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Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Quin_Dub

This is the eleventh incarnation of our Brexit discussion thread,

Same warnings etc still apply:

As we are approaching the critical end of March October 2019 period, please bear the following in mind before posting:
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Joe_ Public

The impatience of EU politicians seems of paramount concern to me anyway, especially for remainers. While an extension may be granted, I'd be a little concerned with the frostiness of a lot of EU replies to the suggestion. Consensus seems there MUST be a good reason stated in the request so it's possible a bit more than a Benn letter will be required.

Akrasia

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Dominic Raab and his rictus grin on my telly box earlier, saying with as straight a face as he can muster, that there is absolutely no border down the Irish Sea. So how will there be checks then? Well....well....technology dont you know, our old pals alternative arrangements to the rescue yet again.

They haven't gone away, you know!

There's a whopping big moat between NI and the UK. Putting a customs border in the Irish sea was always the most sensible thing to do given that there are requirements for security checks getting on boats and airplanes anyway

Enzokk

We will see a lot of spin in the next few days about how good Johnson has been to get this deal, but let us not forget what actually happened,

https://twitter.com/DmitryOpines/status/1184801860579930114?s=20

So the EU said no new deal or changes to the backstop but apparently that happened so all hail Johnson. But the movement happened because he reversed from the UK position and all of a sudden, movement. Who knew going back to what the EU wanted would make them move to that position. The analysis written if this deal goes through will be fascinating in 5-10 years time when the hyperbole has died down and the consequences (worse deal for the UK than May's, only slightly better than no-deal) have been felt and confirmed.

Joe_ Public

Akrasia wrote: »

There's a whopping big moat between NI and the UK. Putting a customs border in the Irish sea was always the most sensible thing to do given that there are requirements for security checks getting on boats and airplanes anyway

Yeah, he was obviously trying to suggest it's such a soft border as to not really exist at all but if/when the EU goes about protecting the SM integrity, let's see how that spin stands up.

First Up

It is interesting to watch how closely the whole saga is following the Bereavement/Change curve - from denial and anger through to eventual acceptance.

The path is predictable (and inevitable) but not necessarily continuous - it sometimes sways back a bit before moving on so its hard to calculate when it will end.

Some of the parties are moving through it at different speeds - the ERG and DUP competing for last place as usual.

Anyway we are now in the Bargaining/Experimentation phase, with the Depression and Acceptance phases still to come.

We'll get there but as with all bereavement curves, reviving the corpse is not one of the options.

prawnsambo

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

And they haven't said it ends uncertainty. They've said they're giving it a 'guarded welcome' and that there are additional administrative burdens, with issues to be decided in a FTA. They've basically calculated it's the least worst option compared to the potential of a crash-out Brexit, which from their point of view is correct.

They said that what's good is that a deal is struck and they can move on to more positive things. It's not saying it ends uncertainty in those very words, but the meaning is the same.

FrancieBrady

So what is the consensus this morning...is this going to get through the HoC?

And if somebody could outline the timeline for the debate tomorrow in the HoC, that would be great too. Hopefully it doesn't clash with a little sporting event in the Land Of The Rising Sun tomorrow!

ToBeFrank123

FrancieBrady wrote: »

So what is the consensus this morning...is this going to get through the HoC?

If the DUP abstain, there's a small chance it will. If they do not abstain and vote against, it will likely fail. Lets hope they abstain.

Joe_ Public

Enzokk wrote: »

For all of those saying the deal passes with Labour votes tomorrow, has the facts changed since February?

Labour will be punished by voters if it gives any backing at all to Brexit

Corbyn is less popular now with those under 35 than Johnson. People in that age bracket are more likely to vote Remain, but Labour confirming Brexit will happen? Labour will need a sweetener to make it happen and that has to be a confirmatory referendum, anything else should be opposed and those that vote for the deal needs to be expelled.

Very fascinating dynamic going on with Labour. That piece saying Labour true heartlands are remain. Well maybe I'm a traditionalist, but I understood that Labour's heartland was the industrial Midlands and North where leave vote was strongest. Just shows you how the sands are shifting and the nature of the dilemma that confronts them. I can't blame Corbyn for not wanting to abandon the old areas, but maybe that's how they'll have to go.

I also think he's popular with young generation, despite what figures say. At least that's sense you get when he's out on the campaign trail.

Shelga

Also, I totally understand MPs wanting to remain- but for the rest of us, is a deeply divided, toxic UK that will do nothing but cause trouble, whingeing about how democracy has been betrayed, sending their ~30 Brexit Party MEPs to the EU parliament for eternity really what we want?? I certainly don’t.

prawnsambo

Alex Andreou hits the nail on the head in one tweet.

PokeHerKing

Will the EU be setting up custom checks at NI ports if this deal passes?

First Up

PokeHerKing wrote:

Will the EU be setting up custom checks at NI ports if this deal passes?

The EU doesn't set up customs posts.

