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Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Quin_Dub

This is the eleventh incarnation of our Brexit discussion thread,

Same warnings etc still apply:

As we are approaching the critical end of March October 2019 period, please bear the following in mind before posting:
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Kermit.de.frog

irishfeen wrote: »

It will be interesting to see if the DUP’s stance will move anyone in the ERG to vote against the deal... sounds coming out at the minute seem to suggest they will follow BJ.

Andrew "I'm entitled to an Irish passport by virtue of being English" Bridgen not only threw them under the bus on C4 News this evening - he then reversed the bus and ran over them again!

Looks like the ERG are on board.

Harry Palmr

It's amazing what a looming deadline can do.

Did Johnson really ever want to do a deal? Maybe maybe not but the combination of Parliament striking back and the Benn Bill plus vanishing time forced a change of approach (Leo Varadkar can take a bow here) - with Johnson also being aware of sheer tedium about the process on both sides of the debate.

"In the name of God, go!" they all think in Brussels.

All sides are suing for peace - putting up with a deal that suits almost no one but will find a way to live with

gmisk

Fix Thy Foot! wrote: »

i believe the EU/Dublin rightly believed they could fob Treesa off and send her scurrying back and forth to Westminster like a madwoman. In that they succeeded.

But then BoJo entered stage-left and they quickly realised they were dealing with a totally different animal. Suddenly they were in a game of hardball.
They knew they were not going to get away with treating Johnson & Cummings like they did Treesa.
The rules had changed. Prologation, dodging the Benn Act do or die etc. was no accident. Juncker Barnier & Leo knew a compromise had to be reached or this guy was likely to pull the pin.

I honestly think you are giving Boris Johnson far too much credit.
The new deal swaps a backstop for a four-year alignment between Northern Ireland and EU...it drags things out yet again. The other changes were fairly small tweaks imo.

I also don't think it's going to pass...I don't think he has the numbers.

The clips on the view on BBC 1 now......Boris Johnson...you can't believe a word out of his gob.
UUP guy on show is fuming as expected. Worse deal than the backstop.

ancapailldorcha

On the four year recurring veto, that's surely a serious disincentive to potential investors to invest in one of the UK's most economically deprived regions, no?

dublinman1990

If you're watching UTV right now. View from Stormont will be on in a few minutes.

Water John

That vote is fairly hypothetical, in the fact it's highly unlikely to change the status of NI. It would rate as low risk in any business assessment.

gmisk

Fix Thy Foot! wrote: »

i honestly think Boris does not give a fiddlers about the Backstop, past or present. So long as he gets to carry the ball over the line he does not care. so long as he gets the Glory Boris is happy.

as for Sat's vote. my money is staying in my pocket.

He doesn't care about the backstop or northern Ireland, I agree with you on that.

ancapailldorcha

By the way, the Financial Times has conducted an analysis and predicted a defeat of the new Withdrawal Bill by 3 votes:

As above, he faces greater problems than did May. I would expect a storied historian to know better. History might not repeat but it certainly rhymes.

gmisk

dublinman1990 wrote: »

If you're watching UTV right now. View from Stormont will be on in a few minutes.

Will it be a chirping cricket or a tumbleweed? Because there hasn't been a government there since March 2017...

Tea Shock

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

On the four year recurring veto, that's surely a serious disincentive to potential investors to invest in one of the UK's most economically deprived regions, no?

The Irish government wouldn't say it out loud, but that does the Republic of Ireland no harm - they are FDI competitors to us after all. Making Northern Ireland less attractive might have been a big plus point from Varadkar's point of view.

ancapailldorcha

Tea Shock wrote: »

The Irish government wouldn't say it out loud, but that does the Republic of Ireland no harm - they are FDI competitors to us after all. Making Northern Ireland less attractive might have been a big plus point from Varadkar's point of view.

Fair point but it essentially boils down to Westminster dealing an even worse hand to NI which voted to remain in the EU.

Imreoir2

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

On the four year recurring veto, that's surely a serious disincentive to potential investors to invest in one of the UK's most economically deprived regions, no?

