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Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Quin_Dub

This is the eleventh incarnation of our Brexit discussion thread,

Same warnings etc still apply:

As we are approaching the critical end of March October 2019 period, please bear the following in mind before posting:
Insults directed at popular figures are not acceptable in this forum
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SeaBreezes

prawnsambo wrote: »

By all accounts, the security briefings he got on no deal scared the bejesus out of him. All the talk about no deal stopped and a deal became imperative.

Idiot should've known it long long before then...

Ronan|Raven

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Andrew "I'm entitled to an Irish passport by virtue of being English" Bridgen not only threw them under the bus on C4 News this evening - he then reversed the bus and ran over them again!

Looks like the ERG are on board.

Just watching it now and that is a very kind assesment.

prawnsambo

SeaBreezes wrote: »

Idiot should've known it long long before then...

Long, long before then it wasn't his problem. That, I suspect is how he thinks.

prawnsambo

MrMusician18 wrote: »

In this thread there seems to be a bit of wishful thinking depending on what side of the argument you're coming from. The hard remainers here think it will be defeated and the few leavers think it will pass.

The truth is, at the moment it's too close to call. If labour can manage to impose discipline it will fall if they don't it could pass in relative comfort.

If I were a betting man, I've a feeling he'll shade it. That said I've been wrong with the vast majority of my predictions thus far.

If Johnson gets it passed and subsequently wins a big majority (as would seem likely), the UK will deserve everything that the Tories deliver to them.

I think, like most people here, I'd prefer them to remain.. But I think it could well pass in the HoC. As I pointed out above.

MrMusician18

Joe_ Public wrote: »

James cleverly on newsnight claiming Johnson had "achieved the impossible" by bringing back a deal. FFS! They could have got that deal 2 years ago except for stupid red lines.

And hark at the erg guy who said it was the threat of no deal that got them over the line. Alistair Burt quickly put him right in that it was the opposite that happened. How insane are these people?

What annoyed me most was the declaration by the ERG guy (and went unchallenged by Wark) when he said Johnson delivered on his promise.

No mention of his backtracking of a border in the Irish sea...

Joe_ Public

MrMusician18 wrote: »

What annoyed me most was the declaration by the ERG guy (and went unchallenged by Wark) when he said Johnson delivered on his promise.

No mention of his backtracking of a border in the Irish sea...

Also saying they'll keep the threat of no deal on the table throughout the next phase of talks. Do these guys ever take a day off?

lightspeed

Hurrache wrote: »

But this didn't actually happen so how could they have been right?

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/amp.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/brexit-explainer-whats-in-the-deal-and-what-happens-now-957882.html

"Q8: So what about the future?
Very importantly, both the EU and the UK have agreed to a “free-trade” where no tariffs will apply in a document called the “political declaration.”"

So its clear as i mentioned EU leaders have surrendered to ensure Britain will get to have its cake and eat it.

Britain gets the following:

1.a tariff free deal,
2.complete control of immigration
3. no longer have to pay into EU budget
4. Also will be able to take back its fishing waters.

Im failing to see why they would not leave considering they can retain nearly all the main benefits once leaving.

Ireland on the other hand are now a net contributor to EU budget and will be paying more along with other member states with britain gone

North Macedonia and Albania due to join EU despite French opposition. That will mean more immigration one way and id assume further contributions from existing member states required.

We will also have many of the french, spanish etc boats fishing in uk waters now hoovering up fish in irish waters.

Im at a loss which part of this deal irish people should be celebrating?

The uk parliment passed the Benn act demanding no deal not an option. It clearly would have been better for all especially EU if they refused to negotiate further and ensured new referendum was held in hope it would be remain and all this mess all forgotten about.

Varta

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I'm not writing anything off. I'm just looking at probability. Any Labour MP voting for Johnson's deal will be seen as a traitor. Corbyn won't be going any time soon. It's one thing to contact Juncker, it's another to actually see this through. This does not concern me.

The momentum has quickened dramatically the last few days and I really believe more Labour MPs than expected are going to support this deal. For many of them it will be vote against the deal and be turfed out by the voters at the next election or vote for it and be turfed out by deselection. The thing is, however, If Johnson gets this deal through then Corbyn is going under his own bus. If the deal goes through Labour will need to do something dramatic if they are to challenge the Tories at the next election. They are going to have to get rid of Corbyn and make radical changes. If this happens then those Labour rebels could avoid deselection. Therefore some of them are going to gamble on voting for the deal. There is no way Corbyn's leadership can survive Johnson getting his deal through.

Hurrache

I normally avoid Yates and Cooper on TV3 because they're basically trolls when it comes to the poxy Tonight Show, but I flicked upon it from Jools Holland tonight and they're tag teaming Lynn Boylan over SF's abstentionism policy.

Jesus lads, you know better than cheap hysterical TV to drum up your twitter hits. Pretty pathetic, and I'm no fan of SF.

Joe_ Public

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

By the way, the Financial Times has conducted an analysis and predicted a defeat of the new Withdrawal Bill by 3 votes:

.