Water John

If DUP were to abstain, though that looks unlikely, it would mean the Govn't could continue to function if they get back most of those it expelled.
https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/dup-holding-firm-as-mps-plan-to-vote-against-johnsons-brexit-deal-958088.html

Are the DUP still open for discussions/money that would encourage them to abstain? Well the abortion question is important to them, for example.

ancapailldorcha

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

If the DUP abstain, there's a small chance it will. If they do not abstain and vote against, it will likely fail. Lets hope they abstain.

Why would they? I'm hoping this thing burns in the HoC and there's no way they'll do anything to permit the Irish sea border. All 10 of them will be there to vote it down.

LuckyLloyd

lawred2 wrote: »

Why would that be of any relevance to him? Seriously. He has to do what he think is best for the people of the UK.

The impatience of some Polish/Belgian/Swedish/etc/etc people are of no real consequence to him or the future of his country really.

Then get out there and start rustling up real street protest, start getting unions organised to strike, etc. Stop ****ing about talking irrelevant nonsense
and hopping around the benches in the commons to the benefit of his own political career.

FrancieBrady

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

If the DUP abstain, there's a small chance it will. If they do not abstain and vote against, it will likely fail. Lets hope they abstain.

How could they 'abstain' and keep straight faces?

Edit: Nevermind, I think I know the answer.

Zubeneschamali

prawnsambo wrote: »

It won't take many to turn this around.

Yes, it will. Many, many more than voted for May's deal, and there is zero reason for them to do it.

If they reject this deal, the very worst that can happen is Johnson wins an election and passes this deal without their help.

The best is that they win an election, which is what every politician is in politics to do.

Shelga

Also, Labour MPs must be aware that if they vote for this, they are likely ushering in another 5 years with Boris as PM, as they’ll be facilitating his ability to declare himself in a GE campaign as the incredible statesman who “got Brexit done”- vom.

ToBeFrank123

Everytime the HoC reject a deal in the hope of getting a better deal, they end up getting a worse deal.

Joe_ Public

DUP - deal is detrimental to economic well being of NI. This from the shower that was quite relaxed about a no deal brexit. Gave me a chuckle anyway.

sliabh 1956

Listening to SoR If what Coveney says is correct the DUP are so blinded by their hatred of all things Republic is quite scary. Imagine the mayhem they would create if there ever was a united Ireland

Zubeneschamali

Bambi wrote: »

Guess who was told to blink and did?

Boris Johnson.

Nothing to do with the EU either - he gambled everything on an Oct 31st deadline, and then the House of Commons passed the Benn act, so he had to accept the EU offer to get a deal by his own deadline.

This deal is just May's deal with the lipstick wiped off, so it is fine by the EU.

Joe_ Public

Shelga wrote: »

Also, Labour MPs must be aware that if they vote for this, they are likely ushering in another 5 years with Boris as PM, as they’ll be facilitating his ability to declare himself in a GE campaign as the incredible statesman who “got Brexit done”- vom.

And if they bring it down they'll be relentlessly portrayed as the party that thwarted brexit. Probably way they have to go anyway, but it's not a fantastic position to be in. Will have to have a smart strategy to counter it.

Christy Sweets

Shelga wrote: »

Also, Labour MPs must be aware that if they vote for this, they are likely ushering in another 5 years with Boris as PM, as they’ll be facilitating his ability to declare himself in a GE campaign as the incredible statesman who “got Brexit done”- vom.

I'm afraid there are plenty of Labour MPs who would be prepared to accept that if it got rid of Corbyn.

PokeHerKing

First Up wrote: »

The EU doesn't set up customs posts.

So is it up to the NI/UK government to police NI ports to adhere to SM rules, or how will it work?

Water John

Yes the UK Govn't is the one checking at Larne. But then the large majority of goods for NI go through Dublin.

First Up

PokeHerKing wrote:

So is it up to the NI/UK government to police NI ports to adhere to SM rules, or how will it work?

All countries are responsible for their own borders.

moon2

First Up wrote: »

All countries are responsible for their own borders.

And Northern Ireland will be responsible for applying the import/export rules at their borders. Those rules will be the EU rules.

(edit: I don't think you're disagreeing with that statement, but i've seen enough people asking this that it's worth spelling it out very clearly

)

CelticRambler

Imreoir2 wrote: »

To an extent, though any company thinking of investing somewhere in the UK (all else being equal) would surely prefer NI which may or may not fall out of the EU in 4 years over GB which already has fallen out of the EU.

I disagree. Any company investing in the UK in the near future will be doing so to take maximum advantage of regulatory dis-alignment with the EU, and they'll be better able to do so in the fully deviated, deregulated GB than the half-in, half-out environment of NI.

There's no reason to believe that standards in GB will be higher/tighter than in the EU, so when a trade deal is finally agreed, EU products/services will be immediately compliant with GB standards; anything produced or provided by a company in NI will still have to be re-certified by the EU.

The situation was very nicely summed up by a certain Boris Johnson recently, when he spoke at the conference off a certain Democratic Unionist Party:

https://twitter.com/ByDonkeys/status/1184738823420502016