To an extent, though any company thinking of investing somewhere in the UK (all else being equal) would surely prefer NI which may or may not fall out of the EU in 4 years over GB which already has fallen out of the EU.

Kermit.de.frog

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

By the way, the Financial Times has conducted an analysis and predicted a defeat of the new Withdrawal Bill by 3 votes:

As above, he faces greater problems than did May. I would expect a storied historian to know better. History might not repeat but it certainly rhymes.

Does he?

He has yet to start the charm offensive for rebels and converts.

I reckon it's going to pass.

Another factor here is going to be literally fatigue as well. This can make for easier pickings too.

Harry Palmr

Jasus Christ never let the audience of QT talk about Ireland.

prawnsambo

Fix Thy Foot! wrote: »

Boris, Trump. Putin.
they're all the same. it's just a game to them. there are no rules.
Alpha males who only really care about their egos.
the rest is just collateral damage.

By all accounts, the security briefings he got on no deal scared the bejesus out of him. All the talk about no deal stopped and a deal became imperative.

Tea Shock

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Jasus Christ never let the audience of QT talk about Ireland.

Yer man was a massive plank!

They haven't a clue. Got a text from a friend over there this evening saying he can't understand the DUP's problem - it prevents a hard border. They haven't a bog of a clue!

prawnsambo wrote: »

By all accounts, the security briefings he got on no deal scared the bejesus out of him. All the talk about no deal stopped and a deal became imperative.

Im pretty sure there were many aspects to it - not just security!

ancapailldorcha

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Does he?

He has yet to start the charm offensive for rebels and converts.

I reckon it's going to pass.

Another factor here is going to be literally fatigue as well. This can make for easier pickings too.

Johnson has been exposed for what he is. Any charm he had will only be effective on the already persuaded.

Either way, we are entering the final act. This will pass or it will fail. If the latter, an extension will be request to facilitate a GE and/or a People's Vote. Those are the only two ways forward that I can see.

theological

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

By the way, the Financial Times has conducted an analysis and predicted a defeat of the new Withdrawal Bill by 3 votes:

As above, he faces greater problems than did May. I would expect a storied historian to know better. History might not repeat but it certainly rhymes.

Why does he face more problems than May?
3 votes would be a much better margin than May.
19 Labour MPs defied Corbyn and wrote to Juncker to stress the urgency for a deal with Johnson recently. There's a chance of potential there.

Your underestimating the lethargy of the British public on this issue and the frustration of many that it isn't done.

ancapailldorcha

theological wrote: »

Why does he face more problems than May?
3 votes would be a much better margin than May.
19 Labour MPs defied Corbyn and wrote to Juncker to stress the urgency for a deal with Johnson recently. There's a chance of potential there.

Your underestimating the lethargy of the British public on this issue and the frustration of many that it isn't done.

The British public aren't voting, their MP's are and this is their job.

He faces more problems due to having fewer MP's. He's haemorrhaged MP's after trying to illegally prorogue Parliament.

With respect, a chance of potential means nothing. It's crunch time. Writing to Juncker would be futile. They have less than a fortnight and a deal to sign that nobody wants except for the faithful Brexiters who see that the whole Brexit project failing apart.

theological

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

The British public aren't voting, their MP's are and this is their job.

He faces more problems due to having fewer MP's. He's haemorrhaged MP's after trying to illegally prorogue Parliament.

With respect, a chance of potential means nothing. It's crunch time. Writing to Juncker would be futile. They have less than a fortnight and a deal to sign that nobody wants except for the faithful Brexiters who see that the whole Brexit project failing apart.

You've misunderstood me. Labour MPs wrote to Juncker last week in defiance of Corbyn.

More Labour MPs could easily vote for this. It's not correct to write it off. Most of the Conservatives who lost the whip are voting for Johnson on this so your analysis doesn't seem correct about more challenges. It looks easier for Johnson than for May here on the basis of the FT.