There's a lib dem voting for the deal according to that. How can that be? Sounds very odd.

Edit: I guess they're assuming it's that Tory guy who crossed floor recently cos he backed Mays deal, but that was then. He's lib dem now and thus a remainer or he'll be looking for another change of party.

MrMusician18

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Also saying they'll keep the threat of no deal on the table throughout the next phase of talks. Do these guys ever take a day off?

The next phase of talks is going to be rather scary for Ireland. I suspect Ireland will have used a lot of political capital on the NI issue.

I feel that unlike this set of negotiations where the EU had to protect a member state, this constraint won't exist next for the next round. If the UK plays hardball, the EU will terminate the negotiation and the mainland UK will get it's hard Brexit at the end of transition.

Itssoeasy

Maybe this has been said already tonight as this is a fast moving thread, but could the deal which has to be voted on by the European Parliament as well as the House of Commons be in trouble if the brexit party in the EP decide that's not good enough for them and build support to vote against it there ? I mean it's probably a bit ask but is it out of the realm of possibility ?

prawnsambo

lightspeed wrote: »

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/amp.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/brexit-explainer-whats-in-the-deal-and-what-happens-now-957882.html

"Q8: So what about the future?
Very importantly, both the EU and the UK have agreed to a “free-trade” where no tariffs will apply in a document called the “political declaration.”"

So its clear as i mentioned EU leaders have surrendered to ensure Britain will get to have its cake and eat it.

Britain gets the following:

1.a tariff free deal,
2.complete control of immigration
3. no longer have to pay into EU budget

Im failing to see why they would not leave considering they can retain all the main benefits once leaving.

I'm not sure if you're slagging The Examiner's 'explainer' or believe it.

I actually went to the link thinking it was some parody site.

"A 'free trade'" Jesus wept.

MrMusician18

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Maybe this has been said already tonight as this is a fast moving thread, but could the deal which has to be voted on by the European Parliament as well as the House of Commons be in trouble if the brexit party in the EP decide that's not good enough for them and build support to vote against it there ? I mean it's probably a bit ask but is it out of the realm of possibility ?

It will pass easily in the EP. The two main blocs EPP and socialists will vote for it.

You might get a rad tag bunch of hard left and hard right voting against it but couldn't see it numbering more than a third of the parliament at the very most. And that's a big stretch.

Hurrache

lightspeed wrote: »

So its clear as i mentioned EU leaders have surrendered to ensure Britain will get to have its cake and eat it.

No, that's not what you mentioned. Also, who told who to blink?

We've also been a net contributor for a while, nothing to do with this deal.

prawnsambo

MrMusician18 wrote: »

The next phase of talks is going to be rather scary for Ireland. I suspect Ireland will have used a lot of political capital on the NI issue.

I feel that unlike this set of negotiations where the EU had to protect a member state, this constraint won't exist next for the next round. If the UK plays hardball, the EU will terminate the negotiation and the mainland UK will get it's hard Brexit at the end of transition.

They won't have a FTA by the end of 2020, or by the end of 2024 either. They may have some co-operation agreements a la USA and China, but there will not be anything like an FTA completed this side of 2025.

Joe_ Public

MrMusician18 wrote: »

The next phase of talks is going to be rather scary for Ireland. I suspect Ireland will have used a lot of political capital on the NI issue.

I feel that unlike this set of negotiations where the EU had to protect a member state, this constraint won't exist next for the next round. If the UK plays hardball, the EU will terminate the negotiation and the mainland UK will get it's hard Brexit at the end of transition.

Either way they still have to honour the GFA so that insurance will always be there.

Bigboldworld

Can i ask folks, and it’s something that has bothered me for a while, I notice one group in all of the brexit news that are very seldom mentioned and appear to be very quiet almost too quiet, what is the position of loyalist paramilitaries in all that is going on particularly if the unionists come out with a deal they are unhappy with, is there any risk of them starting up again? I hope not, I remember the bad days all too well and just seems the focus is on the risk from dissident republicans and nothing about the other side.

Itssoeasy

MrMusician18 wrote: »

It will pass easily in the EP. The two main blocs EPP and socialists will vote for it.

You might get a rad tag bunch of hard left and hard right voting against it but couldn't see it numbering more than a third of the parliament at the very most. And that's a big stretch.

Oh okay. I think i'm just honestly punch drunk over this whole Brexit mess since 2016. I mean a subject that you'd be talking to family and friends about before and after the vote in 2016, now if someone brings it up there's almost a collective groan, so people stop bringing it up.

MrMusician18

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Either way they still have to honour the GFA so that insurance will always be there.

Indeed, that's why it was important to get it sorted at this point. The intention was to avoid the border being played as a card in the future trade negotiation to extract more favorable terms for the UK.

I suspect with that resolved the intention of the EU negotiators will be to fillet the City of London

Itssoeasy

Bigboldworld wrote: »

Can i ask folks, and it’s something that has bothered me for a while, I notice one group in all of the brexit news that are very seldom mentioned and appear to be very quiet almost too quiet, what is the position of loyalist paramilitaries in all that is going on particularly if the unionists come out with a deal they are unhappy with, is there any risk of them starting up again? I hope not, I remember the bad days all too well and just seems the focus is on the risk from dissident republicans and nothing about the other side.

