The lack of a positive vision leaves them with only short-term tactics and no long-term strategy.

hometruths

This morning I thought Johnson would get this passed tomorrow. Now I am not so sure. Wheels could coming off after remarks from an ERGer saying that they could use this as back door to no deal...

That will wipe out the rebel Tories and any would be Labour rebels if the story gains legs.

https://twitter.com/peoplesvote_uk/status/1185160014421299200

Tea Shock

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Jasus Christ never let the audience of QT talk about Ireland.

A special present for anyone who missed this absolute nugget!

https://twitter.com/JaneyGodley/status/1185161142617985024

This is what we've been dealing with folks!

Joe_ Public

LeinsterDub wrote: »

https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1185177682465701888

This one is coming out of left field for me. What's happening here?

Letwin amendment would basically hold up the vote to allow extension on basis legislation cant be passed in time. There would be no vote on it saturday but gov would go on with legislation i think.

Kermit.de.frog

Sammy Wilson running around Westminster like a lunatic apparently pleading with MPs to reject.

They say he is annoying :pac:

joe40

I'm not sure what I want on Saturday. In one way it would be great to get a WA and move onto the next stage without a "no deal" exit.

But at the same time the vast majority of MPs opposing the deal aren't doing so because they want a hard Brexit, on the contrary they're looking for softer Brexit or second referendum with a view to remain.

The hardcore looking for a "no deal" exit are quite a small minority in the HoC.

Would the best outcome for Ireland be defeat of this deal in the HoC.

The Benn act should ensure no "no deal" so a general election will take place.

worst case scenario then is a tory government, but they'll just put through this agreement again and pass it.
Or some other form of government Labour/Lib Dem that may pursue a less harmful Brexit.

This is quite a hard Brexit and if UK suffer economically it will still have an impact on us.

Is my logic flawed in some way?

LeinsterDub

https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1185177682465701888

This one is coming out of left field for me. What's happening here?

Nate--IRL--

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

David Trimble has come out and urged MPs to pass the deal saying it is "compatible with the GFA".

That is a surprise!

Nate

Kermit.de.frog

John Mann, Labour MP, saying at least 9 Labour MPs will be voting for the deal.

David Trimble has come out and urged MPs to pass the deal saying it is "compatible with the GFA".

hometruths

lawred2 wrote: »

Spartans?

The Spartans are the hard ERGers who voted against May's deal three times.

No idea how these MPs gather up names for their gangs like they are in a playground but it seems to be another one of these endearingly British conventions.

trellheim

Some Spartans frustrated at Sammy Wilson / Ian Paisley Jnr / Nigel Dodds counter-whipping operation trying to get them to oppose the deal

One says Wilson in particular is being “annoying” and is hell-bent on no-deal

Spartans = ERG basically. Mark Francois/Steve Baker. No brexit is too hard for them. Although the ERG finding DUP too hardcore/proponents of No deal is risible. This is what happens when free trade hawks/headbangers/idiots finally diverge from tribalism

dinorebel

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

The DUP have been a complete gift to progressive Irish nationalism. In a matter of months we'll likely have equal marriage, reproductive rights, and a new all-Ireland paradigm.

Incredible.

Do you remember the Brexit Bus (350m a month for the NHS)? the DUP are now under it.

lawred2

schmittel wrote: »

Bit late now to be complaining about the intransigence of the DUP

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1185168667102855178

If you lie down with dogs, you get up with fleas...

"Wilson in particular is being "annoying" is a damning understatement of him and the DUP!

Spartans?

Junkyard Tom

The DUP have been a complete gift to progressive Irish nationalism. In a matter of months we'll likely have equal marriage, reproductive rights, and a new all-Ireland paradigm.

Incredible.

Strazdas

J Mysterio wrote: »

I think there is an element that everyone is kind of in shock that a deal was reached. Also that there are so many new elements to the deal that seem to contradict prior statements by multiple parties. There is a sense of relief at the same time, Brexit fatigue is a thing.

I have a feeling the vote will pass tomorrow. Johnson will be a hero for the short term, but ultimately Britain will suffer for the deal. Scotland will still seek independence and there seems to be the fast track path back to the EU for them.

I think the NI arrangements will still lead to a UI in the near future - 5,10, 15 years.

It might be the only sensible outcome though. I think even the EU are now sick of the UK and of Brexit.

robinph

J Mysterio wrote: »

I think there is an element that everyone is kind of in shock that a deal was reached.

Why is it a surprise that Johnson came back with Mays deal and that he caved in on the backstop and called it something different in the hope that nobody would notice?

It is a surprise that the media are making out that it is a surprise, and that then plays into Johnson/ Cummings hands as if they have managed to do something remarkable. They really haven't done anything.

Professor Moriarty

trellheim wrote: »

I've been wrong before but I think this will pass, unless Labour impose a 3-line whip and the DUP vote against.

The lack of the level playing field in the WA is angering me as I think much like Macron, somewhat too much may have been conceded here.

Labour intend to impose a three line whip and the DUP will vote against.

hometruths

Bit late now to be complaining about the intransigence of the DUP

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1185168667102855178

If you lie down with dogs, you get up with fleas...

"Wilson in particular is being "annoying" is a damning understatement of him and the DUP!

Professor Moriarty

Telegraph reporting that two ministers might resign. Would be a serious spanner in the works.

trellheim

I've been wrong before but I think this will pass, unless Labour impose a 3-line whip and the DUP vote against.