Water John

The solution for Johnson was provided by Dublin.
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/uk/brexit-why-liverpool-meeting-was-the-turning-point-1.4054437

He had no solution when he went to Liverpool and Varadkar threw him a lifeline.

jimmycrackcorm

lola85 wrote: »

3 years we finally got a deal they said on prime time??

May had a deal too???

Unless there is a revoke, this is the final deal that either gets accepted now or after an extension

ancapailldorcha

theological wrote: »

You've misunderstood me. Labour MPs wrote to Juncker last week in defiance of Corbyn.

More Labour MPs could easily vote for this. It's not correct to write it off. Most of the Conservatives who lost the whip are voting for Johnson on this so your analysis doesn't seem correct about more challenges. It looks easier for Johnson than for May here on the basis of the FT.

I'm not writing anything off. I'm just looking at probability. Any Labour MP voting for Johnson's deal will be seen as a traitor. Corbyn won't be going any time soon. It's one thing to contact Juncker, it's another to actually see this through. This does not concern me.

Joe_ Public

James cleverly on newsnight claiming Johnson had "achieved the impossible" by bringing back a deal. FFS! They could have got that deal 2 years ago except for stupid red lines.

And hark at the erg guy who said it was the threat of no deal that got them over the line. Alistair Burt quickly put him right in that it was the opposite that happened. How insane are these people?

Westernyelp

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

On the four year recurring veto, that's surely a serious disincentive to potential investors to invest in one of the UK's most economically deprived regions, no?

And therefore a strong incentive for the electorate to row in behind moderate parties. with luck creating a virtuous circle.

Joe_ Public

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I'm not writing anything off. I'm just looking at probability. Any Labour MP voting for Johnson's deal will be seen as a traitor. Corbyn won't be going any time soon. It's one thing to contact Juncker, it's another to actually see this through. This does not concern me.

Keir Starmer says there will be 3 line whip and my understanding is anyone who defies that then cannot be a party candidate for next election. If that is case, it should concentrate minds somewhat.

prawnsambo

theological wrote: »

You've misunderstood me. Labour MPs wrote to Juncker last week in defiance of Corbyn.

More Labour MPs could easily vote for this. It's not correct to write it off. Most of the Conservatives who lost the whip are voting for Johnson on this so your analysis doesn't seem correct about more challenges. It looks easier for Johnson than for May here on the basis of the FT.

Yeah, I'd be wary of some of the voting predictions being made on the likes of Sky. They're basing it on who voted for May's deal and that paradigm doesn't hold any more. There's a fatigue factor, there's a sense that this deal is the best they'll get after two goes at it. Labour MPs might not vote for it, but some could abstain. And the Kate Hoeys don't give a hoot what Corbyn says. It won't take many to turn this around.

dublinman1990

Naomi Long MEP of The Alliance Party had said to Tracy McGee on View from Stormont that BJ could into to the HoC to make announcements & a vote among MPs for a confirmatory referendum, i.e. a people's vote, to be held when parliament is in session on Saturday. I don't think that will happen because the UK still has to put up special legislation before parliament for another referendum on Brexit which could be months away if the HoC hypothetically votes for BJ to ask for another extension on Saturday. If the extension goes ahead by then after Saturday; a snap election will have to take place first in the UK before any talk of a referendum is etched of the minds of the British electorate.

MrMusician18

In this thread there seems to be a bit of wishful thinking depending on what side of the argument you're coming from. The hard remainers here think it will be defeated and the few leavers think it will pass.

The truth is, at the moment it's too close to call. If labour can manage to impose discipline it will fall if they don't it could pass in relative comfort.

If I were a betting man, I've a feeling he'll shade it. That said I've been wrong with the vast majority of my predictions thus far.

If Johnson gets it passed and subsequently wins a big majority (as would seem likely), the UK will deserve everything that the Tories deliver to them.

joe40

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

By the way, the Financial Times has conducted an analysis and predicted a defeat of the new Withdrawal Bill by 3 votes:

As above, he faces greater problems than did May. I would expect a storied historian to know better. History might not repeat but it certainly rhymes.

From that graphic if Johnson manages to get 2 more labour MPs his deal will pass. Saturday will be interesting