Unfortunately, I think there is a better than good chance that one of the local mensa branches up there will kick off and the other will respond. I genuinely hope I'm wrong on that.

lightspeed

prawnsambo wrote: »

I'm not sure if you're slagging The Examiner's 'explainer' or believe it.

I actually went to the link thinking it was some parody site.

"A 'free trade'" Jesus wept.

im confused what your "jesus wept" means or why the doubt of the validity of the examiners information in which it has quoted this tariff free arranged listed in a political declaration?

The EU is not lead by a donald trump like character opposed to free trade deals. Is it not the case that tariff free agreements have been made between EU and Japan, Canada in recent years?

Why do you believe the same wont be agreed with Britain despite evidence to the contrary?

NotToScale

I think they will be agreed, eventually. However if you look at the EU's history of negotiations on trade deals it neither moves quickly nor is it driven to bend to compromise quickly.

Look at how long CETA took and TTIP has basically proven to be impossible.

I think you could be looking at an EU-UK trade deal but probably in 5 to 10 years and with huge compromise on the UK side.

Christy Sweets

Hard remainer myself and I have to say I think this will pass the House of Commons with probably double figures in terms of Labour defections.

I think Brexit fatigue will be a key factor in this. But the deal looks terrible and it will be a case of not voting for it on the basis of its merits but voting for old rope because it's a "deal". These defectors will ensure Labour loses the election.

The deal is bad for Ireland, bad for Britain, and bad for the North. It undermines the Good Friday Agreement, will build a siege mentality among Unionists and promote uncertainty so won't benefit the North's economy.

One bad Stormont election result and there's your hard border. Britain itself can leave on no deal terms at the end of 2020.

May's deal was bad but way more palatable than this.

Bigboldworld

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Unfortunately, I think there is a better than good chance that one of the local mensa branches up there will kick off and the other will respond. I genuinely hope I'm wrong on that.

Yes that would be my concern here too, I’ve just done a bit of reading and it appears their leadership is taking a wait and see approach, if they feel they are cornered I can see them kicking off, again all too quiet for my liking and people shouldn’t forget that it’s not just republicans who are capable of launching a murderous campaign, can’t see them sitting on their hands and taking if they feel they are being shafted

prawnsambo

lightspeed wrote: »

im confused what your "jesus wept" means or why the doubt of the validity of the examiners information in which it has quoted this tariff free arranged listed in a political declaration?

The EU is not lead by a donald trump like character opposed to free trade deals. Is it not the case that tariff free agreements have been made between EU and Japan, Canada in recent years?

Why do you believe the same wont be agreed with Britain despite evidence to the contrary?

Because that 'explainer' looks like it was written by an intern in their first week on the job. It's incomprehensible rubbish. There is no such thing as a "free trade" in that way of speaking. It's a free trade agreement and they take years to complete. The transition period will be ancient history before there's one agreed.

And tariffs aren't the only component of free trade agreements. It's a tiny amount.

joeysoap

I’m confused too. Does the UK have to pay the €39b or not?

Is there ongoing payments or is that part of future negotiations? I know Norway pays.

They are claiming EU and British citizens rights are protected. Does this mean freedom of future movement and right to work between the 28 or just people already in situ?

prawnsambo

Christy Sweets wrote: »

The deal is bad for Ireland, bad for Britain, and bad for the North. It undermines the Good Friday Agreement, will build a siege mentality among Unionists and promote uncertainty so won't benefit the North's economy.

That's a bit of a DUP talking point right there. Which is ironic since they hate the GFA. Sinn Fein, on the other hand have given it a lukewarm assent, mostly because it pushes a UI referendum back up the calendar a fair bit. As for the NI economy, NI Manufacturing have welcomed it for the fact that it ends uncertainty and protects business. So one of you are right. I think I'll go with NI Manufacturing.

MrMusician18

joeysoap wrote: »

I’m confused too. Does the UK have to pay the €39b or not?

Is there ongoing payments or is that part of future negotiations? I know Norway pays.

They are claiming EU and British citizens rights are protected. Does this mean freedom of future movement and right to work between the 28 or just people already in situ?

UK had to pay the 39bn
Citizens rights for those that move up to the end of transition are protected.

At the moment there are no ongoing payments (apart from those related to the withdrawal settlement). Payment for enhanced market access will form part of the next phase of talks.

I expect these talks to break quickly down in acrimony.

prawnsambo

joeysoap wrote: »

I’m confused too. Does the UK have to pay the €39b or not?

Is there ongoing payments or is that part of future negotiations? I know Norway pays.

They are claiming EU and British citizens rights are protected. Does this mean freedom of future movement and right to work between the 28 or just people already in situ?

Just people in situ. For the avoidance of doubt, this is 64 pages changed of May's original 585 pages. So pretty much everything the same except the backstop is a front stop and the UK isn't in it.