The lack of the level playing field in the WA is angering me as I think much like Macron, somewhat too much may have been conceded here.

Water John

His vote was the easiest to secure. They just left him have a meeting with the PM.
He was so chuffed to be granted that.

J Mysterio

I think there is an element that everyone is kind of in shock that a deal was reached. Also that there are so many new elements to the deal that seem to contradict prior statements by multiple parties. There is a sense of relief at the same time, Brexit fatigue is a thing.

I have a feeling the vote will pass tomorrow. Johnson will be a hero for the short term, but ultimately Britain will suffer for the deal. Scotland will still seek independence and there seems to be the fast track path back to the EU for them.

I think the NI arrangements will still lead to a UI in the near future - 5,10, 15 years.

Professor Moriarty

trashcan wrote: »

Exactly. Why are they not pulled up on this sort of nonsense. And on Bridgen and competing for tax with Ireland, again, why was it not pointed out to him that if Ireland can do that as an EU Membee Stata, what’s stopping the UK exactly? James O’Brien is the only UK journalist I’ve heard asking this sort of questions.

You must always understand what a person says in the context of who they are. Andrew Bridgen MP stated categorically that every English person is entitled to an Irish passport. I can't decide whether Mr Bridgen is stupid or wilfully ignorant.

ToBeFrank123

gooch2k9 wrote: »

At this point surely the DUP have to backtrack and support revoke? Two deals negotiated, both differentiating NI from the rest of UK. Brexit is only going one way for them. The best thing they can do "for the union" is to swallow their pride and change tack.

They've said No to all 3 votes on Mays WA and look likely to say the same this time. They've said No I think to another referendum and probably said No to revoke. I think they also said No to the Benn Act.

Going back further they said No to the Good Friday Agreement and the Anglo Irish Agreement, and back further again, Paisley said No to Sunningdale.

They also want to say No to abortion. And have said No to pretty much everything else.

History tells us if you put a question before the DUP, they will answer with a No, including if the question was to revoke article 50.

FrancieBrady

writhen wrote: »

You may be underestimating their lust for money.

I'm not doubting that. What I am saying it is no out for them in this situation.

ToBeFrank123

beggars_bush wrote: »

How much will the DUP have to be given to change their stance?

Seems to be the only thing that turns their heads anymore

Lord Nigel Dodds?
Lady Arlene Foster?

Damehoods and knighthoods for services to UK politics?

There are numerous bribes inducements available to any Prime Minister to use as has happened in the past.

Jim2007

blanch152 wrote: »

Those are all fair points, but until we see the details, we have no way of knowing, and even then it all depends on the ability of NI to exploit its unique situation.

Goods imported into NI from <snip - Great Britain> will be subject to EU tariffs which can be claimed back if the goods are not shipped onward to Ireland.... good luck with exploiting that unique situation.

trashcan

Tea Shock wrote: »

Here's an even better one. The genius that is Dominic Raab crowed this morning about what "a cracking deal Northern Ireland would be getting" as it would keep frictionless access to the single market!

Erm....remind me again why you want the rest of the UK to lose this "cracking" deal?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m0009d0s

The relevant part is at 2hrs 17 minutes

Exactly. Why are they not pulled up on this sort of nonsense. And on Bridgen and competing for tax with Ireland, again, why was it not pointed out to him that if Ireland can do that as an EU Membee Stata, what’s stopping the UK exactly? James O’Brien is the only UK journalist I’ve heard asking this sort of questions.

robinph

Tea Shock wrote: »

Here's an even better one. The genius that is Dominic Raab crowed this morning about what "a cracking deal Northern Ireland would be getting" as it would keep frictionless access to the single market!

Erm....remind me again why you want the rest of the UK to lose this "cracking" deal?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m0009d0s

The relevant part is at 2hrs 17 minutes

Was watching that bit live and couldn't understand why the interviewer let that comment slide by.

Raab was also clearly under instructions to smile all the way through and whenever he wasn't talking you could see him straining to smile rather than smirk, was not quite as bad as Gordon Browns fake smile whenever he noticed a camera on him, but along those lines.

reslfj

lightspeed wrote: »

can you provide a source stating EU members will continue to have access to UK fishing waters?

View Michel Barnier from about 21:25 in this video talking about fishing grounds and the UK's future export of fish to the EU.
https://video.consilium.europa.eu/en/webcast/0041558c-b668-4b33-85ae-d73234cc6315

The new political declaration https://ec.europa.eu/commission/publications/revised-political-declaration_en says:

73. Within the context of the overall economic partnership the Parties should establish a new fisheries agreement on, inter alia, access to waters and quota shares.

lightspeed wrote: »

Also please provide same source stating britain cannot restrict movement of people from EU who wish to work ans live in UK?

Until the end of the transition period(s) everything FoM continues as now including new migrants from the EU26 (Irish citizens can settle freely in the UK). The agreed transition period in the TM/Boris deal is rest of 2019 and all of 2020.

This first period can (and surely will) be extended until the end of 2022.

Looking at the typical time to negotiate and agree FTAs some form of an even longer transition period will be needed by the UK and therefore - IMHO - likely.

Lars

PS! The demographics of Europe - more older people, fewer in working ages - will make it very likely the UK will want all the migrants they can persuade to come and work in the NHS, education and many,m many other places.
But they are few and will be fewer looking 5-10 years or more ahead. Migration for non European countries has always been above migration from the EU and will have to grow even more.

That's just the way it is.